Transportation Forecast: Light Duty Vehicles

Light Duty Stop-Start, Hybrid Electric, Plug-In Hybrid Electric, Battery Electric, Natural Gas, Fuel Cell, Propane Autogas, and Conventional Vehicles:
Global Market Forecasts, 2015-2035

The global light duty vehicle (LDV) market is changing rapidly on behalf of government-led initiatives to improve fuel economy and market demand for alternative transportation options and alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs). These changes are being driven primarily by the adoption of vehicles with various levels of drivetrain electrification and vehicles that run on alternative fuels entirely.

The adoption of light duty (LD) AFVs and fuel-efficient technologies varies significantly from region to region due to fuel costs and refueling infrastructure availability, as well as government support. The increased adoption of drivetrain electrification and alternative fuels are expected to have considerable impacts on the markets for LDVs, fuel infrastructure development, and energy demand. Utilities will be particularly affected by increased interest in plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) and natural gas vehicles (NGVs). Meanwhile, the development of new transportation business models for LDVs such as carsharing programs alongside increased urbanization is likely to put downward pressure on vehicle sales in the long term. According to Navigant Research, global annual LDV sales are expected to grow from 88.8 million vehicles in 2015 to 122.6 million in 2035.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global LDV market in eight segments: stop-start vehicles (SSVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), NGVs, fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), propane autogas vehicles (PAGVs) and conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Since SSV, HEV, PHEV, and ICE vehicle segmentations are either solely or partially fueled by blends of gasoline or diesel, forecasts of these segments are broken out by fuel (as well as by region). Global market forecasts for sales and the number of vehicles in use, segmented by country, drivetrain, and primary fuel, extend through 2035.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How is the global light duty vehicle (LDV) market changing due to alternative fuel technologies?
  • What are the fastest-growing regional markets for vehicles with electrified internal combustion engines (ICEs)?
  • What impacts will natural gas and plug-in electric vehicles have on the energy industry?
  • What will the global LDV fleet look like in 2035?
  • How and where will diesel vehicles be incorporated into ICE electrification?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive OEMs
  • Electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) providers and manufacturers
  • Oil & gas companies
  • Natural gas and hydrogen infrastructure developers
  • Battery suppliers
  • Utilities
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Market Overview

1.2  Scope

1.3  Market Forecasts

2. Market Forecasts   

2.1  Introduction

2.2  LDVs

2.2.1  SSVs

2.2.2  HEVs

2.3  AFVs

2.3.1  PHEVs

2.3.2  BEVs

2.3.3  NGVs

2.3.4  PAGVs

2.3.5  FCVs

2.4  Conclusions and Recommendations

3. Acronym and Abbreviation List
4. Table of Contents
5. Table of Charts and Figures
6. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • LDVs in Use by Drivetrain, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LDVs in Use by Primary Fuel, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LDV Sales by Drivetrain, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LDV Sales by Primary Fuel, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Premium and High-End Brand LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD SSV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LDV Market Share by Segment, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD NGV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD PAGV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD FCV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • AFV Sales by Vehicle Type, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LD Conventional Gasoline Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LDVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD SSVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD HEVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD PHEVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD BEVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD NGV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD FCVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD PAGVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD Conventional Vehicles in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035

List of Tables

  • LDV Production by Automaker, World Markets: 2011-2013
  • LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LDVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Premium and High-End Brand LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD SSV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD Diesel SSV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD Gasoline SSV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD SSVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD Diesel SSVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD Gasoline SSVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD Diesel HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD Gasoline HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD HEVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD Diesel HEVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD Gasoline HEVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD Diesel PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD Gasoline PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD PHEVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD Diesel PHEVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD Gasoline PHEVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD BEVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD NGV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD NGVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD PAGV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD PAGVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD FCV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD FCVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LD Conventional ICE Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LD Conventional Diesel Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LD Conventional Gasoline Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD Conventional Vehicles in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD Conventional Diesel Vehicles in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD Conventional Gasoline Vehicles in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035

Report Details

  • Pages: 21
  • Tables, Charts,
    Figures:
    61
  • Release Date: 2Q 2015

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