Transportation Forecast: Light Duty Vehicles

Light Duty Stop-Start, Hybrid Electric, Plug-In Hybrid Electric, Battery Electric, Natural Gas, Fuel Cell, and Conventional Vehicles: Global Market Forecasts, 2014-2035

Driven by rising fuel costs and environmental concerns, the global light duty vehicle (LDV) market is changing rapidly through the adoption of vehicles with various levels of drivetrain electrification and vehicles that run on alternative fuels entirely. Over 1.2 billion vehicles are on the world’s roads today, and more than 95% belong to the LDV segment. Of these vehicles, over 98% utilize a conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) powered by either gasoline or diesel.

While most governments have supported a comprehensive strategy to reduce oil dependency in the transportation sector, the depth of that support varies with each vehicle technology. Additionally, regional fuel costs and refueling infrastructure availability play a major role in consumer acceptance of alternative fuels regardless of government backing. As such, the adoption of light duty (LD) alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) and fuel efficient technologies varies from region to region. Nonetheless, the increased adoption of drivetrain electrification and alternative fuels will have considerable impacts on the markets for LDVs, fuel infrastructure development, and energy demand. Navigant Research forecasts that global annual LDV sales will grow from nearly 84.1 million vehicles in 2014 to 126.9 million in 2035.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global LDV market in seven segments: stop-start vehicles (SSVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), natural gas vehicles (NGVs), fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), and conventional ICE vehicles. Forecasts for the segments fueled by petroleum derivatives (SSVs, HEVs, PHEVs, and ICE vehicles) are broken out by region and by fuel: gasoline or diesel. Global market forecasts for sales and the number of vehicles in use, segmented by country, drivetrain, and primary fuel, extend through 2035.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How is the global light duty vehicle (LDV) market changing due to alternative fuel technologies?
  • What are the fastest-growing regional markets for vehicles with electrified internal combustion engines?
  • What impacts will natural gas and plug-in electric vehicles have on the energy industry?
  • What will the global LDV fleet look like in 2035?
  • How and where will diesel vehicles be incorporated into internal combustion engine electrification?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive OEMs
  • EV supply equipment (EVSE) providers and manufacturers
  • Oil & gas companies
  • Natural gas and hydrogen infrastructure developers
  • Battery suppliers
  • Utilities
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Market Overview

1.2  Scope

1.3  Market Forecasts

2. Market Forecasts  

2.1  Introduction

2.2  LDVs

2.2.1   SSVs

2.2.2   HEVs

2.2.3   AFVs

   2.2.3.1  PHEVs

   2.2.3.2  BEVs

   2.2.3.3  NGVs

   2.2.3.4  FCVs

2.3  Conclusions and Recommendations

3. Acronym and Abbreviation List
4. Table of Contents
5. Table of Charts and Figures
6. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • LDVs in Use by Drivetrain, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LDVs in Use by Primary Fuel, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LDV Sales by Drivetrain, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LDV Sales by Primary Fuel, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LD SSV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LD HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LDV Market Share by Segment, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LD PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LD BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LD NGV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LD FCV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual LD Conventional ICE Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LDVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD SSVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD HEVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD PHEVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD BEVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD NGVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD FCVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • LD Conventional ICE Vehicles in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035

List of Tables

  • Annual LDV Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LDVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD SSV Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD Stop-Start Diesel Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD Stop-Start Gasoline Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD SSVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD Stop-Start Diesel Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD Stop-Start Gasoline Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD HEV Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD Hybrid Electric Diesel Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD Hybrid Electric Gasoline Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD HEVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD Hybrid Electric Diesel Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD Hybrid Electric Gasoline Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD PHEV Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD Plug-In Hybrid Electric Diesel Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD Plug-In Hybrid Electric Gasoline Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD PHEVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD Plug-In Hybrid Electric Diesel Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD Plug-In Hybrid Electric Gasoline Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD BEV Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD BEVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD NGV Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD NGVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD FCV Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD FCVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD Conventional ICE Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD Conventional Diesel Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual LD Conventional Gasoline Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD Conventional Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD Conventional Diesel Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • LD Conventional Gasoline Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035

Report Details

  • Pages: 20
  • Tables, Charts,
    Figures:
    53
  • Release Date: 2Q 2014

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