Around the world, major cities have been setting targets to combat the negative effects of local transport on public health, local pollution, noise levels, and GHG emissions. Sustainable mobility plans are counting on heavy investments in public transportation and biking infrastructure to compensate for the loss of personal vehicle mobility. However, Navigant Research believes that three key trends—automated vehicles, cleaner powertrains, and the mobility as a service (MaaS) model—could make personal passenger car use compatible with cities’ sustainability plans.
Highly automated driving is expected to debut by 2020 and start to grow rapidly as soon as 2025. This technological change will bring about shifts in the economics, convenience, and safety of personal mobility and will drive the move toward on-demand automated vehicle services. If coordinated as part of a multimodal transportation ecosystem, this shift could lead to reduced traffic congestion in cities, lowered demand for parking spaces, and beneficial energy and environmental impacts. Moreover, there are clear synergies between automation and electrification (both for battery electric and fuel cell powertrains). Automated on-demand fleets that run on these clean powertrains could be competitive with or cheaper than other transportation options available today, driving consumers toward MaaS.
This Navigant Research white paper examines the key trends in personal mobility and their major impacts on the environmental footprint of urban mobility, city planning, and transportation planning. Navigant Research developed a potential scenario of the impacts from the high level adoption of automated vehicles in a model city with 3 million inhabitants, collectively owning 1.5 million cars, to explore and quantify impacts. The white paper further outlines the critical issues related to the mobility service revolution that need to be addressed from the perspective of the chief stakeholder groups and provides a set of recommendations for each group.
Key Questions Addressed:
- What do the prospects of automation, mobility as a service (MaaS), and clean powertrains mean for urban mobility?
- What are the highlights of each of the implementation stages, from early competition to high adoption?
- What are the impacts of the high adoption of clean, automated MaaS on total vehicles in a city, parking needs, energy needs, and reclaimed public land?
- How will key stakeholders—city planners, automakers and mobility services companies, and utilities and energy providers—be affected by these developments?
- What actions do these stakeholders need to take to be prepared for these developments?
Who needs this report?
- Automobile manufacturers
- Automated vehicle technology suppliers
- Mobility as a service (MaaS) providers
- Utilities and energy companies
- Parking operators
- City planners and regulators
- Investor community
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary
1.1 The Push for Clean, Traffic Jam-Free Cities
1.2 The Coming Age of Automated Vehicles
1.3 Redefining Urban Transformation
1.4 A Bright Future Is Not Inevitable
2. The Future Mobility Nexus: Clean, Connected, Shared, and Automated
2.1 Automated Vehicles
2.2 Ride-Hailing, Ridesharing, and MaaS
2.3 The Choice of Powertrains
3. Impacts of the Automated Vehicles and Mobility Services Nexus
3.1 The Model City
3.2 Societal Impacts
3.2.1 Fewer Cars but Potential Competition for Public Transport
3.2.2 Reclaiming Valuable Real Estate
3.3 Energy and Environmental Impacts
3.3.1 More Efficient Fleets Requiring Infrastructure Investments
3.3.2 Clean Fleets Improve Local Air Quality
3.3.3 Increasing Climate Resilience for Vulnerable Groups
3.4 Commercial Impacts
4. Step-by-Step toward Mobility Transformation: A Vision for the Model City
4.1 The Pilot Phase
4.2 The Competition Phase
4.3 The High Adoption Phase
5. Recommendations for Key Stakeholders
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List
8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
List of Charts and Figures
- Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020-2035
- Estimated LDV Sales by Powertrain, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
- Energy Efficiency of LDVs for Different Powertrains: 2010-2050
- GHG Emissions Vehicle Efficiency for Different Powertrains
- Total Vehicle Population Delta
- Public Parking Spaces Delta
- Value of Retained Public Land
- Demand for Energy Carriers Delta
- Impacts of Driving Automation, Connectivity, and MaaS in a Model City
- Automated Driving Technology Progression
- Oakland Coliseum and Oracle Arena