Navigant Research » Smart Energy

Market Data: Biomass Power Generation

ejohnson — Tue, 21 May 2013 23:53:29 +0000

Accounting for 3% of global electricity generation capacity, biomass power generation (“biopower”) offers reliable baseload power to the grid and is expected to play a cornerstone role in meeting renewable energy targets worldwide. Capacity expansion is likely in this decade across a range of conversion platforms, including dedicated greenfield facilities that burn biomass exclusively, brownfield biomass and coal co-fired plants, anaerobic digesters producing biogas, and industrial biorefineries utilizing cogeneration. Although biomass feedstocks are available worldwide, logistical challenges associated with its collection, aggregation, transportation, and handling, coupled with its poor energy density relative to fossil fuels, make biopower financially attractive in only a narrow set of circumstances. For this reason, biopower remains a subsidy-dependent enterprise in most markets.

Supported by strong policy and healthy incentives, Europe currently accounts for 50% of installed capacity deployed worldwide. Capacity additions across Asia Pacific and Latin America through 2020 are expected to result in a modest shift away from Europe. Growth in North America is contingent upon the anticipated rollout of advanced biorefineries for advanced biofuels production. Navigant Research forecasts that, under an aggressive scenario, global installed biopower capacity will reach 129 GW by 2020.

This Navigant Research report provides capacity and revenue forecasts, market sizing, and market share analysis for electricity production from biomass, covering dedicated/co-fired, anaerobic digestion, and biorefinery facilities. The report also quantifies the expected supply of electricity from biomass and the amount of feedstock consumed at generation facilities on an annual basis. Worldwide revenue and capacity forecasts, segmented by application and region, extend through 2020.

Key Questions Addressed:

How many gigawatts of electricity generation from biomass will be installed through 2020?
Which regions and key markets offer the greatest potential for electricity production from biomass?
What is the expected electricity supply from installed biopower facilities?
How much biomass feedstock will be consumed annually for electricity generation?
Which industrial applications will generate the most annual revenue from biopower production?

Who needs this report?

Feedstock growers and suppliers
Private timber companies and wood processors
Biomass handling and pre-processers
Utilities
Industrial processors
Biorefinery producers
Biomass feedstock traders
Biomass conversion equipment manufacturers
Engineering, procurement, and construction companies
Government agencies and policymakers
Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1 Market Overview

1.2 Market Forecasts

2. Data Assumptions

2.1 Background

2.2 Role of Biopower in the Global Energy Mix

2.3 Biopower Segmentation

2.4 Methodology

2.5 Biorefinery Deployments

2.6 Policy Assumptions

2.7 Key Inflection Points

3. Market Forecasts

3.1 Forecast Assumptions

3.2 Biopower Forecasts by Scenario

3.2.1 Conservative Forecast

3.2.2 Aggressive Forecast

3.3 Biopower Forecasts by Segment

3.3.1 Dedicated and Co-Fired Biopower Segment

3.3.2 Anaerobic Digestion Biopower Segment

3.3.3 Biorefinery Cogeneration Segment

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List
5. Table of Contents
6. Table of Charts and Figures
7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

Share of Installed Biopower Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2012
Installed Biopower Capacity by Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Installed Biopower Capacity by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Annual New Biopower Revenue by Segment, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Installed Biopower Capacity by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Annual New Biopower Revenue by Segment, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Installed Dedicated and Co-Fired Generation Capacity by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Installed Anaerobic Digestion Generation Capacity by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Installed Biorefinery Cogeneration Capacity by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020

List of Tables

Biopower Market Segments
Biomass Power and Thermal Policy Targets, World Markets: 2012
Assumptions Contributing to Aggressive Biopower Forecasts
Installed Biopower Capacity, World Markets: 2008-2012
Installed Biopower Capacity by Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Installed Biopower Capacity by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Installed Dedicated and Co-Fired Generation Capacity by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Installed Anaerobic Digestion Generation Capacity by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2013‑2020
Installed Biorefinery Cogeneration Generation Capacity by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Installed Biopower Capacity by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Installed Dedicated and Co-Fired Generation Capacity by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Installed Anaerobic Digestion Generation Capacity by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Installed Biorefinery Generation Capacity by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Annual Biopower Generation by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Annual Biopower Generation by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Annual Dry Biomass Feedstock Consumed for Electricity Generation by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Annual Dry Biomass Consumed for Electricity Generation by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2013‑2020
Annual New Biopower Revenue by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Annual New Biopower Revenue by Segment, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Annual New Biopower Revenue by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Annual New Biopower Revenue by Segment, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020

Wind Forecasting and Data Analytics

ejohnson — Tue, 21 May 2013 23:39:17 +0000

Following years of record growth throughout world markets, wind is now a mature source of commercial power generation, providing ever-larger percentages of clean energy generation. Wind forecasting practices and technologies are a key element of this rapid deployment of wind plants, and also help provide a solution to the increasing need for variable wind generation to integrate effectively on the larger power grid.

Revolutionary changes are underway within the wind forecasting market, with the growing adoption of remote sensing technologies – including sound detection and ranging (sodar) and light detection and ranging (lidar) – that augment traditional meteorological (met) towers and anemometry. As turbine hub heights rise to 100 meters, standard met towers alone will not suffice for the rigorous early stage site assessment campaigns that are the catalyst for eventual construction of a wind plant. Navigant Research forecasts that annual revenue from met towers and remote sensing devices for wind forecasting will surpass $300 million by 2020.

This Navigant Research report examines the market for remote sensing devices and met towers for wind forecasting, as well as disruptive remote sensing-based wind turbine control technology. Market drivers and barriers, along with key technology issues, are examined in detail, and profiles of key industry players, including hardware and service providers, are included. The report also provides market forecasts for demand for and revenue from wind forecasting technologies, segmented by region, through 2020.

Key Questions Addressed:

What are the main uses and best practices for wind forecasting?
What are the key differences in practice and hardware use for site assessment forecasting and permanent forecasting at an operational wind plant?
How are wind forecasting technologies evolving?
How are grid operators calling upon forecasting to better integrate wind energy?
How does wind forecasting fit within the broader context of centralized grids, utilities, and traditional generation resources?
How are remote sensing technologies revolutionizing forecasting?
Who are the major companies providing meteorological hardware and remote sensing devices and what are the major competitive dynamics in that marketplace?
What are the expected growth rates and revenue expectations for those hardware suppliers?

Who needs this report?

Electric utilities
Electricity grid operators / balancing authorities
Manufacturers of high-tech sensors and data acquisition equipment
Manufacturers of wind turbine control systems
Meteorological hardware manufacturers, software vendors, and consultancies
Renewable energy project developers
Government agencies
Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1 Wind Energy Overview

1.2 Wind Forecasting and Data Analytics Overview

1.2.1 Project Site Assessment

1.2.2 Wind Forecasting Hardware Technologies

1.3 Wind Forecasting and Data Analytics Competitive Landscape

1.4 Wind Forecasting and Data Analytics Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues

2.1 Wind Forecasting Trends

2.2 Meteorological Tower Overview

2.2.1 Met Tower Deployment Dynamics: Before Versus After Construction

2.2.2 Current Met Tower Market Dynamics

2.3 Remote Sensing Overview

2.3.1 Sodar Devices

2.3.2 Lidar Devices

2.3.3 Competitive Market Dynamics of Remote Sensing

2.3.3.1 Hardware Providers Partnering to Offer Remote Sensing

2.3.4 Emerging Opportunities for Synergy

2.3.5 Turbine-Mounted Remote Sensing Systems

2.3.5.1 Remote Sensing for Wind Turbine Optimization

2.3.5.2 Remote Sensing for Wind Turbine SCADA Operations

2.4 Market Drivers for Wind Forecasting

2.4.1 Dramatic Growth in Global Wind Power Capacity

2.4.1.1 North America and Latin America

2.4.1.2 Europe

2.4.1.3 Asia Pacific

2.4.2 Substantial Grid Integration of Large Wind Capacity Additions

2.4.3 Mandates or Incentives for Wind Forecasting

2.4.4 Anemometer Loan Programs

2.5 Market Drivers for Grid Integration

2.5.1 Regions of the World Where Wind Generation Reaches Above 10%

2.5.2 More Accurate Power Scheduling

2.5.3 Nodal Transmission Markets in the United States

2.5.4 Market Signals and Wind Forecasting

2.5.5 Market-Based Incentives at RTO/ISO/TSOs

2.5.6 Active Real-Time Wind Turbine Control

3. Technology Issues

3.1 History of Meteorological Towers

3.1.1 Basic Principles

3.1.2 Commercial Time Horizon

3.1.3 Strengths and Weaknesses

3.1.3.1 Cost

3.1.3.2 Efficiency

3.1.3.3 Reliability

3.1.3.4 Scalability

3.1.3.5 Availability

3.2 History of Sodar Devices

3.2.1 Basic Principles

3.2.2 Commercial Time Horizon

3.2.3 Strengths and Weaknesses

3.2.3.1 Cost

3.2.3.2 Efficiency

3.2.3.3 Reliability

3.2.3.4 Scalability

3.2.3.5 Availability

3.3 History of Lidar Devices

3.3.1 Basic Principles

3.3.2 Commercial Time Horizon

3.3.3 Strengths and Weaknesses

3.3.3.1 Cost

3.3.3.2 Efficiency

3.3.3.3 Reliability

3.3.3.4 Scalability

3.3.3.5 Availability

3.4 Comparison of Key Wind Forecasting Technologies

4. Customer and Market Applications

4.1 Wind Project Developers (Pre-Construction)

4.2 Wind Project Operators (Post-Construction)

4.3 Offshore Wind – Remote Sensing

4.4 Wind Turbine OEMs Offering Wind Forecasting Services

4.5 Wind Turbine-Mounted Remote Sensing Devices

4.6 Utility Resource Planners and Managers

4.7 Independent Grid Operators

4.8 Energy Traders

5. Grid Operators and Central Forecasting

5.1 Centralized Wind Forecasting

5.1.1 United States – California Independent System Operator

5.1.2 United States – Electric Reliability Council of Texas

5.1.3 United States – Midwest Independent System Operator

5.1.4 Denmark – Energinet.dk

5.1.5 Spain – Red Eléctrica de España

5.1.6 China

5.1.7 India – Power Grid Corporation of India

6. Key Industry Players

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Hardware Providers

6.2.1 Large Hardware Providers

6.2.1.1 Campbell Scientific

6.2.1.2 FT Technologies

6.2.1.3 Leosphere

6.2.1.4 Lockheed Martin

6.2.1.5 NRG Systems

6.2.1.6 Second Wind

6.2.2 Smaller Hardware Providers

6.2.2.1 Atmospheric Systems Corp.

6.2.2.2 Fred Olsen Ltd. (Natural Power, ZephIR Lidar)

6.2.2.3 Pentalum Technologies

6.2.2.4 Windar Photonics A/S

6.2.3 Other Hardware Providers

6.3 Service Providers

6.3.1 Large Service Providers

6.3.1.1 AWS Truepower

6.3.2 Smaller Service Providers

6.3.2.1 Chinook Wind

6.3.2.2 Energy & Meteo Systems

6.3.2.3 GL Garrad Hassan

6.3.2.4 Global Weather Corp.

6.3.2.5 Mistaya Engineering Inc. (Windographer)

6.3.2.6 V-Bar

6.3.2.7 WindLogics

6.3.3 Other Service Providers

7. Market Forecasts

7.1 Methodology and Forecast Modeling Assumptions

7.1.1 Forecast Modeling Assumptions: Impact of U.S. Policy Cycle

7.1.2 Forecast Modeling Assumptions: Typical Wind Plant Size and Met Tower Use

7.1.2.1 Met Tower Use for Pre-Construction Site Assessment

7.1.2.2 Met Tower Use for Permanent Post-Construction Site Assessment

7.2 Global Wind Power Capacity

7.3 Global Site Assessment Met Tower Demand

7.4 Global Permanent Met Tower Demand

7.5 Global Remote Sensing Demand

7.5.1 Global Sodar Device Demand

7.5.2 Global Lidar Device Demand

7.6 Global Combined Met Tower, Sodar, and Lidar Remote Sensing Revenue

7.6.1 Global Combined Site Assessment and Permanent Met Tower Revenue

7.6.1.1 Global Site Assessment Met Tower Revenue

7.6.1.2 Global Permanent Met Tower Revenue

7.6.2 Sodar Device Revenue

7.6.3 Lidar Device Revenue

7.7 Conclusions and Recommendations

7.7.1 Disruptive Market Potential: Turbine-Mounted Remote Sensing

8. Company Directory
9. Acronym and Abbreviation List
10. Table of Contents
11. Table of Charts and Figures
12. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

Installed Wind Power Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2012‑2020
Site Assessment Met Tower Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Permanent Met Tower Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012‑2020
Sodar Device Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Lidar Device Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Combined Met Tower and Remote Sensing Device Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Combined Site Assessment and Permanent Tower Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Site Assessment Met Tower Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Permanent Met Tower Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Sodar Device Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Lidar Device Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Met Tower Halfway Through Tilt-Up Installation Phase
Remote Sensing Providing Measurement Above a 60-Meter Tower
Typical Sodar Device
Typical Lidar Device
Turbine-Mounted Remote Sensing for Wind Turbine Optimization
Annual and Cumulative Wind Energy Development, World Markets: 1983-2012
Anemometer Wind Sensor
Lattice-Style Tower Designed For Fixed Operational Use
Fully Enclosed/Securitized and Trailered Sodar Station
Typical Lidar Device
Example of a Floating Lidar Station – WindSentinal by Axys Technologies
Example of a Lidar Designed for Forward-looking Wind Turbine Control

List of Tables

Sample of States with Anemometer Loan Programs, United States
Met Tower SWOT Analysis
Sodar Device SWOT Analysis
Lidar Device SWOT Analysis
Key Wind Forecasting Technologies
Campbell Scientific SWOT Analysis
FT Technologies SWOT Analysis
Leosphere SWOT Analysis
Lockheed Martin SWOT Analysis
NRG Systems SWOT Analysis
Second Wind SWOT Analysis
Other Hardware Providers
AWS Truepower SWOT Analysis
Other Service Providers
Installed Wind Power Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Site Assessment Met Tower Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Permanent Met Tower Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012‑2020
Site Assessment Met Tower Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Permanent Met Tower Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Combined Site Assessment and Permanent Tower Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Sodar Device Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Lidar Device Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Sodar Device Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Lidar Device Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Combined Met Tower and Remote Sensing Device Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Combined Met Tower and Remote Sensing Device Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020

Microgrid Deployment Tracker 2Q13

ejohnson — Thu, 16 May 2013 19:29:33 +0000

Most microgrids in operation today are, in essence, retrofit projects that cobble together existing assets and derive revenue from an overlay of controls used to enable legacy technology (consisting of the majority of the assets within the microgrid) to talk to new technology (usually small amounts of solar PV or a new advanced energy storage unit). Today, however, microgrids are beginning to move more into the mainstream. The result is a microgrid market that is much more robust than it was only 4 years ago. New vendors keep entering this space and previously undiscovered projects keep coming to the fore.

As of 2Q 2013, Navigant Research has identified a total of 3,793 MW of total microgrid capacity throughout the world, up from 3,179 MW in the previous tracker update in 4Q 2012. North America is still the world’s leading market for microgrids, with a planned, proposed, and deployed capacity of 2,505 MW, representing 66% of the global capacity. This represents an additional 55 projects since the 4Q 2012 update, and an additional 417 MW. Of the total North American microgrid capacity, 1,459 MW is currently online and over 1,122 MW is in the planned/under development or proposed phase.

This Navigant Research tracker report provides data on known microgrid projects in the proposal, planning, and deployed stages, including details on the various technologies employed in individual projects. The tracker includes specific information on the capacity of the following generation assets: diesel, combined heat and power, solar photovoltaic, wind, and fuel cells. It also details the rated capacity, duration, and types of energy storage for each project. The database is also segmented by world region.

Key Questions Addressed:

How many microgrids are up and running, and where are they located?
What projects are in the planning and proposal stage?
What types of power generation are being deployed in today’s microgrids?
What types of energy storage – and at what scale – are being deployed in grid-tied and remote microgrids?
Which vendors are developing projects, and where are the projects located?
What is the rated capacity, duration, and type of energy storage associated with each microgrid project?

Who needs this report?

Microgrid developers
Microgrid component vendors
Large technology companies
Utilities
Government agencies and policymakers
Investor community

1. Methodology and Data Insights

1.1 Introduction to Navigant Research’s Microgrid Deployment Tracker

1.2 Methodology

1.3 Segmentation Rationale

1.4 Important Caveats Regarding the Microgrid Deployment Tracker

1.5 2Q 2013 Update Insights

2. Acronym and Abbreviation List
3. Table of Contents
4. Table of Charts and Figures
5. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology

List of Charts and Figures

Total Microgrid Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2Q 2013
Total Microgrid Capacity by Segment, World Markets: 2Q 2013
Total Capacity of Microgrids in Operation by Segment, World Markets: 2Q 2013
Current Operating Microgrid Market Share by Region, World Markets: 2Q 2013
Planned/Proposed Microgrid Market Share by Region, World Markets: 2Q 2013

List of Tables

Microgrid Projects, North America: 2Q 2013
Microgrid Projects, Europe: 2Q 2013
Microgrid Projects, Asia Pacific: 2Q 2013
Microgrid Projects, Rest of World: 2Q 2013
Microgrid Projects, Commercial/Industrial Segment: 2Q 2013
Microgrid Projects, Community/Utility Segment: 2Q 2013
Microgrid Projects, Institutional/Campus Environment Segment: 2Q 2013
Microgrid Projects, Military Segment: 2Q 2013
Microgrid Projects, Remote Systems Segment: 2Q 2013
Microgrid Projects, All Regions, All Segments: 2Q 2013
Total Microgrid Capacity by Region, World Markets: 4Q 2012 and 2Q 2013
Total Number of Microgrid Projects by Region, World Markets: 4Q 2012 and 2Q 2013
Total Microgrid Capacity by Segment, World Markets: 4Q 2012 and 2Q 2013
Total Number of Microgrid Projects by Segment, World Markets: 4Q 2012 and 2Q 2013

Navigant Research Leaderboard Report: Lithium Ion Batteries for Stationary Energy Storage

Alexandria Davis — Thu, 18 Apr 2013 20:58:00 +0000

The lithium ion (Li-ion) battery industry has gone from one crisis to the next, including lower than expected sales in the electric vehicle segment as well as safety incidents that have damaged the technology’s reputation. As a result, the vendor landscape has consolidated, leading to bankruptcies, factory closings, and a general investor pullback. Nevertheless, the market is still crowded with dozens of players, all of whom are competing to remain viable in this promising but challenging sector.

The contract wins are coming for Li-ion vendors, although not soon enough or at large enough scales to keep all of the market participants afloat. The coming years will be crucial for each of the major players. Those that have established a viable strategy, and are capable of executing that strategy, should be able to flourish once the marketplace matures. Navigant Research forecasts that the Li-ion stationary energy storage market will grow from 27 MW of global installed capacity in 2013 to 1,753 MW in 2022.

This Navigant Research Leaderboard Report examines the strategy and execution of 16 Li-ion vendors that are active in the stationary energy storage market and rates them on 12 criteria, including systems integration, safety engineering, chemistry performance, geographic reach, manufacturing and product performance, pricing, and overall corporate financial health. Using Navigant Research’s proprietary Leaderboard methodology, vendors are profiled, rated, and ranked with the goal of providing industry participants with an objective assessment of these companies’ relative strengths and weaknesses in the global Li-ion market.

Top 10 Vendors:

1. LG Chem

2. Johnson Controls Inc.

3. Samsung SDI

4. Lishen

5. Hitachi

6. Microvast

7. Toshiba

8. Saft

9. GS Yuasa

10. Panasonic

Key Questions Addressed:

Who are the leaders in providing lithium ion batteries for stationary energy storage applications?
What are the key metrics used to evaluate market performance in the Li-ion industry?
How is the Li-ion industry reacting to challenging market conditions?
How does safety engineering, or the lack thereof, influence competition in the Li-ion industry?
Which market participants are performing at a low enough level that their future existence is in doubt?
How do the pricing, geographic reach, and go-to market strategies of the leading companies in this market compare?

Who needs this report?

Lithium ion battery vendors
Lithium ion stationary energy storage system purchasers
Energy storage vendors
Electric utilities
Systems integrators
Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1 Market Introduction

1.2 Criteria Overview

1.3 The Navigant Research Leaderboard Grid

2. Market Overview

2.1 Overview

2.2 Market Definition

2.2.1 Li-ion Chemistries

2.3 Market Drivers

2.4 Market Barriers

2.5 Market Trends

3. The Navigant Research Leaderboard

3.1 Navigant Research Leaderboard Categories

3.1.1 Leaders

3.1.2 Contenders

3.1.3 Challengers

3.1.4 Followers

3.2 The Navigant Research Leaderboard Grid

4. Company Rankings and Profiles

4.1 Leaders

4.1.1 LG Chem

4.1.2 Johnson Controls Inc.

4.2 Contenders

4.2.1 Samsung SDI

4.2.2 Lishen

4.2.3 Hitachi

4.2.4 Microvast

4.3 Challengers

4.3.1 Toshiba

4.3.2 Saft

4.3.3 GS Yuasa

4.3.4 Panasonic

4.3.5 BYD

4.4 Followers

4.4.1 Dow Kokam

4.4.2 Thunder Sky

4.4.3 A123 Systems

4.4.4 Boston Power

4.4.5 Electrovaya

5. Company Directory
6. Acronym and Abbreviation List
7. Table of Contents
8. Table of Charts and Figures
9. Scope of Study and Methodology

9.1 Scope of Study

9.2 Sources and Methodology

9.2.1 Vendor Selection

9.2.2 Ratings Scale

9.2.2.1 Score Calculations

9.2.3 Criteria Definitions

9.2.3.1 Strategy

9.2.3.2 Execution

List of Charts and Figures

The Navigant Research Leaderboard Grid
Lithium Ion Price Reduction Forecast by Sub-Chemistry Type, World Markets: 2013 and 2015
LG Chem Strategy and Execution Scores
Johnson Controls Inc. Strategy and Execution Scores
Samsung SDI Strategy and Execution Scores
Lishen Strategy and Execution Scores
Hitachi Strategy and Execution Scores
Microvast Strategy and Execution Scores
Toshiba Strategy and Execution Scores
Saft Strategy and Execution Scores
GS Yuasa Strategy and Execution Scores
Panasonic Strategy and Execution Scores
BYD Strategy and Execution Scores
Dow Kokam Strategy and Execution Scores
Thunder Sky Strategy and Execution Scores
A123 Systems Strategy and Execution Scores
Boston Power Strategy and Execution Scores
Electrovaya Strategy and Execution Scores

List of Tables

Lithium Ion Price Reduction Forecast by Sub-Chemistry Type, World Markets: 2013 and 2015
Navigant Research Leaderboard Overall Scores
Vendor Scores
Vendor Scores on Strategy Criteria
Vendor Scores on Execution Criteria

Distributed Solar Energy Generation

ejohnson — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 20:01:05 +0000

Distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems offer the benefit of producing electricity onsite, thereby reducing the need to build new transmission capacity and avoiding line losses. Distributed generation can offer significant benefits to consumers while adding resiliency to an electric grid based on a traditional centralized model. These systems are used in applications ranging from residential to small commercial to industrial use. Though this market is still primarily driven by government incentives, distributed solar PV will continue its steady march toward grid parity in major markets over the next few years.

The global distributed solar photovoltaic market contracted slightly in 2012, due to reduced market activity in Italy and Germany. However, growth in the United States, China, Japan, and other countries continued, driven by solar PV module price reductions, the growth of third-party financing models, and feed-in tariffs. Navigant Research forecasts that, from 2013 to 2018, 220 GW of distributed solar PV will be installed worldwide, representing $540.3 billion in revenue.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global market for distributed solar PV systems less than 1 MW in capacity and provides an assessment of the most important market drivers, technology trends, and challenges faced by the growing distributed solar PV industry. Forecasts for average installed prices and annual installations, segmented by region, extend through 2018.

Key Questions Addressed:

Which countries will lead in distributed solar PV development over the next 6 years – and why?
What is the current status and outlook for distributed solar PV financial incentives?
How much does it cost to install distributed solar PV in major markets?
How is technological innovation playing a role in the development of the distributed solar PV industry?
What key barriers and opportunities will shape the distributed solar PV market?
How much capital will be invested in total distributed solar PV installations by 2018?
What is the forecast through 2018 for annual distributed solar PV installations, in terms of capacity, broken down by region?
How will average prices for distributed solar PV change over the next 4 years?

Who needs this report?

Solar PV module and component manufacturers
Solar PV industry service providers
Renewable energy technology suppliers
Renewable energy project developers
Utilities
Economic development agencies
Government agencies and regulators
Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1 Distributed Solar PV Market Overview and Key Trends

1.2 Key Trends in Distributed Solar Energy Generation

1.2.1 Distributed Solar PV Systems Forecast

2. Market Issues

2.1 Defining Distributed Solar Energy Generation

2.2 Distributed Solar PV Market Overview and Key Trends

2.2.1 Distributed Generation Can Still Mean Thinking Big

2.2.2 Distributed Solar Gains Public and Political Traction versus Centralized Solar

2.2.3 Solar PV Reaching Grid Parity

2.3 Market Drivers and Legislative / Regulatory Mandates

2.3.1 Financial Incentives, Public Policies, and Trade Wars

2.3.1.1 FITs

2.3.1.1.1. North America

2.3.1.1.2. Europe

2.3.1.1.3. Asia Pacific

2.3.2 Net Metering Policies

2.3.3 Renewable Energy Certificates

2.3.4 Utility Asset Ownership Models

2.3.5 Residential and Commercial Solar PV Leases and Power Purchase Agreements

2.4 Implementation Issues

2.4.1 Grid Interconnection

2.4.2 Standards and Permitting

2.4.3 Utilities’ Fear of Higher Penetration of Renewables

3. Technology Trends

3.1 PV Module Oversupply Leads to Significant Price Reductions

3.2 Inverter and Balance of System Price Declines

3.3 Technology Trend: Microinverters, AC Modules, and DC Optimizers

3.3.1 Microinverters and AC Panels

3.3.2 DC Optimizers

4. Market Forecasts

4.1 Distributed Solar PV Systems

4.1.1 North America

4.1.2 European Union

4.1.3 Asia Pacific

4.1.4 Rest of World

5. Company Directory
6. Acronym and Abbreviation List
7. Table of Contents
8. Table of Charts and Figures
9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

Comparing Current Status of Distributed Solar PV and Centralized Solar Projects in California
Solar PV Cheaper than Grid Electricity in Southern Germany
German Utility Meets More than 100% of Load with Solar and Wind on May 8, 2011
Cost Comparison of Residential Solar PV Installation Costs, United States and Germany: 2011
Module-Level Power Management
Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2010-2012
Annual Solar PV System Installed Capacity by System Size, Germany: 2010-2012
Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by Segment, United States: 2010-2012E
Distributed Solar PV System Prices (Non-Weighted Average) by Component, World Markets: 2006-2018
Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Country, North America: 2012-2018
Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Country, Leading European Countries: 2012-2018
Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Country, Asia Pacific: 2012-2018
Average Distributed Solar PV System Installed Price by Region, World Markets: 2010-2018

List of Tables

Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2009-2018
Distributed Energy Generation Technology Comparison: 2012
Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Country, World Markets: 2009-2018
Distributed Solar PV System Prices (Non-Weighted Average) by Component, World Markets: 2006-2018
Average Distributed Solar PV Installed Price by Region, World Markets: 2009-2018
Annual Distributed Solar PV Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2009-2018
Cumulative Solar PV Installed Systems and Capacity by System Size, Italy: 2010 and 2011
Annual Solar PV Installed Systems and Capacity by System Size, Italy: 2011
Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by State and System Size, Germany: 2012
Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by State and System Size, Germany: 2011
Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by State and System Size, Germany: 2010
Quarterly Solar PV Installed Capacity by Segment, United States: 2010-2012E
Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by Segment, United States: 2010-2012E
Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity Market Share by Segment, United States: 2008-2012E

Solar and Electric Vehicle Cross-Marketing Strategies

ejohnson — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 03:24:17 +0000

The number of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) on roadways will grow rapidly to more than 3,000,000 globally by 2017. Most PEV owners pay attention to the nature of the power that charges their vehicles, preferring clean renewable power such as solar. These customers are prime targets for residential solar installers, as many PEV owners own homes that can accommodate a sufficiently sizable solar array to generate all of the power that their vehicles would consume on an annual basis.

Automotive companies have marketing budgets that far surpass the reach of the smaller and more regional solar installation companies. By collaborating, solar and PEV companies have the potential to expand both of their markets by reducing the combined installation costs of vehicle charging equipment and solar panels by sharing equipment and electrical contracting expenses. Together, these two industries can provide a complete solution that enables emissions-free driving as well as clean, low-cost electricity.

This Navigant Research report details the strategies that solar companies and PEV manufacturers can adopt to grow their markets, by explaining the immediate and long-term financial benefits of replacing fossil fuels with carbon-free electrons for both home and transportation energy. The report outlines the technical and financial background data needed to create compelling consumer outreach and the collaborative programs that PEV and solar PV sellers can develop to make solar and PEVs more affordable and cost-effective for consumers and fleet operators.

Key Questions Addressed:

How can the solar and PEV industries benefit by working together?
What programs can be developed to increase interest in home EV charging using solar?
How are PEV manufacturers currently using solar power to increase the marketability of their vehicles?
What are PEV owner attitudes toward solar power?
How large will the market for PEVs become through 2020?
How can PEV owners use solar PV to reduce their monthly electricity costs?

Who needs this report?

Solar manufacturers
Automotive manufacturers
Solar installation and financing companies
EV charging equipment manufacturers
Investor community

1. Executive Summary

2. EV Market Factors Creating New Opportunities

2.1 Light Bulb Moment for Customers

2.1.1 Environmental Concerns

2.1.2 Economic Concerns

2.2 Unprecedented Scale for Marketing Solar

2.3 Cost Savings with Combined Installation

2.4 Common Challenges and Potential Solutions

2.5 Visible Commercial Solar As Marketing Opportunity for Green Companies

2.6 EV Charging Without the Grid

2.7 Homework Required

2.7.1 EVSE Equipment and Levels of Charging

2.7.2 Vehicles on the Market

2.7.3 Utility Rates

2.7.4 Incentives

2.7.5 EV Charging Networks and Applications

2.8 Gateway to Total Home-Vehicle Management Solutions

3. Conclusions and Recommendations

3.1 Get Smart About EVs

3.2 Develop Turnkey Solutions

3.3 Think Long-Term

3.4 Form Strategic Partnerships

3.5 Get an Early Start on Innovation

List of Charts

Cumulative Plug-in Electric Vehicle Sales by Vehicle Type, World Markets: 2013-2020
Public EV Charging Station Unit Sales by Region, United States and World Markets: 2013-2020
V2H Infrastructure Investment by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020

Market Data: Biofuels

Alexandria Davis — Sun, 24 Mar 2013 05:25:05 +0000

Biofuels are becoming big policy and big business as countries around the world look to decrease petroleum dependence, reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transportation sector, and support agricultural interests. After more than a decade of healthy growth for conventional biofuels like ethanol and biodiesel, the next wave of advanced biofuels is currently on the cusp of commercial scale-up. Cellulosic ethanol, biobutanol, biodiesel, green diesel, synthetic gasoline, and renewable jet fuel are among the emerging class of advanced biofuels poised for growth this decade.

Conventional and advanced biofuels both face a number of headwinds, however, that will cause production to miss policy targets currently in place in more than 65 countries and territories. Navigant Research forecasts that global biofuels production will reach 61 billion gallons by 2023, replacing nearly 6% of global transportation fuel production from fossil sources and generating $70 billion in new revenue over the next decade. Leading this expansion will be advanced drop-in biofuels production, with a compound annual growth rate of 14% between 2013 and 2023. The United States, Brazil, and the countries of the European Union are expected to remain the leading biofuels markets worldwide.

This Navigant Research report provides forecasts, market sizing, and market share analysis for conventional ethanol, advanced ethanol, biobutanol, biodiesel, green diesel, synthetic gasoline, and renewable jet fuel. The report also includes comprehensive data and forecasts for biofuels blending and supply-oriented policies. The total volume of biofuels produced by fuel type and market penetration in retail fuel markets is forecast through 2023, segmented by world region and key countries or sub-regions.

Key Questions Addressed:

How large a global market for ethanol, biodiesel and advanced biofuels will be created by current and proposed blending and supply targets?
How many gallons of biofuels will be produced over the next decade?
What regions and key markets offer the greatest potential for biofuels production?
Which advanced biofuel pathways are expected to scale up fastest over the next decade?
How much petroleum-based fuel demand are biofuels expected to offset in the gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel pools?
Which conventional and advanced biofuels pathways will generate the most revenue over the next decade?

Who needs this report?

Feedstock growers and suppliers
Biofuel producers
Petroleum producers and refiners
Engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) companies
Commercial airlines
Military agencies
Industry associations
Government agencies and policymakers
Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1 Market Overview

1.2 Market Forecasts

1.2.1 Policy Forecasts

1.2.2 Production Forecasts

1.3 Regional Market Share

2. Biofuels Policy Forecasts

2.1 Overview

2.2 Blending Mandates

2.2.1 Ethanol Blending Mandates

2.2.2 Biodiesel Blending Mandates

2.2.3 Biofuel Blending Mandates

2.3 Supply Mandates

2.4 Comparing Policy Instruments

3. Biofuels Production Forecasts

3.1 Overview

3.2 Forecast Assumptions

3.3 Biofuel Production Forecasts

3.3.1 Gasoline Pool

3.3.2 Diesel Pool

3.3.3 Jet Fuel Pool

3.4 Regional Biofuels Production Forecasts

3.5 Conclusions and Recommendations

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List
5. Table of Contents
6. Table of Charts and Figures
7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

Total Biofuels Production by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
Total Mandated Biofuel Consumption by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
Total Mandated Biofuel Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
Total Obligatory and Voluntary Ethanol Blending Volume by Region, World Markets: 2020
Obligatory Ethanol Blending Volume by Key Market, World Markets: 2013-2023
Obligatory and Voluntary Biodiesel Blending Volume by Region, World Markets: 2020
Obligated Biodieesl Blending Volume by Key Market, World Markets: 2013-2023
Volume of Biofuels Supply Targets by Key Market, World Markets: 2013-2023
Total Biofuels Addressable Market by Policy Instrument, World Markets: 2013-2023
Share of Total Biofuels Production in Liquid Fuels Market, World Markets: 2013-2023
Total Annual Revenue by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
Gasoline Pool Market Share by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
Cumulative New Gasoline Pool Revenue by Biofuel Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
Diesel Pool Market Share by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
Cumulative New Diesel Pool Revenue by Biofuels Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
Jet Fuel Market Share by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
Total Biofuels Production by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
Forecasted Market Penetration of Biofuels by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
Cumulative Revenue from New Biofuels Production by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
Biofuels Consumption, Supply, and Production by Forecast, World Markets: 2013-2023

List of Tables

Biofuel Types, Applications, and Deployment Status
Obligatory Ethanol Blending Policies as Percentage of National Gasoline Consumption, World Markets: 2013-2023
Voluntary Ethanol Blending Policies as Percentage of National Gasoline Consumption, World Markets: 2013-2023
Volume of Obligatory Ethanol Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
Volume of Voluntary Ethanol Blending Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
Obligatory Biodiesel Blending Policies as Percentage of National Diesel Consumption, World Markets: 2013-2023
Voluntary Biodiesel Blending Policies as Percentage of National Gasoline Consumption, World Markets: 2013-2023
Volume of Obligatory Biodiesel Blending Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
Volume of Voluntary Biodiesel Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
Total Mandated Biofuels Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
Obligated Ethanol Blending Volume by Key Market, World Markets: 2013-2023
Obligated Biodiesel Blending Volume by Key Market, World Markets: 2013-2023
Biofuels Supply Targets as Percentage of National Biofuels Consumption, World Markets: 2013-2023
Volume of Biofuel Supply Targets Policies by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
Biofuel Supply Targets by Key Market, World Markets: 2013-2023
Volume of Biofuels Market by Policy Instrument, World Markets: 2013-2023
Biofuels Total Production Volume by Fuel Pathway, World Markets: 2013-2023
Biofuels Total Production Volume by Fuel Pathway, North America: 2013-2023
Biofuels Total Production Volume by Fuel Pathway, Europe: 2013-2023
Biofuels Total Production Volume by Fuel Pathway, Asia Pacific: 2013-2023
Biofuels Total Production Volume by Fuel Pathway, Latin America: 2013-2023
Biofuels Total Production Volume Capacity by Fuel Pathway, Middle East & Africa: 2013-2023
Biofuels Total Production Volume by Fuel Group, World Markets: 2013-2023
Total Production Gasoline Pool by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
Total Production Diesel Pool by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
Total Production Jet Pool by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
Annual Revenue from New Production by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
Cumulative Revenue from New Production by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
Cumulative Revenue from New Production by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023

Market Data: Microgrids

Alexandria Davis — Tue, 19 Mar 2013 06:22:10 +0000

The microgrid market is currently moving into full-scale commercialization with the launch of dozens of successful pilot programs globally, decreasing costs of solar photovoltaic (PV), and a relaxing of prohibitions against distributed generation operation during times of grid stress, including the ability to island from the larger utility grid during emergencies. As with any new innovation, adoption of microgrids will increase more rapidly as awareness of – and confidence in – the platform’s capabilities grows.

For a variety of reasons, North America (and especially the United States) still represents the best overall market for all microgrid segments in terms of aggregate capacity. Key factors include pockets of poor power quality scattered throughout the United States and the structure of behind-the-meter markets for distributed energy resources (DER). Worldwide, Navigant Research forecasts that revenue from deployments of microgrids will be just under $10 billion in 2013, increasing to just more than $40 billion annually by 2020 in the average scenario. This is significantly higher than previous market forecasts due to new market intelligence suggesting that microgrids, including retrofit projects incorporating legacy assets, require greater investment than previously recognized.

This Navigant Research report provides newly updated capacity and annual vendor revenue forecasts for the five primary microgrid market segments: commercial/industrial, community/utility, campus/institutional, military, and remote (off-grid) microgrids. The report also offers capacity and revenue forecasts for utility distribution microgrids – a segment that overlaps with community/utility and remote segments – as well as microgrid enabling technologies, the latter being the group of key components deployed within microgrids. The economic and public policy assumptions behind the forecasts are explained in detail, along with data trends and regional market drivers.

Key Questions Addressed:

How fast will the microgrid market grow in terms of total capacity by 2020?
Which regions of the world will show the most robust growth?
Which microgrid segments offer the best near-term market opportunities?
Which microgrid segments, in which regions, offer the best bet for long-term revenue growth?
How large a role will utilities play in future microgrid markets?
What potential revenues can be derived from sales of microgrid enabling technologies over time?
What are the current data trends and regional microgrid market drivers?

Who needs this report?

Microgrid hardware and software companies
Smart grid technology vendors
Distributed generation providers
Energy storage technology manufacturers
Government agencies
Utilities
Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1 Market Overview

1.2 Market Forecasts

1.3 Geographic Market Shares

2. Data Assumptions

2.1 Current Data Trends and Regional Microgrid Market Drivers

2.2 Microgrid Market Segments

2.2.1 Utility Distribution Microgrids

2.2.2 Microgrid Enabling Technologies

2.3 The Three-Scenario Formula

2.4 Economic Assumptions

2.5 Public Policy Assumptions

2.6 Power Grid Performance

2.7 A Growing Vendor Pool

2.8 Synergy with Distributed Energy Resource Deployments

3. Market Forecasts

3.1 Microgrid Capacity Methodology

3.2 Microgrid Revenue Methodology

3.3 Regional Market Forecasts

3.3.1 North America

3.3.2 Europe

3.3.3 Asia Pacific

3.3.4 Rest of World

3.4 Utility Distribution Microgrids

3.5 Microgrid Enabling Technologies

3.6 Conclusions

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List
5. Table of Contents
6. Table of Charts and Figures
7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

Total Microgrid Revenue by Forecast Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Total Microgrid Capacity by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Total Microgrid Revenue by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
UDM Capacity by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
UDM Revenue by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
MET Distributed Generation Revenue by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Total Microgrid Capacity Market Share by Region, World Markets: 2013
Total Microgrid Capacity Market Share by Region, World Markets: 2013

List of Tables

Assumptions Contributing to Microgrid Market Segment Forecasts
Total Microgrid Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Total Microgrid Capacity by Region and Segment, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2012-2020
Total Microgrid Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Total Microgrid Revenue by Region and Segment, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Total Microgrid Capacity by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Total Microgrid Capacity by Region and Segment, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Total Microgrid Revenue by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Total Microgrid Revenue by Region and Segment, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Total Microgrid Capacity by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Total Microgrid Capacity by Region and Segment, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Total Microgrid Revenue by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Total Microgrid Revenue by Region and Segment, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Utility Distribution Microgrid Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Utility Distribution Microgrid Capacity by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Utility Distribution Microgrid Capacity by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Utility Distribution Microgrid Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Utility Distribution Microgrid Revenue by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Utility Distribution Microgrid Revenue by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Microgrid Enabling Technology Distributed Generation Capacity by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Microgrid Enabling Technology Distributed Generation Revenue by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Microgrid Enabling Technology (Inverter, Storage, ADR, and PEV) Capacity by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Microgrid Enabling Technology (Inverter, Storage, ADR, and PEV) Revenue by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020

World Market Update 2012

Alexandria Davis — Fri, 15 Mar 2013 18:48:13 +0000

The BTM wind report, World Market Update 2012, published by Navigant Research, is the 18th edition of this annual wind energy market report. The report includes more than 80 tables, charts, and graphs illustrating global wind market development, as well as an on- and off-shore wind market forecast for 2013-2017 and predictions for the wind market through 2022.

World Market Update 2012 includes a full chapter dedicated to cold climate turbines. As cold climate sites often offer favorable wind conditions, the deployment of wind energy in cold climate areas is growing rapidly. World Market Update 2012 reviews the challenges presented by cold climate, analyzes the economics of cold climate technologies and projects, introduces the latest commercial applications developed by leading turbine vendors and component suppliers, and identifies future wind-related opportunities in cold climate markets.

Highlights of this report include:

Milestone: more than 285 GW wind power globally
45 GW of new capacity added in 2012, including 1.1 GW from offshore wind
The U.S. surpassed China as the largest market in terms of new installations in 2012
Significant shift in positions among the top 10 wind turbine suppliers in 2012
The top 15 wind owner-operators as of 2012
Market forecast to 2017 ( on/offshore ) and prediction to 2022
Latest incentives in key wind power markets
Special theme: Cold Climate Turbines
Major industry trends covered in more than 80 tables and graphs
More than 150 pages including comprehensive assessment of both demand and supply sides of market

List of Tables
List of Figures
Abbreviations and Technical Units
Preface
Executive Summary

1. Introduction

1.1 Methodology

1.2 Sources

1.3 Significant events in the wind industry in 2012

2. Market Development in 2012 – Demand Side

2.1 Record global wind market growth once more

2.2 The Offshore Market in 2012

2.3 Overview of Global Wind Turbine Fleet

2.4 The Top 10 Markets in the World

2.5 Commercial MW Technology in the Market

3. Supply Side of the Market in 2012

3.1 American, European and Indian OEMs push Chinese out of the top five

3.2 Still only one truly global wind turbine supplier

3.2 Trends in the Competitive Market

4. Wind Power Plant Owners

4.1 Wind project ownership base goes big time

4.2 Industry comes to terms with a new reality post the financial crisis

4.3 Strong Chinese presence among top 15 wind owner-operators

4.4 Main players dramatically increase project pipelines and targets

4.5 Plenty of growth potential in large wind power investors

4.6 New entrants seize opportunities in tough economic times

5. Market Forecasts and Estimates

5.1 Five year market forecast for 13% growth to 2017

5.1.1 Economic value of global wind market to 2017 forecast at €334 billion

5.1.2 Emerging Markets on steady course for growth

5.2 Offshore wind will make up a sizable portion of the global wind market in 2017

5.3 Expectations and predictions for development 2018-2022

5.4 Geopolitical Issues: Climate change resurfacing as major influence in energy geopolitics

5.4.1 UN climate negotiations and the Kyoto Protocol

5.4.2 European energy policy and regulation

6. Penetration of Wind Power Electricity and Wind Market Structures

6.1 Remarkable growth rate of wind contribution to global electricity supply

6.2 Wind market structures continue to evolve

7. Special Theme: Cold Climate Turbines

7.1 Introduction

7.2 Definitions and terminology

7.2.1 Abbreviations and terms

7.2.2 Cold Climate

7.2.3 Lower Temperature

7.2.4 Icing Conditions

7.2.5 Current standards, guidelines and recommendations

7.3 Challenges Presented by Cold Climates

7.4 Size of the Cold Climate Market

7.4.1 Methodology of market size analysis

7.4.2 Installed and forecasted capacity in Cold Climates

7.4.3 Regional distribution of installed and forecasted capacity

7.5 Technological requirements for Cold Climates

7.5.1 Resource assessment

7.5.2 Wind Turbine Generators

7.5.3 Testing and certification

7.6 Commercial applications developed by turbine OEMs and component suppliers

7.6.1 Blade heating

7.6.2 Instruments

7.6.3 Anti-icing coatings

7.7 Economics of Cold Climate technology & projects

7.8 Examples of Cold Climate projects

7.9 Conclusions: A growing and significant market

Appendices

A: Profiles of leading wind turbine manufacturers

B: Profiles of major sub-suppliers

C: Profiles of major wind project developers/operators

Index

List of Figures

Annual & cumulative global wind energy development 1983-2012
Total installed wind power capacity at the end of 2006, 2009 & 2012
Typical onshore wind turbine development timeline
Market share of major utilities and IPPs
Cumulative installed capacity by region at the end of 2012 and by 2017
Forecast of annual installation for the years 2013-2017
Expected world market in euro sales five years ahead
Potential offshore wind capacity in UK waters
Actual 1990-2012 – Forecast 2013-2017 – Prediction 2018-2022
Prediction for cumulative installed wind capacity by 2018 and 2022
Cumulative Wind Power Development up to 2022
Carbon emission permit price evolution in the EU
Definition of CC: Low temperature climate and icing climate
Photos showing conditions in a wind farm located in northern Finland where both low temperatures and icing conditions occur
Installed and forecasted capacity in the world
Technology maturity curves for Cold Climate adaptations
Illustration of low temperature and/or icing related costs and risk of a wind project in cold climate

List of Tables

World market growth rates 2007-2012
Installed capacity in 2011 and 2012 (Global)
Installed capacity in 2011 and 2012 (American continent)
Installed capacity in 2011 and 2012 (Asia)
Installed capacity in 2011 and 2012 (rest of world)
Installed capacity in 2011 and 2012 (Europe)
Global installed offshore wind power in 2011 -2012
Global offshore wind test sites
Global operating offshore wind farms by end 2012
Offshore wind project under construction by the end of 2012
Numbers of wind turbines worldwide
Average size of turbine (kW) installed each year
Average size of turbine (kW) in cumulative installation
The 10 largest markets in 2012 (annual installed MW)
The 10 largest markets by the end of 2012 (cumulative MW)
Growth rates in the Top 10 markets
Selected MW class wind turbines in the market
The top-10 suppliers in 2012
The five next in line
Leading suppliers in the top ten markets in 2012
Share of supplied MW by top ten wind turbine suppliers
Market shares in 2010, 2011 and 2012
Wind turbine size classes by market share 2010-2012
Wind turbine size classes by market share 2012
Leading suppliers in the four wind turbine size classes 2012
Leading suppliers in the 1.5 MW+ size class 2012
Leading suppliers in the multi-MW size class – 2012
Leading utility and IPP wind farm owner-operators
Potential major wind farm owner-operators/developers
Forecast for wind power development 2013-2017 (global)
Forecast for wind power development 2013-2017 (American continent)
Forecast for wind power development 2013-2017 (Asia)
Forecast for wind power development 2013-2017 (rest of the world)
Forecast for wind power development 2013-2017 (Europe)
Forecast for offshore wind power development 2013 to 2017
Renewable energy targets for EU states to meet the “20% by 2020” policy
Estimate of electricity from “2012 wind power capacity”, by country
Growth of wind power compared to worldwide electricity generation
Contribution of wind power to worldwide electricity generation
Wind Incentives in selected countries
IEA Ice Classification
Main challenges in Cold Climate wind energy
Description of data and criteria used in market size analysis
Total installed and forecasted capacity in Cold Climates
Regional distribution of installed and forecasted capacity in Cold Climates
Commercially available CC WTGs in March 2013 based on the questionnaire
Blade heating technology solutions
Instrument suppliers for Cold Climates
Example of the effect of icing on P90 value of project AEP using different strategies
Economic implications of cold climate issues on the economics of a wind farm project (VTT)
Example of CC projects

Small Wind Power

Alexandria Davis — Fri, 08 Mar 2013 23:22:17 +0000

Even though the market for modern small wind turbines (SWTs) has existed for 30 years, there are many signs the SWT industry is maturing, including the expanded role of SWT certification, hundreds of manufacturers located around the world, expanding dealer networks, and a growing number of national and regional industry associations. There are also a growing number of applications across telecommunications, defense, and other remote locations being enabled by the growing interest and investment in microgrids and hybrid systems that integrate small wind with solar PV and diesel generators, among other renewable distributed energy generation technologies.

The overall market for SWTs is growing as a result of feed-in tariff (FIT) policies in the United Kingdom and Italy. While there are a few bright spots in the United States market, in general, manufacturers in the U.S. are trying to regain their momentum after rebates and other key incentive programs in leading states have stalled, decreased, or expired in the past 3 years. Navigant Research forecasts that global installations of SWTs will grow from an estimated 85.8 MW in 2012 to 172 MW in 2018, representing $3.3 billion in revenues.

This Navigant Research report examines the global market for small wind power, focusing on manufacturers of small wind turbines. Market drivers and barriers, technology issues, and the competitive landscape are explored in detail, and worldwide forecasts for both revenue and capacity for small wind systems, segmented by region, extend through 2018.

Key Questions Addressed:

Which countries will lead in small wind development over the next 6 years – and why?
What is the current status and outlook for small wind power financial incentives?
What is the average installation cost for small wind turbines today and in the future?
How does small wind power compare against other renewable distributed energy generation technologies?
What size turbines are being deployed in the key markets?
How much revenue will be generated from installation of small wind turbines globally between 2012 and 2018?
How much small wind turbine capacity will be installed globally between 2012 and 2018?
Who are the small wind power market leaders and where are they working?

Who needs this report?

Small wind turbine and component manufacturers
Small wind and other renewable energy vendors and distributors
Economic development agencies
Government agencies and regulators
Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1 Market Overview

1.2 Solar Photovoltaic Markets – Opportunity and Challenge for SWT Deployment

1.3 SWT Forecast

2. Market Issues

2.1 Small Wind and the Distributed Generation Market

2.2 Defining Small Wind Systems

2.3 Small Wind Systems Market Overview and Key Trends

2.3.1 Investment Lagging, Several U.S. Companies Face Challenges

2.3.2 United Kingdom Pulls Farther Ahead of the U.S. Market

2.3.3 Technical Standards Play an Important Role in Providing Stability, Restoring Credibility

2.4 Industry Growth Drivers

2.4.1 Feed-In Tariffs

2.4.2 U.S. Treasury 1603 Cash Grant Program

2.5 Implementation Issues

2.5.1 Grid Interconnection

2.5.1.1 Competitive Landscape

3. Technology Issues

3.1 Basic Principles

3.1.1 Types

3.1.1.1 Horizontal Axis

3.1.1.2 Vertical Axis

3.1.2 Cost

3.1.3 Efficiency

3.1.4 Reliability

3.1.5 Scalability

3.1.6 Availability

3.2 Small Wind Applications

3.2.1 Residential

3.2.2 Commercial/Retail

3.2.3 Government and Institutions

3.2.4 Farms

3.2.5 Telecom Primary and Backup Power

3.2.6 Marine, Remote Monitoring, and Security

4. Market Forecasts

4.1 Small Wind Systems

4.1.1 Europe

4.1.2 North America

4.1.3 Asia Pacific

4.1.4 Rest of World

5. Company Directory
6. Acronym and Abbreviation List
7. Table of Contents
8. Table of Charts and Figures
9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

Annual Small Wind Systems Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2018
Annual Small Wind Systems Installed Capacity and Revenue by Region, Select Markets: 2011-2012E
Small Wind Systems Sales Capacity by Power Class, United Kingdom: 2005-2012E
Small Wind Systems Unit Sales by Power Class, United Kingdom: 2005-2012E
Feed-In Tariff Rate Schedule, United Kingdom: 2012-2015
U.S. Treasury 1603 Cash Grant Funds Awarded for Small Wind Installations, Top 10 States: 2012
U.S. Treasury 1603 Cash Grant Funds Awarded for Small Wind Installations, Top 10 States: 2011
Average Installed Costs for Small Wind Systems by Size, United Kingdom: 2012
Annual Small Wind Systems Installed Capacity by Region, Select Markets: 2012E-2017
Annual Small Wind Systems Installed Capacity by Country, Asia Pacific: 2012E-2018
Average Small Wind Turbine Installed Price, World Markets: 2009-2017
Common Applications of Small Wind Systems
Typical Cost Breakdown for Rural and Urban SWT Installations

List of Tables

Distributed Energy Generation Technology Comparison: 2012
Price Summary for Small Wind Feed-in Tariffs, World Markets: 2012
Top Wind Turbine Manufacturers by Number of Turbines Sold, World Markets: 2009
Small Wind Systems Average Installed Price and Annual Revenues, World Markets: 2011-2018
Annual Small Wind System Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2011-2018
Annual Small Wind System Revenue by Region, Select Countries: 2011-2018
Annual Small Wind System Installed Capacity by Region, Select Regions: 2011-2018
Small Wind System Sales Capacity by Power Class, United Kingdom: 2005-2012E
Small Wind System Unit Sales by Power Class, United Kingdom: 2005-2012
Average Installed Costs for Small Wind Systems by Size, United Kingdom: 2012
U.S. Treasury 1603 Cash Grant Funds Awarded for Small Wind Installations by State: 2012
U.S. Treasury 1603 Cash Grant Funds Awarded for Small Wind Installations by State: 2011
Top Small Wind Turbine Manufacturers, World Markets: 2009
Feed-In Tariff Rate Schedule, United Kingdom: 2012-2015
Small Wind Certification Council Certified Turbines
Small Wind Certification Council Certified Turbines
Microgeneration Certification Scheme Certified Small Wind Turbines