Navigant Research » Electric Vehicles http://www.navigantresearch.com Thu, 23 Oct 2014 06:02:16 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.8.1 Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-vehicle-market-forecasts http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-vehicle-market-forecasts#comments Wed, 22 Oct 2014 18:17:06 +0000 https://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=70129 Smart TransportationTransportation Forecast
The rapidly changing market for electric vehicles (EVs), which includes hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles (HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs), is a small but important part of the global automotive industry. Governments worldwide are keen to see increasing penetrations of EVs due to the environmental, economic, and energy security benefits they provide. Consequently, governments [...]]]>
Smart TransportationTransportation Forecast

The rapidly changing market for electric vehicles (EVs), which includes hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles (HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs), is a small but important part of the global automotive industry. Governments worldwide are keen to see increasing penetrations of EVs due to the environmental, economic, and energy security benefits they provide. Consequently, governments have both pushed automakers to develop EVs and incentivized citizens to buy them.

Furthermore, the market for vehicles that reduce fuel consumption is becoming more competitive due to other fuel efficient and alternative fuel technologies. Of note are fuel efficiency advances made to conventional internal combustion engines (ICEs) through stop-start technologies, the use of lightweight materials for body panels and chassis, engine downsizing, and growing interest in diesel. Growth in HEV, PHEV, and BEV platforms will be contingent upon expanding EV availability outside of the small hatchback segment into larger vehicle formats such as SUVs and trucks. According to Navigant Research, the global light duty EV market is expected to grow from 2.7 million vehicle sales in 2014 to 6.4 million in 2023 under a base scenario.

This Navigant Research report provides forecasts, market sizing, and market share analysis for the overall light duty vehicle (LDV) market and light duty HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs. Global forecasts for annual LDV sales and vehicles in use, segmented by scenario (conservative, base, and aggressive), world region, key country, drivetrain, class, and automaker, extend through 2023. Also provided are forecasts by automaker and vehicle class (luxury vs. economy), along with discussion of the underlying forecast assumptions such as lithium ion (Li-ion) energy density, Li-ion battery prices, and retail fuel prices.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How will the growth rates of light duty hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) vary by region and country through 2023?
  • How many light duty HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs will be on the roads through 2023?
  • What are the key factors driving growth in the light duty electric vehicle (EV) market?
  • How will light duty HEV, PHEV, and BEV sales be affected by other fuel efficient and alternative fuel technologies?
  • Which HEV, PHEV, and BEV models are expected to be launched between 2014 and 2016?
  • What are the current government policies regarding EVs and how will changes affect sales?
  • How will fuel prices and advances in lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries affect light duty EV sales?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive OEMs
  • Electric vehicle (EV) component manufacturers and suppliers
  • EV charging equipment manufacturers
  • Energy service companies (ESCOs)
  • Utilities
  • Government agencies
  • Industry associations
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Introduction

1.2  Report Scope and Definitions

1.3  Market Forecasts

2. Data Assumptions 

2.1  Background

2.2  Report Scope and Definitions

2.3  LDV Market Forecast Methodology

2.4  EV Market Forecast Methodology

2.4.1   Automaker EV Roadmaps

   2.4.1.1  Strategy

   2.4.1.2  Body Type and Class

   2.4.1.3  Presence

   2.4.1.4  EV Availability

2.4.2   EV ROI

   2.4.2.1  Vehicle Pricing

   2.4.2.2  Government Policy

   2.4.2.3  Fuel Prices

   2.4.2.4  Vehicle Characteristics

3. Market Forecasts

3.1  LDVs

3.2  EVs

3.2.1   HEVs

   3.2.1.1  Forecasts by Geography

   3.2.1.2  Forecasts by Automaker

3.2.2   PEVs

   3.2.2.1  Forecasts by Geography

   3.2.2.2  Forecasts by Automaker

3.3  Conclusions and Recommendations

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List
5. Table of Contents
6. Table of Charts and Figures
7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Light Duty EV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Li-Ion Battery Prices by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Price of Crude Oil by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Li-Ion Battery Energy Density by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Market Share by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEV Market Share by Country, World Markets: 2014
  • Light Duty PEV Sales vs. HEV Sales, Base Scenario, China: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEV Market Share by Automaker, World Markets: 2014
  • Light Duty Luxury HEV Market Share by Automaker, World Markets: 2014
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Market Share by Country, World Markets: 2014
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Country, Base Scenario, Top Five European Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Market Share by Automaker, World Markets: 2014
  • Luxury Light Duty PEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Tesla Light Duty PEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty Vehicles in Use by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEVs in Use by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty BEVs in Use by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PHEVs in Use by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEVs in Use by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty BEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty PHEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty HEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023

List of Tables

  • Anticipated HEV, PHEV, and BEV Launches, North America: 2014-2016
  • Anticipated HEV, PHEV, and BEV Launches, Europe: 2014-2016
  • Anticipated HEV, PHEV, and BEV Launches, Asia Pacific: 2014-2016
  • Light Duty HEV, PHEV, and BEV Incentives by Country, World Markets: 2014
  • Average Gasoline Price by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Average Gasoline Price by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Average Gasoline Price by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Price of Crude Oil by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Li-Ion Battery Prices by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Li-Ion Battery Energy Density by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty Vehicles in Use by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty BEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PHEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEVs in Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty BEVs in Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PHEVs in Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEVs in Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty BEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PHEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Automaker, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Automaker, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Automaker, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Automaker, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Automaker, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Automaker, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Automaker, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Automaker, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Automaker, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
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Electric Motorcycles and Scooters http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-motorcycles-and-scooters http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-motorcycles-and-scooters#comments Wed, 07 May 2014 17:15:54 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=65002 Smart Transportation
Coming out of a tough economic period, the power two-wheeler (PTW) vehicle industry, which includes electric motorcycles (e-motorcycles) and electric scooters (e-scooters), has been growing slowly over the last couple of years. In the near term, sales volumes are likely to be low due to continued high costs for components and low levels of demand. [...]]]>
Smart Transportation

Coming out of a tough economic period, the power two-wheeler (PTW) vehicle industry, which includes electric motorcycles (e-motorcycles) and electric scooters (e-scooters), has been growing slowly over the last couple of years. In the near term, sales volumes are likely to be low due to continued high costs for components and low levels of demand. Yet, the market seems poised for growth in many regions later this decade as consumer markets continue to increase, new competitors enter, and suppliers increase capabilities.

The electric PTW (e-PTW) market is led by China, where the majority of the world’s e-motorcycles and e-scooters are sold. However, since policies and demand in China indicate reduced sales in that country, the e-motorcycle and e-scooter markets are growing in other regions. Consumers are seeking refuge from higher gasoline prices, e-PTW vehicles are growing more mature, and cities are becoming increasingly congested with traffic. Overall, though, the market for e-PTWs continues to face numerous challenges, including high costs, limited vehicle availability, poor product performance, and a financial shakedown. Navigant Research forecasts that global annual sales of e-motorcycles will grow from 1.2 million vehicles in 2014 to 1.4 million in 2023, while sales of e-scooters will grow from 4.1 million to 4.6 million.

This Navigant Research report examines the global markets for high-powered and low-powered e-motorcycles, e-scooters, and the related battery technologies. The study provides an analysis of the market drivers and barriers and key technology issues related to e-PTWs, as well as the impact of government influence. Global forecasts for e-PTWs and the batteries used in the vehicles, segmented by region, technology, and internal combustion engine (ICE) motor size equivalent, extend through 2023. The report also examines the market for gasoline motorcycles and scooters, battery market issues, the effect of electric vehicle (EV) charging equipment, and the major industry players.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How will the gasoline motorcycle and scooter markets affect the electric power two-wheeler (e-PTW) market?
  • How will the electric car market influence the e-motorcycle and e-scooter markets?
  • What are the key drivers of growth in the e-motorcycle and e-scooter markets?
  • How many e-PTWs will sell in the next few years?
  • What are the different types of batteries used in e-motorcycles and e-scooters?
  • How fast will lithium ion batteries penetrate the e-PTW market?
  • Who are the key industry players in the e-motorcycle and e-scooter markets?
Who needs this report?
  • Motorcycle and scooter OEMs
  • Battery manufacturers
  • EV component suppliers
  • EV charging equipment manufacturers
  • Fleet managers
  • Utilities
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Market Issues

1.2  Technology Issues

1.3  Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues

2.1  Definitions

2.2  ICE Motorcycle and Scooter Markets Drivers

2.2.1   North America

2.2.2   Europe

2.2.3   Asia Pacific

2.2.4   Latin America

2.2.5   Middle East & Africa

2.3  E-Motorcycle/E-Scooter Segmentation

2.3.1   Fleet Usage

2.3.1.1  Delivery

2.3.1.2  Police/Security

2.3.1.3  Rental Service

2.3.2   Performance Motorcycles

2.3.2.1  E-Motorcycle Racing Circuit

2.3.2.2  Off-Road

2.3.3   Commuting/Transportation

2.3.3.1  Product Segmentation Challenges in Asia Pacific

2.3.3.2  Fuel Costs for Internal Combustion Engine Power Two-Wheelers

2.4  Interaction with the Light Duty Vehicle Market

2.4.1   Impact of Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment Installations

2.4.2   E-Scooters from Automotive Brands

2.4.2.1  Vectrix Impact on Potential Automotive E-Scooters

2.4.3   The Tesla Motors Business Model

2.5  Government Influence

2.5.1   Traffic and Emissions Restrictions

2.6  Battery Market Issues

2.6.1   Demand and Cost for Lead-Acid

2.6.1.1  China Lead-Acid Battery Limitations

2.6.2   Demand and Cost for Li-Ion

2.6.3   Removable Battery Trends

2.7  Market Barriers

2.7.1   Costs

2.7.2   Vehicle Availability and Product Performance

2.7.3   Geography and Climate

2.7.4   Market Shake Out

3. Technology Issues

3.1  Battery Technology

3.1.1   SLA

3.1.2   NiMH

3.1.3   Li-ion

3.1.3.1  Lithium Iron Phosphate

3.1.3.2  Lithium Metal Chemistries

3.2  Battery Management

3.3  Electric Motors

3.4  Regenerative Braking

3.5  Vehicle Drivetrain Component Costs Trends

3.6  Vehicle Connectivity

3.7  Vehicle Recharging

4. Key Industry Players

4.1  Key OEMs

4.1.1   BMW Motorrad International

4.1.2   Brammo, Inc.

4.1.3   GOVECS

4.1.4   iO Scooter

4.1.5   Jiangsu Xinri E-Vehicle Co., Ltd.

4.1.6   Terra Motors

4.1.7   Vmoto Ltd.

4.1.8   Zero Motorcycles, Inc.

4.2  Key Industry Suppliers

4.2.1   Flextronics

4.2.2   Panasonic/Sanyo

4.2.3   Parker Hannafin

4.2.4   Samsung SDI

4.2.5   Sevcon

4.2.6   Tianneng Power International Ltd.

4.3  Industry Participants

4.3.1   AllCell Technologies

4.3.2   BOXX Corp

4.3.3   BRD Motorcycles

4.3.4   Chaowei Power

4.3.5   Elmoto (ID Bike, GmbH)

4.3.6   e-Moto LLC

4.3.7   Honda

4.3.8   Huafu High Technology Energy Storage Co., Ltd.

4.3.9   KLD Energy Technologies, Inc.

4.3.10 KTM

4.3.11  Lightning Motorcycles

4.3.12  Mahindra GenZe

4.3.13  Mission Motors

4.3.14  Peugeot Scooters

4.3.15  Suzuki

4.3.16  SYM

4.3.17  Yamaha Motor Co.

4.4  Other Industry Participants

5. Market Forecasts

5.1  Motorcycle and Scooter Market

5.2  E- Scooter Market

5.3  E-Motorcycle Market

5.4  E-PTW Segmentation by Motor Size

5.5  E-PTW Segmentation by Battery Type

5.6  Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Company Directory
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List
8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Installed Energy Storage Energy Capacity in Microgrids by Technology, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Annual Sales of E-Scooters and E-Motorcycles by Type, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Retail Gasoline Prices by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Advanced Battery Energy Storage Capacity by Segment, World Markets: 2012
  • Estimated Annual Gas-Powered Scooter Sales by Region, World Markets: 2009-2013
  • Estimated Annual Gas-Powered Motorcycle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2009-2013
  • Annual E-Scooter Sales, China and Rest of World: 2014-2023
  • Annual E-Motorcycle Sales by Power Level, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of E-PTWs by ICE cc Equivalent, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Percentage of Li-ion Batteries in E-Motorcycles and E-Scooters, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Battery Power Capacity of Annual Sales of E-PTWs by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Travel Times on E40 between Leuven and Brussels during Morning Rush Hour
  • Battery Chemistry Energy Density Comparison
  • Cylinder Li-ion Battery Cutaway Diagram
  • Prismatic Li-ion Battery Cutaway Diagram
  • SAE Connectors: J1772 and J1772 Combo Charger
  • CHAdeMO Connector

List of Tables

  • E-PTW Definitions by Region, World Markets: 2014
  • Total Cost of Ownership Comparison: 2014
  • Advanced Battery Energy Storage Capacity by Segment, World Markets: 2012
  • Battery Chemistry Characteristics
  • Estimated Retail Gasoline Prices by Region, World Markets: 2009-2013
  • Retail Gasoline Prices by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Estimated Annual Sales of Gas-Powered Scooters (125cc or Less) by Region, World Markets: 2009-2013
  • Estimated Annual Sales of Gas-Powered Motorcycles (More than 125cc) by Region, World Markets: 2009-2013
  • Annual Sales of Gas-Powered Scooters by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of Gas-Powered Motorcycles by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of E-Scooters by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of Low-Powered E-Motorcycles (Less than 30 kW/40 hp Peak) by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of High-Powered E-Motorcycles (More than 30 kW/40 hp Peak) by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of E-Motorcycles by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of E-PTWs by ICE cc Equivalent, North America: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of E-PTWs by ICE cc Equivalent, Western Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of E-PTWs by ICE cc Equivalent, Eastern Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of E-PTWs by ICE cc Equivalent, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of E-PTWs by ICE cc Equivalent, Latin America: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of E-PTWs by Internal Combustion Engine cc Equivalent, Middle East & Africa: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of E-PTWs by ICE cc Equivalent, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Battery Power Capacity of Annual Sales of E-PTWs by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Battery Power Capacity of Annual Sales of Li-ion E-Scooters by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Battery Power Capacity of Annual Sales of SLA E-Scooters by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • E-Scooter Battery Technology Mix and Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Battery Power Capacity of Annual Sales of Li-ion E-Motorcycles by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • E-Motorcycle Battery Technology Mix by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Electricity Use by E-PTW Type, North America: 2014-2023
  • Annual Electricity Use by E-PTW Type, Western Europe: 2014-2023
  • Cities Banning or Restricting Motorcycles, China: 2010
  • Energy Storage Advantages and Weaknesses by Technology: 2014
  • E-PTW Definitions by Region, World Markets: 2014
  • Cities Banning or Restricting Motorcycles, China: 2010
  • Energy Storage Advantages and Weaknesses by Technology: 2014
  • Total Cost of Ownership Comparison: 2014
  • Battery Chemistry Characteristics
  • Drivetrain Component Percentage of Costs for E-PTWs: 2014
  • BMW Motorrad SWOT Analysis
  • Brammo Product Line: 2014
  • Brammo SWOT Analysis
  • GOVECS Product Line: 2014
  • GOVECS SWOT Analysis
  • iO Scooter SWOT Analysis
  • Jiangsu Xinri E-Vehicle Co. SWOT Analysis
  • Terra Motors SWOT Analysis
  • Vmoto SWOT Analysis
  • Zero Motorcycles Product Line: 2014
  • Zero Motorcycles SWOT Analysis
  • Flextronics SWOT Analysis
  • Panasonic SWOT Analysis
  • Parker Hannafin SWOT Analysis
  • Samsung SDI SWOT Analysis
  • Sevcon SWOT Analysis
  • Tianneng SWOT Analysis
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Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-vehicle-geographic-forecasts http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-vehicle-geographic-forecasts#comments Wed, 23 Apr 2014 15:40:30 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=64550 Smart TransportationTransportation Forecast
To date, North America is the strongest market for light duty (LD) plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), with nearly 100,000 sold in 2013. Japan is a distant second, with just under 30,000 sales, followed by the Netherlands (over 23,000) and China (over 17,000). Navigant Research expects that the United States will be the largest market for [...]]]>
Smart TransportationTransportation Forecast

To date, North America is the strongest market for light duty (LD) plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), with nearly 100,000 sold in 2013. Japan is a distant second, with just under 30,000 sales, followed by the Netherlands (over 23,000) and China (over 17,000). Navigant Research expects that the United States will be the largest market for PEVs during the next 10 years, with LD PEV sales exceeding 514,000 in 2023.

The top cities for LD PEV sales among all of the regions examined in this report are expected to be Los Angeles, Paris, and Tokyo. Cities with higher densities will likely see greater interest in incentivizing PEV purchases, optimizing PEV charging, and developing publicly available EV supply equipment (EVSE) infrastructure. The overall growth of LD PEV sales will be considerable throughout the world over the next decade. Navigant Research forecasts that the global LD PEV market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.6% while the global market for LD vehicles will grow at a CAGR of only 2.6%. How and where PEVs are bought will affect grid distribution systems and utility business models since Navigant Research estimates PEVs increase residential customer load by 33% to 37%.

This Navigant Research report provides data and forecasts for LD PEV sales in U.S. states, metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), and utility service territories; Canadian provinces and cities; and 10 major metropolitan areas in Europe and Asia Pacific. The study estimates the number of vehicles that will be in use in specific geographic locations and assesses the potential impacts of anticipated PEV penetration in the most active PEV markets. Market forecasts for LD PEV sales and parcs for each geographic region covered extend through 2023. The study also provides penetration data and forecasts on the number of vehicles in use by technology, as well as analyses of major trends in the forecasts.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • Which states, provinces, and cities in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific have the greatest affinity toward electric vehicle (EV) ownership?
  • What are the typical PEV owner demographics in the United States and Canada?
  • Which metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and cities have demographic profiles that match the typical PEV owner demographics in the United States and Canada?
  • What is the projected size of the global PEV market over the next 10 years and where will sales grow the fastest?
  • How many vehicles will electric utilities have to prepare for in the future?
  • What are the largest metropolitan markets for PEVs outside of the United States?
  • How do fuel costs affect the regional markets for PEVs?
Who needs this report?
  • Automobile OEM marketing managers
  • Vehicle aftermarket and service management
  • Tier One supplier marketing managers
  • EV charging equipment marketing managers
  • Electric utility management
  • State, province, and city urban planners
  • EV advocacy groups
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Background Data

1.2  Market Forecasts

2. Background Data  

2.1  Introduction

2.2  Population and Demographics

2.2.1   U.S. Demographics

2.2.2   Canadian Demographics

2.3  PEV Attitudes in the United States

2.4  Vehicle and Infrastructure Availability

2.5  PEV ROI

3. Market Forecasts  

3.1  Methodology

3.2  Regional PEV Markets

3.3  North America

3.3.1   PEV Sales by State

3.3.2   PEV Sales by MSA

3.3.3   PEV Parc by Selected Utility Service Area

3.3.4   PEV Sales by Province

3.3.5   PEV Sales by City

3.4  Europe

3.5  Asia Pacific

3.6  Conclusions

4. Company Directory
5. Acronym and Abbreviation List
6. Table of Contents
7. Table of Charts and Figures
8. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Top Metropolitan Area per Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc by Top Metropolitan Area per Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Index of Positive Opinion toward PEVs by State, United States: 2013
  • Fuel Costs per Mile by Fuel, Select Regions: 2014
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Major Global Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales as a Percentage of Total LD Vehicle Sales, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales as a Percentage of Total LD Vehicle Sales, Canada: 2014-2023
  • LD PEV Sales by Top 10 States, United States: 2014, 2023
  • LD PEV Sales as a Percentage of LD Vehicle Sales by Top 25 States, United States: 2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc by Top Five Utility Service Areas, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Top Seven Provinces, Canada: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Top Nine Cities, Canada: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc by Select Metropolitan Area, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales Market Share by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc Market Share by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Select Metropolitan Area, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales Market Share by Select Metropolitan Area, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc Market Share by Select Metropolitan Area, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023

List of Tables

  • Cumulative Demand Charge Avoidance Return on Investment for V2B Infrastructure
  • Geographic Areas for Forecasts
  • PEV Demographic Profile
  • Index of Demographic Similarities between Metropolitan Statistical Areas and National PEV Profile by Top 10 MSAs, United States: 2010
  • Index of Demographic Similarities between Cities and National PEV Profile by Top Seven Cities, Canada: 2010
  • Total Population and Number of Households by State, United States: 2013
  • Total Population by 100 Largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2012
  • Total Population and Households by Selected Utility Service Area, United States: 2011
  • Total Population by Province, Canada: 2013
  • Total Population by Select City, Canada: 2012
  • Total Population by Select City, Europe: 2012
  • Total Population by Select City, Asia Pacific: 2012
  • Annual Gasoline Pump Prices by State, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual Residential Electricity Prices for EV Charging Services by State, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual Gasoline Pump Prices by Province, Canada: 2014-2023
  • Annual Residential Electricity Prices by Province, Canada: 2014-2023
  • Annual Diesel Pump Prices by Country, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual Residential Electricity Prices by Country, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual Gasoline Pump Prices by Country, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual Residential Electricity Prices by Country, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Major Global Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Annual LD Vehicle Sales by State, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by State, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales as a Percentage of Total LD Vehicle Sales by State, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc by State, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual Ratio of LD PEV Sales to Population by Top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc by Top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual Percentage of Total LD PEVs by Top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Selected Utility Service Area, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc by Selected Utility Service Area, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD Vehicle Sales by Province, Canada: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Province, Canada: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales as a Percentage of Total LD Vehicle Sales by Province, Canada: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc by Province, Canada: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Top Nine Cities, Canada: 2014-2023
  • Annual City LD PEV Sales as Percentage of Province PEV Sales, Canada: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc by Top Nine Cities, Canada: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD Vehicle Sales by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales as Percentage of LD Vehicle Sales by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD Vehicle Parc by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc Percentage of Fleet by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD Vehicle Sales by Select City, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Select City, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales as Percentage of LDV Sales by Select City, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD Vehicle Parc by Select City, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc by Select City, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc Percentage of Select City Fleet, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
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Alternative Revenue Streams for Automakers http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/alternative-revenue-streams-for-automakers http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/alternative-revenue-streams-for-automakers#comments Mon, 31 Mar 2014 19:14:28 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=63777 Smart Transportation
Automotive manufacturers are making the first inroads into new markets not directly related to vehicle sales. They are selling home energy management (HEM) systems and residential PV units; offering carsharing services and smart parking applications; and developing the tools that will allow plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) drivers to participate in grid services programs. All of [...]]]>
Smart Transportation

Automotive manufacturers are making the first inroads into new markets not directly related to vehicle sales. They are selling home energy management (HEM) systems and residential PV units; offering carsharing services and smart parking applications; and developing the tools that will allow plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) drivers to participate in grid services programs. All of these products and services capitalize on the new market potential relating to the advent of PEVs and the drive toward more sustainable transportation.

While the automotive industry is taking a serious look at these types of solutions, it is not clear whether they offer revenue potential. Automakers will be facing the same drivers and barriers that the incumbents face in these markets. They also face the challenge of trying to enter an entirely new type of market where they have little or no experience with the product or type of service. While Navigant Research believes that automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) will participate in these markets to a growing degree, it is not as likely that they will be significant revenue generating opportunities in the near term. Navigant Research forecasts that global OEM revenue from new services related to PEVs and sustainable transportation will grow from $426.9 million in 2014 to $5.3 billion in 2023.

This Navigant Research report examines services that automakers are already offering or developing, either in conjunction with their PEVs or simply as standalone services associated with sustainable transportation. The study analyzes the following services: vehicle-to-grid (V2G), vehicle-to-building (V2B), HEM, solar energy, EV charging equipment and networks, carsharing, and smart parking. Global forecasts of the total addressable market and projected OEM revenue from these services, segmented by region, extend through 2023. The report also examines the existing market dynamics for each of the services covered, the drivers and challenges for automakers entering those markets, and the key market players.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What are the new opportunities available to automakers in the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market?
  • What is driving automakers to develop new services related to plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) and sustainable transportation?
  • Which new services are automakers most likely to develop further?
  • What are the existing market dynamics and forecasts for these new services and who are the key players?
  • What kind of revenue streams will these new markets offer automotive OEMs?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive manufacturers and suppliers
  • Carsharing companies
  • Solar PV companies and solar services companies
  • Electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) manufacturers
  • Energy service companies
  • Utilities
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Introduction

1.1.1   Revenue Opportunities

1.1.2   Challenges and Drivers

1.2  Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues 

2.1  Market Overview

2.2  Market Drivers

2.2.1   Vehicle Electrification or the Rise of the Battery

2.2.2   Slowing Vehicle Sales Growth

   2.2.2.1  Trends Affecting Car Sales

   2.2.2.2  Light Duty Vehicle Sales Forecasts

2.2.3   New Focus on Managing Urban Mobility

   2.2.3.1  Congestion Mitigation

   2.2.3.2  Emissions Reduction

2.2.4   Increased Connectivity

2.2.5   Autonomous Vehicle Technologies

2.3  New Revenue Markets for PEV Makers

2.3.1   V2G

   2.3.1.1  Market Conditions and Sizing

   2.3.1.2  V2G PEV Forecasts

   2.3.1.3  V2G Case Studies

   2.3.1.4  Forecasting V2G Services

2.3.2   V2B Services

   2.3.2.1  Market Conditions and Sizing

2.3.3   HEM Services

   2.3.3.1  Market Conditions and Sizing

   2.3.3.2  V2H

2.3.4   Solar Energy Services

   2.3.4.1  Market Conditions and Sizing

2.3.5   Charging Equipment and Network Operations

   2.3.5.1  Market Conditions and Sizing

2.3.6   Carsharing Services

   2.3.6.1  Market Conditions and Sizing

2.3.7   Telematics Promoting Sustainable Transportation

   2.3.7.1  Smart Parking

2.4  Overall Market Issues and Challenges

2.4.1   Entering New Markets

2.4.2   Electricity Prices versus New Services

2.4.3   Strategies for the Carshare Market

2.4.4   Strategies for the Solar Energy Services Market

2.4.5   Strategies for the V2G Market

3. Technology Issues

3.1  Introduction

3.2  V2G Technology

3.2.1   Impact on Vehicle Batteries

3.2.2   Utility Upgrades

3.2.3   Communications

3.2.4   Data Analytics

3.2.5   Standards

3.3  HEM

3.3.1   Standards

4. Key Industry Players 

4.1  Introduction

4.2  Automotive OEMs

4.2.1   Audi

4.2.2   BMW

4.2.3   Chrysler

4.2.4   Daimler

4.2.5   Ford

4.2.6   GM

4.2.7   Honda

4.2.8   Mitsubishi Motors

4.2.9   Nissan

4.2.10   Renault

4.2.11   Tesla Motors

4.2.12   Toyota Motor Corp.

4.3  HEM Companies

4.3.1   Nest Labs

4.4  Renewable Energy Supply

4.4.1   Ingeteam

4.4.2   SolarCity

4.4.3   SunPower Corporation

4.4.4   TimberRock

4.5  Connected Car or Mobile App Companies

4.5.1   ParkMe

4.5.2   Parkopedia

4.5.3   INRIX

4.5.4   Streetline

4.6  Carshare Companies

4.6.1   RelayRides

4.6.2   Zipcar

4.7  EVSE Companies and V2G Companies

4.7.1   Autogrid

4.7.2   Greenlots

4.7.3   Hitachi

4.7.4   Nichicon

4.7.5   Silver Spring Networks

4.7.6   Tendril

4.8  Utilities

4.8.1   Endesa

4.8.2   EVGrid

4.8.3   Pacific Gas & Electric

4.8.4   RWE

4.8.5   San Diego Gas and Electric

5. Market Forecasts  

5.1  Overview of Methodology

5.2  Grid Services

5.3  Home Energy Services

5.4  EV Charging Equipment Sales

5.5  Carshare Services

5.6  Total Potential Revenue to OEMs for New Services

5.7  Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Company Directory
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List

8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Tables

  • Cumulative Demand Charge Avoidance Return on Investment for V2B Infrastructure
  • Annual PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total Installed LD V2G Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual V2G-Enabled LD PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • V2G-Enabled LD PEV Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Installed LD PEV Capacity Participating in Demand Response Programs by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Networked HEM System Shipments by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Level 2 Residential EVSE Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Historical Growth in Carsharing Membership by Region, World Markets: 2006-2013
  • Total Members in Carsharing Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Revenue from V2G Demand Response Program Participation by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from V2G Demand Response Program Participation by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Revenue from V2G Frequency Regulation by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from V2G Frequency Regulation by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from HEM System Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from Residential PV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from Residential EVSE Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from Carsharing Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total OEM Revenue from New Services by Application, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total OEM Revenue from New Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023

List of Charts and Figures

  • Total OEM Revenue from New Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual V2G-Enabled LD PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual V2G-Enabled LD PEV Parc by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Installed LD PEV Capacity Participating in Demand Response Programs by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Networked HEM System Shipments by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Networked HEM System Shipments versus PEV Sales, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of Residential PV Systems and PEVs, North America: 2014-2023
  • Annual Level 2 Residential EVSE Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Historical Growth in Carsharing Membership by Region, World Markets: 2006-2013
  • Total Members in Carsharing Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from Grid Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from Home Energy Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from Residential EVSE Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from Carsharing Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Home Energy Management: Five Segments along a Continuum
  • A Comprehensive Networked HEM System Topology
  • HomePlug Topology
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Electric Vehicle Batteries http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-vehicle-batteries http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-vehicle-batteries#comments Mon, 31 Mar 2014 18:54:59 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=63762 Energy StorageSmart Energy
Global automotive manufacturers are accelerating their efforts to produce more vehicles utilizing electric drivetrains. Many factors are contributing to this trend, including newly enacted fuel economy standards, greater confidence in electric-powered vehicles, and advances in battery technology. In 2012, Toyota launched the Plug-in Prius, powered for the first time with lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries. This [...]]]>
Energy StorageSmart Energy

Global automotive manufacturers are accelerating their efforts to produce more vehicles utilizing electric drivetrains. Many factors are contributing to this trend, including newly enacted fuel economy standards, greater confidence in electric-powered vehicles, and advances in battery technology. In 2012, Toyota launched the Plug-in Prius, powered for the first time with lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries. This shift from the well-established nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) batteries to Li-ion represented a major endorsement of the ability of this chemistry to perform consistently in an automotive environment. Since then, most of the other major OEMs have introduced battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) models, almost all of which use Li-ion batteries for onboard energy storage.

The immediate future looks to be secure for the Li-ion chemistry, though there are still many variants under development to improve performance and reduce cost. Improvements continue to be made and leading battery cell manufacturers have built new factories utilizing the latest production techniques, including greater automation and faster throughput. Navigant Research forecasts that the global market for Li-ion batteries in light duty consumer vehicles will grow from $3.2 billion in 2013 to $24.1 billion in 2023.

This Navigant Research report provides a detailed examination of the growing market for Li-ion batteries, including profiles of the leading Li-ion battery manufacturers and systems integrators. The study assesses the relative sizes of the battery markets for different vehicle types, as well as vehicle roadmaps and projected sales for BEVs, PHEVs, and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). Global market forecasts for revenue from Li-ion batteries, segmented by vehicle type and region, extend through 2023. The report also includes a review of the different Li-ion battery chemistries and competing energy storage technologies, such as ultracapacitors and NiMH batteries.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • Have lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries become the industry standard for electric vehicles (EVs)?
  • Who are the leading Li-ion battery manufacturers?
  • Which key joint venture companies are working with OEMs and battery manufacturers?
  • What are the different chemistries in the EV battery market?
  • How will the cost per kilowatt-hour for Li-ion batteries change in the next several years?
  • Which vehicle segment offers the best opportunities for battery manufacturers?
  • What are the vehicle roadmaps for battery, plug-in hybrid, and hybrid electric vehicles (BEVs, PHEVs, and HEVs) through 2023?
  • What are the forecasts for revenue from Li-ion batteries through 2023?
Who needs this report?
  • Vehicle manufacturers
  • Vehicle fleet managers
  • Automotive industry suppliers
  • Battery suppliers
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  The Electric Vehicle Market

1.2  Energy Storage for EVs

1.3  Automotive Li-ion Battery Volume

1.4  World Market Highlights

2. Market Issues

2.1  Introduction

2.2  Advanced Batteries for the Transportation Market

2.3  Market Size and Segmentation

2.3.1   BEVs

2.3.2   PHEVs

2.3.3   HEVs

2.3.4   Stop-Start Vehicles

2.3.5   Commercial Vehicles

2.4  Power and Energy Requirements

2.5  Industry Growth Drivers

2.5.1   Emissions Reductions

2.5.2   Government Incentives

2.5.2.1  United States

2.5.2.2  Europe

2.5.2.3  China

2.5.2.4  Japan

2.5.2.5  South Korea

2.5.2.6  India

2.6  Different Finance Models

2.7  Battery Swapping

2.8  Grid Applications

2.8.1   Secondary Use of Batteries

2.8.2   Vehicle-to-Grid Power Delivery

2.9  Early Fleet Adopters of HEVs and PEVs

2.9.1   North America

2.9.2   China

2.9.3   Utilities

2.10   Transitioning from Early Adopters to Mainstream

2.10.1    Sensitivity to Fuel Prices

2.10.2    Ease of Purchase

2.10.3    Reliability

2.10.4    Resale Value

2.10.5    Limited Driving Range

2.11   Marketing and Commercialization

2.12   Value Chain of the Li-ion Battery Industry

2.12.1   Raw Materials

2.12.2   Cell Components and Electronics

2.12.3    Integrated Systems: Cell and Pack Manufacturers

2.12.4    Battery Manufacturer and OEM Joint Ventures

2.12.5    Materials Recycling

2.13   Requirements for Commercialization

2.13.1    Cost

2.13.2    Capacity

2.13.3    Weight and Size

2.13.4    Charge Rate

2.13.5    Performance

3. Technology Issues

3.1  Competing Energy Storage Technologies

3.1.1   Ultracapacitors

3.1.2   NiMH Batteries

3.1.3   Li-ion Batteries

3.1.4   Strengths and Weaknesses

3.2  Li-ion Batteries in Detail

3.2.1   Li-ion Battery Components

3.3  Competing Technologies in Development

3.3.1   Lithium-Air

3.3.2   Lithium Sulfur

3.3.3   Solid-State

3.4  Access to Lithium

3.5  Safety and Implementation

3.5.1   Battery Charging Levels

3.5.2   DC Fast Charging

3.5.3   Sensitivity to Temperature

4. Key Industry Players

4.1  Introduction

4.2  Battery Cell Manufacturers

4.2.1   A123 Systems

4.2.2   Altair Nanotechnologies

4.2.3   Boston-Power, Inc.

4.2.4   BYD

4.2.5   Electrovaya

4.2.6   GS Yuasa

4.2.7   Hitachi Automotive Systems

4.2.8   Johnson Controls

4.2.9   LG Chem/Compact Power

4.2.10  NEC

4.2.11  Panasonic

4.2.12  Samsung SDI

4.2.13  Toshiba

4.3  Battery Pack System Integrators

4.3.1   Automotive Energy Supply Corporation

4.3.2   Blue Energy

4.3.3   Deutsche ACCUmotive

4.3.4   Lithium Energy & Power GmbH

4.3.5   Magna E-Car

4.3.6   Primearth EV Energy Co.

4.3.7   Robert Bosch Battery Systems

4.3.8   SK Continental E-motion

4.4  Automotive Manufacturers

4.4.1   BMW

4.4.2   Chery

4.4.3   Daimler

4.4.4   Fiat Chrysler

4.4.5   Ford

4.4.6   General Motors

4.4.7   Honda

4.4.8   Hyundai

4.4.9   Mazda

4.4.10  Mitsubishi

4.4.11  Nissan

4.4.12  PSA Peugeot-Citroën

4.4.13  Renault

4.4.14  Tesla

4.4.15  Toyota

4.4.16  Volkswagen/Audi

4.4.17  Volvo

4.4.18  ZAP

4.5  Other Industry Players

4.5.1   China BAK Battery

4.5.2   XALT Energy

5. Market Forecasts

5.1  Introduction

5.2  Global EV Market

5.3  Li-ion Transportation Battery Market in the BEV Segment

5.4  Li-ion Transportation Battery Market in the PHEV Segment

5.5  Li-ion Transportation Battery Market in the HEV Segment

5.6  Li-ion Transportation Battery Market in the SSV Segment

5.7  Overall Market Assessment

5.8  Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Company Directory
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List
8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Total Li-ion Vehicle Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet BEV, PHEV, and HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV, PHEV, and HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV Li-ion Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV Li-ion Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer PHEV Li-ion Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer PHEV Li-ion Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer HEV Li-ion Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer HEV Li-ion Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty SSV Li-ion Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Stop-Start Vehicle Li-ion Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Revenue by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Vehicle Li-ion Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023

List of Tables

  • Vehicle Battery Capacities by Selected HEV and PEV Models: 2014
  • Installed New Capacity of Li-ion Batteries for Energy Storage Applications, World Markets: 2014-2022
  • Estimated Component Costs, 25 kWh LMO Battery Pack, World Markets: 2014
  • Production of Passenger PHEVs and BEVs by Make and Model, World Markets: MY 2014
  • Roadmap of Passenger PHEVs and BEVS by Model: 2015 and Beyond
  • Selected Hybrid Trucks Available by Manufacturer, World Markets: 2013
  • Selected PHEV Trucks Available or Being Developed by Drivetrain Manufacturer, World Markets: 2014
  • Selected BEV Trucks Available or Being Developed by Drivetrain Manufacturer, World Markets: 2013
  • Selected PHEV and BEV Trucks in Service or Pending Deployment by Location, World Markets: 2013
  • U.S. DOE Stimulus Grants for Battery Manufacturing by Company: 2014
  • Energy Storage Type Comparison: 2014
  • Characteristics of Commercial Ultracapacitors by Manufacturer: 2012
  • Characteristics of NiMH Batteries in Vehicle Applications by Battery Maker: 2012
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV, PHEV, and HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet BEV, PHEV, and HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV Li-ion Battery Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer PHEV Li-ion Battery Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer HEV Li-ion Battery Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Sales Revenue Including SSVs by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet Vehicle Li-ion Battery Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet Vehicle Li-ion Battery Sales Revenue Percentage of Total by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet Vehicle Li-ion Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV Li-ion Transportation Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV Li-ion Transportation Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer PHEV Li-ion Transportation Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer PHEV Li-ion Transportation Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer HEV Li-ion Transportation Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer HEV Li-ion Transportation Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Revenue Including SSVs by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Capacity Including SSVs by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Revenue by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Revenue by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Vehicle Li-ion Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Energy Storage Technology Strengths and Weaknesses
  • Ranking of Li-ion Technology Options by Property: 2014
  • Total Vehicle Li-ion Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Capacity by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Characteristics of Li-ion Battery Chemistries
  • Adoption of Li-ion Battery Chemistry by Battery Vendor and Vehicle OEM
  • Li-ion Battery Components, Functions, and Materials
  • Major Cathode Chemistries for Li-ion Batteries: 2014
  • Key EV Battery Player Map: 2014
  • Vehicle Battery Details by Selected HEV and PEV Models: 2014
  • Li-ion Battery Price by Battery Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Medium/Heavy Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty SSV Li-ion Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty SSV Li-ion Transportation Battery Energy Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Capacity Percentage by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty SSV Li-ion Battery Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Annual Growth in Total Light Duty SSV Li-ion Battery Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty SSV Li-ion Battery Revenue by Country, World Markets: 2013-2023
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Wireless Charging Systems for Electric Vehicles http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/wireless-charging-systems-for-electric-vehicles http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/wireless-charging-systems-for-electric-vehicles#comments Tue, 25 Feb 2014 02:48:44 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=62614 Smart Transportation
Until recently, the prospects for wireless electric vehicle (EV) charging appeared limited, if a market developed at all. That has changed in the last 12 months. It is now clear that several major automakers are planning to bring wireless systems to market within the next few years, and a significant portion of the industry believes [...]]]>
Smart Transportation

Until recently, the prospects for wireless electric vehicle (EV) charging appeared limited, if a market developed at all. That has changed in the last 12 months. It is now clear that several major automakers are planning to bring wireless systems to market within the next few years, and a significant portion of the industry believes that wireless technology represents the future of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) charging.

As of early 2014, there is only one commercial wireless charging system available for PEVs, an aftermarket system offered by Evatran and Bosch, and it is only available in North America. Automakers and their Tier One suppliers continue to be reticent on their plans for wireless EV charging. Most wireless charging systems are in the pilot phase and are likely to remain there for another 2 to 3 years. By 2015-2016, however, models with built-in wireless charging capability will be available from several major automakers. Within a decade, wireless charging could be the leading way of charging EVs. Navigant Research forecasts that wireless charging equipment for light duty vehicles will grow by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 108% from 2013 to 2022, reaching annual sales of slightly less than 302,000 units in 2022.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the fledgling market for wireless charging systems for EVs. The study examines the technology of wireless EV charging and the efforts of technology developers, working in partnership with automakers, to bring systems to market. Global market forecasts for sales of wireless EV charging systems, segmented by region, extend through 2022. The report also looks at the demand drivers and market barriers associated with wireless EV charging, along with the efforts of automakers to incorporate wireless charging capability into their EV models.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What are the primary benefits and disadvantages of wireless electric vehicle (EV) charging?
  • What are the technological issues associated with wireless EV charging?
  • Who are the key players in developing wireless EV charging systems?
  • How have the wireless EV charging strategies of the major automakers shifted in the last 6 to 12 months?
  • What factors will determine the rate of adoption of wireless EV charging through 2022?
  • How will the adoption of wireless EV charging influence the overall market for EVs?
Who needs this report?
  • Automakers
  • EV supply equipment (EVSE) suppliers
  • Municipalities and government agencies
  • Integrators and auto supply companies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Market Update

2.1  Introduction to Wireless Electric Vehicle Charging Systems

2.2  Demand Drivers

2.2.1     Convenience

2.2.2     Automaker Incentives

2.3  Market Barriers

2.3.1     Price

2.3.2     Efficiency

2.3.3     Market Size

2.4  Technology Issues

2.4.1     Wireless Power Transfer

2.4.2     Proximity Requirements

2.4.3     Power Transfer Efficiency

2.4.4     Technology Standards

2.4.5     Safety

2.4.6     Dynamic Charging

2.4.7     Charging Stations

2.5  Market Issues and Forecasts

2.6  Key Players

2.6.1     Evatran

2.6.2     Qualcomm

2.6.3     WiTricity

3. Conclusions and Recommendations

List of Charts and Figures

  • Wireless EVSE Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Total EVSE Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Annual Wireless EVSE Unit Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Wireless EV Charging System
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Electric Vehicles: 10 Predictions for 2014 http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-vehicles-10-predictions-for-2014 http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-vehicles-10-predictions-for-2014#comments Mon, 06 Jan 2014 19:25:24 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=60960 Smart Transportation
By the end of 2014, more than 700,000 plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) will be driving on roads around the world. Automakers will introduce several dozen new PEV models – from small city cars to higher-priced luxury vehicles – during the year, offering consumers unprecedented choice in emissions-free driving. The continued penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) [...]]]>
Smart Transportation

By the end of 2014, more than 700,000 plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) will be driving on roads around the world. Automakers will introduce several dozen new PEV models – from small city cars to higher-priced luxury vehicles – during the year, offering consumers unprecedented choice in emissions-free driving. The continued penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) will affect the power grid and revenue streams for automakers, resulting in the emergence of new business models and first-time relationships between new partners. In order to analyze the impacts of these and other key issues facing the EV industry, Navigant Research has prepared this white paper that makes 10 predictions about the continuing evolution of the market in 2014 and beyond.
Topics covered in the paper include:

  • Likelihood of automakers meeting ZEV mandates in U.S. states
  • Diversification of automaker revenue streams to include EV-related services
  • Environmental benefits of EVs
  • Increasing competition in the luxury EV market
  • Commercialization of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs)
  • Participation of vehicles in grid services
  • Development of commercial wireless EV charging

This Navigant Research white paper analyzes 10 key trends that will influence the development of the EV market in 2014 and beyond. Conclusions and predictions in this paper are drawn from Navigant Research’s ongoing Smart Transportation program research coverage, with forecasts included for key market sectors.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What will be the most important developments in the global electric vehicle (EV) industry in 2014?
  • What will be the most important developments in the global two-wheel EV market?
  • How will EVs reshape urban driving and the impact of transportation on the environment?
  • How will the arrival of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) affect the EV industry?
  • Which segments within the EV market will see the most important model launches from automakers?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive OEMs and suppliers
  • EV charging equipment manufacturers
  • Smart grid companies
  • Utilities
  • Fleet managers
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Introduction

2. Electric Vehicles: 10 Predictions for 2014

2.1   Automakers Accelerate Push for Changes in the California ZEV Mandates

2.2   Tesla Motors Will Have a Volatile Year

2.3   Electric Motorcycles Breakout as Transportation Alternative

2.4   EV Makers Pursue Revenue Beyond Vehicle Sales

2.5   Fuel Cell Car Launches Will Spur a New Round of “Fuel Cell Vehicle versus Battery Electric Vehicle” Hype

2.6   EVs Will Play a Leading Role in Carshare Growth

2.7   Wireless Charging Moves from the Lab to the Street

2.8   EVs Will Reduce Vehicle Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the United States by More Than 1 Million Tons

2.9   More Than 2.2 Million Electric-Drive Motors Will Ship in 2014

2.10  Vehicle-to-Grid Pilot Projects will Expand and Begin Generating Revenue across the United States

3.  Acronym and Abbreviation List
4.  Table of Contents
5.  Table of Charts and Figures
6. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts

  • PEV Percentage of Light Duty Vehicle Sales, Eight ZEV States: 2018-2022
  • Annual Light Duty Vehicle Sales for Select Regions: 2014-2022
  • Total Vehicles in Carsharing Services by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Light Duty Electric Vehicle Motor Sales by Vehicle Type, World Markets: 2014
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Second-Life Batteries: From PEVs to Stationary Applications http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/second-life-batteries-from-pevs-to-stationary-applications http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/second-life-batteries-from-pevs-to-stationary-applications#comments Mon, 06 Jan 2014 19:21:42 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=60936 Energy StorageSmart Energy
The first lithium ion (Li-ion) battery-powered plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) were launched in 2010 with the emergence of the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan LEAF, soon to be followed by dozens of other car launches. More than 100,000 PEVs have been sold thus far, and sales volumes are rising fast. The battery packs in these vehicles [...]]]>
Energy StorageSmart Energy

The first lithium ion (Li-ion) battery-powered plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) were launched in 2010 with the emergence of the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan LEAF, soon to be followed by dozens of other car launches. More than 100,000 PEVs have been sold thus far, and sales volumes are rising fast. The battery packs in these vehicles are usually warrantied for 8 to 10 years and, after that period, most will have reduced energy storage capacity. Battery manufacturers expect that those batteries will retain 80% of the original capacity, on average.

At that point, most of the degraded batteries will be taken out of the cars. What will happen to all those used but still capable batteries? The answer lies in reusing them for stationary applications. Reusing salvaged batteries for stationary applications solves a significant problem: new batteries cost too much to allow for their profitable use on the grid. Used but still capable batteries, however, can be sold at a low price and still provide a useful function. Navigant Research forecasts that the global second-life battery business will grow from $16 million in 2014 to $3 billion in 2035.

This Navigant Research report explores the concept of utilizing batteries for second-life applications, such as stationary storage. The study examines the issues related to second-life batteries and suggests moves for stakeholders to help make the concept become a reality. Global forecasts for the availability, capacity, and revenue of these batteries, as well as their future price ceilings, extend through 2035. The report also assesses the market motivators and obstacles for the secondary use of automotive batteries.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How many batteries will be available for second-life purposes over the next 2 decades?
  • What is the expected monetary value of a used vehicle traction battery?
  • What stationary storage applications will most likely benefit from the influx of second-life batteries?
  • What will the residual value of the battery be worth when the car is salvaged?
  • How will future new battery prices affect used battery prices?
Who needs this report?
  • Energy storage project developers
  • Electric utilities
  • Automotive OEMs
  • Battery manufacturers
  • Government agencies and policymakers
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Market Update

2.1   Market Motivators for Secondary Use of Automotive Batteries

2.1.1   Sustainability

2.1.2   Lowest Cost Option

2.1.3   Liability

2.2   Obstacles to Secondary Use of Automotive Batteries

2.2.1   Low Pricing for New Batteries

2.2.2   Institutional Cultural Resistance to Used Products

2.2.3   Excessive Degradation

2.2.4   Physical Refurbishment Obstacles

2.3   Market Forecasts for Second-Life Batteries

2.3.1   Battery Supply Forecast

2.3.2   Revenue Forecast for Second-Life Batteries

3. Conclusions and Recommendations

3.1   Policymaker Recommendations

3.2   Automotive Manufacturer Recommendations

3.3   Second-Life Battery Owner Recommendations

List of Charts

  • Capacity and Revenue of Second-Life Batteries, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Energy Storage Technology Prices by Technology Type, World Markets: 2014
  • Expected Lithium Ion Cell Prices by Sub-Chemistry, World Markets: 2014, 2017, and 2020
  • Second-Life Battery Supply Nameplate Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Second-Life Battery Supply Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2014-2035
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Hybrid and Electric Trucks http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/hybrid-and-electric-trucks http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/hybrid-and-electric-trucks#comments Sat, 28 Dec 2013 00:12:48 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=60628 Smart Transportation
The hybrid and electric truck market experienced a demand surge from 2008 to 2011, even as the broader truck market foundered in the global economic downturn. This surge was due in part to government stimulus spending and in part to the launch of the plug-in hybrid and battery car market, which spurred interest in these [...]]]>
Smart Transportation

The hybrid and electric truck market experienced a demand surge from 2008 to 2011, even as the broader truck market foundered in the global economic downturn. This surge was due in part to government stimulus spending and in part to the launch of the plug-in hybrid and battery car market, which spurred interest in these technologies for other vehicle applications. As of 2013, the economic stimulus programs are winding down and hybrid and electric truck deployments have enabled fleets to gain real world experience with the technologies.

Although many fleets are interested in using these vehicles to support corporate sustainability targets, ultimately most purchasing decisions are driven by cost. Not all applications for hybrid and electric trucks provide sufficient fuel savings to offset the price premium over diesel or gasoline trucks in an acceptable timeframe. Companies thus need to focus on lowering costs and targeting only those end-user markets where the fuel savings of their technologies are optimized. Another strategy for success would be to add value beyond the vehicle drive cycle (e.g., by providing vehicle-to-grid services). Without such strategies, the market will continue to rely heavily on government subsidy programs. Navigant Research forecasts that global annual unit sales for hybrid and electric trucks – including light duty trucks used by commercial fleets and all medium and heavy duty on-road trucks – will rise from under 10,000 in 2013 to more than 100,000 in 2020.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global market for hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), and battery electric vehicle (BEV) trucks. The study provides an analysis of the market issues associated with the light duty (Class 2 equivalent), medium duty, and heavy duty vehicle segments for these technologies, as well as government policies and regulations affecting the market. Global market forecasts, broken out by vehicle segment, drivetrain, and region, extend through 2020. The report also examines the different types of end uses for each technology, elements of the hybrid and electric drive system, competing technologies, and the key players in the market.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What are the most likely end-use applications for hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), and battery electric vehicle (BEV) trucks?
  • What are the strengths and weaknesses of each technology for light, medium, and heavy duty trucks?
  • Which countries are seeing the highest adoption rates of hybrid and electric trucks?
  • How quickly will the HEV, PHEV, and BEV truck market grow in each of the world regions?
  • Who are the key OEMs and drivetrain suppliers in this market?
  • How do HEV, PHEV, and BEV trucks compare with alternative fuel trucks?
Who needs this report?
  • Truck manufacturers
  • Hybrid and electric drive system manufacturers
  • Battery manufacturers and suppliers
  • Electric vehicle charging equipment companies
  • Fleet operators
  • Government agencies and policymakers
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Market Overview

1.2  Key Market Issues

1.3  Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues

2.1  Overview

2.2  Vehicle Classifications

2.2.1   North America

2.2.2   Europe

2.2.3   Asia Pacific

2.3  Navigant Research Classifications

2.3.1   Light Duty Fleet Vehicles

2.3.2   Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks for Fleets

2.3.3   Vehicle Availability and Company Attrition

2.3.4   Vocational Applications for Trucks

2.3.4.1  Delivery Trucks

2.3.4.1.1.   Over-the-Road Tractors

2.3.4.2  Non-Delivery Work Applications

2.3.4.3  Port/Railyard Operations

2.3.5   PHEV and BEV Truck Deployments

2.3.5.1  Military Applications

2.4  Competing Technologies

2.4.1   Gasoline

2.4.2   Hydraulic Hybrids

2.4.3   Natural Gas

2.4.4   Propane

2.4.5   Biofuels

2.4.6   Fuel Cells

2.4.7   Auxiliary Power Units and Truck Stop Electrification

2.4.8   Fleet Management Systems

3. Market Drivers

3.1  Legislation and Regulations

3.1.1   North America

3.1.1.1  U.S. States

3.1.2   Canada

3.1.3   Europe

3.1.4   Asia Pacific

3.1.4.1  China

3.1.4.2  Japan

3.2  Total Cost of Ownership Benefits

3.2.1   Fuel Prices

3.2.2   Recovery of Cost Premiums

3.2.3   Maintenance Costs

3.2.4   Total Cost of Ownership Analysis

3.3  Going Green and the Influence of High-Profile Fleets

3.4  Idle Reduction

3.5  Vehicle to Grid

3.6  Assessment of the Key Drivers for Electric Drive Trucks

4. Technology Issues

4.1  Hybrid and Electric Drivetrains for Trucks

4.1.1   Parallel Hybrid Electric Design

4.1.2   Series Hybrid Electric Design

4.2  ePTO Hybrids

4.3  Plug-In Hybrid Drive

4.4  Battery Trucks

4.5  Elements of the Hybrid and Electric Drive System

4.5.1   Regenerative Braking

4.5.2   Electric Motors

4.5.3   Battery Technology

4.5.4   Ultracapacitors

4.5.5   Battery Size for Hybrid Trucks

4.5.6   Recharging Infrastructure

4.5.7   Onboard Diagnostics Systems in California

5. Key Industry Players

5.1  Original Equipment Manufacturers or Chassis Manufacturers

5.1.1   AMP Electric

5.1.2   Balqon Corporation

5.1.3   Boulder Electric Vehicle

5.1.4   Crane Carrier Company

5.1.5   Daimler AG

5.1.6   Electric Vehicles International

5.1.7   Ford Motor Co.

5.1.8   Hino Motors, Ltd.

5.1.9   Iveco

5.1.10  MAN SE

5.1.11  Navistar and International Truck and Engine Corp.

5.1.12  Nissan

5.1.13  PACCAR/Kenworth/Peterbilt/DAF

5.1.14  Smith Electric Vehicles

5.1.15  Volvo Group Global/Renault Trucks/Mack Trucks

5.1.16  ZeroTruck

5.2  Suppliers

5.2.1   Allison Transmission

5.2.2   ALTe Powertrain

5.2.3   Altec, Inc.

5.2.4   BAE Systems

5.2.5   Eaton Corp.

5.2.6   Inventev

5.2.7   Odyne Systems

5.2.8   Siemens

5.2.9   Terex Utilities

5.2.10  TM4

5.2.11  TransPower

5.2.12  UQM Technologies

5.2.13  VIA Motors

5.2.14  Wrightspeed

5.2.15  XL Hybrids

5.2.16  ZF Friedrichshafen AG

5.3  Other Entities

5.3.1   CALSTART

5.3.2   Duke Energy

5.3.3   FleetCarma

5.3.4   Pacific Gas & Electric

5.3.5   Southern California Edison

6. Market Forecasts

6.1  Global Fleet Vehicle Forecasts

6.2  Global Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid, and Battery Electric Truck Forecasts

6.2.1   Global Hybrid Truck Sales

6.2.2   Global Plug-In Hybrid Truck Sales

6.2.3   Global Battery Electric Truck Sales

6.2.4   HEV, PHEV, and BEV Truck Sales by Region

6.2.5   Global MD and HD Truck Sales by Drivetrain Type

6.3  Conclusions and Recommendations

7. Company Directory
8. Acronym and Abbreviation List
9. Table of Contents
10. Table of Charts and Figures
11. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Light, Medium, and Heavy Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Electric Drivetrain, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Average Diesel Price by Key Country, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual Light Duty Fleet Vehicle Sales (Cars and Trucks) by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • HEV, PHEV, and BEV Fleet Truck Sales by Vehicle Segment, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • HEV Fleet Truck Sales by Vehicle Segment, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • PHEV Fleet Truck Sales by Vehicle Segment, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • BEV Fleet Truck Sales by Vehicle Segment, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • HEV, BEV, and PHEV Fleet Truck Sales (All Vehicle Segments) by Region: 2013-2020
  • Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Alternative Drivetrain, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Fleet Truck Sales by Electric Drivetrain, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Federal Vehicle Weight Classifications, United States
  • Cutaway Cab and Stripped-Chassis Vehicles
  • HTUF Class 4 Parcel Drive Cycle
  • Utility Service Truck Drive Cycle
  • Cab-and-Chassis Vehicles

List of Tables

  • Vehicle Weight Classifications, European Union
  • Vehicle Weight Classifications, Navigant Research
  • Global Availability of HEV, PHEV, and BEV Light Duty Vehicle Models, Top Markets: 2014
  • Selected Hybrid Trucks Available, World Markets: 2013
  • Selected Plug-In Hybrid Trucks Available or Being Developed, World Markets: 2013
  • Selected Battery Electric Trucks Available or Being Developed, World Markets: 2013
  • Selected PHEV and BEV Trucks in Service or Pending Deployment (2,935 in Total), World Markets: 2013
  • Truck Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations, United States: Model Year 2017-2018
  • Vocational Vehicle Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations, United States: Model Year 2017
  • Hybrid Voucher Incentive Project, California: Proposed 2013-2014
  • Average New Vehicle Fuel Economy by Vehicle Type and Year, China: 2005-2030
  • Typical Truck Costs by Vehicle Part
  • Truck Total Cost of Ownership
  • Vehicle Operating Costs by System, FedEx Express: 2011
  • FleetCarma Analysis of Vehicle Savings
  • Average Gasoline Price by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Average Diesel Price by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Average Spot Price of Crude Oil, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Battery Type Comparison
  • Battery Size Used by Selected HEV, PHEV, and BEV Trucks
  • Annual Light Duty Fleet Vehicle Sales (Cars and Trucks) by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual HEV Light Duty Fleet Vehicle Sales (Cars and Trucks) by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual PHEV Light Duty Fleet Vehicle Sales (Cars and Trucks) by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual BEV Light Duty Fleet Vehicle Sales (Cars and Trucks) by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual HEV/PHEV/BEV Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual HEV/PHEV/BEV Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales as Percentage of Total Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual HEV Light Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual HEV Medium Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual HEV Heavy Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual PHEV Light Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual PHEV Medium Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual PHEV Heavy Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual BEV Light Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual BEV Medium Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual BEV Heavy Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • HEV Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales as Percentage of Total Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • PHEV Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales as Percentage of Total Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • BEV Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales as Percentage of Total Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • HEV, PHEV, and BEV Fleet Truck Sales by Vehicle Segment, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Light, Medium, and Heavy Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Electric Drivetrain, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • HEV, PHEV, and BEV Fleet Truck Sales (All Vehicle Segments) by Region: 2013-2020
  • Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Alternative Drivetrain, World Markets: 2013-2020
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Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-vehicle-consumer-survey http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-vehicle-consumer-survey#comments Tue, 12 Nov 2013 07:06:07 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=59199 Smart Transportation
Alternative fuel vehicles, particularly battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), are a small but growing portion of the automotive market. Following the commercial introduction of these vehicles in 2010, BEV and PHEV sales volume has grown significantly over the last several years, with new auto manufacturers bringing models to market and [...]]]>
Smart Transportation

Alternative fuel vehicles, particularly battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), are a small but growing portion of the automotive market. Following the commercial introduction of these vehicles in 2010, BEV and PHEV sales volume has grown significantly over the last several years, with new auto manufacturers bringing models to market and existing manufacturers reducing pricing.

Consumers generally hold positive views of electric vehicles (EVs), as well as hybrids and natural gas-powered cars. However, even under several different scenarios, interest in BEVs and PHEVs remains below the 50% mark, indicating that consumers like the idea of EVs but may not be won over by the features and price points. Navigant Research forecasts that shipments of BEVs and PHEVs in the United States will reach 30,195 and 59,106, respectively, by the end of 2013. By 2020, shipments of these vehicles are expected to reach 130,641 and 210,772, respectively.

This Navigant Research report details the findings from a web-based EV consumer survey of 1,084 consumers in the United States. The study, which was executed in the fall of 2013 using a nationally representative and demographically balanced sample, aims to provide a better understanding of consumer attitudes toward alternative fuel vehicles, with an emphasis on electric vehicles. Levels of consumer interest in EVs, familiarity with EV models, and overall vehicle considerations are assessed. The survey also examines consumer receptiveness to several BEV and PHEV options and public charging stations.

Key Questions Addressed
  • How do consumers view alternative fuel vehicles?
  • Which brands, makes, and models of alternative fuel vehicles are familiar to consumers?
  • What type of drivetrains do consumers prefer?
  • Which vehicle features garner the most interest from consumers?
  • How open are consumers to the idea of public charging stations?
  • How much are consumers willing to pay for public charging services?
Who needs this report?
  • Vehicle manufacturers
  • Vehicle component suppliers
  • Charging equipment manufacturers
  • Battery manufacturers
  • Industry associations
  • Utilities
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Overview

1.2   Key Findings

2. Driver Profile

2.1   Vehicle Ownership

3. Interest in Electric Vehicles

3.1   Overall Interest

3.2   EV Brand Preference

4. Vehicle Familiarity and Opinions

4.1   Model Familiarity and Value

4.2   Consumer Opinions

5. Next Vehicle Preference 

5.1   Drivetrain Preference

5.2   Vehicle Options and Pricing Preferences

6. Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure

6.1   Interest in Public Charging Stations

7. Summary and Conclusions

7.1   Consumer Interest

7.2   Model Familiarity

7.3   Engine, Body Type, and Option Preferences

7.4   Public Charging Stations

8. Acronym and Abbreviation List
9. Table of Contents
10. Table of Charts and Figures

11. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, and Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Favorability Ratings by Alternative Fuel Vehicle Type, United States: 2013
  • Vehicle Ownership, United States: 2013
  • Vehicle Ownership by Drivetrain, United States: 2013
  • Interest in a BEV at the $26,000 Price Point, United States: 2013
  • Likelihood to Purchase a BEV at the $15,000 Price Point with a Battery Lease, United States: 2013
  • Interest in a PHEV at the $28,000 Price Point, United States: 2013
  • EV Preference by Brand, United States: 2013
  • Familiarity with Alternative Fuel Vehicle Models, United States: 2013
  • Value for Price by Alternative Fuel Vehicle Model, United States: 2013
  • Consumer Opinion on EVs, United States: 2013
  • Next Vehicle Drivetrain Preferences, United States: 2013
  • First or Second Choice Plug-In Electric Vehicle Drivetrain Preference by Adopter Status, United States: 2013
  • Vehicle Body Type Preference, United States: 2013
  • Vehicle Body Type Preference by First or Second Choice Plug-In Electric Vehicle Drivetrain Preference, United States: 2013
  • Vehicle Options Preference, United States: 2013
  • Vehicle Options Preference by First or Second Choice Plug-In Electric Vehicle Drivetrain Preference, United States: 2013
  • Anticipated Price for Next Vehicle After Incentives, United States: 2013
  • Interest in Public Charging Stations, United States: 2013
  • Price Willing to Pay per Charge, United States: 2013
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