Navigant Research » Smart Transportation http://www.navigantresearch.com Wed, 23 Apr 2014 06:02:35 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.8.1 Alternative Revenue Streams for Automakers http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/alternative-revenue-streams-for-automakers http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/alternative-revenue-streams-for-automakers#comments Mon, 31 Mar 2014 19:14:28 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=63777 Smart Transportation
Automotive manufacturers are making the first inroads into new markets not directly related to vehicle sales. They are selling home energy management (HEM) systems and residential PV units; offering carsharing services and smart parking applications; and developing the tools that will allow plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) drivers to participate in grid services programs. All of [...]]]>
Smart Transportation

Automotive manufacturers are making the first inroads into new markets not directly related to vehicle sales. They are selling home energy management (HEM) systems and residential PV units; offering carsharing services and smart parking applications; and developing the tools that will allow plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) drivers to participate in grid services programs. All of these products and services capitalize on the new market potential relating to the advent of PEVs and the drive toward more sustainable transportation.

While the automotive industry is taking a serious look at these types of solutions, it is not clear whether they offer revenue potential. Automakers will be facing the same drivers and barriers that the incumbents face in these markets. They also face the challenge of trying to enter an entirely new type of market where they have little or no experience with the product or type of service. While Navigant Research believes that automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) will participate in these markets to a growing degree, it is not as likely that they will be significant revenue generating opportunities in the near term. Navigant Research forecasts that global OEM revenue from new services related to PEVs and sustainable transportation will grow from $426.9 million in 2014 to $5.3 billion in 2023.

This Navigant Research report examines services that automakers are already offering or developing, either in conjunction with their PEVs or simply as standalone services associated with sustainable transportation. The study analyzes the following services: vehicle-to-grid (V2G), vehicle-to-building (V2B), HEM, solar energy, EV charging equipment and networks, carsharing, and smart parking. Global forecasts of the total addressable market and projected OEM revenue from these services, segmented by region, extend through 2023. The report also examines the existing market dynamics for each of the services covered, the drivers and challenges for automakers entering those markets, and the key market players.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What are the new opportunities available to automakers in the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market?
  • What is driving automakers to develop new services related to plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) and sustainable transportation?
  • Which new services are automakers most likely to develop further?
  • What are the existing market dynamics and forecasts for these new services and who are the key players?
  • What kind of revenue streams will these new markets offer automotive OEMs?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive manufacturers and suppliers
  • Carsharing companies
  • Solar PV companies and solar services companies
  • Electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) manufacturers
  • Energy service companies
  • Utilities
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Introduction

1.1.1   Revenue Opportunities

1.1.2   Challenges and Drivers

1.2  Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues 

2.1  Market Overview

2.2  Market Drivers

2.2.1   Vehicle Electrification or the Rise of the Battery

2.2.2   Slowing Vehicle Sales Growth

   2.2.2.1  Trends Affecting Car Sales

   2.2.2.2  Light Duty Vehicle Sales Forecasts

2.2.3   New Focus on Managing Urban Mobility

   2.2.3.1  Congestion Mitigation

   2.2.3.2  Emissions Reduction

2.2.4   Increased Connectivity

2.2.5   Autonomous Vehicle Technologies

2.3  New Revenue Markets for PEV Makers

2.3.1   V2G

   2.3.1.1  Market Conditions and Sizing

   2.3.1.2  V2G PEV Forecasts

   2.3.1.3  V2G Case Studies

   2.3.1.4  Forecasting V2G Services

2.3.2   V2B Services

   2.3.2.1  Market Conditions and Sizing

2.3.3   HEM Services

   2.3.3.1  Market Conditions and Sizing

   2.3.3.2  V2H

2.3.4   Solar Energy Services

   2.3.4.1  Market Conditions and Sizing

2.3.5   Charging Equipment and Network Operations

   2.3.5.1  Market Conditions and Sizing

2.3.6   Carsharing Services

   2.3.6.1  Market Conditions and Sizing

2.3.7   Telematics Promoting Sustainable Transportation

   2.3.7.1  Smart Parking

2.4  Overall Market Issues and Challenges

2.4.1   Entering New Markets

2.4.2   Electricity Prices versus New Services

2.4.3   Strategies for the Carshare Market

2.4.4   Strategies for the Solar Energy Services Market

2.4.5   Strategies for the V2G Market

3. Technology Issues

3.1  Introduction

3.2  V2G Technology

3.2.1   Impact on Vehicle Batteries

3.2.2   Utility Upgrades

3.2.3   Communications

3.2.4   Data Analytics

3.2.5   Standards

3.3  HEM

3.3.1   Standards

4. Key Industry Players 

4.1  Introduction

4.2  Automotive OEMs

4.2.1   Audi

4.2.2   BMW

4.2.3   Chrysler

4.2.4   Daimler

4.2.5   Ford

4.2.6   GM

4.2.7   Honda

4.2.8   Mitsubishi Motors

4.2.9   Nissan

4.2.10   Renault

4.2.11   Tesla Motors

4.2.12   Toyota Motor Corp.

4.3  HEM Companies

4.3.1   Nest Labs

4.4  Renewable Energy Supply

4.4.1   Ingeteam

4.4.2   SolarCity

4.4.3   SunPower Corporation

4.4.4   TimberRock

4.5  Connected Car or Mobile App Companies

4.5.1   ParkMe

4.5.2   Parkopedia

4.5.3   INRIX

4.5.4   Streetline

4.6  Carshare Companies

4.6.1   RelayRides

4.6.2   Zipcar

4.7  EVSE Companies and V2G Companies

4.7.1   Autogrid

4.7.2   Greenlots

4.7.3   Hitachi

4.7.4   Nichicon

4.7.5   Silver Spring Networks

4.7.6   Tendril

4.8  Utilities

4.8.1   Endesa

4.8.2   EVGrid

4.8.3   Pacific Gas & Electric

4.8.4   RWE

4.8.5   San Diego Gas and Electric

5. Market Forecasts  

5.1  Overview of Methodology

5.2  Grid Services

5.3  Home Energy Services

5.4  EV Charging Equipment Sales

5.5  Carshare Services

5.6  Total Potential Revenue to OEMs for New Services

5.7  Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Company Directory
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List

8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Tables

  • Cumulative Demand Charge Avoidance Return on Investment for V2B Infrastructure
  • Annual PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total Installed LD V2G Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual V2G-Enabled LD PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • V2G-Enabled LD PEV Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Installed LD PEV Capacity Participating in Demand Response Programs by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Networked HEM System Shipments by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Level 2 Residential EVSE Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Historical Growth in Carsharing Membership by Region, World Markets: 2006-2013
  • Total Members in Carsharing Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Revenue from V2G Demand Response Program Participation by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from V2G Demand Response Program Participation by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Revenue from V2G Frequency Regulation by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from V2G Frequency Regulation by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from HEM System Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from Residential PV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from Residential EVSE Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from Carsharing Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total OEM Revenue from New Services by Application, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Total OEM Revenue from New Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023

List of Charts and Figures

  • Total OEM Revenue from New Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual V2G-Enabled LD PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual V2G-Enabled LD PEV Parc by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Installed LD PEV Capacity Participating in Demand Response Programs by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Networked HEM System Shipments by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Networked HEM System Shipments versus PEV Sales, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of Residential PV Systems and PEVs, North America: 2014-2023
  • Annual Level 2 Residential EVSE Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Historical Growth in Carsharing Membership by Region, World Markets: 2006-2013
  • Total Members in Carsharing Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from Grid Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from Home Energy Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from Residential EVSE Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual OEM Revenue from Carsharing Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Home Energy Management: Five Segments along a Continuum
  • A Comprehensive Networked HEM System Topology
  • HomePlug Topology
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Electric Vehicle Batteries http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-vehicle-batteries http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-vehicle-batteries#comments Mon, 31 Mar 2014 18:54:59 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=63762 Energy StorageSmart Energy
Global automotive manufacturers are accelerating their efforts to produce more vehicles utilizing electric drivetrains. Many factors are contributing to this trend, including newly enacted fuel economy standards, greater confidence in electric-powered vehicles, and advances in battery technology. In 2012, Toyota launched the Plug-in Prius, powered for the first time with lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries. This [...]]]>
Energy StorageSmart Energy

Global automotive manufacturers are accelerating their efforts to produce more vehicles utilizing electric drivetrains. Many factors are contributing to this trend, including newly enacted fuel economy standards, greater confidence in electric-powered vehicles, and advances in battery technology. In 2012, Toyota launched the Plug-in Prius, powered for the first time with lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries. This shift from the well-established nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) batteries to Li-ion represented a major endorsement of the ability of this chemistry to perform consistently in an automotive environment. Since then, most of the other major OEMs have introduced battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) models, almost all of which use Li-ion batteries for onboard energy storage.

The immediate future looks to be secure for the Li-ion chemistry, though there are still many variants under development to improve performance and reduce cost. Improvements continue to be made and leading battery cell manufacturers have built new factories utilizing the latest production techniques, including greater automation and faster throughput. Navigant Research forecasts that the global market for Li-ion batteries in light duty consumer vehicles will grow from $3.2 billion in 2013 to $24.1 billion in 2023.

This Navigant Research report provides a detailed examination of the growing market for Li-ion batteries, including profiles of the leading Li-ion battery manufacturers and systems integrators. The study assesses the relative sizes of the battery markets for different vehicle types, as well as vehicle roadmaps and projected sales for BEVs, PHEVs, and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). Global market forecasts for revenue from Li-ion batteries, segmented by vehicle type and region, extend through 2023. The report also includes a review of the different Li-ion battery chemistries and competing energy storage technologies, such as ultracapacitors and NiMH batteries.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • Have lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries become the industry standard for electric vehicles (EVs)?
  • Who are the leading Li-ion battery manufacturers?
  • Which key joint venture companies are working with OEMs and battery manufacturers?
  • What are the different chemistries in the EV battery market?
  • How will the cost per kilowatt-hour for Li-ion batteries change in the next several years?
  • Which vehicle segment offers the best opportunities for battery manufacturers?
  • What are the vehicle roadmaps for battery, plug-in hybrid, and hybrid electric vehicles (BEVs, PHEVs, and HEVs) through 2023?
  • What are the forecasts for revenue from Li-ion batteries through 2023?
Who needs this report?
  • Vehicle manufacturers
  • Vehicle fleet managers
  • Automotive industry suppliers
  • Battery suppliers
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  The Electric Vehicle Market

1.2  Energy Storage for EVs

1.3  Automotive Li-ion Battery Volume

1.4  World Market Highlights

2. Market Issues

2.1  Introduction

2.2  Advanced Batteries for the Transportation Market

2.3  Market Size and Segmentation

2.3.1   BEVs

2.3.2   PHEVs

2.3.3   HEVs

2.3.4   Stop-Start Vehicles

2.3.5   Commercial Vehicles

2.4  Power and Energy Requirements

2.5  Industry Growth Drivers

2.5.1   Emissions Reductions

2.5.2   Government Incentives

2.5.2.1  United States

2.5.2.2  Europe

2.5.2.3  China

2.5.2.4  Japan

2.5.2.5  South Korea

2.5.2.6  India

2.6  Different Finance Models

2.7  Battery Swapping

2.8  Grid Applications

2.8.1   Secondary Use of Batteries

2.8.2   Vehicle-to-Grid Power Delivery

2.9  Early Fleet Adopters of HEVs and PEVs

2.9.1   North America

2.9.2   China

2.9.3   Utilities

2.10   Transitioning from Early Adopters to Mainstream

2.10.1    Sensitivity to Fuel Prices

2.10.2    Ease of Purchase

2.10.3    Reliability

2.10.4    Resale Value

2.10.5    Limited Driving Range

2.11   Marketing and Commercialization

2.12   Value Chain of the Li-ion Battery Industry

2.12.1   Raw Materials

2.12.2   Cell Components and Electronics

2.12.3    Integrated Systems: Cell and Pack Manufacturers

2.12.4    Battery Manufacturer and OEM Joint Ventures

2.12.5    Materials Recycling

2.13   Requirements for Commercialization

2.13.1    Cost

2.13.2    Capacity

2.13.3    Weight and Size

2.13.4    Charge Rate

2.13.5    Performance

3. Technology Issues

3.1  Competing Energy Storage Technologies

3.1.1   Ultracapacitors

3.1.2   NiMH Batteries

3.1.3   Li-ion Batteries

3.1.4   Strengths and Weaknesses

3.2  Li-ion Batteries in Detail

3.2.1   Li-ion Battery Components

3.3  Competing Technologies in Development

3.3.1   Lithium-Air

3.3.2   Lithium Sulfur

3.3.3   Solid-State

3.4  Access to Lithium

3.5  Safety and Implementation

3.5.1   Battery Charging Levels

3.5.2   DC Fast Charging

3.5.3   Sensitivity to Temperature

4. Key Industry Players

4.1  Introduction

4.2  Battery Cell Manufacturers

4.2.1   A123 Systems

4.2.2   Altair Nanotechnologies

4.2.3   Boston-Power, Inc.

4.2.4   BYD

4.2.5   Electrovaya

4.2.6   GS Yuasa

4.2.7   Hitachi Automotive Systems

4.2.8   Johnson Controls

4.2.9   LG Chem/Compact Power

4.2.10  NEC

4.2.11  Panasonic

4.2.12  Samsung SDI

4.2.13  Toshiba

4.3  Battery Pack System Integrators

4.3.1   Automotive Energy Supply Corporation

4.3.2   Blue Energy

4.3.3   Deutsche ACCUmotive

4.3.4   Lithium Energy & Power GmbH

4.3.5   Magna E-Car

4.3.6   Primearth EV Energy Co.

4.3.7   Robert Bosch Battery Systems

4.3.8   SK Continental E-motion

4.4  Automotive Manufacturers

4.4.1   BMW

4.4.2   Chery

4.4.3   Daimler

4.4.4   Fiat Chrysler

4.4.5   Ford

4.4.6   General Motors

4.4.7   Honda

4.4.8   Hyundai

4.4.9   Mazda

4.4.10  Mitsubishi

4.4.11  Nissan

4.4.12  PSA Peugeot-Citroën

4.4.13  Renault

4.4.14  Tesla

4.4.15  Toyota

4.4.16  Volkswagen/Audi

4.4.17  Volvo

4.4.18  ZAP

4.5  Other Industry Players

4.5.1   China BAK Battery

4.5.2   XALT Energy

5. Market Forecasts

5.1  Introduction

5.2  Global EV Market

5.3  Li-ion Transportation Battery Market in the BEV Segment

5.4  Li-ion Transportation Battery Market in the PHEV Segment

5.5  Li-ion Transportation Battery Market in the HEV Segment

5.6  Li-ion Transportation Battery Market in the SSV Segment

5.7  Overall Market Assessment

5.8  Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Company Directory
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List
8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Total Li-ion Vehicle Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet BEV, PHEV, and HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV, PHEV, and HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV Li-ion Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV Li-ion Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer PHEV Li-ion Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer PHEV Li-ion Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer HEV Li-ion Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer HEV Li-ion Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty SSV Li-ion Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Stop-Start Vehicle Li-ion Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Revenue by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Vehicle Li-ion Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023

List of Tables

  • Vehicle Battery Capacities by Selected HEV and PEV Models: 2014
  • Installed New Capacity of Li-ion Batteries for Energy Storage Applications, World Markets: 2014-2022
  • Estimated Component Costs, 25 kWh LMO Battery Pack, World Markets: 2014
  • Production of Passenger PHEVs and BEVs by Make and Model, World Markets: MY 2014
  • Roadmap of Passenger PHEVs and BEVS by Model: 2015 and Beyond
  • Selected Hybrid Trucks Available by Manufacturer, World Markets: 2013
  • Selected PHEV Trucks Available or Being Developed by Drivetrain Manufacturer, World Markets: 2014
  • Selected BEV Trucks Available or Being Developed by Drivetrain Manufacturer, World Markets: 2013
  • Selected PHEV and BEV Trucks in Service or Pending Deployment by Location, World Markets: 2013
  • U.S. DOE Stimulus Grants for Battery Manufacturing by Company: 2014
  • Energy Storage Type Comparison: 2014
  • Characteristics of Commercial Ultracapacitors by Manufacturer: 2012
  • Characteristics of NiMH Batteries in Vehicle Applications by Battery Maker: 2012
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV, PHEV, and HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet BEV, PHEV, and HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV Li-ion Battery Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer PHEV Li-ion Battery Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer HEV Li-ion Battery Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Sales Revenue Including SSVs by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet Vehicle Li-ion Battery Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet Vehicle Li-ion Battery Sales Revenue Percentage of Total by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Commercial Fleet Vehicle Li-ion Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV Li-ion Transportation Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer BEV Li-ion Transportation Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer PHEV Li-ion Transportation Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer PHEV Li-ion Transportation Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer HEV Li-ion Transportation Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Consumer HEV Li-ion Transportation Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Revenue Including SSVs by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Capacity Including SSVs by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Revenue by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Revenue by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Vehicle Li-ion Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Energy Storage Technology Strengths and Weaknesses
  • Ranking of Li-ion Technology Options by Property: 2014
  • Total Vehicle Li-ion Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Capacity by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Characteristics of Li-ion Battery Chemistries
  • Adoption of Li-ion Battery Chemistry by Battery Vendor and Vehicle OEM
  • Li-ion Battery Components, Functions, and Materials
  • Major Cathode Chemistries for Li-ion Batteries: 2014
  • Key EV Battery Player Map: 2014
  • Vehicle Battery Details by Selected HEV and PEV Models: 2014
  • Li-ion Battery Price by Battery Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Medium/Heavy Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty SSV Li-ion Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty SSV Li-ion Transportation Battery Energy Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Light Duty Consumer Vehicle Li-ion Battery Capacity Percentage by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty SSV Li-ion Battery Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Annual Growth in Total Light Duty SSV Li-ion Battery Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty SSV Li-ion Battery Revenue by Country, World Markets: 2013-2023
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Aviation and Marine Biofuels http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/aviation-and-marine-biofuels http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/aviation-and-marine-biofuels#comments Tue, 11 Mar 2014 21:29:07 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=63177 Renewable EnergySmart Energy
Viewed as a game changer in the race to commercialize advanced biofuels, aviation and marine biofuels represent a very significant opportunity for emerging producers in the advanced biofuels industry. Demand for advanced biofuels produced from sustainable, non-food feedstocks is largely driven by a need to hedge against increases in fuel costs, compliance with emerging emissions [...]]]>
Renewable EnergySmart Energy

Viewed as a game changer in the race to commercialize advanced biofuels, aviation and marine biofuels represent a very significant opportunity for emerging producers in the advanced biofuels industry. Demand for advanced biofuels produced from sustainable, non-food feedstocks is largely driven by a need to hedge against increases in fuel costs, compliance with emerging emissions regulations, and certification of advanced biofuels pathways. Lacking a viable alternative to liquid fuels, aircraft manufacturers, turbine engine manufacturers, and commercial airlines have partnered in flying more than 600,000 miles powered by biofuels since 2008. Additional concerns around energy security and combat readiness has led to a deepening interest within the U.S. military.

Although the emerging aviation and marine biofuels market has expanded rapidly in recent years, feedstock constraints and high capital investment requirements will need to be overcome for the industry to meet aspirational growth targets. Led by North America, installed nameplate production capacity is expected to reach 3.3 billion gallons by 2024, representing 1.5% of total aviation and marine fuel consumption. Navigant Research forecasts that a cumulative total of 18.2 billion gallons to 19.6 billion gallons of renewable drop-in aviation and marine biofuels could be produced between 2014 and 2024, dependent on the two refinery scenarios analyzed in the report.

This Navigant Research report provides forecasts and market sizing for nameplate production capacity and production volumes for advanced aviation and marine biofuels. Forecasts are segmented by geography, conversion platform, and fuel type. The total addressable market size for commercial aviation, marine shipping, and U.S. military applications are discussed. This report also provides a qualitative analysis of key stakeholder initiatives, market drivers, challenges, and technology developments, as well as profiles of key stakeholders across the value chain.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What is the current addressable market for commercial aviation, marine shipping, and U.S. military fuel consumption?
  • What is the forecast nameplate production capacity for advanced biorefineries producing drop-in renewable fuels?
  • What is the forecast production volume of drop-in aviation and marine biofuels?
  • Who are the key stakeholders in the emerging aviation and marine biofuels value chain?
  • What are the emerging feedstock opportunities driving the production of aviation and marine biofuels?
Who needs this report?
  • Feedstock growers and suppliers
  • Advanced biofuels producers
  • Petroleum producers and refiners
  • Commercial airlines and shipping companies
  • Port operators
  • Military agencies
  • Government agencies and policymakers
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Market Issues

1.2  Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues  

2.1  Market Overview

2.1.1   Biofuels in the Global Fuel Supply

2.1.2   Renewable Drop-in Biofuels Overview

2.1.3   Role of Aviation and Marine Biofuels

2.1.4   Key Trends

2.2  Market Opportunities

2.2.1   Commercial Aviation

2.2.2   Commercial Marine Shipping

2.2.3   Military

2.2.4   Specialty Fuels

   2.2.4.1  General Aviation

   2.2.4.2  Missile Fuel

2.3  Market Drivers

2.3.1   Aspirational Targets

2.3.2   Fuel Supply Diversity

   2.3.2.1  Rising Oil Costs

   2.3.2.2  Price Volatility

   2.3.2.3  U.S. Military and Energy Security

2.3.3   Alternative Fuel Mandates

   2.3.3.1  RFS2

   2.3.3.2  RED

   2.3.3.3  Indonesian Aviation Act

2.3.4   Emissions Reduction

   2.3.4.1  EU Emissions Trading System and Aviation Amendments

   2.3.4.2  Marine Pollution and Emission Control Areas Regulations

2.4  Market Barriers

2.4.1   High Cost

   2.4.1.1  Biorefinery Construction Costs

   2.4.1.2  Finished Fuel Costs

2.4.2   Feedstock Limits

2.4.3   Fuel Certification

2.5  Emerging Feedstock Supply Chains

2.5.1   MSW

2.5.2   Waste Gases

2.5.3   Jatropha, Camelina, and Carinata

2.5.4   Halophytes

2.5.5   Algae

2.6  Value Chain Initiatives

2.6.1   Commercial Airline Biofuel Flights

2.6.2   Aviation Biofuel Consortiums

2.6.3   U.S. Navy’s Great Green Fleet

3. Technology Issues 

3.1  Technology Overview

3.2  Emerging Aviation and Marine Biofuel Conversion Pathways

3.2.1   HEFA Fuels

3.2.2   FT Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene

3.2.3   ATJ

3.2.4   Pyrolysis-to-jet

3.2.5   Fermented Renewable Jet Fuel

3.3  Biotechnology (Feedstock) Developments

3.3.1     Emerging Aviation and Marine Biofuel Feedstocks

3.3.2   Advanced Projects Research Agency-Energy Plants Engineered to Replace Oil Program

3.4  Advanced Biofuels Production

3.4.1   Front-End Conversion Advances

3.4.2   Back-End Conversion Advances

3.5  Biorefinery Business Models

3.5.1   Integrated Biorefinery

3.5.2   Hub and Spoke Model

3.5.3   Bioport Model

3.6  Certification and Testing

3.6.1   ASTM

   3.6.1.1  Aviation Fuel Certifications

   3.6.1.2  Marine Fuel Certifications

3.6.2   Military Certification

4. Key Industry Players  

4.1  Key Player Overview

4.2  Feedstock Suppliers

4.2.1   SGB

4.3  OEMs

4.3.1   Airbus

4.3.2   Boeing

4.3.3   General Electric Aviation

4.3.4   Pratt & Whitney

4.3.5   Rolls-Royce

4.3.6   Wärtsilä

4.4  Advanced Biofuel Producers

4.4.1   AltAir Fuels

4.4.2   Amyris

4.4.3   Chevron Lummus Global

4.4.4   Gevo

4.4.5   LanzaTech

4.4.6   Neste Oil

4.4.7   Primus Green Energy

4.4.8   Renewable Energy Group

4.4.9   SkyNRG

4.4.10   Solazyme

4.4.11   Solena Fuels

4.4.12   UOP

4.5  End Users

4.5.1   Commercial Carriers

4.5.2   Maersk Group

4.5.3   Schipol Group

5. Market Forecasts   

5.1  Forecast Overview

5.1.1   Forecast Segments

5.1.2   Key Inflection Points

5.2  Aviation and Marine Biofuel Forecasts

5.3  Nameplate Production Capacity Forecast by Region and Key Market

5.3.1   Production Capacity by Region

5.3.2   Revenue by Region

5.3.3   Key Markets

   5.3.3.1  United States

   5.3.3.2  EU

   5.3.3.3  Brazil

   5.3.3.4  China

5.4  Nameplate Production Capacity Forecast by Conversion Platform

5.5  Fuel Production Volume Forecast by Fuel Type

5.5.1     High Jet/Low Distillate Scenario

5.5.2   Low Jet/High Distillate Scenario

5.6  Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Company Directory
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List
8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Installed Aviation and Marine Biofuels Nameplate Production Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Installed Aviation and Marine Biofuels Nameplate Production Capacity by Producer, World Markets: 2007-2013
  • DOD Petroleum Consumption by Service, United States: 2012
  • DOD Fuel Consumption Mix by Fuel Type, United States: 2008
  • Global AvGas Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2010
  • Cost Comparison of Petroleum Jet Fuel, Marine Bunker, and Biofuels Alternatives: 2014-2024
  • Share of Municipal Solid Waste Generation by Region, World Markets: 2010-2020
  • Commercial Airline Biofuel Miles Flown by Flight Type, World Markets: 2008-2013
  • Cumulative Revenue from Biorefinery Construction and Fuel Sales by Fuel Product Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Share of Biofuels in Aviation and Marine Fuel Mix by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Nameplate Aviation and Marine Biofuels Production Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Cumulative Revenue from Biorefinery Construction by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Nameplate Production Capacity by Biorefinery Platform and Cumulative Revenue, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Cumulative Revenue from Fuel Sales by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Production by Fuel Type, High Jet/Low Distillate Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Production by Fuel Type, Low Jet/High Distillate Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Emerging Aviation and Marine Biofuel Pathways
  • HEFA Production Pathway
  • FT-SPK Production Pathway
  • ATJ Production Pathway
  • HDCJ Production Pathway
  • FRJ Production Pathway
  • Products Made from a Barrel of Crude Oil (Gallons)
  • Overview of Bio-Based Value Chain

List of Tables

  • Installed Aviation and Marine Biofuels Nameplate Production Capacity by Producer, World Markets: 2007-2013
  • Biofuel Miles Traveled by Commercial Airlines, World Markets: 2008-2014
  • Top 50 Global Container Fleet Operators: 2012
  • Military Biofuels Demonstrations, World Markets: 2010-2013
  • Profile of Potential Aviation and Marine Biofuels Markets
  • Aspirational Biofuel Targets by Organization
  • Average Refinery Capital Cost by Resource, World Markets: 2012
  • Potential Aviation and Marine Biofuels Feedstocks by Category
  • Sampling of Aviation Biofuel Initiatives, World Markets: 2014
  • Comparison of Feedstock Pathway Attributes: 2014
  • Aviation Biofuel ASTM Certification Timeline
  • Other Feedstock Producers
  • Early Adopter Commercial Airlines
  • Finished Aviation and Marine Biofuel Pathways
  • Assumed Biorefinery Fuel Production Cut by Conversion Platform
  • Installed Aviation and Marine Biofuels Nameplate Production Capacity by Producer, World Markets: 2007-2013
  • DOD Petroleum Consumption by Service, United States: 2012
  • DOD Fuel Consumption Mix by Fuel Type, United States: 2008
  • Profile of Potential Aviation and Marine Biofuels Markets
  • Global AvGas Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2010
  • Cost Comparison of Petroleum Jet Fuel, Marine Bunker, and Biofuels Alternatives: 2014-2024
  • Share of Municipal Solid Waste Generation by Region, World Markets: 2010-2020
  • Commercial Airline Biofuel Miles Flown by Flight Type, World Markets: 2008-2013
  • Cumulative Revenue of Aviation and Marine Biofuels Market by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Annual Aviation and Marine Fuel Consumption of All Sources by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Annual Commercial and Military Jet Fuel Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Annual Commercial Shipping and Military Marine Bunker Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Share of Biofuels in Aviation and Marine Fuel Market by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Installed Aviation and Marine Biofuels Nameplate Production Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Installed Aviation and Marine Biofuels Nameplate Production Capacity by Conversion Platform, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Aviation and Marine Biofuels Production by Fuel Spec (High Jet/Low Distillate), World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Aviation and Marine Biofuels Production by Fuel Spec (Low Jet/High Distillate), World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Revenue from New Aviation and Marine Biorefineries by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Annual Revenue from New Aviation and Marine Biorefineries by Conversion Platform, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Cumulative Revenue from New Aviation and Marine Biorefineries by Conversion Platform, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Annual Revenue from Aviation and Marine Biofuels Production by Fuel Spec (High Jet/Low Distillate), World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Annual Aviation and Marine Biofuels Production by Fuel Spec (Low Jet/High Distillate), World Markets: 2014-2024
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Wireless Charging Systems for Electric Vehicles http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/wireless-charging-systems-for-electric-vehicles http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/wireless-charging-systems-for-electric-vehicles#comments Tue, 25 Feb 2014 02:48:44 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=62614 Smart Transportation
Until recently, the prospects for wireless electric vehicle (EV) charging appeared limited, if a market developed at all. That has changed in the last 12 months. It is now clear that several major automakers are planning to bring wireless systems to market within the next few years, and a significant portion of the industry believes [...]]]>
Smart Transportation

Until recently, the prospects for wireless electric vehicle (EV) charging appeared limited, if a market developed at all. That has changed in the last 12 months. It is now clear that several major automakers are planning to bring wireless systems to market within the next few years, and a significant portion of the industry believes that wireless technology represents the future of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) charging.

As of early 2014, there is only one commercial wireless charging system available for PEVs, an aftermarket system offered by Evatran and Bosch, and it is only available in North America. Automakers and their Tier One suppliers continue to be reticent on their plans for wireless EV charging. Most wireless charging systems are in the pilot phase and are likely to remain there for another 2 to 3 years. By 2015-2016, however, models with built-in wireless charging capability will be available from several major automakers. Within a decade, wireless charging could be the leading way of charging EVs. Navigant Research forecasts that wireless charging equipment for light duty vehicles will grow by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 108% from 2013 to 2022, reaching annual sales of slightly less than 302,000 units in 2022.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the fledgling market for wireless charging systems for EVs. The study examines the technology of wireless EV charging and the efforts of technology developers, working in partnership with automakers, to bring systems to market. Global market forecasts for sales of wireless EV charging systems, segmented by region, extend through 2022. The report also looks at the demand drivers and market barriers associated with wireless EV charging, along with the efforts of automakers to incorporate wireless charging capability into their EV models.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What are the primary benefits and disadvantages of wireless electric vehicle (EV) charging?
  • What are the technological issues associated with wireless EV charging?
  • Who are the key players in developing wireless EV charging systems?
  • How have the wireless EV charging strategies of the major automakers shifted in the last 6 to 12 months?
  • What factors will determine the rate of adoption of wireless EV charging through 2022?
  • How will the adoption of wireless EV charging influence the overall market for EVs?
Who needs this report?
  • Automakers
  • EV supply equipment (EVSE) suppliers
  • Municipalities and government agencies
  • Integrators and auto supply companies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Market Update

2.1  Introduction to Wireless Electric Vehicle Charging Systems

2.2  Demand Drivers

2.2.1     Convenience

2.2.2     Automaker Incentives

2.3  Market Barriers

2.3.1     Price

2.3.2     Efficiency

2.3.3     Market Size

2.4  Technology Issues

2.4.1     Wireless Power Transfer

2.4.2     Proximity Requirements

2.4.3     Power Transfer Efficiency

2.4.4     Technology Standards

2.4.5     Safety

2.4.6     Dynamic Charging

2.4.7     Charging Stations

2.5  Market Issues and Forecasts

2.6  Key Players

2.6.1     Evatran

2.6.2     Qualcomm

2.6.3     WiTricity

3. Conclusions and Recommendations

List of Charts and Figures

  • Wireless EVSE Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Total EVSE Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Annual Wireless EVSE Unit Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Wireless EV Charging System
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Light Duty Natural Gas Vehicles http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/light-duty-natural-gas-vehicles http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/light-duty-natural-gas-vehicles#comments Thu, 20 Feb 2014 06:04:52 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=62451 Smart Transportation
Natural gas supplies have increased in many parts of the world during recent years due to new pipelines and hydraulic fracturing. This increase has led to reduced prices for natural gas and the wider geographic availability of vehicle refueling. As a result, interest has been renewed in utilizing natural gas as a transportation fuel to [...]]]>
Smart Transportation

Natural gas supplies have increased in many parts of the world during recent years due to new pipelines and hydraulic fracturing. This increase has led to reduced prices for natural gas and the wider geographic availability of vehicle refueling. As a result, interest has been renewed in utilizing natural gas as a transportation fuel to reduce both the use of oil and greenhouse gas emissions.

Momentum in the light duty (LD) natural gas vehicle (NGV) market has been particularly strong in Asia Pacific and North America. The number of LD NGVs on the road is expected to grow dramatically during the next 10 years in the key markets of China, India, Thailand, and the United States. While mature markets like Italy and Ukraine are anticipated to see growth, demand for LD NGVs in European countries will remain relatively uneven from country to country. Navigant Research forecasts that global annual LD NGV sales will grow from 2.3 million vehicles in 2014 to 3.8 million in 2023.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global market for natural gas passenger cars and light duty trucks, including pickup trucks, SUVs, minivans, and vans. The study provides an analysis of the market issues and drivers associated with LD NGVs, including refueling availability, competing alternative drive technology, total cost of ownership, vehicle availability, and government influence. Global market forecasts for vehicle sales, vehicles on the road, and fuel used, broken out by region, segment, and drivetrain, extend through 2023. The report also examines the key technologies related to natural gas storage on vehicles, as well as the major players within the market.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • Where are the largest markets for natural gas passenger cars and light trucks?
  • How important are the consumer and fleet markets to light duty natural gas vehicle (NGV) sales?
  • What role do government emissions restrictions and purchase incentives play in the NGV market?
  • What types of compressed natural gas (CNG) cylinders are used in natural gas cars and trucks?
  • What technological changes are expected to improve the efficiency of natural gas cars and trucks?
  • How many natural gas refueling stations are available worldwide?
  • How much natural gas will be used by light duty vehicles??
  • Which U.S. states are likely to see the greatest numbers of natural gas cars and trucks?
Who needs this report?
  • OEM marketing managers and product planners
  • NGV conversion/upfitter companies
  • Vehicle component suppliers
  • CNG cylinder manufacturerss
  • Natural gas utilities
  • Fleet manager consultants
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Market Overview

1.2  Technical Issues

1.3  Key Players

1.4  Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues

2.1  Background

2.1.1   Market Definition

2.1.2   Passenger Cars

2.1.3   LD Trucks

2.2  The Manufacturing Process of NGVs

2.2.1   Role of OEM-Certified Vehicle Conversion Programs

2.3  Competing Technologies

2.3.1   Gasoline and Diesel

2.3.2   Biofuels

2.3.3   Hybrid and Electric Vehicles

2.3.4   Propane/Autogas

2.3.5   Fuel Cell Vehicles

2.4  NG Supply

2.4.1   Gas Drilling

2.4.2   Pipelines

2.4.3   Hydraulic Fracturing

2.5  Refueling Availability

2.5.1   Refueling Stations

2.5.2   Home Refueling Appliances

2.6  Government Influence

2.6.1   North America

2.6.2   Europe

2.6.3   Asia Pacific

2.6.4   Other Regions

3. Market Drivers

3.1  Ownership Costs

3.1.1   Incremental Costs

3.1.2   Fuel Costs

3.2  Vehicle Availability

3.2.1   North America

3.2.2   Europe

3.2.3   Asia Pacific

3.2.4   Latin America

3.2.5   Middle East & Africa

4. Technology Issues

4.1  Chemical Characteristics of NG

4.1.1   CNG

4.1.2   Bio-Natural Gas

4.2  Vehicle Technology

4.2.1   CNG Cylinders

4.2.2   Advanced Low-Pressure Storage

4.2.3   NG in Direct Injection Engines

4.2.4   Future Potential for LNG

4.3  CNG Refueling Infrastructure

5. Key Industry Players

5.1  Key Players

5.1.1   Fiat Group Automobiles SPA

5.1.2   Ford Motor Co.

5.1.3   GM

5.1.4   Honda Motor Co., Ltd.

5.1.5   IMPCO Technologies

5.1.6   Landi Renzo SPA

5.1.7   Magneti Marelli SPA

5.1.8   Mercedes-Benz

5.1.9   Robert Bosch GmbH

5.1.10   Suzuki

5.1.11   VW

5.1.12   Westport Innovations, Inc.

5.1.12.1   BAF Technologies (Subsidiary of Westport Innovations)

5.2  Industry Players

5.2.1   Altech-Eco Corp.

5.2.2   BRC Gas Equipment

5.2.3   Chrysler Group, LLC

5.2.4   Clean Energy Fuels

5.2.5   Delphi Automotive LLP

5.2.6   Fuel Systems Solutions, Inc.

5.2.7   General Electric

5.2.8   GNC Galileo

5.2.9   Hyundai Motor Group

5.2.10   Leggett & Platt Commercial Vehicle Products

5.2.11   NatGasCar, LLC

5.2.12   Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies Worldwide, Inc.

5.2.13   Renault

5.2.14   Toyota Motor Corp.

5.2.15   Venchurs Vehicle Systems

6. Market Forecasts

6.1  LD Vehicle Sales Forecasts

6.2  Cumulative LD Vehicles on the Roads Forecasts

6.3  Refueling Infrastructure Forecasts

6.3.1   Home Refueling Appliances in North America

6.4  Fuel Consumption by Transportation Forecasts

6.5  Conclusions and Recommendations

6.5.1   North America

6.5.2   Europe

6.5.3   Asia Pacific

6.5.4   Rest of the World

7. Company Directory
8. Acronym and Abbreviation List
9. Table of Contents
10. Table of Charts and Figures
11. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Cumulative Light Duty NGVs on the Road by Segment, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Natural Gas Gross Withdrawals, United States: 2007-2011
  • 15 Global Markets with Lowest Square Miles per NGV Refueling Station: 2013
  • Total Cost of Ownership Comparison between Gasoline and CNG Pickup Trucks,  United States:
    Over 8 Years
  • Estimated Market Share of CNG Vehicle OEMs, Western Europe: 2013
  • Historical Light Duty NGV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2009-2013
  • Annual Light Duty NGV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Consumer and Fleet Share of CNG Vehicle Sales, World Market: 2014-2023
  • Annual Light Duty NGV Sales by Segment, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Annual Sales of CNG Cylinders Used in Light Duty Vehicles by Segment, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Cumulative Light Duty Vehicles on the Road by Alternative Drivetrain, World Markets:  2014-2023
  • Cumulative Light Duty NGVs on the Road by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Cumulative Light Duty NGVs on the Road, Top Five States: 2014-2023
  • Cumulative NGV Refueling Stations by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Natural Gas Consumed by Vehicles by Segment, World Markets: 2014-2023

List of Tables

  • Cumulative Light Duty NGVs on the Road by Segment, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • NGVs Available and Conversion Companies, North America: 2009-2015
  • Properties of Natural Gas Compared to Other Fuels
  • Fiat SWOT Analysis
  • Ford SWOT Analysis
  • GM SWOT Analysis
  • Honda SWOT Analysis
  • IMPCO SWOT Analysis
  • Landi Renzo SWOT Analysis
  • Magneti Marelli SWOT Analysis
  • Mercedes-Benz SWOT Analysis
  • Suzuki SWOT Analysis
  • Bosch SWOT Analysis
  • Total Annual Light Duty NGV Sales by Segment, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Volkswagen SWOT Analysis
  • Westport Innovations SWOT Analysis
  • CNG Refueling Stations, Top 10 States: 2011-2013
  • Corporate Average Fuel Economy Regulations, United States: 2013-2025
  • NGV Incentives by Region, United States: 2013
  • NGV Incentives by Country, Europe: 2013
  • NGVs Available and Conversion Companies, North America: 2009-2015
  • NGVs Available, Western Europe: 2011-2014
  • Estimated Total Cost of Ownership Comparison, United States: 2013
  • Estimated Annual CNG Pickup Vehicle Total Cost of Ownership, United States: Over 8 Years
  • Estimated Annual Gasoline Pickup Truck Total Cost of Ownership, United States: Over 8 Years
  • Average Gasoline Price by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Average Diesel Price by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Average CNG Price by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • CNG as a Percentage of Gasoline Prices by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Gross Domestic Product by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Properties of Natural Gas Compared to Other Fuels
  • Cumulative CNG Refueling Stations by State, United States: 2011-2013
  • Total Annual Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2009-2023
  • Total Annual Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Annual NGV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2009-2023
  • Growth Rate of Annual NGV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2010-2023
  • Annual Natural Gas Passenger Car Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Annual Natural Gas Light Duty Truck/Commercial Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Annual Light Duty NGV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • NGV Sales as a Percentage of Total Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Annual Light Duty NGV Consumer Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Total Annual Light Duty NGV Fleet Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • NGV Percentage of Total Light Duty Fleet Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Annual Light Duty NGV Sales by Segment, North America: 2013-2023
  • Annual Light Duty NGV Sales by Segment, Western Europe: 2013-2023
  • Annual Light Duty NGV Sales by Segment, Eastern Europe: 2013-2023
  • Annual Light Duty NGV Sales by Segment, Asia Pacific: 2013-2023
  • Annual Light Duty NGV Sales by Segment, Latin America: 2013-2023
  • Annual Light Duty NGV Sales by Segment, Middle East & Africa: 2013-2023
  • Cumulative Light Duty Vehicles on the Road by Alternative Drivetrain, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Cumulative Natural Gas Passenger Cars on the Road by Region, World Markets:  2013-2023
  • Cumulative Light Duty Natural Gas Trucks on the Road by Region, World Markets:  2013-2023
  • Total Light Duty NGVs on the Road by Region, World Markets:  2013-2023
  • Cumulative Light Duty NGVs on the Road by State, United States: 2013-2023
  • Percentage of Light Duty NGVs on the Road by State, United States: 2013-2023
  • Cumulative NGV Refueling Stations by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Top 25 Markets with Fewest Square Miles per Station: 2013
  • Natural Gas Consumed by Vehicles by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Percentage of Natural Gas Used in Transportation Consumed by Light Duty Vehicles, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Annual Sales of CNG Cylinders Used in Passenger Cars by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Annual Sales of CNG Cylinders Used in Light Duty Trucks by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Annual Sales of CNG Cylinders Used in Medium Duty/Heavy Duty Trucks and Buses by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Light Duty Percentage of CNG Cylinders Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
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Biofuels for Transportation Markets http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/biofuels-for-transportation-markets http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/biofuels-for-transportation-markets#comments Tue, 04 Feb 2014 21:58:18 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=61955 Renewable EnergySmart Energy
Since the turn of the millennium, biofuels have been a leading solution to mitigating the energy security, environmental security, and economic security issues associated with petroleum dependency. In the last 10 years, an increase in ethanol production capacity in the United States and Brazil, and biodiesel in Europe, has resulted in biofuels gaining a foothold [...]]]>
Renewable EnergySmart Energy

Since the turn of the millennium, biofuels have been a leading solution to mitigating the energy security, environmental security, and economic security issues associated with petroleum dependency. In the last 10 years, an increase in ethanol production capacity in the United States and Brazil, and biodiesel in Europe, has resulted in biofuels gaining a foothold in the global market for liquid fuels. The global biofuels industry is now on the verge of entering a new phase of development focused on advanced and drop-in biofuels.

Conventional biofuels – ethanol and biodiesel – are the most near-term solutions to displacing petroleum-based fuel consumption in the road transportation sector. Further advances in biofuels derived from non-food feedstocks and biofuels that are drop-in-capable promise to significantly alter the petroleum industry landscape. Governments and industries are looking at ways to replace the whole barrel of oil by developing biofuels for all forms of transportation: road, aviation, and maritime. Despite the huge potential, however, biofuels are still challenged by issues such as feedstock access, supply chain infrastructure development, and achieving price parity with the well-established petroleum industry. Navigant Research forecasts that global biofuels consumption in the road transportation sector will grow from more than 32.4 billion gallons per year (BGPY) in 2013 to more than 51.1 BGPY in 2022.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the emerging markets and future growth opportunities for biofuels, including ethanol, biodiesel, and drop-in biofuels. The study provides an analysis of the major demand drivers and market challenges related to biofuels technologies. Global market forecasts of vehicle sales and parcs and liquid fuels consumption, station installations, and revenue extend through 2022. The report also examines the key technologies associated with biofuels, as well as the competitive landscape.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What are the technical challenges related to the commercialization of advanced biofuels technologies?
  • What government regulations and mandates are driving biofuels market growth?
  • Which regional markets are the best opportunities for biofuels technology development and consumption?
  • What are the principal market issues that influence policy development surrounding biofuels?
  • What are the pathways by which biofuels reach all global markets?
  • Where are innovations along the supply line needed to make biofuels competitive with petroleum-based fuels?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive OEMs
  • Fuel distributors
  • Infrastructure developers
  • Oil and chemical companies
  • Agriculture companies
  • Government agencies
  • Advocacy organizations
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Introduction

1.2  Market Overview

1.3  Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues

2.1  Introduction

2.1.1   Brief History

2.1.2   Government Involvement

2.2  Market Drivers

2.2.1   Energy Security

2.2.2   Environmental Concerns

2.2.3   Economic Development

2.2.4   Military Demand

2.2.5   Aviation Biofuels

2.3  Market Challenges

2.3.1   Price Parity

2.3.2   Infrastructure

2.3.2.1  Ethanol

2.3.2.2  Biodiesel

2.3.2.3  Drop-In Fuels

2.3.3   Environmental and Social Concerns

2.3.3.1  Food versus Fuel

2.3.3.2  Land Use Change

2.3.3.3  Biofuels-Water Nexus

2.3.4   Other Alternative Fuel Technologies

2.4  Regional Analysis

2.4.1   North America

2.4.1.1  RFS2

2.4.1.2  CAFE Standards

2.4.1.3  California’s LCFS

2.4.1.4  Loan Guarantees and Grants

2.4.2   Europe

2.4.2.1  EU Renewable Energy Directive

2.4.3   Latin America

2.4.3.1  Brazil’s ProAlcool Policy

2.4.4   Asia Pacific

2.4.4.1  China’s 12th Five-Year Plan

2.4.5   Rest of World

3. Technology Issues

3.1  Introduction

3.1.1   Feedstock

3.1.2   Biofuels Pathways

3.2  Ethanol

3.2.1   Conventional Ethanol Production

3.2.2   Cellulosic Ethanol Production

3.2.3   Ethanol Distribution

3.2.3.1  E-Diesel

3.2.4   Ethanol Consumption

3.2.4.1  Octane Rating

3.2.4.2  Engine Modifications

3.2.4.3  Efficiency

3.2.4.4  Emissions

3.3  Biodiesel

3.3.1   Biodiesel Production

3.3.2   Biodiesel Distribution

3.3.3   Biodiesel Consumption

3.3.3.1  Engine Modifications

3.3.3.2  Efficiency

3.3.3.3  Emissions

3.4  Drop-In Biofuels

3.4.1   Drop-In Biodiesel Production

3.4.2   Bio-Oil

3.4.3   Algae-Based Biofuels

3.5  Biogas

3.6  Other Advanced Biomass-Based Fuels

3.7  Standards

4. Key Industry Players

4.1  Introduction

4.2  Industry Associations and Research Organizations

4.2.1   Advanced Biofuels Association

4.2.2   Algae Biomass Organization

4.2.3   Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association

4.2.4   National Association of Automobile Manufacturers – Brazil

4.2.5   NREL

4.2.6   Swedish Bioenergy Association

4.2.7   The Association for Convenience & Fuel Retailing

4.3  Biofuels Producers

4.3.1   Abengoa Bioenergía

4.3.2   Archer Daniels Midland

4.3.3   Honeywell UOP

4.3.4   KiOR

4.3.5   REG Life Sciences

4.3.6   Virent Energy Systems

4.4  Fuel Suppliers/Distributors

4.4.1   BP

4.4.2   Chevron

4.4.3   Ethanol Europe Renewables Ltd.

4.4.4   Petrobras

4.4.5   Preem

4.4.6   Propel Fuels

4.4.7   Protec Fuels

4.4.8   Royal Dutch Shell

4.5  Infrastructure Equipment Suppliers

4.5.1   Gilbarco Veeder-Root

4.5.2   Sundyne

4.5.3   Wastecorp Pumps

4.6  Vehicle Manufacturers

4.6.1   BMW

4.6.2   Chrysler

4.6.3   Daimler

4.6.4   FIAT

4.6.5   Ford

4.6.6   General Motors

4.6.7   PSA Peugeot Citroën

4.6.8   Renault

4.6.9   Scania

4.6.10 Volkswagen

4.6.11 Volvo

4.7  Other Industry Participants

5. Market Forecasts

5.1  Methodology

5.2  Vehicle Sales

5.2.1   Diesel Vehicle Sales

5.2.2   FFV Sales

5.3  Vehicle Parc

5.3.1   FFV Parc

5.3.2   LD Diesel Vehicle Parc

5.4  Liquid Fuels Consumption

5.4.1   Biofuels Consumption

5.4.1.1  North America

5.4.1.2  Europe

5.4.1.3  Asia Pacific

5.4.1.4  Latin America

5.4.1.5  Middle East & Africa

5.5  Infrastructure

5.6  Revenue

5.6.1   Consumption Revenue

5.6.2   Infrastructure and Equipment Installation Revenue

5.7  Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Company Directory
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List
8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Biofuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Light Duty Diesel Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Flex-Fuel Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Light Duty Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2022
  • Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2022
  • Flex-Fuel Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Light Duty Diesel Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Liquid Fuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Fuel, World Markets: 2022
  • Biofuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Fuel, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Biofuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Fuel, North America: 2013-2022
  • Biofuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Fuel, Western Europe: 2013-2022
  • Biofuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Fuel, Eastern Europe: 2013-2022
  • Biofuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Fuel, Asia Pacific: 2013-2022
  • Biofuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Fuel, Latin America: 2013-2022
  • Biofuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Fuel, Middle East & Africa: 2013-2022
  • Cumulative Petroleum Refueling Stations by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Cumulative Flex-Fuel Station Installations by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Cumulative Biodiesel (B20+) Infrastructure Installations by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Total Liquid Fuels Retail Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Total Liquid Fuels Retail Sales Revenue by Fuel, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Flex-Fuel Station Installation Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • B20+ Station Installation Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Retail Fuel Prices by Type and Region, World Markets: 2013-2022

List of Tables

  • National Ethanol Mandates by Country, World Markets: 2013
  • National Biodiesel Blending Mandates by Country, World Markets: 2013
  • Flex-Fuel Vehicle Availability by Region, World Markets: 2013
  • Modifications to Engines by Ethanol/Gasoline Blend and Vehicle Drivetrain Component
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Flex-Fuel Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Light Duty Diesel Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Medium and Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Light Duty Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Flex-Fuel Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Light Duty Diesel Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Medium and Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Total Liquid Fuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Biofuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Gasoline Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Ethanol Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Diesel Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Diesel Consumed by Light Duty Vehicles by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Diesel Consumed by Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Biodiesel Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Drop-In Biofuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Biofuels Share of Total Liquid Fuels Consumption in the Road Transportation Sector by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Cumulative Petroleum Refueling Stations by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Cumulative Flex-Fuel Station Installations by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Other Industry Participants
  • E-85 Infrastructure Installation Additions by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Cumulative Biodiesel (B20+) Infrastructure Installations by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Biodiesel (B20+) Infrastructure Installation Additions by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Types of Biofuels
  • Total Liquid Fuels Retail Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Gasoline Retail Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Diesel Retail Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Biofuels Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Ethanol Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Biodiesel Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Drop-In Biofuels Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Flex-Fuel Station Installation Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • B20+ Station Installation Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Fuel Retail Gasoline Prices by Country, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Fuel Retail Diesel Prices by Country, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Anhydrous Ethanol Price, Brazil (World Price): 2013-2022
  • Average Spot Price of Crude Oil, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Renewable Fuel Standard Implementation Schedule; United States: 2008-2022
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Electric Vehicles: 10 Predictions for 2014 http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-vehicles-10-predictions-for-2014 http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-vehicles-10-predictions-for-2014#comments Mon, 06 Jan 2014 19:25:24 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=60960 Smart Transportation
By the end of 2014, more than 700,000 plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) will be driving on roads around the world. Automakers will introduce several dozen new PEV models – from small city cars to higher-priced luxury vehicles – during the year, offering consumers unprecedented choice in emissions-free driving. The continued penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) [...]]]>
Smart Transportation

By the end of 2014, more than 700,000 plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) will be driving on roads around the world. Automakers will introduce several dozen new PEV models – from small city cars to higher-priced luxury vehicles – during the year, offering consumers unprecedented choice in emissions-free driving. The continued penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) will affect the power grid and revenue streams for automakers, resulting in the emergence of new business models and first-time relationships between new partners. In order to analyze the impacts of these and other key issues facing the EV industry, Navigant Research has prepared this white paper that makes 10 predictions about the continuing evolution of the market in 2014 and beyond.
Topics covered in the paper include:

  • Likelihood of automakers meeting ZEV mandates in U.S. states
  • Diversification of automaker revenue streams to include EV-related services
  • Environmental benefits of EVs
  • Increasing competition in the luxury EV market
  • Commercialization of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs)
  • Participation of vehicles in grid services
  • Development of commercial wireless EV charging

This Navigant Research white paper analyzes 10 key trends that will influence the development of the EV market in 2014 and beyond. Conclusions and predictions in this paper are drawn from Navigant Research’s ongoing Smart Transportation program research coverage, with forecasts included for key market sectors.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What will be the most important developments in the global electric vehicle (EV) industry in 2014?
  • What will be the most important developments in the global two-wheel EV market?
  • How will EVs reshape urban driving and the impact of transportation on the environment?
  • How will the arrival of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) affect the EV industry?
  • Which segments within the EV market will see the most important model launches from automakers?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive OEMs and suppliers
  • EV charging equipment manufacturers
  • Smart grid companies
  • Utilities
  • Fleet managers
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Introduction

2. Electric Vehicles: 10 Predictions for 2014

2.1   Automakers Accelerate Push for Changes in the California ZEV Mandates

2.2   Tesla Motors Will Have a Volatile Year

2.3   Electric Motorcycles Breakout as Transportation Alternative

2.4   EV Makers Pursue Revenue Beyond Vehicle Sales

2.5   Fuel Cell Car Launches Will Spur a New Round of “Fuel Cell Vehicle versus Battery Electric Vehicle” Hype

2.6   EVs Will Play a Leading Role in Carshare Growth

2.7   Wireless Charging Moves from the Lab to the Street

2.8   EVs Will Reduce Vehicle Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the United States by More Than 1 Million Tons

2.9   More Than 2.2 Million Electric-Drive Motors Will Ship in 2014

2.10  Vehicle-to-Grid Pilot Projects will Expand and Begin Generating Revenue across the United States

3.  Acronym and Abbreviation List
4.  Table of Contents
5.  Table of Charts and Figures
6. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts

  • PEV Percentage of Light Duty Vehicle Sales, Eight ZEV States: 2018-2022
  • Annual Light Duty Vehicle Sales for Select Regions: 2014-2022
  • Total Vehicles in Carsharing Services by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Light Duty Electric Vehicle Motor Sales by Vehicle Type, World Markets: 2014
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Second-Life Batteries: From PEVs to Stationary Applications http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/second-life-batteries-from-pevs-to-stationary-applications http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/second-life-batteries-from-pevs-to-stationary-applications#comments Mon, 06 Jan 2014 19:21:42 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=60936 Energy StorageSmart Energy
The first lithium ion (Li-ion) battery-powered plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) were launched in 2010 with the emergence of the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan LEAF, soon to be followed by dozens of other car launches. More than 100,000 PEVs have been sold thus far, and sales volumes are rising fast. The battery packs in these vehicles [...]]]>
Energy StorageSmart Energy

The first lithium ion (Li-ion) battery-powered plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) were launched in 2010 with the emergence of the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan LEAF, soon to be followed by dozens of other car launches. More than 100,000 PEVs have been sold thus far, and sales volumes are rising fast. The battery packs in these vehicles are usually warrantied for 8 to 10 years and, after that period, most will have reduced energy storage capacity. Battery manufacturers expect that those batteries will retain 80% of the original capacity, on average.

At that point, most of the degraded batteries will be taken out of the cars. What will happen to all those used but still capable batteries? The answer lies in reusing them for stationary applications. Reusing salvaged batteries for stationary applications solves a significant problem: new batteries cost too much to allow for their profitable use on the grid. Used but still capable batteries, however, can be sold at a low price and still provide a useful function. Navigant Research forecasts that the global second-life battery business will grow from $16 million in 2014 to $3 billion in 2035.

This Navigant Research report explores the concept of utilizing batteries for second-life applications, such as stationary storage. The study examines the issues related to second-life batteries and suggests moves for stakeholders to help make the concept become a reality. Global forecasts for the availability, capacity, and revenue of these batteries, as well as their future price ceilings, extend through 2035. The report also assesses the market motivators and obstacles for the secondary use of automotive batteries.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How many batteries will be available for second-life purposes over the next 2 decades?
  • What is the expected monetary value of a used vehicle traction battery?
  • What stationary storage applications will most likely benefit from the influx of second-life batteries?
  • What will the residual value of the battery be worth when the car is salvaged?
  • How will future new battery prices affect used battery prices?
Who needs this report?
  • Energy storage project developers
  • Electric utilities
  • Automotive OEMs
  • Battery manufacturers
  • Government agencies and policymakers
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Market Update

2.1   Market Motivators for Secondary Use of Automotive Batteries

2.1.1   Sustainability

2.1.2   Lowest Cost Option

2.1.3   Liability

2.2   Obstacles to Secondary Use of Automotive Batteries

2.2.1   Low Pricing for New Batteries

2.2.2   Institutional Cultural Resistance to Used Products

2.2.3   Excessive Degradation

2.2.4   Physical Refurbishment Obstacles

2.3   Market Forecasts for Second-Life Batteries

2.3.1   Battery Supply Forecast

2.3.2   Revenue Forecast for Second-Life Batteries

3. Conclusions and Recommendations

3.1   Policymaker Recommendations

3.2   Automotive Manufacturer Recommendations

3.3   Second-Life Battery Owner Recommendations

List of Charts

  • Capacity and Revenue of Second-Life Batteries, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Energy Storage Technology Prices by Technology Type, World Markets: 2014
  • Expected Lithium Ion Cell Prices by Sub-Chemistry, World Markets: 2014, 2017, and 2020
  • Second-Life Battery Supply Nameplate Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Second-Life Battery Supply Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2014-2035
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Hybrid and Electric Trucks http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/hybrid-and-electric-trucks http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/hybrid-and-electric-trucks#comments Sat, 28 Dec 2013 00:12:48 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=60628 Smart Transportation
The hybrid and electric truck market experienced a demand surge from 2008 to 2011, even as the broader truck market foundered in the global economic downturn. This surge was due in part to government stimulus spending and in part to the launch of the plug-in hybrid and battery car market, which spurred interest in these [...]]]>
Smart Transportation

The hybrid and electric truck market experienced a demand surge from 2008 to 2011, even as the broader truck market foundered in the global economic downturn. This surge was due in part to government stimulus spending and in part to the launch of the plug-in hybrid and battery car market, which spurred interest in these technologies for other vehicle applications. As of 2013, the economic stimulus programs are winding down and hybrid and electric truck deployments have enabled fleets to gain real world experience with the technologies.

Although many fleets are interested in using these vehicles to support corporate sustainability targets, ultimately most purchasing decisions are driven by cost. Not all applications for hybrid and electric trucks provide sufficient fuel savings to offset the price premium over diesel or gasoline trucks in an acceptable timeframe. Companies thus need to focus on lowering costs and targeting only those end-user markets where the fuel savings of their technologies are optimized. Another strategy for success would be to add value beyond the vehicle drive cycle (e.g., by providing vehicle-to-grid services). Without such strategies, the market will continue to rely heavily on government subsidy programs. Navigant Research forecasts that global annual unit sales for hybrid and electric trucks – including light duty trucks used by commercial fleets and all medium and heavy duty on-road trucks – will rise from under 10,000 in 2013 to more than 100,000 in 2020.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global market for hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), and battery electric vehicle (BEV) trucks. The study provides an analysis of the market issues associated with the light duty (Class 2 equivalent), medium duty, and heavy duty vehicle segments for these technologies, as well as government policies and regulations affecting the market. Global market forecasts, broken out by vehicle segment, drivetrain, and region, extend through 2020. The report also examines the different types of end uses for each technology, elements of the hybrid and electric drive system, competing technologies, and the key players in the market.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What are the most likely end-use applications for hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), and battery electric vehicle (BEV) trucks?
  • What are the strengths and weaknesses of each technology for light, medium, and heavy duty trucks?
  • Which countries are seeing the highest adoption rates of hybrid and electric trucks?
  • How quickly will the HEV, PHEV, and BEV truck market grow in each of the world regions?
  • Who are the key OEMs and drivetrain suppliers in this market?
  • How do HEV, PHEV, and BEV trucks compare with alternative fuel trucks?
Who needs this report?
  • Truck manufacturers
  • Hybrid and electric drive system manufacturers
  • Battery manufacturers and suppliers
  • Electric vehicle charging equipment companies
  • Fleet operators
  • Government agencies and policymakers
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Market Overview

1.2  Key Market Issues

1.3  Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues

2.1  Overview

2.2  Vehicle Classifications

2.2.1   North America

2.2.2   Europe

2.2.3   Asia Pacific

2.3  Navigant Research Classifications

2.3.1   Light Duty Fleet Vehicles

2.3.2   Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks for Fleets

2.3.3   Vehicle Availability and Company Attrition

2.3.4   Vocational Applications for Trucks

2.3.4.1  Delivery Trucks

2.3.4.1.1.   Over-the-Road Tractors

2.3.4.2  Non-Delivery Work Applications

2.3.4.3  Port/Railyard Operations

2.3.5   PHEV and BEV Truck Deployments

2.3.5.1  Military Applications

2.4  Competing Technologies

2.4.1   Gasoline

2.4.2   Hydraulic Hybrids

2.4.3   Natural Gas

2.4.4   Propane

2.4.5   Biofuels

2.4.6   Fuel Cells

2.4.7   Auxiliary Power Units and Truck Stop Electrification

2.4.8   Fleet Management Systems

3. Market Drivers

3.1  Legislation and Regulations

3.1.1   North America

3.1.1.1  U.S. States

3.1.2   Canada

3.1.3   Europe

3.1.4   Asia Pacific

3.1.4.1  China

3.1.4.2  Japan

3.2  Total Cost of Ownership Benefits

3.2.1   Fuel Prices

3.2.2   Recovery of Cost Premiums

3.2.3   Maintenance Costs

3.2.4   Total Cost of Ownership Analysis

3.3  Going Green and the Influence of High-Profile Fleets

3.4  Idle Reduction

3.5  Vehicle to Grid

3.6  Assessment of the Key Drivers for Electric Drive Trucks

4. Technology Issues

4.1  Hybrid and Electric Drivetrains for Trucks

4.1.1   Parallel Hybrid Electric Design

4.1.2   Series Hybrid Electric Design

4.2  ePTO Hybrids

4.3  Plug-In Hybrid Drive

4.4  Battery Trucks

4.5  Elements of the Hybrid and Electric Drive System

4.5.1   Regenerative Braking

4.5.2   Electric Motors

4.5.3   Battery Technology

4.5.4   Ultracapacitors

4.5.5   Battery Size for Hybrid Trucks

4.5.6   Recharging Infrastructure

4.5.7   Onboard Diagnostics Systems in California

5. Key Industry Players

5.1  Original Equipment Manufacturers or Chassis Manufacturers

5.1.1   AMP Electric

5.1.2   Balqon Corporation

5.1.3   Boulder Electric Vehicle

5.1.4   Crane Carrier Company

5.1.5   Daimler AG

5.1.6   Electric Vehicles International

5.1.7   Ford Motor Co.

5.1.8   Hino Motors, Ltd.

5.1.9   Iveco

5.1.10  MAN SE

5.1.11  Navistar and International Truck and Engine Corp.

5.1.12  Nissan

5.1.13  PACCAR/Kenworth/Peterbilt/DAF

5.1.14  Smith Electric Vehicles

5.1.15  Volvo Group Global/Renault Trucks/Mack Trucks

5.1.16  ZeroTruck

5.2  Suppliers

5.2.1   Allison Transmission

5.2.2   ALTe Powertrain

5.2.3   Altec, Inc.

5.2.4   BAE Systems

5.2.5   Eaton Corp.

5.2.6   Inventev

5.2.7   Odyne Systems

5.2.8   Siemens

5.2.9   Terex Utilities

5.2.10  TM4

5.2.11  TransPower

5.2.12  UQM Technologies

5.2.13  VIA Motors

5.2.14  Wrightspeed

5.2.15  XL Hybrids

5.2.16  ZF Friedrichshafen AG

5.3  Other Entities

5.3.1   CALSTART

5.3.2   Duke Energy

5.3.3   FleetCarma

5.3.4   Pacific Gas & Electric

5.3.5   Southern California Edison

6. Market Forecasts

6.1  Global Fleet Vehicle Forecasts

6.2  Global Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid, and Battery Electric Truck Forecasts

6.2.1   Global Hybrid Truck Sales

6.2.2   Global Plug-In Hybrid Truck Sales

6.2.3   Global Battery Electric Truck Sales

6.2.4   HEV, PHEV, and BEV Truck Sales by Region

6.2.5   Global MD and HD Truck Sales by Drivetrain Type

6.3  Conclusions and Recommendations

7. Company Directory
8. Acronym and Abbreviation List
9. Table of Contents
10. Table of Charts and Figures
11. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Light, Medium, and Heavy Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Electric Drivetrain, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Average Diesel Price by Key Country, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual Light Duty Fleet Vehicle Sales (Cars and Trucks) by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • HEV, PHEV, and BEV Fleet Truck Sales by Vehicle Segment, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • HEV Fleet Truck Sales by Vehicle Segment, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • PHEV Fleet Truck Sales by Vehicle Segment, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • BEV Fleet Truck Sales by Vehicle Segment, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • HEV, BEV, and PHEV Fleet Truck Sales (All Vehicle Segments) by Region: 2013-2020
  • Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Alternative Drivetrain, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Fleet Truck Sales by Electric Drivetrain, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Federal Vehicle Weight Classifications, United States
  • Cutaway Cab and Stripped-Chassis Vehicles
  • HTUF Class 4 Parcel Drive Cycle
  • Utility Service Truck Drive Cycle
  • Cab-and-Chassis Vehicles

List of Tables

  • Vehicle Weight Classifications, European Union
  • Vehicle Weight Classifications, Navigant Research
  • Global Availability of HEV, PHEV, and BEV Light Duty Vehicle Models, Top Markets: 2014
  • Selected Hybrid Trucks Available, World Markets: 2013
  • Selected Plug-In Hybrid Trucks Available or Being Developed, World Markets: 2013
  • Selected Battery Electric Trucks Available or Being Developed, World Markets: 2013
  • Selected PHEV and BEV Trucks in Service or Pending Deployment (2,935 in Total), World Markets: 2013
  • Truck Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations, United States: Model Year 2017-2018
  • Vocational Vehicle Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations, United States: Model Year 2017
  • Hybrid Voucher Incentive Project, California: Proposed 2013-2014
  • Average New Vehicle Fuel Economy by Vehicle Type and Year, China: 2005-2030
  • Typical Truck Costs by Vehicle Part
  • Truck Total Cost of Ownership
  • Vehicle Operating Costs by System, FedEx Express: 2011
  • FleetCarma Analysis of Vehicle Savings
  • Average Gasoline Price by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Average Diesel Price by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Average Spot Price of Crude Oil, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Battery Type Comparison
  • Battery Size Used by Selected HEV, PHEV, and BEV Trucks
  • Annual Light Duty Fleet Vehicle Sales (Cars and Trucks) by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual HEV Light Duty Fleet Vehicle Sales (Cars and Trucks) by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual PHEV Light Duty Fleet Vehicle Sales (Cars and Trucks) by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual BEV Light Duty Fleet Vehicle Sales (Cars and Trucks) by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual HEV/PHEV/BEV Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual HEV/PHEV/BEV Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales as Percentage of Total Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual HEV Light Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual HEV Medium Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual HEV Heavy Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual PHEV Light Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual PHEV Medium Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual PHEV Heavy Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual BEV Light Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual BEV Medium Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual BEV Heavy Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • HEV Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales as Percentage of Total Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • PHEV Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales as Percentage of Total Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • BEV Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales as Percentage of Total Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • HEV, PHEV, and BEV Fleet Truck Sales by Vehicle Segment, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Light, Medium, and Heavy Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Electric Drivetrain, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • HEV, PHEV, and BEV Fleet Truck Sales (All Vehicle Segments) by Region: 2013-2020
  • Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Alternative Drivetrain, World Markets: 2013-2020
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48 Volt Systems for Stop-Start Vehicles and Micro Hybrids http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/48-volt-systems-for-stop-start-vehicles-and-micro-hybrids http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/48-volt-systems-for-stop-start-vehicles-and-micro-hybrids#comments Sat, 21 Dec 2013 00:20:26 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=60544 Smart Transportation
Stop-start vehicle systems are becoming popular in most regions of the world and the feature is becoming a standard fitment for a few manufacturers in some markets. The latest systems are starting to implement some of the features that were first developed for full hybrid vehicles, such as regenerative braking and electric power assistance. The [...]]]>
Smart Transportation

Stop-start vehicle systems are becoming popular in most regions of the world and the feature is becoming a standard fitment for a few manufacturers in some markets. The latest systems are starting to implement some of the features that were first developed for full hybrid vehicles, such as regenerative braking and electric power assistance. The challenge for OEMs is to get the most efficiency benefits from the smallest cost increment, and some have now concluded that the current 12V electrical system is becoming an inhibitor.

Growth in light duty 48V systems sales through the end of the current decade will be predominately in Western Europe, mainly because this region is the most aggressive in implementing fuel economy and emissions regulations. The German luxury vehicle manufacturers have collaborated to develop a 48V system that sets the foundation for more capable stop-start systems that will enable other electrification features. The latter features are expected to combine with engine downsizing and other enhancements to increase efficiency without large-scale adoption of full hybrid or plug-in electric capability. Navigant Research forecasts that total global sales for light duty vehicles with 48V electrical subsystems will reach nearly 13.5 million by 2023.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the opportunities and challenges for 48V electrical subsystems in vehicles. The study provides an examination of the reasons to move to a higher voltage for stop-start component systems, including the options for energy storage. Global forecasts are provided for light duty vehicle sales that feature 48V systems by world region through 2023. The report also provides a summary of the benefits, drivers, and market barriers for 48V systems, as well as profiles of the key market players that are promoting this technology.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • Why are 48V systems being considered for stop-start vehicles (SSVs)?
  • Which companies are pushing the adoption of 48V electrical systems?
  • What configurations of 48V systems can be expected in the future?
  • How quickly will the 48V market grow and how will it compare to and complement the SSV markets?
  • Who are the key players in the 48V technology market?
  • What are the additional benefits to expect from 48V over the current stop-start systems?
Who needs this report?
  • Vehicle manufacturers
  • Vehicle component suppliers
  • Battery manufacturers
  • Ultracapacitor manufacturers
  • Fleet managers
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Market Update

2.1   Why 48 Volts?

2.2   A Little History

2.3   The benefits of 48V Systems

2.4   Challenges

2.5   Key Players

2.5.1   The Advanced Lead-Acid Battery Consortium

2.5.2   Audi

2.5.3   BMW

2.5.4   Bosch

2.5.5   BYD

2.5.6   Continental

2.5.7   Controlled Power Technologies

2.5.8   Delphi

2.5.9   Eberspaecher

2.5.10   EIG

2.5.11   FEV

2.5.12   General Motors

2.5.13   Hella

2.5.14   Infineon Technologies

2.5.15   Johnson Controls, Inc.

2.5.16   Leyden Energy

2.5.17   PowerGenix

2.5.18   Ricardo

2.5.19   Schaeffler

2.5.20   SK Continental E-motion

2.5.21   Valeo

2.6   Industry Projects

2.6.1   LC Super Hybrid

2.6.2   ADEPT Project

2.6.3   48V Town & Country Hybrid Powertrain

3. Conclusions and Recommendations

3.1   Forecasts

3.2   Conclusions

3.3   Recommendations

List of Charts and Figures

  • 48V System Installations by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
  • Bosch’s Evolution of Electrification Features 48V Micro Hybrid
  • 48V Systems Market Penetration in Light Duty Vehicles by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
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