Transportation Forecast: Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles

Global Forecasts of Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks and Buses
by Region and Powertrain: 2016-2035

The global medium and heavy duty vehicle (MHDV) market is changing due to rising fuel costs and environmental concerns. These issues are pushing commercial and government fleet operators to consider investments in fuel efficiency technologies and alternative fuels. Navigant Research estimates that more than 1.2 billion light, medium, and heavy duty vehicles are on the roads globally today—and less than 5% belong to the MHDV segment. Of these vehicles, over 94% utilize a conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) powered by either gasoline or diesel.

The MHDV segment represents only a small percentage of the total vehicle population. Yet, it accounts for a large portion of the total fuel and energy consumed in the road transportation sector because of the low average fuel economy and high annual mileage typical of MHDVs. Governments are examining programs to speed the adoption of alternative fuel technologies and reduce local emissions. Less expensive alternatives to petroleum-based fuels, such as natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG, also known as propane or autogas), and electricity, are beginning to make inroads. According to Navigant Research, global annual MHDV sales are expected to grow from 4.7 million vehicles in 2016 to 7.3 million in 2035.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global MHDV market by four major categories: medium duty buses, heavy duty buses, medium duty trucks, and heavy duty trucks. Each of these categories is also broken down into 10 powertrain types: conventional gasoline, gasoline hybrid, gasoline plug-in hybrid, conventional diesel, diesel hybrid, diesel plug-in hybrid, battery electric, natural gas, propane, and hydrogen fuel cells. Global market forecasts for annual sales and the number of vehicles in use, segmented by country and powertrain type, extend through 2035. The Excel databook accompanying this report also includes new options for the user to select specific data of interest, including pivot tables and dynamic tables and charts.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How quickly will the commercial vehicle market grow in terms of annual sales and vehicles in use?
  • How large are the bus and truck markets in each of the major world regions?
  • How big is the potential commercial vehicle market for each alternative fuel: electricity, hydrogen, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas?
  • Which fuels will power the global medium and heavy duty vehicle (MHDV) fleet in 2035?
  • Which regions will have strong demand for battery packs and electric motors for large vehicles?
  • Which countries will lead in implementing natural gas as a fuel for heavy vehicles?
Who needs this report?
  • Fleet managers
  • Truck and bus manufacturers
  • Battery and electric motor suppliers
  • Natural gas and hydrogen infrastructure developers
  • Utility companies
  • Electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) providers and manufacturers
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community 

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Market Overview

1.2  Scope

1.2.1  New Segmentation and Data Presentation

1.3  Market Forecasts

2. Forecast Parameters

2.1  Overall Forecast Philosophy

2.2  Market Trends

2.2.1     Fuel Cost

2.2.2     Incremental Costs

2.2.3     Government Policies and Incentives

2.2.4     Fleet Demands

3. Market Forecasts

3.1  New Data Selection Options Provided

3.2  Global Forecast

3.3  Breakdown by Vehicle Category

3.4  North America by Powertrain

3.5  Western Europe by Powertrain

3.6  Asia Pacific by Powertrain

3.7  Conclusions and Recommendations

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List
5. Table of Contents
6. Table of Charts and Figures
7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Annual MHDV Sales by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Annual MHDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, North America: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, North America: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, North America: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, North America: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Western Europe: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Western Europe: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Western Europe: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Western Europe: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Asia Pacific: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Asia Pacific: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Asia Pacific: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Asia Pacific: 2016-2035

List of Tables

  • Vehicle Category Definitions
  • Vehicle Weight by Category Definitions in Key Countries/Regions
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, United Kingdom: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Western Europe: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Western Europe: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Russia: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Eastern Europe: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Eastern Europe: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, China: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Japan: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, India: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Asia Pacific: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Asia Pacific: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Brazil: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Mexico: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Latin America: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Latin America: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Middle East & Africa: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, United States: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Canada: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, North America: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, France: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Germany: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, United Kingdom: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Western Europe: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Western Europe: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Russia: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Eastern Europe: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Eastern Europe: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, China: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Japan: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, India: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Asia Pacific: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Eastern Europe: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, China: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Japan: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, India: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Asia Pacific: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Brazil: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Mexico: 2016-2035
  • Fuel and Powertrain Category Definitions
  • List of Countries and Regions Covered in This Report
  • Annual MHDV Sales by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Annual MHDV Sales by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, United States: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, United States: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, United States: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, United States: 2016-2035
  • Total Annual Sales by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Country Pivot Table
  • Powertrain Pivot Table
  • Annual MHDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Annual MHDV Parc by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Parc by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Parc by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Parc by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Parc by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, United States: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Canada: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, North America: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, France: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Germany: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, United Kingdom: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Western Europe: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Western Europe: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Russia: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Eastern Europe: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Asia Pacific: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Asia Pacific: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Brazil: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Mexico: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Latin America: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Latin America: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Middle East & Africa: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, United States: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Canada: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, North America: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, France: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Germany: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Latin America: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Latin America: 2016-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Middle East & Africa: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, United States: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Canada: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, North America: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, France: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Germany: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, United Kingdom: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Western Europe: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Western Europe: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Russia: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Eastern Europe: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Eastern Europe: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, China: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Japan: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, India: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Asia Pacific: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Asia Pacific: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Brazil: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Mexico: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Latin America: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Latin America: 2016-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Middle East & Africa: 2016-2035

Report Details

  • Pages: 31
  • Tables, Charts,
    Figures:
    126
  • Release Date: 2Q 2016

Press Releases:

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