The Future of Last-Mile Logistics

Mobility as a service (MaaS) is a disruptive concept that is evolving and threatening to change the nature of personal transportation by providing the convenience of mobility on demand at a lower cost per mile than owning a vehicle. Last-mile logistics (LML) is focused on the local delivery of food and small packages, as well as larger items such as consumer appliances. Integrated, shared fleets for MaaS offer the potential for new LML options and delivery cost savings for businesses. Automated driving vehicles are critical for the success of these service models in the long term, while drones have the potential to become a cost-effective solution for deliveries to remote locations.

The biggest challenge today for LML is congestion and parking in large cities. The development of MaaS applications offers a potential solution. In the near future, a MaaS service for a city or local region is likely to deploy a fleet of automated vehicles (ranging from single-person vehicles to minibuses) designed to move large numbers of people to work during rush hour and deliver on-demand transport during off peak hours. This type of fleet would have excess capacity available outside peak hours to perform functions like small parcel and takeout food delivery. If the fleet resource is shared effectively, operating single-purpose vehicles for delivery will no longer be necessary for many businesses.

This Navigant Research report explores the future of LML and examines how it might work together with MaaS. The study provides an analysis of the main components that enable LML services, such as shared mobility fleets, automated vehicle fleets, drones, and endpoint delivery systems. It also examines the key market players in the LML space, as well as the potential dramatic changes in vehicle manufacturing due to the new LML service models.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How will last-mile logistics (LML) work?
  • What are the main technologies for LML?
  • Which companies are the key players in the LML space?
  • What types of LML services can be enabled?
  • How does LML fit in with mobility as a service (MaaS)?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive OEMs and suppliers
  • Logistics companies
  • E-commerce companies
  • Cloud service providers
  • Cybersecurity companies
  • Drone manufacturers
  • Mobility as a service (MaaS) providers
  • Local transportation policymakers
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Market Update

2.1   Introduction

2.2   Technology

2.2.1   Connectivity

2.2.2   Logistics Software

2.2.3   Shared Mobility Fleets

2.2.4   Automated Vehicle Fleets

2.2.5   Air Drones

2.2.6   Ground Drones

2.2.7   Endpoint Delivery Systems

2.3   Market Players

2.3.1   Alphabet

2.3.2   Amazon

2.3.3   Daimler

2.3.4   Deutsche Post DHL

2.3.5   FedEx

2.3.6   Ford

2.3.7   Postmates

2.3.8   Starship Technologies

2.3.9   The Academy of Robotics

2.3.10   TRL

2.3.11   Uber

2.3.12   UPS

2.3.13   USPS

2.3.14   Workhome

2.4   Consequences for Truck OEMs

3. Conclusions and Recommendations

List of Charts and Figures

  • Last-Mile Logistics – Key Technologies
  • Total Rides, Ride Hailing Services by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • The Growth of Automated Driving Vehicles, World Markets: 2020-2035
  • The Potential Decline in Demand for MD Trucks, World Markets: 2017-2035

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