Navigant Research » Smart Transportation http://www.navigantresearch.com Fri, 22 Aug 2014 00:23:43 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.8.1 Transportation Forecast: Global Fuel Consumption http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/transportation-forecast-global-fuel-consumption http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/transportation-forecast-global-fuel-consumption#comments Fri, 25 Jul 2014 16:55:33 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=67902 Transportation Forecast
Reducing the transportation sector’s dependence on oil has long been a policy goal of governments globally. The sector’s overwhelming dependence on the resource results in major costs that affect energy security, environmental security, and economic stability for nations globally. More than 1.2 billion vehicles are on the world’s roads today, with nearly 98% being powered [...]]]>
Transportation Forecast

Reducing the transportation sector’s dependence on oil has long been a policy goal of governments globally. The sector’s overwhelming dependence on the resource results in major costs that affect energy security, environmental security, and economic stability for nations globally. More than 1.2 billion vehicles are on the world’s roads today, with nearly 98% being powered by blends of gasoline or diesel. Governments have initiated a number of policies aimed at reducing oil consumption, including subsidizing alternative fuels and alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), biofuels mandates, and higher fuel economy requirements for new vehicles.

Markets for both vehicles and fuels have gradually begun to respond to these government programs, and alternative fuels are beginning to have an impact on global oil demand. The shape and form of road transportation alternative fuels markets vary by region, largely influenced by government regulations, local resources, infrastructure, and fuel prices. For instance, markets for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are particularly strong in Eastern Europe, Turkey, and South Korea, but relatively mute elsewhere. As such, no one alternative fuel has been pinpointed as the perfect alternative fuel solution. Navigant Research forecasts that annual energy consumption in the global road transportation sector will grow from 81.1 quadrillion Btu in 2014 to 101.7 quadrillion Btu in 2035.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global road transportation fuels market by alternative fuel and vehicle segment (light duty vehicles and medium and heavy duty vehicles). Analysis and data are provided for the following fuels: gasoline, diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, drop-in biofuels, natural gas, LPG, electricity, and hydrogen. Global market forecasts for energy, oil, and fuel consumption, segmented by country and vehicle segment, extend through 2035.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What is the overall impact of alternative fuels and alternative fuel vehicles on the global fuels supply and market?
  • What impact are advances in vehicle fuel economy having on the conventional fuels (gasoline and diesel) supply and markets?
  • What are the fastest-growing alternative fuels by region?
  • What are the major factors and variables in assessing demand for road transportation fuels?
  • What are the market drivers and challenges for each fuel type?
Who needs this report?
  • Utilities
  • Electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) providers and manufacturers
  • Oil & gas companies
  • Biofuels producers
  • Natural gas and hydrogen infrastructure developers
  • Battery suppliers
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Market Overview

1.2  Scope

1.3  Market Forecasts

2. Market Forecasts

2.1  Introduction

2.2  Methodology

2.2.1   Major Variables

   2.2.1.1  Fuel Price

   2.2.1.2  VMT

   2.2.1.3  Fuel Economy

   2.2.1.4  Biofuels Penetration

2.2.2   Conversions

2.3  Oil

2.4  Gasoline

2.5  Diesel

2.6  Biofuels

2.6.1   Ethanol

2.6.2   Biodiesel

2.6.3   Drop-In

2.7  Natural Gas

2.8  LPG

2.9  Electricity

2.10 Hydrogen

2.11 Conclusions and Recommendations

3. Acronym and Abbreviation List
4. Table of Contents
5. Table of Charts and Figures
6. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Sales Weighted Average Fuel Retail Price, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Oil Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Gasoline Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Diesel Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Biofuels Consumption by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Natural Gas Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector LPG Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Electricity Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Hydrogen Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Navigant Research Global Fuel Consumption Forecast Model

List of Tables

  • Gasoline Price by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Diesel Price by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Residential Electricity Rates by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • CNG Price by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LPG Price by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Energy Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV Energy Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV Energy Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Fuel Consumption by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Oil Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV Oil Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV Oil Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Gasoline Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV Gasoline Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV Gasoline Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Diesel Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV Diesel Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV Diesel Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Ethanol Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Biodiesel Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Drop-In Biofuels Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Natural Gas Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV Natural Gas Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV Natural Gas Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV LNG Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector LPG Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV LPG Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV LPG Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Electricity Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV Electricity Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV Electricity Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Hydrogen Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV Hydrogen Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV Hydrogen Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
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Autonomous Vehicles http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/autonomous-vehicles http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/autonomous-vehicles#comments Wed, 09 Jul 2014 13:37:07 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=67287 Smart Transportation
Combinations of advanced driver assistance features that can enable semi-autonomous driving are now being brought to market for the first time. Increasing volumes and technology improvements mean that it is feasible to install the multiple sensors necessary for such capability thanks to cost reductions. Simple automated driving functions such as keeping in lane while adjusting [...]]]>
Smart Transportation

Combinations of advanced driver assistance features that can enable semi-autonomous driving are now being brought to market for the first time. Increasing volumes and technology improvements mean that it is feasible to install the multiple sensors necessary for such capability thanks to cost reductions. Simple automated driving functions such as keeping in lane while adjusting speed to the vehicle in front are currently being introduced. The industry consensus is that the first more comprehensive self-driving features will be brought to market by 2020, but significant hurdles remain. However, the obstacles are not all technological. Due to advances in computing power and software development, challenges such as image processing and sensor fusion are now ready for production use, and supervised decision-making software is being trialed on public roads. While more testing is still needed to develop robustness, the biggest practical hurdles before rollout to the public are those of liability, regulation, and legislation. In the long term, the technology has the potential to institute major changes in personal mobility, particularly in large cities. Navigant Research forecasts that 94.7 million autonomous-capable vehicles will be sold annually around the world by 2035. This Navigant Research report analyzes the emerging global market for advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) leading to semi-autonomous and autonomous driving. The study provides a discussion of the benefits of self-driving vehicles and barriers to implementation. Global market forecasts for autonomous-capable vehicle sales and volumes of key autonomous driving features and associated revenue, segmented by region and feature, extend through 2035. The report also provides a review of the core driver assistance technologies that make self-driving vehicles possible, as well as in-depth profiles of the leading industry players.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What are the key technologies for autonomous driving?
  • Which will be the first self-driving features to come to market?
  • When will the first autonomous vehicles be available?
  • What are the major benefits of autonomous vehicles?
  • How fast will the market for autonomous driving technologies grow?
  • How much revenue can be expected from autonomous driving features?
  • Who are the key players working on autonomous driving technologies?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive industry suppliers
  • Vehicle manufacturers
  • City managers
  • Fleet managers
  • Insurance companies
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Self-Driving Vehicles

1.2  Market Drivers

1.3  Technology Issues

1.4  Forecast Highlights

2. Market Drivers  

2.1  Vision for the Long Term

2.1.1   Consumer Market

2.1.2   Fleet Market

2.1.3   Neighborhood Delivery

2.1.4   Evolution

2.1.5   Revolution

2.2  Benefits of Fully Autonomous Vehicles

2.2.1   Traffic Flow

2.2.2   Eliminating Collisions

2.2.3   Productivity

2.2.4   Carsharing

2.2.5   Smart Cities

2.3  Barriers to Implementation

2.3.1   Customer Concerns

2.3.2   Legislation and Government Activity

2.3.3   Insurance and Liability

2.3.4   OEMs Adopting a New Business Model

3. Technology Issues

3.1  Underlying Technology

3.1.1   Advanced Driver Assistance Systems

3.1.2   Vehicle-to-X

3.1.3   Navigation Systems

3.2  Levels of Autonomy

3.2.1   Adaptive Speed Control

3.2.2   Automatic Emergency Braking

3.2.3   Automatic Lane Maintain

3.2.4   Freeway Driving Mode

3.2.5   Traffic Jam Mode

3.2.6   Autonomous Parking System

3.2.7   Self-Driving Mode

3.2.8   Autonomous Driving

3.3  High-Level Software

3.4  Hardware Demands

3.5  Pilot Programs and Testing

3.5.1   Milton Keynes

3.5.2   Gothenburg

3.5.3   Michigan

3.5.4   Netherlands

3.5.5   New York

3.5.6   Human Factors of Automated Driving

3.5.7   Google

3.5.8   Zoox

4. Key Industry Players

4.1  OEMs

4.1.1   Audi AG

4.1.2   BMW AG

4.1.3   Daimler AG

4.1.4   Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV

4.1.5   Ford Motor Company

4.1.6   GM

4.1.7   Honda Motor Company

4.1.8   Hyundai

4.1.9   Mazda

4.1.10   Mitsubishi Motors Corp.

4.1.11   Nissan Motor Company

4.1.12   PSA Peugeot Citroën

4.1.13   Renault S.A.

4.1.14   Tesla Motors

4.1.15   Toyota Motor Corp.

4.1.16   Volvo Car Corp.

4.1.17   VW

4.2  Major Suppliers

4.2.1   Aisin

4.2.2   Autoliv Inc.

4.2.3   Continental AG

4.2.4   Delphi Automotive

4.2.5   DENSO Corp.

4.2.6   Harman International Industries

4.2.7   Hella KGaA Hueck & Co.

4.2.8   Magna International

4.2.9   Robert Bosch GmbH

4.2.10   TRW Automotive

4.2.11   Valeo

4.3  Computer Hardware and Software Companies

4.3.1   Altera Corp.

4.3.2   Autotalks

4.3.3   Cisco Systems

4.3.4   Cohda Wireless

4.3.5   Covisint

4.3.6   Freescale Semiconductor

4.3.7   Google Inc.

4.3.8   Intel

4.3.9   Microsoft

4.3.10   Mobileye

4.3.11   Nvidia

4.3.12   QNX Software Systems Ltd.

4.3.13   Texas Instruments

4.4  Other Industry Participants

4.4.1   2getthere

4.4.2   Connected Vehicle Trade Association

4.4.3   Freie Universität Berlin

4.4.4   Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan

4.4.5   Ultra Global

4.4.6   Other Organizations

5. Market Forecasts  

5.1  Global Forecasts

5.2  Regional Forecasts

5.3  Technology Forecasts

5.3.1   ASC

5.3.2   AEB

5.3.3   ALM

5.3.4   FDM

5.3.5   TJM

5.3.6   APS

5.3.7   SDM

5.3.8   Autonomous Driving

5.4  Market Value

5.5  Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Company Directory
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List
8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Autonomous-Capable Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous-Capable Vehicle Penetration Rate by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Take Rate Percentage by Autonomous Driving Feature, World Markets: 2012-2035
  • ASC Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • AEB Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • ALM Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • FDM Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • TJM Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • APS Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • SDM Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Features Value by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, North America: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, Western Europe: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, Eastern Europe: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, Asia Pacific: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, Latin America: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, Middle East & Africa: 2015-2035
  • ADAS Applications

List of Tables

  • Autonomous-Capable Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • ADAS in Production by Country, United States and United Kingdom: 2014 Models*
  • Estimated Market Price by Autonomous Driving Feature, World Markets: 2015
  • Autonomous Driving Features Market Percentage by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Features Value by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Light Duty Vehicle Market Percentage by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous-Capable Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous-Capable Vehicle Penetration Rate by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Adaptive Speed Control Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Automatic Emergency Braking Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Automatic Lane Maintain Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Freeway Driving Mode Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Traffic Jam Mode Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Parking System Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Self-Driving Mode Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, North America: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, Western Europe: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, Eastern Europe: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, Asia Pacific: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, Latin America: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, Middle East & Africa: 2015-2035
  • Other Organizations Active in Some Aspect of Autonomous Driving
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Transportation Forecast: Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/transportation-forecast-medium-and-heavy-duty-vehicles http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/transportation-forecast-medium-and-heavy-duty-vehicles#comments Tue, 01 Jul 2014 00:09:49 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=66812 Transportation Forecast
The global medium and heavy duty vehicle (MHDV) market is changing rapidly, due to rising fuel costs and environmental concerns that are pushing commercial and government fleet operators to consider investments in fuel efficiency technologies and alternative fuels. Navigant Research projects that today more than 1.2 billion light, medium, and heavy duty vehicles are on [...]]]>
Transportation Forecast

The global medium and heavy duty vehicle (MHDV) market is changing rapidly, due to rising fuel costs and environmental concerns that are pushing commercial and government fleet operators to consider investments in fuel efficiency technologies and alternative fuels. Navigant Research projects that today more than 1.2 billion light, medium, and heavy duty vehicles are on roads, and less than 5% belong to the MHDV segment. Of these vehicles, over 94% utilize a conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) powered by either gasoline or diesel.

Though the MHDV segment commands a small portion of the total vehicle landscape, it consumes a far greater portion of the total fuel and energy consumed in the road transportation sector because of the low average fuel economy and high annual mileage typical of MHDVs. The MHDV markets’ dependency on oil has pushed governments to examine programs that will speed the adoption of alternative fuel technologies. Less expensive alternatives to petroleum-based fuels, such as natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG – also known as propane or autogas), and electricity, are beginning to make inroads, as fleet managers can see a return on investment in as few as 3 years given the right circumstances. Navigant Research forecasts that global annual MHDV sales and conversions will grow from 4.3 million vehicles in 2014 to 7.1 million in 2035.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global MHDV market in seven segments: conventional ICE vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), natural gas vehicles (NGVs), propane autogas vehicles (PAGVs), and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). Forecasts for two segments fueled primarily by petroleum derivatives (ICE vehicles and HEVs) are broken out by region and by fuel: gasoline or diesel. Global market forecasts for sales and conversions and the number of vehicles in use, segmented by country, drivetrain, and primary fuel, extend through 2035.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What are the markets for each alternative fuel: electricity, hydrogen, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas?
  • What are the best opportunities for alternative fuel technologies within the medium and heavy duty vehicle (MHDV) classes?
  • What impacts will natural gas, propane autogas, plug-in electric, and fuel cell vehicles have on the energy industry?
  • What will the global MHDV fleet look like in 2035?
  • How will the many end uses of commercial MHDVs present opportunities for alternatives such as liquefied natural gas?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive OEMs
  • EV supply equipment (EVSE) providers and manufacturers
  • Oil & gas companies
  • Natural gas and hydrogen infrastructure developers
  • Battery suppliers
  • Utilities
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Market Overview

1.2  Scope

1.3  Market Forecasts

2. Market Forecasts

2.1  Scope

2.2  MHDVs

2.2.1   HEVs

2.2.2   PHEVs

2.2.3   BEVs

2.2.4   NGVs

2.2.5   PAGVs

2.2.6   FCVs

2.3  Conclusions and Recommendations

3. Acronym and Abbreviation List
4. Table of Contents
5. Table of Charts and Figures
6. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • MHDVs in Use by Vehicle Drivetrain, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • MHDVs in Use by Primary Fuel, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual MHDV Sales and Conversions by Primary Fuel, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual MHDV Sales and Conversions by Vehicle Drivetrain, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual MHDV Sales and Conversions by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual MHD HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual MHD PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual MHD BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual MHD NGV Sales and Conversions by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual MHD PAGV Sales and Conversions by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual MHD FCV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • MHDVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • MHD HEVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • MHD PHEVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • MHD BEVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • MHD NGVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • MHD PAGVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • MHD FCVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual MHD Conventional ICE Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • MHD Conventional ICE Vehicles in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035

List of Tables

  • Annual MHDV Sales and Conversions by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHDVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD HEV Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD Hybrid Electric Diesel Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD Hybrid Electric Gasoline Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD HEVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD Hybrid Electric Diesel Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD Hybrid Electric Gasoline Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD PHEV Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD Plug-In Hybrid Electric Diesel Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD Plug-In Hybrid Electric Gasoline Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD PHEVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD Plug-In Hybrid Electric Diesel Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD Plug-In Hybrid Electric Gasoline Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD BEV Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD BEVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD NGV Sales and Conversions by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD CNG Vehicle Sales and Conversions by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual HD LNG Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD NGVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD CNG Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD LNG Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD PAGV Sales and Conversions by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD PAGVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD FCV Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD FCVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD Conventional ICE Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD Conventional Diesel Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD Conventional Gasoline Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD Conventional Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD Conventional Diesel Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD Conventional Gasoline Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
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Transportation Forecast: Light Duty Vehicles http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/transportation-forecast-light-duty-vehicles http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/transportation-forecast-light-duty-vehicles#comments Mon, 19 May 2014 22:41:45 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=65218 Transportation Forecast
Driven by rising fuel costs and environmental concerns, the global light duty vehicle (LDV) market is changing rapidly through the adoption of vehicles with various levels of drivetrain electrification and vehicles that run on alternative fuels entirely. Over 1.2 billion vehicles are on the world’s roads today, and more than 95% belong to the LDV [...]]]>
Transportation Forecast

Driven by rising fuel costs and environmental concerns, the global light duty vehicle (LDV) market is changing rapidly through the adoption of vehicles with various levels of drivetrain electrification and vehicles that run on alternative fuels entirely. Over 1.2 billion vehicles are on the world’s roads today, and more than 95% belong to the LDV segment. Of these vehicles, over 98% utilize a conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) powered by either gasoline or diesel.

While most governments have supported a comprehensive strategy to reduce oil dependency in the transportation sector, the depth of that support varies with each vehicle technology. Additionally, regional fuel costs and refueling infrastructure availability play a major role in consumer acceptance of alternative fuels regardless of government backing. As such, the adoption of light duty (LD) alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) and fuel efficient technologies varies from region to region. Nonetheless, the increased adoption of drivetrain electrification and alternative fuels will have considerable impacts on the markets for LDVs, fuel infrastructure development, and energy demand. Navigant Research forecasts that global annual LDV sales will grow from nearly 84.1 million vehicles in 2014 to 126.9 million in 2035.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global LDV market in seven segments: stop-start vehicles (SSVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), natural gas vehicles (NGVs), fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), and conventional ICE vehicles. Forecasts for the segments fueled by petroleum derivatives (SSVs, HEVs, PHEVs, and ICE vehicles) are broken out by region and by fuel: gasoline or diesel. Global market forecasts for sales and the number of vehicles in use, segmented by country, drivetrain, and primary fuel, extend through 2035.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How is the global light duty vehicle (LDV) market changing due to alternative fuel technologies?
  • What are the fastest-growing regional markets for vehicles with electrified internal combustion engines?
  • What impacts will natural gas and plug-in electric vehicles have on the energy industry?
  • What will the global LDV fleet look like in 2035?
  • How and where will diesel vehicles be incorporated into internal combustion engine electrification?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive OEMs
  • EV supply equipment (EVSE) providers and manufacturers
  • Oil & gas companies
  • Natural gas and hydrogen infrastructure developers
  • Battery suppliers
  • Utilities
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Market Overview

1.2  Scope

1.3  Market Forecasts

2. Market Forecasts  

2.1  Introduction

2.2  LDVs

2.2.1   SSVs

2.2.2   HEVs

2.2.3   AFVs

   2.2.3.1  PHEVs

   2.2.3.2  BEVs

   2.2.3.3  NGVs

   2.2.3.4  FCVs

2.3  Conclusions and Recommendations

3. Acronym and Abbreviation List
4. Table of Contents
5. Table of Charts and Figures
6. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • LDVs in Use by Drivetrain, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LDVs in Use by Primary Fuel, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LDV Sales by Drivetrain, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LDV Sales by Primary Fuel, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LD SSV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LD HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LDV Market Share by Segment, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LD PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LD BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LD NGV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LD FCV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LD Conventional ICE Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LDVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD SSVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD HEVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD PHEVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD BEVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD NGVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD FCVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD Conventional ICE Vehicles in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035

List of Tables

  • Annual LDV Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LDVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD SSV Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD Stop-Start Diesel Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD Stop-Start Gasoline Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD SSVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD Stop-Start Diesel Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD Stop-Start Gasoline Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD HEV Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD Hybrid Electric Diesel Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD Hybrid Electric Gasoline Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD HEVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD Hybrid Electric Diesel Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD Hybrid Electric Gasoline Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD PHEV Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD Plug-In Hybrid Electric Diesel Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD Plug-In Hybrid Electric Gasoline Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD PHEVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD Plug-In Hybrid Electric Diesel Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD Plug-In Hybrid Electric Gasoline Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD BEV Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD BEVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD NGV Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD NGVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD FCV Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD FCVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD Conventional ICE Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD Conventional Diesel Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD Conventional Gasoline Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD Conventional Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD Conventional Diesel Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD Conventional Gasoline Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
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Electric Motorcycles and Scooters http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-motorcycles-and-scooters http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-motorcycles-and-scooters#comments Wed, 07 May 2014 17:15:54 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=65002 Smart Transportation
Coming out of a tough economic period, the power two-wheeler (PTW) vehicle industry, which includes electric motorcycles (e-motorcycles) and electric scooters (e-scooters), has been growing slowly over the last couple of years. In the near term, sales volumes are likely to be low due to continued high costs for components and low levels of demand. [...]]]>
Smart Transportation

Coming out of a tough economic period, the power two-wheeler (PTW) vehicle industry, which includes electric motorcycles (e-motorcycles) and electric scooters (e-scooters), has been growing slowly over the last couple of years. In the near term, sales volumes are likely to be low due to continued high costs for components and low levels of demand. Yet, the market seems poised for growth in many regions later this decade as consumer markets continue to increase, new competitors enter, and suppliers increase capabilities.

The electric PTW (e-PTW) market is led by China, where the majority of the world’s e-motorcycles and e-scooters are sold. However, since policies and demand in China indicate reduced sales in that country, the e-motorcycle and e-scooter markets are growing in other regions. Consumers are seeking refuge from higher gasoline prices, e-PTW vehicles are growing more mature, and cities are becoming increasingly congested with traffic. Overall, though, the market for e-PTWs continues to face numerous challenges, including high costs, limited vehicle availability, poor product performance, and a financial shakedown. Navigant Research forecasts that global annual sales of e-motorcycles will grow from 1.2 million vehicles in 2014 to 1.4 million in 2023, while sales of e-scooters will grow from 4.1 million to 4.6 million.

This Navigant Research report examines the global markets for high-powered and low-powered e-motorcycles, e-scooters, and the related battery technologies. The study provides an analysis of the market drivers and barriers and key technology issues related to e-PTWs, as well as the impact of government influence. Global forecasts for e-PTWs and the batteries used in the vehicles, segmented by region, technology, and internal combustion engine (ICE) motor size equivalent, extend through 2023. The report also examines the market for gasoline motorcycles and scooters, battery market issues, the effect of electric vehicle (EV) charging equipment, and the major industry players.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How will the gasoline motorcycle and scooter markets affect the electric power two-wheeler (e-PTW) market?
  • How will the electric car market influence the e-motorcycle and e-scooter markets?
  • What are the key drivers of growth in the e-motorcycle and e-scooter markets?
  • How many e-PTWs will sell in the next few years?
  • What are the different types of batteries used in e-motorcycles and e-scooters?
  • How fast will lithium ion batteries penetrate the e-PTW market?
  • Who are the key industry players in the e-motorcycle and e-scooter markets?
Who needs this report?
  • Motorcycle and scooter OEMs
  • Battery manufacturers
  • EV component suppliers
  • EV charging equipment manufacturers
  • Fleet managers
  • Utilities
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Market Issues

1.2  Technology Issues

1.3  Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues

2.1  Definitions

2.2  ICE Motorcycle and Scooter Markets Drivers

2.2.1   North America

2.2.2   Europe

2.2.3   Asia Pacific

2.2.4   Latin America

2.2.5   Middle East & Africa

2.3  E-Motorcycle/E-Scooter Segmentation

2.3.1   Fleet Usage

2.3.1.1  Delivery

2.3.1.2  Police/Security

2.3.1.3  Rental Service

2.3.2   Performance Motorcycles

2.3.2.1  E-Motorcycle Racing Circuit

2.3.2.2  Off-Road

2.3.3   Commuting/Transportation

2.3.3.1  Product Segmentation Challenges in Asia Pacific

2.3.3.2  Fuel Costs for Internal Combustion Engine Power Two-Wheelers

2.4  Interaction with the Light Duty Vehicle Market

2.4.1   Impact of Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment Installations

2.4.2   E-Scooters from Automotive Brands

2.4.2.1  Vectrix Impact on Potential Automotive E-Scooters

2.4.3   The Tesla Motors Business Model

2.5  Government Influence

2.5.1   Traffic and Emissions Restrictions

2.6  Battery Market Issues

2.6.1   Demand and Cost for Lead-Acid

2.6.1.1  China Lead-Acid Battery Limitations

2.6.2   Demand and Cost for Li-Ion

2.6.3   Removable Battery Trends

2.7  Market Barriers

2.7.1   Costs

2.7.2   Vehicle Availability and Product Performance

2.7.3   Geography and Climate

2.7.4   Market Shake Out

3. Technology Issues

3.1  Battery Technology

3.1.1   SLA

3.1.2   NiMH

3.1.3   Li-ion

3.1.3.1  Lithium Iron Phosphate

3.1.3.2  Lithium Metal Chemistries

3.2  Battery Management

3.3  Electric Motors

3.4  Regenerative Braking

3.5  Vehicle Drivetrain Component Costs Trends

3.6  Vehicle Connectivity

3.7  Vehicle Recharging

4. Key Industry Players

4.1  Key OEMs

4.1.1   BMW Motorrad International

4.1.2   Brammo, Inc.

4.1.3   GOVECS

4.1.4   iO Scooter

4.1.5   Jiangsu Xinri E-Vehicle Co., Ltd.

4.1.6   Terra Motors

4.1.7   Vmoto Ltd.

4.1.8   Zero Motorcycles, Inc.

4.2  Key Industry Suppliers

4.2.1   Flextronics

4.2.2   Panasonic/Sanyo

4.2.3   Parker Hannafin

4.2.4   Samsung SDI

4.2.5   Sevcon

4.2.6   Tianneng Power International Ltd.

4.3  Industry Participants

4.3.1   AllCell Technologies

4.3.2   BOXX Corp

4.3.3   BRD Motorcycles

4.3.4   Chaowei Power

4.3.5   Elmoto (ID Bike, GmbH)

4.3.6   e-Moto LLC

4.3.7   Honda

4.3.8   Huafu High Technology Energy Storage Co., Ltd.

4.3.9   KLD Energy Technologies, Inc.

4.3.10 KTM

4.3.11  Lightning Motorcycles

4.3.12  Mahindra GenZe

4.3.13  Mission Motors

4.3.14  Peugeot Scooters

4.3.15  Suzuki

4.3.16  SYM

4.3.17  Yamaha Motor Co.

4.4  Other Industry Participants

5. Market Forecasts

5.1  Motorcycle and Scooter Market

5.2  E- Scooter Market

5.3  E-Motorcycle Market

5.4  E-PTW Segmentation by Motor Size

5.5  E-PTW Segmentation by Battery Type

5.6  Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Company Directory
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List
8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Installed Energy Storage Energy Capacity in Microgrids by Technology, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Annual Sales of E-Scooters and E-Motorcycles by Type, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Retail Gasoline Prices by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Advanced Battery Energy Storage Capacity by Segment, World Markets: 2012
  • Estimated Annual Gas-Powered Scooter Sales by Region, World Markets: 2009-2013
  • Estimated Annual Gas-Powered Motorcycle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2009-2013
  • Annual E-Scooter Sales, China and Rest of World: 2014-2023
  • Annual E-Motorcycle Sales by Power Level, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of E-PTWs by ICE cc Equivalent, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Percentage of Li-ion Batteries in E-Motorcycles and E-Scooters, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Battery Power Capacity of Annual Sales of E-PTWs by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Travel Times on E40 between Leuven and Brussels during Morning Rush Hour
  • Battery Chemistry Energy Density Comparison
  • Cylinder Li-ion Battery Cutaway Diagram
  • Prismatic Li-ion Battery Cutaway Diagram
  • SAE Connectors: J1772 and J1772 Combo Charger
  • CHAdeMO Connector

List of Tables

  • E-PTW Definitions by Region, World Markets: 2014
  • Total Cost of Ownership Comparison: 2014
  • Advanced Battery Energy Storage Capacity by Segment, World Markets: 2012
  • Battery Chemistry Characteristics
  • Estimated Retail Gasoline Prices by Region, World Markets: 2009-2013
  • Retail Gasoline Prices by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Estimated Annual Sales of Gas-Powered Scooters (125cc or Less) by Region, World Markets: 2009-2013
  • Estimated Annual Sales of Gas-Powered Motorcycles (More than 125cc) by Region, World Markets: 2009-2013
  • Annual Sales of Gas-Powered Scooters by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of Gas-Powered Motorcycles by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of E-Scooters by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of Low-Powered E-Motorcycles (Less than 30 kW/40 hp Peak) by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of High-Powered E-Motorcycles (More than 30 kW/40 hp Peak) by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of E-Motorcycles by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of E-PTWs by ICE cc Equivalent, North America: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of E-PTWs by ICE cc Equivalent, Western Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of E-PTWs by ICE cc Equivalent, Eastern Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of E-PTWs by ICE cc Equivalent, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of E-PTWs by ICE cc Equivalent, Latin America: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of E-PTWs by Internal Combustion Engine cc Equivalent, Middle East & Africa: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of E-PTWs by ICE cc Equivalent, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Battery Power Capacity of Annual Sales of E-PTWs by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Battery Power Capacity of Annual Sales of Li-ion E-Scooters by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Battery Power Capacity of Annual Sales of SLA E-Scooters by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • E-Scooter Battery Technology Mix and Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Battery Power Capacity of Annual Sales of Li-ion E-Motorcycles by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • E-Motorcycle Battery Technology Mix by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Electricity Use by E-PTW Type, North America: 2014-2023
  • Annual Electricity Use by E-PTW Type, Western Europe: 2014-2023
  • Cities Banning or Restricting Motorcycles, China: 2010
  • Energy Storage Advantages and Weaknesses by Technology: 2014
  • E-PTW Definitions by Region, World Markets: 2014
  • Cities Banning or Restricting Motorcycles, China: 2010
  • Energy Storage Advantages and Weaknesses by Technology: 2014
  • Total Cost of Ownership Comparison: 2014
  • Battery Chemistry Characteristics
  • Drivetrain Component Percentage of Costs for E-PTWs: 2014
  • BMW Motorrad SWOT Analysis
  • Brammo Product Line: 2014
  • Brammo SWOT Analysis
  • GOVECS Product Line: 2014
  • GOVECS SWOT Analysis
  • iO Scooter SWOT Analysis
  • Jiangsu Xinri E-Vehicle Co. SWOT Analysis
  • Terra Motors SWOT Analysis
  • Vmoto SWOT Analysis
  • Zero Motorcycles Product Line: 2014
  • Zero Motorcycles SWOT Analysis
  • Flextronics SWOT Analysis
  • Panasonic SWOT Analysis
  • Parker Hannafin SWOT Analysis
  • Samsung SDI SWOT Analysis
  • Sevcon SWOT Analysis
  • Tianneng SWOT Analysis
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Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-vehicle-geographic-forecasts http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-vehicle-geographic-forecasts#comments Wed, 23 Apr 2014 15:40:30 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=64550 Smart TransportationTransportation Forecast
To date, North America is the strongest market for light duty (LD) plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), with nearly 100,000 sold in 2013. Japan is a distant second, with just under 30,000 sales, followed by the Netherlands (over 23,000) and China (over 17,000). Navigant Research expects that the United States will be the largest market for [...]]]>
Smart TransportationTransportation Forecast

To date, North America is the strongest market for light duty (LD) plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), with nearly 100,000 sold in 2013. Japan is a distant second, with just under 30,000 sales, followed by the Netherlands (over 23,000) and China (over 17,000). Navigant Research expects that the United States will be the largest market for PEVs during the next 10 years, with LD PEV sales exceeding 514,000 in 2023.

The top cities for LD PEV sales among all of the regions examined in this report are expected to be Los Angeles, Paris, and Tokyo. Cities with higher densities will likely see greater interest in incentivizing PEV purchases, optimizing PEV charging, and developing publicly available EV supply equipment (EVSE) infrastructure. The overall growth of LD PEV sales will be considerable throughout the world over the next decade. Navigant Research forecasts that the global LD PEV market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.6% while the global market for LD vehicles will grow at a CAGR of only 2.6%. How and where PEVs are bought will affect grid distribution systems and utility business models since Navigant Research estimates PEVs increase residential customer load by 33% to 37%.

This Navigant Research report provides data and forecasts for LD PEV sales in U.S. states, metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), and utility service territories; Canadian provinces and cities; and 10 major metropolitan areas in Europe and Asia Pacific. The study estimates the number of vehicles that will be in use in specific geographic locations and assesses the potential impacts of anticipated PEV penetration in the most active PEV markets. Market forecasts for LD PEV sales and parcs for each geographic region covered extend through 2023. The study also provides penetration data and forecasts on the number of vehicles in use by technology, as well as analyses of major trends in the forecasts.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • Which states, provinces, and cities in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific have the greatest affinity toward electric vehicle (EV) ownership?
  • What are the typical PEV owner demographics in the United States and Canada?
  • Which metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and cities have demographic profiles that match the typical PEV owner demographics in the United States and Canada?
  • What is the projected size of the global PEV market over the next 10 years and where will sales grow the fastest?
  • How many vehicles will electric utilities have to prepare for in the future?
  • What are the largest metropolitan markets for PEVs outside of the United States?
  • How do fuel costs affect the regional markets for PEVs?
Who needs this report?
  • Automobile OEM marketing managers
  • Vehicle aftermarket and service management
  • Tier One supplier marketing managers
  • EV charging equipment marketing managers
  • Electric utility management
  • State, province, and city urban planners
  • EV advocacy groups
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Background Data

1.2  Market Forecasts

2. Background Data  

2.1  Introduction

2.2  Population and Demographics

2.2.1   U.S. Demographics

2.2.2   Canadian Demographics

2.3  PEV Attitudes in the United States

2.4  Vehicle and Infrastructure Availability

2.5  PEV ROI

3. Market Forecasts  

3.1  Methodology

3.2  Regional PEV Markets

3.3  North America

3.3.1   PEV Sales by State

3.3.2   PEV Sales by MSA

3.3.3   PEV Parc by Selected Utility Service Area

3.3.4   PEV Sales by Province

3.3.5   PEV Sales by City

3.4  Europe

3.5  Asia Pacific

3.6  Conclusions

4. Company Directory
5. Acronym and Abbreviation List
6. Table of Contents
7. Table of Charts and Figures
8. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Top Metropolitan Area per Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc by Top Metropolitan Area per Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Index of Positive Opinion toward PEVs by State, United States: 2013
  • Fuel Costs per Mile by Fuel, Select Regions: 2014
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Major Global Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales as a Percentage of Total LD Vehicle Sales, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales as a Percentage of Total LD Vehicle Sales, Canada: 2014-2023
  • LD PEV Sales by Top 10 States, United States: 2014, 2023
  • LD PEV Sales as a Percentage of LD Vehicle Sales by Top 25 States, United States: 2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc by Top Five Utility Service Areas, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Top Seven Provinces, Canada: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Top Nine Cities, Canada: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc by Select Metropolitan Area, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales Market Share by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc Market Share by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Select Metropolitan Area, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales Market Share by Select Metropolitan Area, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc Market Share by Select Metropolitan Area, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023

List of Tables

  • Cumulative Demand Charge Avoidance Return on Investment for V2B Infrastructure
  • Geographic Areas for Forecasts
  • PEV Demographic Profile
  • Index of Demographic Similarities between Metropolitan Statistical Areas and National PEV Profile by Top 10 MSAs, United States: 2010
  • Index of Demographic Similarities between Cities and National PEV Profile by Top Seven Cities, Canada: 2010
  • Total Population and Number of Households by State, United States: 2013
  • Total Population by 100 Largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2012
  • Total Population and Households by Selected Utility Service Area, United States: 2011
  • Total Population by Province, Canada: 2013
  • Total Population by Select City, Canada: 2012
  • Total Population by Select City, Europe: 2012
  • Total Population by Select City, Asia Pacific: 2012
  • Annual Gasoline Pump Prices by State, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual Residential Electricity Prices for EV Charging Services by State, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual Gasoline Pump Prices by Province, Canada: 2014-2023
  • Annual Residential Electricity Prices by Province, Canada: 2014-2023
  • Annual Diesel Pump Prices by Country, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual Residential Electricity Prices by Country, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual Gasoline Pump Prices by Country, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual Residential Electricity Prices by Country, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Major Global Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Annual LD Vehicle Sales by State, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by State, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales as a Percentage of Total LD Vehicle Sales by State, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc by State, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual Ratio of LD PEV Sales to Population by Top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc by Top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual Percentage of Total LD PEVs by Top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Selected Utility Service Area, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc by Selected Utility Service Area, United States: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD Vehicle Sales by Province, Canada: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Province, Canada: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales as a Percentage of Total LD Vehicle Sales by Province, Canada: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc by Province, Canada: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Top Nine Cities, Canada: 2014-2023
  • Annual City LD PEV Sales as Percentage of Province PEV Sales, Canada: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc by Top Nine Cities, Canada: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD Vehicle Sales by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales as Percentage of LD Vehicle Sales by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD Vehicle Parc by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc Percentage of Fleet by Select Metropolitan Area, Europe: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD Vehicle Sales by Select City, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales by Select City, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Sales as Percentage of LDV Sales by Select City, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD Vehicle Parc by Select City, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc by Select City, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
  • Annual LD PEV Parc Percentage of Select City Fleet, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
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Alternative Revenue Streams for Automakers http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/alternative-revenue-streams-for-automakers http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/alternative-revenue-streams-for-automakers#comments Mon, 31 Mar 2014 19:14:28 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=63777 Smart Transportation
Automotive manufacturers are making the first inroads into new markets not directly related to vehicle sales. They are selling home energy management (HEM) systems and residential PV units; offering carsharing services and smart parking applications; and developing the tools that will allow plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) drivers to participate in grid services programs. All of [...]]]>
Smart Transportation

Automotive manufacturers are making the first inroads into new markets not directly related to vehicle sales. They are selling home energy management (HEM) systems and residential PV units; offering carsharing services and smart parking applications; and developing the tools that will allow plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) drivers to participate in grid services programs. All of these products and services capitalize on the new market potential relating to the advent of PEVs and the drive toward more sustainable transportation.

While the automotive industry is taking a serious look at these types of solutions, it is not clear whether they offer revenue potential. Automakers will be facing the same drivers and barriers that the incumbents face in these markets. They also face the challenge of trying to enter an entirely new type of market where they have little or no experience with the product or type of service. While Navigant Research believes that automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) will participate in these markets to a growing degree, it is not as likely that they will be significant revenue generating opportunities in the near term. Navigant Research forecasts that global OEM revenue from new services related to PEVs and sustainable transportation will grow from $426.9 million in 2014 to $5.3 billion in 2023.

This Navigant Research report examines services that automakers are already offering or developing, either in conjunction with their PEVs or simply as standalone services associated with sustainable transportation. The study analyzes the following services: vehicle-to-grid (V2G), vehicle-to-building (V2B), HEM, solar energy, EV charging equipment and networks, carsharing, and smart parking. Global forecasts of the total addressable market and projected OEM revenue from these services, segmented by region, extend through 2023. The report also examines the existing market dynamics for each of the services covered, the drivers and challenges for automakers entering those markets, and the key market players.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What are the new opportunities available to automakers in the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market?
  • What is driving automakers to develop new services related to plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) and sustainable transportation?
  • Which new services are automakers most likely to develop further?
  • What are the existing market dynamics and forecasts for these new services and who are the key players?
  • What kind of revenue streams will these new markets offer automotive OEMs?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive manufacturers and suppliers
  • Carsharing companies
  • Solar PV companies and solar services companies
  • Electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) manufacturers
  • Energy service companies
  • Utilities
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Introduction

1.1.1   Revenue Opportunities

1.1.2   Challenges and Drivers

1.2  Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues 

2.1  Market Overview

2.2  Market Drivers

2.2.1   Vehicle Electrification or the Rise of the Battery

2.2.2   Slowing Vehicle Sales Growth

   2.2.2.1  Trends Affecting Car Sales

   2.2.2.2  Light Duty Vehicle Sales Forecasts

2.2.3   New Focus on Managing Urban Mobility

   2.2.3.1  Congestion Mitigation

   2.2.3.2  Emissions Reduction

2.2.4   Increased Connectivity

2.2.5   Autonomous Vehicle Technologies

2.3  New Revenue Markets for PEV Makers

2.3.1   V2G

   2.3.1.1  Market Conditions and Sizing

   2.3.1.2  V2G PEV Forecasts

   2.3.1.3  V2G Case Studies

   2.3.1.4  Forecasting V2G Services

2.3.2   V2B Services

   2.3.2.1  Market Conditions and Sizing

2.3.3   HEM Services

   2.3.3.1  Market Conditions and Sizing

   2.3.3.2  V2H

2.3.4   Solar Energy Services

   2.3.4.1  Market Conditions and Sizing

2.3.5   Charging Equipment and Network Operations

   2.3.5.1  Market Conditions and Sizing

2.3.6   Carsharing Services

   2.3.6.1  Market Conditions and Sizing

2.3.7   Telematics Promoting Sustainable Transportation

   2.3.7.1  Smart Parking

2.4  Overall Market Issues and Challenges

2.4.1   Entering New Markets

2.4.2   Electricity Prices versus New Services

2.4.3   Strategies for the Carshare Market

2.4.4   Strategies for the Solar Energy Services Market

2.4.5   Strategies for the V2G Market

3. Technology Issues

3.1  Introduction

3.2  V2G Technology

3.2.1   Impact on Vehicle Batteries

3.2.2   Utility Upgrades

3.2.3   Communications

3.2.4   Data Analytics

3.2.5   Standards

3.3  HEM

3.3.1   Standards

4. Key Industry Players 

4.1  Introduction

4.2  Automotive OEMs

4.2.1   Audi

4.2.2   BMW

4.2.3   Chrysler

4.2.4   Daimler

4.2.5   Ford

4.2.6   GM

4.2.7   Honda

4.2.8   Mitsubishi Motors

4.2.9   Nissan

4.2.10   Renault

4.2.11   Tesla Motors

4.2.12   Toyota Motor Corp.

4.3  HEM Companies

4.3.1   Nest Labs

4.4  Renewable Energy Supply

4.4.1   Ingeteam

4.4.2   SolarCity

4.4.3   SunPower Corporation

4.4.4   TimberRock

4.5  Connected Car or Mobile App Companies

4.5.1   ParkMe

4.5.2   Parkopedia

4.5.3   INRIX

4.5.4   Streetline

4.6  Carshare Companies

4.6.1   RelayRides

4.6.2   Zipcar

4.7  EVSE Companies and V2G Companies

4.7.1   Autogrid

4.7.2   Greenlots

4.7.3   Hitachi

4.7.4   Nichicon

4.7.5   Silver Spring Networks

4.7.6   Tendril

4.8  Utilities

4.8.1   Endesa

4.8.2   EVGrid

4.8.3   Pacific Gas & Electric

4.8.4   RWE

4.8.5   San Diego Gas and Electric

5. Market Forecasts  

5.1  Overview of Methodology

5.2  Grid Services

5.3  Home Energy Services

5.4  EV Charging Equipment Sales

5.5  Carshare Services

5.6  Total Potential Revenue to OEMs for New Services

5.7  Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Company Directory
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List

8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Tables

  • Cumulative Demand Charge Avoidance Return on Investment for V2B Infrastructure
  • Annual PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total Installed LD V2G Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual V2G-Enabled LD PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • V2G-Enabled LD PEV Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Installed LD PEV Capacity Participating in Demand Response Programs by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Networked HEM System Shipments by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Level 2 Residential EVSE Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Historical Growth in Carsharing Membership by Region, World Markets: 2006-2013
  • Total Members in Carsharing Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Revenue from V2G Demand Response Program Participation by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from V2G Demand Response Program Participation by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Revenue from V2G Frequency Regulation by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from V2G Frequency Regulation by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from HEM System Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from Residential PV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from Residential EVSE Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from Carsharing Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total OEM Revenue from New Services by Application, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total OEM Revenue from New Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023

List of Charts and Figures

  • Total OEM Revenue from New Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual V2G-Enabled LD PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual V2G-Enabled LD PEV Parc by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Installed LD PEV Capacity Participating in Demand Response Programs by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Networked HEM System Shipments by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Networked HEM System Shipments versus PEV Sales, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of Residential PV Systems and PEVs, North America: 2014-2023
  • Annual Level 2 Residential EVSE Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Historical Growth in Carsharing Membership by Region, World Markets: 2006-2013
  • Total Members in Carsharing Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from Grid Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from Home Energy Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from Residential EVSE Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from Carsharing Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Home Energy Management: Five Segments along a Continuum
  • A Comprehensive Networked HEM System Topology
  • HomePlug Topology
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Electric Vehicle Batteries http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-vehicle-batteries http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-vehicle-batteries#comments Mon, 31 Mar 2014 18:54:59 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=63762 Energy StorageSmart Energy
Global automotive manufacturers are accelerating their efforts to produce more vehicles utilizing electric drivetrains. Many factors are contributing to this trend, including newly enacted fuel economy standards, greater confidence in electric-powered vehicles, and advances in battery technology. In 2012, Toyota launched the Plug-in Prius, powered for the first time with lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries. This [...]]]>
Energy StorageSmart Energy

Global automotive manufacturers are accelerating their efforts to produce more vehicles utilizing electric drivetrains. Many factors are contributing to this trend, including newly enacted fuel economy standards, greater confidence in electric-powered vehicles, and advances in battery technology. In 2012, Toyota launched the Plug-in Prius, powered for the first time with lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries. This shift from the well-established nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) batteries to Li-ion represented a major endorsement of the ability of this chemistry to perform consistently in an automotive environment. Since then, most of the other major OEMs have introduced battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) models, almost all of which use Li-ion batteries for onboard energy storage.

The immediate future looks to be secure for the Li-ion chemistry, though there are still many variants under development to improve performance and reduce cost. Improvements continue to be made and leading battery cell manufacturers have built new factories utilizing the latest production techniques, including greater automation and faster throughput. Navigant Research forecasts that the global market for Li-ion batteries in light duty consumer vehicles will grow from $3.2 billion in 2013 to $24.1 billion in 2023.

This Navigant Research report provides a detailed examination of the growing market for Li-ion batteries, including profiles of the leading Li-ion battery manufacturers and systems integrators. The study assesses the relative sizes of the battery markets for different vehicle types, as well as vehicle roadmaps and projected sales for BEVs, PHEVs, and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). Global market forecasts for revenue from Li-ion batteries, segmented by vehicle type and region, extend through 2023. The report also includes a review of the different Li-ion battery chemistries and competing energy storage technologies, such as ultracapacitors and NiMH batteries.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • Have lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries become the industry standard for electric vehicles (EVs)?
  • Who are the leading Li-ion battery manufacturers?
  • Which key joint venture companies are working with OEMs and battery manufacturers?
  • What are the different chemistries in the EV battery market?
  • How will the cost per kilowatt-hour for Li-ion batteries change in the next several years?
  • Which vehicle segment offers the best opportunities for battery manufacturers?
  • What are the vehicle roadmaps for battery, plug-in hybrid, and hybrid electric vehicles (BEVs, PHEVs, and HEVs) through 2023?
  • What are the forecasts for revenue from Li-ion batteries through 2023?
Who needs this report?
  • Vehicle manufacturers
  • Vehicle fleet managers
  • Automotive industry suppliers
  • Battery suppliers
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  The Electric Vehicle Market

1.2  Energy Storage for EVs

1.3  Automotive Li-ion Battery Volume

1.4  World Market Highlights

2. Market Issues

2.1  Introduction

2.2  Advanced Batteries for the Transportation Market

2.3  Market Size and Segmentation

2.3.1   BEVs

2.3.2   PHEVs

2.3.3   HEVs

2.3.4   Stop-Start Vehicles

2.3.5   Commercial Vehicles

2.4  Power and Energy Requirements

2.5  Industry Growth Drivers

2.5.1   Emissions Reductions

2.5.2   Government Incentives

2.5.2.1  United States

2.5.2.2  Europe

2.5.2.3  China

2.5.2.4  Japan

2.5.2.5  South Korea

2.5.2.6  India

2.6  Different Finance Models

2.7  Battery Swapping

2.8  Grid Applications

2.8.1   Secondary Use of Batteries

2.8.2   Vehicle-to-Grid Power Delivery

2.9  Early Fleet Adopters of HEVs and PEVs

2.9.1   North America

2.9.2   China

2.9.3   Utilities

2.10   Transitioning from Early Adopters to Mainstream

2.10.1    Sensitivity to Fuel Prices

2.10.2    Ease of Purchase

2.10.3    Reliability

2.10.4    Resale Value

2.10.5    Limited Driving Range

2.11   Marketing and Commercialization

2.12   Value Chain of the Li-ion Battery Industry

2.12.1   Raw Materials

2.12.2   Cell Components and Electronics

2.12.3    Integrated Systems: Cell and Pack Manufacturers

2.12.4    Battery Manufacturer and OEM Joint Ventures

2.12.5    Materials Recycling

2.13   Requirements for Commercialization

2.13.1    Cost

2.13.2    Capacity

2.13.3    Weight and Size

2.13.4    Charge Rate

2.13.5    Performance

3. Technology Issues

3.1  Competing Energy Storage Technologies

3.1.1   Ultracapacitors

3.1.2   NiMH Batteries

3.1.3   Li-ion Batteries

3.1.4   Strengths and Weaknesses

3.2  Li-ion Batteries in Detail

3.2.1   Li-ion Battery Components

3.3  Competing Technologies in Development

3.3.1   Lithium-Air

3.3.2   Lithium Sulfur

3.3.3   Solid-State

3.4  Access to Lithium

3.5  Safety and Implementation

3.5.1   Battery Charging Levels

3.5.2   DC Fast Charging

3.5.3   Sensitivity to Temperature

4. Key Industry Players

4.1  Introduction

4.2  Battery Cell Manufacturers

4.2.1   A123 Systems

4.2.2   Altair Nanotechnologies

4.2.3   Boston-Power, Inc.

4.2.4   BYD

4.2.5   Electrovaya

4.2.6   GS Yuasa

4.2.7   Hitachi Automotive Systems

4.2.8   Johnson Controls

4.2.9   LG Chem/Compact Power

4.2.10  NEC

4.2.11  Panasonic

4.2.12  Samsung SDI

4.2.13  Toshiba

4.3  Battery Pack System Integrators

4.3.1   Automotive Energy Supply Corporation

4.3.2   Blue Energy

4.3.3   Deutsche ACCUmotive

4.3.4   Lithium Energy & Power GmbH

4.3.5   Magna E-Car

4.3.6   Primearth EV Energy Co.

4.3.7   Robert Bosch Battery Systems

4.3.8   SK Continental E-motion

4.4  Automotive Manufacturers

4.4.1   BMW

4.4.2   Chery

4.4.3   Daimler

4.4.4   Fiat Chrysler

4.4.5   Ford

4.4.6   General Motors

4.4.7   Honda

4.4.8   Hyundai

4.4.9   Mazda

4.4.10  Mitsubishi

4.4.11  Nissan

4.4.12  PSA Peugeot-Citroën

4.4.13  Renault

4.4.14  Tesla

4.4.15  Toyota

4.4.16  Volkswagen/Audi

4.4.17  Volvo

4.4.18  ZAP

4.5  Other Industry Players

4.5.1   China BAK Battery

4.5.2   XALT Energy

5. Market Forecasts

5.1  Introduction

5.2  Global EV Market

5.3  Li-ion Transportation Battery Market in the BEV Segment

5.4  Li-ion Transportation Battery Market in the PHEV Segment

5.5  Li-ion Transportation Battery Market in the HEV Segment

5.6  Li-ion Transportation Battery Market in the SSV Segment

5.7  Overall Market Assessment

5.8  Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Company Directory
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List
8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Total Li-ion Vehicle Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet BEV, PHEV, and HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV, PHEV, and HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV Li-ion Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV Li-ion Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer PHEV Li-ion Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer PHEV Li-ion Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer HEV Li-ion Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer HEV Li-ion Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty SSV Li-ion Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Stop-Start Vehicle Li-ion Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Revenue by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Vehicle Li-ion Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023

List of Tables

  • Vehicle Battery Capacities by Selected HEV and PEV Models: 2014
  • Installed New Capacity of Li-ion Batteries for Energy Storage Applications, World Markets: 2014-2022
  • Estimated Component Costs, 25 kWh LMO Battery Pack, World Markets: 2014
  • Production of Passenger PHEVs and BEVs by Make and Model, World Markets: MY 2014
  • Roadmap of Passenger PHEVs and BEVS by Model: 2015 and Beyond
  • Selected Hybrid Trucks Available by Manufacturer, World Markets: 2013
  • Selected PHEV Trucks Available or Being Developed by Drivetrain Manufacturer, World Markets: 2014
  • Selected BEV Trucks Available or Being Developed by Drivetrain Manufacturer, World Markets: 2013
  • Selected PHEV and BEV Trucks in Service or Pending Deployment by Location, World Markets: 2013
  • U.S. DOE Stimulus Grants for Battery Manufacturing by Company: 2014
  • Energy Storage Type Comparison: 2014
  • Characteristics of Commercial Ultracapacitors by Manufacturer: 2012
  • Characteristics of NiMH Batteries in Vehicle Applications by Battery Maker: 2012
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV, PHEV, and HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet BEV, PHEV, and HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV Li-ion Battery Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer PHEV Li-ion Battery Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer HEV Li-ion Battery Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Sales Revenue Including SSVs by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet Vehicle Li-ion Battery Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet Vehicle Li-ion Battery Sales Revenue Percentage of Total by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet Vehicle Li-ion Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV Li-ion Transportation Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV Li-ion Transportation Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer PHEV Li-ion Transportation Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer PHEV Li-ion Transportation Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer HEV Li-ion Transportation Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer HEV Li-ion Transportation Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Revenue Including SSVs by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Capacity Including SSVs by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Revenue by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Revenue by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Vehicle Li-ion Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Energy Storage Technology Strengths and Weaknesses
  • Ranking of Li-ion Technology Options by Property: 2014
  • Total Vehicle Li-ion Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Capacity by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Characteristics of Li-ion Battery Chemistries
  • Adoption of Li-ion Battery Chemistry by Battery Vendor and Vehicle OEM
  • Li-ion Battery Components, Functions, and Materials
  • Major Cathode Chemistries for Li-ion Batteries: 2014
  • Key EV Battery Player Map: 2014
  • Vehicle Battery Details by Selected HEV and PEV Models: 2014
  • Li-ion Battery Price by Battery Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Medium/Heavy Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty SSV Li-ion Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty SSV Li-ion Transportation Battery Energy Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Capacity Percentage by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty SSV Li-ion Battery Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Annual Growth in Total Light Duty SSV Li-ion Battery Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty SSV Li-ion Battery Revenue by Country, World Markets: 2013-2023
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Aviation and Marine Biofuels http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/aviation-and-marine-biofuels http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/aviation-and-marine-biofuels#comments Tue, 11 Mar 2014 21:29:07 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=63177 Renewable EnergySmart Energy
Viewed as a game changer in the race to commercialize advanced biofuels, aviation and marine biofuels represent a very significant opportunity for emerging producers in the advanced biofuels industry. Demand for advanced biofuels produced from sustainable, non-food feedstocks is largely driven by a need to hedge against increases in fuel costs, compliance with emerging emissions [...]]]>
Renewable EnergySmart Energy

Viewed as a game changer in the race to commercialize advanced biofuels, aviation and marine biofuels represent a very significant opportunity for emerging producers in the advanced biofuels industry. Demand for advanced biofuels produced from sustainable, non-food feedstocks is largely driven by a need to hedge against increases in fuel costs, compliance with emerging emissions regulations, and certification of advanced biofuels pathways. Lacking a viable alternative to liquid fuels, aircraft manufacturers, turbine engine manufacturers, and commercial airlines have partnered in flying more than 600,000 miles powered by biofuels since 2008. Additional concerns around energy security and combat readiness has led to a deepening interest within the U.S. military.

Although the emerging aviation and marine biofuels market has expanded rapidly in recent years, feedstock constraints and high capital investment requirements will need to be overcome for the industry to meet aspirational growth targets. Led by North America, installed nameplate production capacity is expected to reach 3.3 billion gallons by 2024, representing 1.5% of total aviation and marine fuel consumption. Navigant Research forecasts that a cumulative total of 18.2 billion gallons to 19.6 billion gallons of renewable drop-in aviation and marine biofuels could be produced between 2014 and 2024, dependent on the two refinery scenarios analyzed in the report.

This Navigant Research report provides forecasts and market sizing for nameplate production capacity and production volumes for advanced aviation and marine biofuels. Forecasts are segmented by geography, conversion platform, and fuel type. The total addressable market size for commercial aviation, marine shipping, and U.S. military applications are discussed. This report also provides a qualitative analysis of key stakeholder initiatives, market drivers, challenges, and technology developments, as well as profiles of key stakeholders across the value chain.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What is the current addressable market for commercial aviation, marine shipping, and U.S. military fuel consumption?
  • What is the forecast nameplate production capacity for advanced biorefineries producing drop-in renewable fuels?
  • What is the forecast production volume of drop-in aviation and marine biofuels?
  • Who are the key stakeholders in the emerging aviation and marine biofuels value chain?
  • What are the emerging feedstock opportunities driving the production of aviation and marine biofuels?
Who needs this report?
  • Feedstock growers and suppliers
  • Advanced biofuels producers
  • Petroleum producers and refiners
  • Commercial airlines and shipping companies
  • Port operators
  • Military agencies
  • Government agencies and policymakers
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Market Issues

1.2  Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues  

2.1  Market Overview

2.1.1   Biofuels in the Global Fuel Supply

2.1.2   Renewable Drop-in Biofuels Overview

2.1.3   Role of Aviation and Marine Biofuels

2.1.4   Key Trends

2.2  Market Opportunities

2.2.1   Commercial Aviation

2.2.2   Commercial Marine Shipping

2.2.3   Military

2.2.4   Specialty Fuels

   2.2.4.1  General Aviation

   2.2.4.2  Missile Fuel

2.3  Market Drivers

2.3.1   Aspirational Targets

2.3.2   Fuel Supply Diversity

   2.3.2.1  Rising Oil Costs

   2.3.2.2  Price Volatility

   2.3.2.3  U.S. Military and Energy Security

2.3.3   Alternative Fuel Mandates

   2.3.3.1  RFS2

   2.3.3.2  RED

   2.3.3.3  Indonesian Aviation Act

2.3.4   Emissions Reduction

   2.3.4.1  EU Emissions Trading System and Aviation Amendments

   2.3.4.2  Marine Pollution and Emission Control Areas Regulations

2.4  Market Barriers

2.4.1   High Cost

   2.4.1.1  Biorefinery Construction Costs

   2.4.1.2  Finished Fuel Costs

2.4.2   Feedstock Limits

2.4.3   Fuel Certification

2.5  Emerging Feedstock Supply Chains

2.5.1   MSW

2.5.2   Waste Gases

2.5.3   Jatropha, Camelina, and Carinata

2.5.4   Halophytes

2.5.5   Algae

2.6  Value Chain Initiatives

2.6.1   Commercial Airline Biofuel Flights

2.6.2   Aviation Biofuel Consortiums

2.6.3   U.S. Navy’s Great Green Fleet

3. Technology Issues 

3.1  Technology Overview

3.2  Emerging Aviation and Marine Biofuel Conversion Pathways

3.2.1   HEFA Fuels

3.2.2   FT Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene

3.2.3   ATJ

3.2.4   Pyrolysis-to-jet

3.2.5   Fermented Renewable Jet Fuel

3.3  Biotechnology (Feedstock) Developments

3.3.1     Emerging Aviation and Marine Biofuel Feedstocks

3.3.2   Advanced Projects Research Agency-Energy Plants Engineered to Replace Oil Program

3.4  Advanced Biofuels Production

3.4.1   Front-End Conversion Advances

3.4.2   Back-End Conversion Advances

3.5  Biorefinery Business Models

3.5.1   Integrated Biorefinery

3.5.2   Hub and Spoke Model

3.5.3   Bioport Model

3.6  Certification and Testing

3.6.1   ASTM

   3.6.1.1  Aviation Fuel Certifications

   3.6.1.2  Marine Fuel Certifications

3.6.2   Military Certification

4. Key Industry Players  

4.1  Key Player Overview

4.2  Feedstock Suppliers

4.2.1   SGB

4.3  OEMs

4.3.1   Airbus

4.3.2   Boeing

4.3.3   General Electric Aviation

4.3.4   Pratt & Whitney

4.3.5   Rolls-Royce

4.3.6   Wärtsilä

4.4  Advanced Biofuel Producers

4.4.1   AltAir Fuels

4.4.2   Amyris

4.4.3   Chevron Lummus Global

4.4.4   Gevo

4.4.5   LanzaTech

4.4.6   Neste Oil

4.4.7   Primus Green Energy

4.4.8   Renewable Energy Group

4.4.9   SkyNRG

4.4.10   Solazyme

4.4.11   Solena Fuels

4.4.12   UOP

4.5  End Users

4.5.1   Commercial Carriers

4.5.2   Maersk Group

4.5.3   Schipol Group

5. Market Forecasts   

5.1  Forecast Overview

5.1.1   Forecast Segments

5.1.2   Key Inflection Points

5.2  Aviation and Marine Biofuel Forecasts

5.3  Nameplate Production Capacity Forecast by Region and Key Market

5.3.1   Production Capacity by Region

5.3.2   Revenue by Region

5.3.3   Key Markets

   5.3.3.1  United States

   5.3.3.2  EU

   5.3.3.3  Brazil

   5.3.3.4  China

5.4  Nameplate Production Capacity Forecast by Conversion Platform

5.5  Fuel Production Volume Forecast by Fuel Type

5.5.1     High Jet/Low Distillate Scenario

5.5.2   Low Jet/High Distillate Scenario

5.6  Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Company Directory
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List
8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Installed Aviation and Marine Biofuels Nameplate Production Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Installed Aviation and Marine Biofuels Nameplate Production Capacity by Producer, World Markets: 2007-2013
  • DOD Petroleum Consumption by Service, United States: 2012
  • DOD Fuel Consumption Mix by Fuel Type, United States: 2008
  • Global AvGas Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2010
  • Cost Comparison of Petroleum Jet Fuel, Marine Bunker, and Biofuels Alternatives: 2014-2024
  • Share of Municipal Solid Waste Generation by Region, World Markets: 2010-2020
  • Commercial Airline Biofuel Miles Flown by Flight Type, World Markets: 2008-2013
  • Cumulative Revenue from Biorefinery Construction and Fuel Sales by Fuel Product Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Share of Biofuels in Aviation and Marine Fuel Mix by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Nameplate Aviation and Marine Biofuels Production Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Cumulative Revenue from Biorefinery Construction by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Nameplate Production Capacity by Biorefinery Platform and Cumulative Revenue, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Cumulative Revenue from Fuel Sales by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Production by Fuel Type, High Jet/Low Distillate Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Production by Fuel Type, Low Jet/High Distillate Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Emerging Aviation and Marine Biofuel Pathways
  • HEFA Production Pathway
  • FT-SPK Production Pathway
  • ATJ Production Pathway
  • HDCJ Production Pathway
  • FRJ Production Pathway
  • Products Made from a Barrel of Crude Oil (Gallons)
  • Overview of Bio-Based Value Chain

List of Tables

  • Installed Aviation and Marine Biofuels Nameplate Production Capacity by Producer, World Markets: 2007-2013
  • Biofuel Miles Traveled by Commercial Airlines, World Markets: 2008-2014
  • Top 50 Global Container Fleet Operators: 2012
  • Military Biofuels Demonstrations, World Markets: 2010-2013
  • Profile of Potential Aviation and Marine Biofuels Markets
  • Aspirational Biofuel Targets by Organization
  • Average Refinery Capital Cost by Resource, World Markets: 2012
  • Potential Aviation and Marine Biofuels Feedstocks by Category
  • Sampling of Aviation Biofuel Initiatives, World Markets: 2014
  • Comparison of Feedstock Pathway Attributes: 2014
  • Aviation Biofuel ASTM Certification Timeline
  • Other Feedstock Producers
  • Early Adopter Commercial Airlines
  • Finished Aviation and Marine Biofuel Pathways
  • Assumed Biorefinery Fuel Production Cut by Conversion Platform
  • Installed Aviation and Marine Biofuels Nameplate Production Capacity by Producer, World Markets: 2007-2013
  • DOD Petroleum Consumption by Service, United States: 2012
  • DOD Fuel Consumption Mix by Fuel Type, United States: 2008
  • Profile of Potential Aviation and Marine Biofuels Markets
  • Global AvGas Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2010
  • Cost Comparison of Petroleum Jet Fuel, Marine Bunker, and Biofuels Alternatives: 2014-2024
  • Share of Municipal Solid Waste Generation by Region, World Markets: 2010-2020
  • Commercial Airline Biofuel Miles Flown by Flight Type, World Markets: 2008-2013
  • Cumulative Revenue of Aviation and Marine Biofuels Market by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Annual Aviation and Marine Fuel Consumption of All Sources by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Annual Commercial and Military Jet Fuel Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Annual Commercial Shipping and Military Marine Bunker Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Share of Biofuels in Aviation and Marine Fuel Market by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Installed Aviation and Marine Biofuels Nameplate Production Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Installed Aviation and Marine Biofuels Nameplate Production Capacity by Conversion Platform, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Aviation and Marine Biofuels Production by Fuel Spec (High Jet/Low Distillate), World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Aviation and Marine Biofuels Production by Fuel Spec (Low Jet/High Distillate), World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Revenue from New Aviation and Marine Biorefineries by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Annual Revenue from New Aviation and Marine Biorefineries by Conversion Platform, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Cumulative Revenue from New Aviation and Marine Biorefineries by Conversion Platform, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Annual Revenue from Aviation and Marine Biofuels Production by Fuel Spec (High Jet/Low Distillate), World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Annual Aviation and Marine Biofuels Production by Fuel Spec (Low Jet/High Distillate), World Markets: 2014-2024
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Wireless Charging Systems for Electric Vehicles http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/wireless-charging-systems-for-electric-vehicles http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/wireless-charging-systems-for-electric-vehicles#comments Tue, 25 Feb 2014 02:48:44 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=62614 Smart Transportation
Until recently, the prospects for wireless electric vehicle (EV) charging appeared limited, if a market developed at all. That has changed in the last 12 months. It is now clear that several major automakers are planning to bring wireless systems to market within the next few years, and a significant portion of the industry believes [...]]]>
Smart Transportation

Until recently, the prospects for wireless electric vehicle (EV) charging appeared limited, if a market developed at all. That has changed in the last 12 months. It is now clear that several major automakers are planning to bring wireless systems to market within the next few years, and a significant portion of the industry believes that wireless technology represents the future of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) charging.

As of early 2014, there is only one commercial wireless charging system available for PEVs, an aftermarket system offered by Evatran and Bosch, and it is only available in North America. Automakers and their Tier One suppliers continue to be reticent on their plans for wireless EV charging. Most wireless charging systems are in the pilot phase and are likely to remain there for another 2 to 3 years. By 2015-2016, however, models with built-in wireless charging capability will be available from several major automakers. Within a decade, wireless charging could be the leading way of charging EVs. Navigant Research forecasts that wireless charging equipment for light duty vehicles will grow by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 108% from 2013 to 2022, reaching annual sales of slightly less than 302,000 units in 2022.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the fledgling market for wireless charging systems for EVs. The study examines the technology of wireless EV charging and the efforts of technology developers, working in partnership with automakers, to bring systems to market. Global market forecasts for sales of wireless EV charging systems, segmented by region, extend through 2022. The report also looks at the demand drivers and market barriers associated with wireless EV charging, along with the efforts of automakers to incorporate wireless charging capability into their EV models.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What are the primary benefits and disadvantages of wireless electric vehicle (EV) charging?
  • What are the technological issues associated with wireless EV charging?
  • Who are the key players in developing wireless EV charging systems?
  • How have the wireless EV charging strategies of the major automakers shifted in the last 6 to 12 months?
  • What factors will determine the rate of adoption of wireless EV charging through 2022?
  • How will the adoption of wireless EV charging influence the overall market for EVs?
Who needs this report?
  • Automakers
  • EV supply equipment (EVSE) suppliers
  • Municipalities and government agencies
  • Integrators and auto supply companies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Market Update

2.1  Introduction to Wireless Electric Vehicle Charging Systems

2.2  Demand Drivers

2.2.1     Convenience

2.2.2     Automaker Incentives

2.3  Market Barriers

2.3.1     Price

2.3.2     Efficiency

2.3.3     Market Size

2.4  Technology Issues

2.4.1     Wireless Power Transfer

2.4.2     Proximity Requirements

2.4.3     Power Transfer Efficiency

2.4.4     Technology Standards

2.4.5     Safety

2.4.6     Dynamic Charging

2.4.7     Charging Stations

2.5  Market Issues and Forecasts

2.6  Key Players

2.6.1     Evatran

2.6.2     Qualcomm

2.6.3     WiTricity

3. Conclusions and Recommendations

List of Charts and Figures

  • Wireless EVSE Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Total EVSE Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Annual Wireless EVSE Unit Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Wireless EV Charging System
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