Transportation Forecast: Global Fuel Consumption

Road Transportation Sector Consumption of Gasoline, Diesel, Biofuels,
Natural Gas, Liquefied Petroleum Gas, Electricity, and Hydrogen: Global Market Forecasts, 2014-2035

Reducing the transportation sector’s dependence on oil has long been a policy goal of governments globally. The sector’s overwhelming dependence on the resource results in major costs that affect energy security, environmental security, and economic stability for nations globally. More than 1.2 billion vehicles are on the world’s roads today, with nearly 98% being powered by blends of gasoline or diesel. Governments have initiated a number of policies aimed at reducing oil consumption, including subsidizing alternative fuels and alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), biofuels mandates, and higher fuel economy requirements for new vehicles.

Markets for both vehicles and fuels have gradually begun to respond to these government programs, and alternative fuels are beginning to have an impact on global oil demand. The shape and form of road transportation alternative fuels markets vary by region, largely influenced by government regulations, local resources, infrastructure, and fuel prices. For instance, markets for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are particularly strong in Eastern Europe, Turkey, and South Korea, but relatively mute elsewhere. As such, no one alternative fuel has been pinpointed as the perfect alternative fuel solution. Navigant Research forecasts that annual energy consumption in the global road transportation sector will grow from 81.1 quadrillion Btu in 2014 to 101.7 quadrillion Btu in 2035.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global road transportation fuels market by alternative fuel and vehicle segment (light duty vehicles and medium and heavy duty vehicles). Analysis and data are provided for the following fuels: gasoline, diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, drop-in biofuels, natural gas, LPG, electricity, and hydrogen. Global market forecasts for energy, oil, and fuel consumption, segmented by country and vehicle segment, extend through 2035.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What is the overall impact of alternative fuels and alternative fuel vehicles on the global fuels supply and market?
  • What impact are advances in vehicle fuel economy having on the conventional fuels (gasoline and diesel) supply and markets?
  • What are the fastest-growing alternative fuels by region?
  • What are the major factors and variables in assessing demand for road transportation fuels?
  • What are the market drivers and challenges for each fuel type?
Who needs this report?
  • Utilities
  • Electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) providers and manufacturers
  • Oil & gas companies
  • Biofuels producers
  • Natural gas and hydrogen infrastructure developers
  • Battery suppliers
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Market Overview

1.2  Scope

1.3  Market Forecasts

2. Market Forecasts

2.1  Introduction

2.2  Methodology

2.2.1   Major Variables

   2.2.1.1  Fuel Price

   2.2.1.2  VMT

   2.2.1.3  Fuel Economy

   2.2.1.4  Biofuels Penetration

2.2.2   Conversions

2.3  Oil

2.4  Gasoline

2.5  Diesel

2.6  Biofuels

2.6.1   Ethanol

2.6.2   Biodiesel

2.6.3   Drop-In

2.7  Natural Gas

2.8  LPG

2.9  Electricity

2.10 Hydrogen

2.11 Conclusions and Recommendations

3. Acronym and Abbreviation List
4. Table of Contents
5. Table of Charts and Figures
6. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Sales Weighted Average Fuel Retail Price, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Oil Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Gasoline Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Diesel Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Biofuels Consumption by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Natural Gas Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector LPG Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Electricity Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Hydrogen Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Navigant Research Global Fuel Consumption Forecast Model

List of Tables

  • Gasoline Price by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Diesel Price by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Residential Electricity Rates by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • CNG Price by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LPG Price by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Energy Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV Energy Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV Energy Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Fuel Consumption by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Oil Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV Oil Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV Oil Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Gasoline Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV Gasoline Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV Gasoline Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Diesel Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV Diesel Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV Diesel Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Ethanol Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Biodiesel Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Drop-In Biofuels Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Natural Gas Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV Natural Gas Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV Natural Gas Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV LNG Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector LPG Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV LPG Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV LPG Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Electricity Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV Electricity Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV Electricity Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual Road Transportation Sector Hydrogen Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LDV Hydrogen Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHDV Hydrogen Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035

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