Solar PV Market Forecasts

Installed Capacity, System Prices, and Revenue
for Distributed and Non-Distributed Solar PV

There is no one single solar photovoltaic (PV) market. Local market conditions, retail electricity rates, incentives, and types of system all vary widely and dramatically affect the cost of a system and its applicability to a region. Following years of solar PV module oversupply and unsustainable, often artificially low pricing, 2013 is expected to be the year that the global solar PV market begins to stabilize. Market activity is shifting from Europe to Asia Pacific and, potentially, the United States as these markets reach maturity and near grid parity in terms of costs. There is also considerable opportunity in other regions, led by Chile, South Africa, and Saudi Arabia.

At the same time, solar PV is becoming a commodity. Solar PV technology costs have steadily declined, and pathways to further cost reduction are being pursued. By the end of the decade, solar PV is expected to be cost competitive with retail electricity prices without subsidies in a significant portion of the world. Navigant Research forecasts that annual revenue from solar PV installations will surpass $134 billion by 2020.

This Navigant Research report provides solar PV capacity and revenue forecasts through 2020, segmented by distributed (1 MW) systems, broken down by region and by selected countries. Policy issues and market drivers are detailed for each region, along with average prices over the forecast period. The report also includes a detailed discussion of key inflection points that will help shape the solar PV market over the next several years.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How much solar PV capacity will be installed worldwide from 2013 to 2020?
  • What percentage of the solar PV installed in each country will be distributed (<1 MW) vs. non-distributed (>1 MW)?
  • What are the region-specific installed solar PV system prices during the forecast period?
  • What impact will the expiration of the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) have on the U.S. market?
  • Will China, India, Saudi Arabia, and other countries meet their ambitious solar PV targets?
  • What is the forecast for solar PV revenue through 2020, broken down by market segment, region, and selected countries?
Who needs this report?
  • Solar PV module and component manufacturers
  • Solar PV project developers, integrators, and installers
  • Engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) firms
  • Utilities
  • Government agencies and policymakers
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Solar PV Market Overview

1.2   Market Forecasts

1.2.1   Solar PV Systems Forecast

2. Data Assumptions

2.1   Background

2.2   Solar PV Segmentation

2.3   Methodology

2.4   Policy Assumptions

2.4.1   United States

2.4.2   Europe

2.4.3   Asia Pacific

2.5   Key Inflection Points

2.5.1   Continued Price Declines

2.5.2   Inverter and Balance of System Price Declines

2.5.3   Electricity from Solar PV Reaching Grid Parity

2.5.4   Financial Incentives, Public Policies, and Trade Wars

3. Market Forecasts

3.1   Forecast Assumptions and Overview

3.2   Solar PV Forecast by Region

3.2.1   North America

3.2.2   Europe

3.2.3   Asia Pacific

3.2.4   Rest of World

3.3   Solar PV Forecast by Segment

3.3.1   Distributed Solar PV Systems

3.3.2   Non-Distributed Solar PV Systems

3.4   Conclusions and Recommendations

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List
5. Table of Contents
6. Table of Charts and Figures
7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Solar PV Cheaper than Grid Electricity in Southern Germany
  • Average Solar PV System Prices (Non-Weighted) by Region, World Markets: 2011-2020
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2011-2020
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, North America: 2011-2020
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, Europe: 2011-2020
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, Asia Pacific: 2011-2020
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Region, Rest of World: 2011-2020
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity, Leading ROW Countries: 2011-2020
  • Percentage of Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by Segment, World Markets: 2011-2020
  • Percentage of Distributed Solar PV Annual Installations by Region, World Markets: 2011-2020
  • Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2011-2020
  • Annual Non-Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2011-2020

List of Tables

  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by Country and Segment, World Markets: 2011-2020
  • Distributed Solar PV System Prices (Non-Weighted Average) by Component, World Markets: 2011-2020
  • Average Solar PV Installed Price (Non-Weighted) by Region and System Size, World Markets: 2011-2020
  • Annual Solar PV Revenue by Country, World Markets: 2011-2020
  • Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2011-2020
  • Annual Distributed Solar PV Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2011-2020
  • Annual Non-Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2011-2020
  • Annual Non-Distributed Solar PV Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2011-2020
  • Percentage Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2011-2020
  • Percentage Annual Non-Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2011-2020
  • Annual Installed Capacity, Percentage of Global Installations, and Revenue, Rest of World: 2011-2020

Report Details

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