Navigant Research Blog

Premium Auto Brands Lead the Way to 200+ Mile BEVs

— February 22, 2018

In the race to create long-range battery EVs (BEVs), premium brands are taking the lead. Navigant Research projects over 6 million BEV sales globally by 2026. Because range anxiety is a leading deterrent of consumers looking to purchase an EV, increasing the range of BEVs will be crucial to expanding the market.

Over the past few years, several premium brands have announced they would bring to market BEVs with capabilities of at least 200 miles, with many pushing that number to over 300 miles of range. Apart from Tesla’s Model S and Model X, no premium automaker has released these long-range BEVs. However, 2018 is anticipated to be the year we start to see these new models come to market.

Premium Automaker Electric Promises

The following timeline showcases the increase in announced/expected premium brand long-range BEVs:

Announced Premium Brand 200 + Mile Range BEVs

(Source: Navigant Research)

Audi and Jaguar will likely continue Tesla’s long-range trend in 2018 with the crossover style Jaguar i-Pace and Audi’s SUV e-tron Quattro. The i-Pace is expected to have a range of 220 miles, while the e-tron Quattro will have around 300 miles of range. Audi is also expected to release another all-electric SUV by 2019, along with Aston Martin’s RapidE, Mercedes Benz’s Concept EQ, Porsche’s Mission E, and the Fisker EMotion. Looking to 2020 and beyond, BMW, Tesla, Infinti, and Volvo are all anticipated to release long-range BEVs—in Tesla’s case, the revamped Roadster with 600 miles of range (and a hefty price tag).

Premium brand commitments to electrification comes in more than just the form of single vehicle announcements. Volvo, Aston Martin, and Jaguar Land Rover have announced plans to go all electric or hybrid over the next decade, with Volvo promising this lineup by 2019. In 2017, Porsche installed its first 350 kW charging station at its Berlin office. The ultrafast charger is being developed for the Mission E to allow customers to recharge quickly.

Affordable, Long-Range Vehicles Not Far Behind

More details of these long-range vehicles will be unveiled closer to the release dates, but it is already clear that premium automakers are committing to an electric future. As with many consumer markets, premium and luxury automakers are often early adopters of trends and technologies that are later picked up by economy brands.

While these premium brand long-range BEVs will have a hold of the market for the time being, economy brands like Ford and Hyundai are announcing their own long-range BEVs, which will likely have a substantially lower price tag. Some premium brands, like Tesla, have begun offering less expensive electric models to meet this demand for non-luxury long-range BEVs and to compete in both market segments. If automakers stick to their electric promises and all begin producing EVs, we will continue to reduce emissions from the transportation sector and move toward a greener, cleaner future.


Funding R&D for Improved Advanced Batteries

— June 8, 2017

The battery of the future must meet the performance standards of industry stakeholders in the motive and stationary energy storage sectors. Navigant Research anticipates the following criteria will be key in the development of new battery advancements going forward:

  • Improved safety to reduce susceptibility to overheating
  • Abundant raw materials to reduce manufacturing costs
  • Lower $/kilowatt-hour costs on energy-intensive operations of 3-plus-hour durations
  • Lower $/kilowatt costs on power-intensive operations of less than
    1 hour
  • Improved energy density (kilowatt/kilogram or kilowatt/liter)
  • Step change cycle life improvements across both stationary and motive applications

Going forward, next-generation advanced batteries will compete with commercially available, mature advanced battery technology manufactured by large, well-funded multinational conglomerates. To do so, new advanced batteries will need to deliver more kilowatt of power per kilowatt-hour of energy to meet the power and energy needs of vehicles and multiple benefit applications on the grid.

Government and Private Sector Support

To meet the performance criteria mentioned above, government and private sector support of clean energy technology development will remain a critical driver for the commercialization of these advanced batteries. For example, Mission Innovation (MI) is a consortium of 22 countries and the European Union that have agreed to accelerate global clean energy R&D by providing funding for new efforts through countrywide and statewide programs. All member nations vowed to double their R&D spending on clean energy by 2020, including the United States, China, France, and Australia. The second MI Ministerial event, which showcases innovations and debates ideas around new energy technologies, is being held in Beijing during June 2017.

National Commitments to Clean Energy

(Source: Mission Innovation)


For the US storage industry, Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) has provided dozens of energy storage companies with funding to bring their technologies to market over the past 6 plus years. With the US Department of Energy under fire through the past several months, the future of ARPA-E was unclear, leaving several companies worried. ARPA-E is back up and running and recently received a $15 million boost from this year’s congressional budget instead of being eliminated, as previously proposed by the Trump administration. It is tasked to identify and support revolutionary energy inventions and energy technology advances, which requires constant evolution of its programming focus. This is accomplished by establishing dynamic technical agendas designed to accelerate innovation in high potential areas.

Strategic Advantage

Companies currently working to commercialize new advanced battery technologies that partner with large, well-funded technology and/or manufacturing companies now moving into the energy storage sector will be at a strategic advantage. There have been several examples of this happening in the past year; L3 Technologies’ acquisition of Open Water Power (OWP) is one of the most recent. L3 is a provider of communication, electronic, and sensor systems for government and commercial technologies. Its acquisition of OWP allows L3 to further develop and utilize OWP’s high energy density undersea power generation technologies used in unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) and other maritime devices. Navigant Research anticipates that advanced battery companies that show progress toward commercialization like OWP will likely receive investment or will be acquired by large technology manufacturers.

Providing adequate funding and opportunities for companies to develop new energy storage technologies is essential to the long-term evolution of the entire energy industry. Ensuring that we have the best and brightest minds working on our toughest energy storage problems and that venture startups continue to emerge is contingent on reliable funding from both government and the private sector.


Beyond Ultra-Fast Charging: Part 2

— June 1, 2017

The potential of automated drive has produced many a report theorizing about the likely impacts of automated drive technologies on the transportation system, the built environment, and more generally, society. Navigant Research is no stranger here; however, our tack is far more conservative than some others. The basic theory most of these reports (including ours) supports is that automation adopted primarily in passenger mobility schemes will drastically reduce transportation costs and increase passenger convenience. This leads to more transportation overall with higher dependency on automated light duty vehicles, but also less use (proportionally) of alternative transportation modes (bike, bus, rail, air, etc.).

The above means that automated vehicles are likely to be highly utilized and therefore automated mobility fleet managers are likely to desire durable vehicles with limited downtime for maintenance or refueling. To be competitive for automated services, battery EVs (BEVs) would have to rely on ultra-fast charging, which would make batteries less durable. Otherwise, they would require more advanced battery systems or significant increases in battery size (to bring charge rate [kW] and battery capacity [kWh] closer to a 1:1 ratio), either of which makes them more expensive.

More Pollution Regulations Are in the Future

At the same time, cities (where automated mobility services are likely to emerge) will probably adopt regulations limiting polluting vehicles within certain geographic boundaries. If they don’t, the ultimate impact of automation is likely more fossil fuel consumption. In such an environment, plug-in hybrids (like those employed by Waymo) may have the upper hand. Alternatively, this could be an opportunity for battery swapping.

Battery swapping notably has a poor record, but many of the barriers to battery swapping as a solution for the passenger BEV market don’t apply with automated mobility fleets. Battery swapping in part failed as a global strategy because it depended on OEMs agreeing on a common battery pack. In a managed fleet with vehicles from a single OEM, this is no longer a problem.

Is Battery Swapping the Answer?

Battery swapping solves reliability concerns, as the charge rate can be managed to optimize life and the battery can be enrolled in revenue generating grid services when off the vehicle. This would also make transportation electrification’s impact on the grid gentler. Additionally, swapping is a faster solution than the fastest wired or wireless charging solution and (as Tesla showcased) faster than liquid or gaseous refueling.

The last advantage is that in fully automated services, range is not as big of an issue as it is when there is a human driver. Theoretically, battery swap packs could be built smaller and added to the vehicle in increments to satisfy certain uses. As an example, instead of having two or more 200-mile battery packs per vehicle, managers could instead employ three or more 100-mile battery packs, which would further reduce overall system costs and risk.

It will be some time before such a solution might be employed. It is a later consideration in the evolution of mobility automation business models. The priority considerations are the development of the automated drive technology itself and the regulations to permit driverless vehicles. It is likely that initial services will leverage conventional refueling and/or recharging infrastructure until reliable business models have been produced. After that development, then competition within mobility services will drive such innovations.


Beyond Ultra-Fast Charging: Part 1

— May 31, 2017

Now that the continued decline in battery prices can make battery EVs (BEVs) cheaper to drive than the competition, ultra-fast charging is viewed as the final link to making them mainstream. Given that, the automotive industry is focusing on approximating the time it takes to gas up by rolling out ultra-fast charge networks in North America and Europe.

Tesla’s success with the supercharger network supports the above assumption, but there may be flaws in the ultra-fast charging concept relating to the basics of batteries. The primary component being that charging at a power capacity (measured in kilowatts) higher than the BEV’s battery energy capacity (measured in kilowatt-hours) stresses the battery, reducing its useful capacity over time. Most of the upcoming vehicles capable of accepting an ultra-fast charge will likely have battery capacities between 30 kWh and 80 kWh, whereas upcoming ultra-fast chargers can provide 120 kW-320 kW or more, 4-10 times the battery’s energy capacity.

Reducing Side Effects of Ultra-Fast Charging

Automakers and charging networks can develop systems to diminish the cumulative effects that ultra-fast charging has on batteries (as recently evidenced by Tesla). These solutions are effectively reducing the charging rate under certain technical and ambient environment conditions, limiting the value-add of the fast charging. Such limitations haven’t yet been seriously evidenced because the fastest charging today is only operating at around 2 times the battery capacity. Most charging generally occurs at sub-1X rates.

Only when BEV owners primarily rely on fast charging over slow charging will these limitations become more common and more concerning to potential customers. This is more and more likely given the increasing range of BEVs alongside the development of the ultra-fast charging networks. The advances in BEV and charging technologies mean that BEVs will no longer be limited to single-family homeowners with a reliable charging station in the garage. Indeed, many without residential parking spaces (and therefore charging equipment) may now view the long range BEV an option so long as they can fast charge.

Such ambitions should be tempered through consumer education efforts and/or the development of more modest slow charging options in long-term parking structures. This unfortunately further complicates an already complicated pitch to the mass market. It also threatens consumer consideration of electrification or limits use of the ultra-fast chargers themselves. However, such concern is warranted to avoid negative shifts in consumer perceptions.

Overall, as long as BEVs are primarily purchased by single-family homeowners, this potential problem is probably marginal. However, for the future transportation modes dominated by automated vehicles, it is likely a non-starter.


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