Navigant Research Blog

E-Motorcycles and E-Scooters Primed for Acceleration

— March 17, 2015

Innovative product offerings, large new market entrants, and decreasing battery prices are all contributing to an increasingly positive outlook for the electric power two-wheel vehicle industry, which includes electric scooters (e-scooters) and electric motorcycles (e-motorcycles).

An influx of new product offerings and services in these markets is expanding the product options for consumers, offering legitimate alternatives to car ownership, and appealing to new, untapped customer bases. These products and services include fold-up e-scooters, hydrogen fuel cell scooters, e-scooter sharing programs (Scoot Networks), e-scooter battery swapping networks (Gogoro), and ultra-lightweight e-motorcycles.

Warming Up

In the e-motorcycle industry, several large manufacturers traditionally focused on gasoline-powered motorcycles are entering the market and providing new capabilities. These large companies bring brand recognition, extensive dealer networks, industry credibility, and large marketing and R&D budgets. It’s difficult to convince consumers to buy unknown brands in a new market, especially at higher price points compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) motorcycles.

With Polaris Industries acquiring Brammo in early 2015, Yamaha announcing its intention to enter the market in 2016, and Harley-Davidson expected to release its LiveWire product around the 2018 timeframe, the e-motorcycle industry is poised to undergo significant growth and significantly increase consumer awareness and recognition over the coming years. Lithium ion (Li-ion) battery units that would have cost more than $1,000 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) just a few years ago can now be had for about one-third of the price, and these costs are expected to continue to decline over the coming years.

According to Navigant Research’s recently published report, Electric Motorcycles and Scooters, worldwide sales of e-motorcycles and e-scooters are expected to grow from 5.2 million units in 2015 to just under 6 million units by 2024. Due to the new and expected market entries of Polaris Industries, Yamaha, and Harley-Davidson into the North American and European markets, high-powered e-motorcycles (more than 30 kW/40 hp peak) are expected to achieve by far the largest growth of any segment in this market, growing at a compound annual rate of 35.2% between 2015 and 2024.

E-Scooter and E-Motorcycle Sales by Type, World Markets: 2015-2024

(Source: Navigant Research)

 

Islands Sail into Energy Storage

— March 3, 2015

Saddled with the highest electricity rates in the world (and threatened by climate change more than almost any other communities), many islands and isolated grids have opted to integrate wind and solar to replace expensive, imported diesel fuel. One challenge for these systems is that they do not have the benefit of calling upon neighboring systems to balance their wind and solar against load–leading to instability and insecurity of supply.

As a result, many remote grids are adjusting their technical requirements for connecting intermittent resources like wind or solar to the grid, requiring that these resources be firmed. In late 2013, for instance, Puerto Rico adjusted its technical requirements for connecting wind and solar assets to the Puerto Rican grid. This isn’t a direct requirement for energy storage specifically, but is a good fit for storage.

The Flywheel Option

Other island markets are betting on storage more directly. Aruba has committed to an aggressive plan to become 100% renewable by 2020 and has signed agreements with BYD and Temporal Power, as well as a power purchase agreement with Hydrostor in order to achieve its energy goals.

The typical applications in these markets are wind, solar, and diesel hybrids. In previous years, the most common technology for remote, isolated grid storage was advanced batteries. This was partly a function of availability and technology fit. Very few other storage technologies are modular–underground compressed air and traditional pumped storage require specific geologies–and few vendors were targeting the space. Moreover, the working assumption in terms of technology fit has been that a longer-duration storage system is more valuable than a short-duration storage system. Several flywheel vendors are disproving this assumption, however.

ABB’s Powercorp, for example, uses flywheel technology in remote microgrids, such as the BHP Billiton nickel mine in Western Australia and the Coral Bay community in Northwestern Australia. These are remote diesel-led systems.

Way Up North

Beacon Power has commissioned a demonstration project in St. Paul, Alaska, combining an existing plant, which includes a 225-kW wind turbine and 300 kW of diesel generators, with a 160-kW flywheel system. In this scenario, the flywheel system will enable the host utility to further improve wind utilization and deliver fuel savings of up to 30% over existing (pre-flywheel) consumption levels.

While it is still the case that some amount of long-duration storage is necessary in order to achieve very high renewables penetration on an isolated grid, flywheels are demonstrating that significant diesel savings can be achieved with as little as 30 minutes or less of storage.

 

Utility-Scale Energy Storage: The Next Killer App

— February 10, 2015

In recent years in the power sector, companies like C3 Energy and Space-Time Insight have been introducing groundbreaking applications that can provide powerful data and insights across the utility value chain, from the customer to the independent system operator (ISO). Looking back over the Navigant Research utility transmission and distribution technology forecasts in our syndicated reports—and our 10-year forecasts for those technologies—it’s clear that utility-scale energy storage is among the technologies undergoing the most dramatic transformations, thanks to these applications.

Since 2009, the California Energy Commission (CEC) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) have invested millions of dollars in utility-scale storage through both smart grid demonstration project funds and Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy (ARPA-E) R&D grants.

Next-Generation Investment

In December, Eos Energy Storage announced that it had won a $2 million award from the CEC to deploy and demonstrate a 1 MW grid-scale battery system at Pacific Gas and Electric’s (PG&E’s) Smart Grid Lab in San Ramon, California. The project, called Aurora, was the only advanced battery storage system recipient of grant funding.

According to Eos, its Aurora battery system “can be manufactured at a fraction of the cost of existing energy storage solutions.” The Edison, New Jersey-based company is joining with PG&E, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), distributed energy storage technology pioneer Stem, and ETM Electromatic to carry out the project.

“This type of project deployment can meet the requirements of California’s utilities and industrial users at a price that will compete with gas peaking plants, providing both peak generation and infrastructure benefits,” said Philippe Bouchard, Eos vice president of Business Development, in a statement.

Strategy for Scale

Eos’ Aurora direct current (DC) battery, power electronics from ETM, and Stem’s real-time data analytics are being implemented at PG&E’s Smart Grid Lab in San Ramon.  EPRI is managing interconnection and systems integration requirements. LBNL will employ real-time grid simulation to assess “system benefits under dynamic load and renewable integration use cases.”

The Eos Aurora 1000/4000 battery system delivers 1 MW of electrical power for 4 hours, which is more than enough to mitigate peak power demands, thus avoiding costly investments in transmission and distribution upgrades. It also offers fast-response surge capabilities that can manage the intermittency of solar, wind, and other renewable energy grid assets.

Looking further down the road, so to speak, it’s clear that energy storage will advance thanks to major investment from car makers such as Tesla, which is placing its bets with the new Gigafactory in Nevada. Large volumes of mass-produced batteries will be essential to Tesla and other electric vehicle manufacturers. And this mass production strategy for battery technology also brings increased scale that may reduce deployment costs. With clever engineering, this strategy will help expand residential and utility deployments, as well.

 

2015: A Turning Point for Batteries

— January 30, 2015

One of the biggest energy stories of 2014 was the emergence of battery-based energy storage as a reasonable option for grid management.  But the battery industry is just getting started.  This year, the energy news cycle will be led by batteries on all fronts.  This year will mark the tipping point that sees batteries become not only an accepted part of our electricity grid and transportation network, but also a key underpinning to the global economy.

Beneath these developments is a single realization that the world is beginning to accept: that high-quality advanced batteries are becoming very cheap.  As Navigant Research’s Materials for Advanced Batteries report explains, a lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery that was priced at more than $1,000 per kWh in 2009 can now be bought for a third of that.  And there is no visible end to the reductions in pricing.  This price decline is caused by three factors:

Manufacturing scale: The world’s battery factories are capable producing some 100 GWh worth of Li-ion cells this year.  While not that much will actually be made (Navigant Research expects that 2015 will see some 65 GWh of Li-ion batteries produced), the manufacturing scale is now in place to enable the enormous growth of the use of batteries that is to be expected as pricing comes down.  And the capacity is only growing with time.  When Tesla Motors and Panasonic build their GigaFactory in Nevada in 2017, global manufacturing capacity will be increased by 50%.

Manufacturing expertise: It’s been 24 years since Sony introduced the first mass-produced Li-ion battery.  It’s taken that long for manufacturers to make these products at high efficiencies and high speeds.  A typical production line can now crank out 4 times the batteries that the same machines were able to produce just 5 years ago in the same amount of time.

Supply chain maturity: The chemicals that go into Li-ion batteries used to be specialty, batch-processed chemicals.  Now that the industry is so large, they have been converted into continuously processed commodity chemicals.  This means cheaper input materials, which in turn translates into cheaper batteries.

Golden Age

Now that these three factors have conspired to result in an environment of cheaper Li-ion batteries, the industries that use those batteries will see dramatically increased demand.  Here are some key events expected in early 2015 that will help usher in this golden year for batteries:

New automotive launches: Three cars will be unveiled in early 2015 that have the potential to be enormous sales leaders.  The 2016 Chevy Volt might make the Volt become a reasonable alternative to other low-priced compacts, even in this age of cheap gas.  The Model X, Tesla’s version of a high-end crossover, has the potential to be even more popular than the launch of the Model S in 2013.  And the BMW 5-series electric vehicle (EV) could hit the sweet spot of a mid-size luxury EV.  Even if only two of these three models turns into a global success, it will mean dramatically higher EV sales in 2015.

The great California grid rush: Each of the major California utilities has now issued requests for proposals for grid energy storage systems.  Combined with the final announcement of the winners of the Hawaiian Electric Company (HECO) bid in Hawaii sometime this spring, these programs will see the most extensive purchases of grid storage systems in history.

Additionally, new products in the e-bike, e-scooter, and portable appliance markets will see dramatic growth in the thirst for batteries in those markets as well.  All told, 2015 is shaping up to be a historic year for the battery industry and for the industries that buy batteries to make their products popular.

 

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