Transportation Forecast: Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles

Medium and Heavy Duty Hybrid Electric, Plug-In Hybrid Electric, Battery Electric, Natural Gas, Propane Autogas, Fuel Cell, and Conventional Vehicles: Global Market Forecasts, 2014-2035

The global medium and heavy duty vehicle (MHDV) market is changing rapidly, due to rising fuel costs and environmental concerns that are pushing commercial and government fleet operators to consider investments in fuel efficiency technologies and alternative fuels. Navigant Research projects that today more than 1.2 billion light, medium, and heavy duty vehicles are on roads, and less than 5% belong to the MHDV segment. Of these vehicles, over 94% utilize a conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) powered by either gasoline or diesel.

Though the MHDV segment commands a small portion of the total vehicle landscape, it consumes a far greater portion of the total fuel and energy consumed in the road transportation sector because of the low average fuel economy and high annual mileage typical of MHDVs. The MHDV markets’ dependency on oil has pushed governments to examine programs that will speed the adoption of alternative fuel technologies. Less expensive alternatives to petroleum-based fuels, such as natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG – also known as propane or autogas), and electricity, are beginning to make inroads, as fleet managers can see a return on investment in as few as 3 years given the right circumstances. Navigant Research forecasts that global annual MHDV sales and conversions will grow from 4.3 million vehicles in 2014 to 7.1 million in 2035.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global MHDV market in seven segments: conventional ICE vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), natural gas vehicles (NGVs), propane autogas vehicles (PAGVs), and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). Forecasts for two segments fueled primarily by petroleum derivatives (ICE vehicles and HEVs) are broken out by region and by fuel: gasoline or diesel. Global market forecasts for sales and conversions and the number of vehicles in use, segmented by country, drivetrain, and primary fuel, extend through 2035.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What are the markets for each alternative fuel: electricity, hydrogen, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas?
  • What are the best opportunities for alternative fuel technologies within the medium and heavy duty vehicle (MHDV) classes?
  • What impacts will natural gas, propane autogas, plug-in electric, and fuel cell vehicles have on the energy industry?
  • What will the global MHDV fleet look like in 2035?
  • How will the many end uses of commercial MHDVs present opportunities for alternatives such as liquefied natural gas?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive OEMs
  • EV supply equipment (EVSE) providers and manufacturers
  • Oil & gas companies
  • Natural gas and hydrogen infrastructure developers
  • Battery suppliers
  • Utilities
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Market Overview

1.2  Scope

1.3  Market Forecasts

2. Market Forecasts

2.1  Scope

2.2  MHDVs

2.2.1   HEVs

2.2.2   PHEVs

2.2.3   BEVs

2.2.4   NGVs

2.2.5   PAGVs

2.2.6   FCVs

2.3  Conclusions and Recommendations

3. Acronym and Abbreviation List
4. Table of Contents
5. Table of Charts and Figures
6. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • MHDVs in Use by Vehicle Drivetrain, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • MHDVs in Use by Primary Fuel, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual MHDV Sales and Conversions by Primary Fuel, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual MHDV Sales and Conversions by Vehicle Drivetrain, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual MHDV Sales and Conversions by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual MHD HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual MHD PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual MHD BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual MHD NGV Sales and Conversions by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual MHD PAGV Sales and Conversions by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual MHD FCV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • MHDVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • MHD HEVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • MHD PHEVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • MHD BEVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • MHD NGVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • MHD PAGVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • MHD FCVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual MHD Conventional ICE Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • MHD Conventional ICE Vehicles in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035

List of Tables

  • Annual MHDV Sales and Conversions by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHDVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD HEV Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD Hybrid Electric Diesel Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD Hybrid Electric Gasoline Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD HEVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD Hybrid Electric Diesel Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD Hybrid Electric Gasoline Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD PHEV Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD Plug-In Hybrid Electric Diesel Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD Plug-In Hybrid Electric Gasoline Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD PHEVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD Plug-In Hybrid Electric Diesel Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD Plug-In Hybrid Electric Gasoline Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD BEV Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD BEVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD NGV Sales and Conversions by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD CNG Vehicle Sales and Conversions by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual HD LNG Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD NGVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD CNG Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD LNG Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD PAGV Sales and Conversions by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD PAGVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD FCV Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD FCVs in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD Conventional ICE Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD Conventional Diesel Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • Annual MHD Conventional Gasoline Vehicle Sales by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD Conventional Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD Conventional Diesel Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035
  • MHD Conventional Gasoline Vehicles in Use by Country, World Markets: 2014-2035

Report Details

  • Pages: 19
  • Tables, Charts,
    Figures:
    52
  • Release Date: 2Q 2014

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