Transportation Forecast: Light Duty Vehicles

Global Forecasts for Stop-Start, Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid, Battery Electric, Fuel Cell, Natural Gas, Propane Autogas, and Conventional Internal Combustion Engine Powered Vehicle Sales and Population: 2016-2035

The emerging potential of automated driving technologies promises to disrupt the global transportation system. Theoretically, automation allows users to dramatically improve cost, time, and space efficiency. The results of such benefits are likely to encourage greater adoption of light duty vehicle (LDV) travel via highly utilized vehicles. This paradigm may make individually owned vehicles obsolete, especially in urban centers. Eventually, their removal would allow for significant changes to the urban landscape—parking demand would likely decrease and cities would be able to shape interconnected transportation systems. Meanwhile, vehicles are expected to become smaller and highly energy efficient.

Yet, the energy efficiency gain of LDVs may be lost in the transportation system. By decreasing the costs and hassle of LDV transportation through automation, the system is apt to become more dependent on it. Hence, efficient mass transit systems will probably see declines in ridership, leading to greater energy consumption. Unless automation aligns with alternative fuel vehicle (AFV) development, the end product will be more fossil fuels consumption. This eventuality is at odds with the goals of many national and local governments around the world. However, alternative fuels have the potential to be reliable replacements to gasoline and diesel.

This Navigant Research report evaluates the economics and capabilities of competing powertrain options that will feed the future transportation system. The study provides market sizing for the overall LDV market and light duty internal combustion engine, stop-start, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, fuel cell, natural gas, and propane autogas vehicles (ICEVs, SSVs, HEVs, PHEVs, BEVs, FCVs, NGVs, and PAGVs). Global forecasts for annual sales and vehicle populations are driven by scenario forecasts on battery prices, oil prices, and autonomous mobility system penetrations within the LDV fleet. Forecasts are provided by segment under conservative, base, and aggressive scenarios. Core model scenario forecasts are also provided alongside powertrain sensitivities to each scenario parameter.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • Where are the markets for various automotive powertrains and where are markets likely to emerge?
  • How will changing market conditions affect various powertrains?
  • How will changing market conditions affect vehicle populations?
  • How do automated vehicle technologies affect global markets?
  • Where will markets be most affected by automated technologies?
  • How will automated technologies likely emerge within the transportation system?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive OEMs
  • Alternative fuel infrastructure developers
  • Automotive component suppliers
  • Government agencies
  • Industry associations
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Introduction

1.2   Report Scope and Definitions

1.3   Market Forecasts

2. Methodology

2.1   Introduction

2.2   Model Overview

2.3   Major Parameters

2.3.1   Technology Competition Model

2.3.2   Purchase Costs

2.3.2.1   Powertrain Costs

2.3.2.2   Taxes and Subsidies

2.3.3   Operating Costs

2.3.4   TCO

2.3.5   Consumer Sacrifice Penalty

2.3.6   Market and Segment Share

2.3.7   AMS Penetration

2.4   Forecast Scenarios

3. Market Forecasts

3.1   LDV Sales

3.2   Gasoline and Diesel

3.2.1   ICEVs

3.2.2   SSVs

3.2.3   HEVs

3.2.4   PHEVs

3.3   Alternative Fuels

3.3.1   BEVs

3.3.2   FCVs

3.3.3   NGVs

3.3.4   PAGVs

3.4   LDV Population

3.4.1   Population by Powertrain

3.4.2   Population by Fuel

3.5   Conclusions and Recommendations

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List
5. Table of Contents
6. Table of Charts and Figures
7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • LDV Sales by Powertrain, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Battery Pack Price Range by Powertrain, World Markets: 2035
  • Sales Impact per $10 Decline in Battery Price by Powertrain, World Markets: 2035
  • Oil Price by Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Sales Impact per $1 Rise in Oil Prices by Powertrain, World Markets: 2035
  • Estimated Maintenance Cost Savings by Powertrain Relative to ICEV, World Markets: 2016
  • Passenger Car TCO by Powertrain, Base Scenario, United States, China, and Germany: 2035
  • Passenger Car TCO with Consumer Sacrifice Penalty, Base Scenario, United States: 2016-2035
  • High AMS Penetration Impact on LDV Sales by Powertrain, World Markets: 2035
  • AMS Penetration by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2035
  • LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Diesel Vehicle Sales Forecast Range and Scenarios, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • ICEV Sales Forecast Range and Scenarios, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • SSV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • SSV Sales Forecast Range and Scenarios, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • HEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • HEV Sales Forecast Range and Scenarios, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • PHEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • PHEV Sales Forecast Range and Scenarios, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • BEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • BEV Sales Forecast Range and Scenarios, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • FCV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • FCV Sales Forecast Range and Scenarios, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • NGV Sales and Conversions by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • NGV Sales and Conversions Forecast Range and Scenarios, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • PAGV Sales and Conversions by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • PAGV Sales and Conversions Forecast Range and Scenarios, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV Population by Powertrain, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV Population by Fuel, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV Population by Powertrain, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV Population by Powertrain, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV Population by Fuel, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV Population by Fuel, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Effects of Automation on Cost per Mile of Transportation Network Company Service

List of Tables

  • Estimated LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • Estimated ICEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • Estimated SSV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • Estimated HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • Estimated PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • Estimated BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • Estimated FCV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • Estimated NGV Sales and Conversions by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • Estimated PAGV Sales and Conversions by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • Battery Price Forecast by Powertrain and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Oil Price Forecast by Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Automated Mobility System Penetration as a Percentage of Vehicle Population by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV Sales Sensitivities by Parameter and Powertrain, World Markets: 2035
  • LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV Diesel Sales by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV Gasoline Sales by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • ICEV Gasoline Sales by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • SSV Sales by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • HEV Sales by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • PHEV Sales by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • BEV Sales by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • FCV Sales by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • NGV Sales and Conversions by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • PAGV Sales and Conversions by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV Population by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV Diesel Population by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV Gasoline Vehicle Population by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • ICEV Population by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • SSV Population by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • HEV Population by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • PHEV Population by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • BEV Population by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • FCV Population by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • NGV Population by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • PAGV Population by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035

{"userID":"","pageName":"Transportation Forecast: Light Duty Vehicles","path":"\/research\/transportation-forecast-light-duty-vehicles","date":"9\/24\/2017"}