Navigant Research Blog

Beyond Ultra-Fast Charging: Part 1

— May 31, 2017

Now that the continued decline in battery prices can make battery EVs (BEVs) cheaper to drive than the competition, ultra-fast charging is viewed as the final link to making them mainstream. Given that, the automotive industry is focusing on approximating the time it takes to gas up by rolling out ultra-fast charge networks in North America and Europe.

Tesla’s success with the supercharger network supports the above assumption, but there may be flaws in the ultra-fast charging concept relating to the basics of batteries. The primary component being that charging at a power capacity (measured in kilowatts) higher than the BEV’s battery energy capacity (measured in kilowatt-hours) stresses the battery, reducing its useful capacity over time. Most of the upcoming vehicles capable of accepting an ultra-fast charge will likely have battery capacities between 30 kWh and 80 kWh, whereas upcoming ultra-fast chargers can provide 120 kW-320 kW or more, 4-10 times the battery’s energy capacity.

Reducing Side Effects of Ultra-Fast Charging

Automakers and charging networks can develop systems to diminish the cumulative effects that ultra-fast charging has on batteries (as recently evidenced by Tesla). These solutions are effectively reducing the charging rate under certain technical and ambient environment conditions, limiting the value-add of the fast charging. Such limitations haven’t yet been seriously evidenced because the fastest charging today is only operating at around 2 times the battery capacity. Most charging generally occurs at sub-1X rates.

Only when BEV owners primarily rely on fast charging over slow charging will these limitations become more common and more concerning to potential customers. This is more and more likely given the increasing range of BEVs alongside the development of the ultra-fast charging networks. The advances in BEV and charging technologies mean that BEVs will no longer be limited to single-family homeowners with a reliable charging station in the garage. Indeed, many without residential parking spaces (and therefore charging equipment) may now view the long range BEV an option so long as they can fast charge.

Such ambitions should be tempered through consumer education efforts and/or the development of more modest slow charging options in long-term parking structures. This unfortunately further complicates an already complicated pitch to the mass market. It also threatens consumer consideration of electrification or limits use of the ultra-fast chargers themselves. However, such concern is warranted to avoid negative shifts in consumer perceptions.

Overall, as long as BEVs are primarily purchased by single-family homeowners, this potential problem is probably marginal. However, for the future transportation modes dominated by automated vehicles, it is likely a non-starter.

 

Materials Handling Sector Trends Upward with IoT and Automation

— May 4, 2017

As digitization and automation become mainstream, materials handling vehicles (MHVs) are evolving from passive tools to intelligent, connected pieces of the supply chain. Navigant Research believes that advanced technology options for MHVs are nascent in the materials handling industry and offer significant improvements over traditional options. As the needs of these users grow more complex, it will be important that equipment evolves as seamlessly and efficiently as possible.

The application of Internet of Things (IoT) technology is not limited to automation; it also increasingly enables data integration and using materials handling equipment as data sources. Businesses are turning to data-driven intelligence to guide decisions that improve operational efficiency and protect the bottom line. For MHVs, connected fleets and data-driven operations produce a wealth of small floor-level insights that are transformed into actionable business intelligence. Several companies recognize this and are making steps to ensure predictive analytics play a role in day-to-day operations.

IoT’s Role in Equipment Maintenance

Besides operational efficiency, IoT technology is playing an increasing role in equipment maintenance. Autonomously monitoring the condition of MHV components and generating trouble codes for service technicians can be used to detect failures and/or equipment wear before they affect the vehicle’s performance. For example, forklift manufacturer Linde is working on automating the procedure of troubleshooting fleet issues, ordering spare vehicle parts, and scheduling service engineers while simultaneously informing the customer about the order status. In turn, this makes it easier to streamline orders, identify bottlenecks, and provides transparency to customers.

Advanced Automation – Playing a Role in the Integration of Emerging Electric Powertrain Options

Communication-enabled battery data and chargers allow warehouses to:

  • Reduce or eliminate the battery room footprint by eliminating the need for bulky charging infrastructure
  • Improve forklift uptime by way of opportunity charging
  • Decrease the number of batteries and chargers onsite because of improved battery runtime

Navigant Research’s Advanced Electric Forklift Technologies in North America report states that advanced electric technologies for forklifts may have higher upfront prices. However, they can reduce operating costs with longer runtime and reduced fueling over the lifespan of the fleet.

Battery Advancements

Several battery manufacturers see increased interest in traction technologies nascent to the industry. One of the first companies to do so, Navitas Systems, recently announced it will deploy the Starlifter battery at a Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) in Pennsylvania. Navitas’ program objective is to evaluate the utility, feasibility, maintainability, and cost-effectiveness of replacing lead-acid batteries with fast-charging lithium ion (Li-ion) deep-cycle forklift batteries in DLA Distribution warehouses. The program also hopes to decrease total forklift battery costs of ownership and increase forklift operational readiness and productivity. Companies like Linde and Electrovaya also have recently announced new Li-ion options for forklift batteries as a result of the demands of current warehouse and logistics environments. Much different than the industry 20 years ago, modern warehouses have increased demand for operational efficiency, around-the-clock operations, and more advanced vehicles capable of working in cold storage climates.

Fleet managers look to operational data to improve efficiency and competitiveness. Real-time floor-level alerts are increasingly important so operators can address issues immediately. Customers also expect greater visibility into their lift truck fleet, support equipment, and ongoing asset health. In the future, vehicles will communicate with each other, decision-making will be at the user level, and batteries and charging infrastructure will combine with operator and truck data to inform fleet management across both forklift and powertrain platforms.

 

The Growing Importance of Recycling Spent Advanced Battery Materials

— April 27, 2017

Advanced batteries across all applications are proliferating the market in unfathomable numbers. Navigant Research expects advanced batteries to reach a cumulative 24.2 GW in new capacity globally by 2020—for stationary energy storage alone. As these assets have lifespans ranging from 4 to 20 years depending on the technology, the issue of what to do with these batteries when they reach the end of their usable lives is an important question that technology manufacturers, system owners, and customers must be able to answer. Second-use options are viable in some sectors, but recycling spent batteries will be a major market in the coming years. Manufacturers and governments around the world are recognizing the importance of recycling and how it translates to long-term sustainability goals.

Benefits of Recycling Batteries

Lead-acid batteries have been utilized in the market for several decades, but advances in more sophisticated technologies like lithium ion (Li-ion) and flow batteries have encroached on lead-acid market share. The spent lead-acid assets are retired and recycled in large amounts on a daily basis. An example of this is China’s announcement of doubling its lead recycling target to 2.5 million tons by 2020. China arrived at this target because the average lead-acid battery life is 4 years; batteries made in and around 2015-2016 will be available for recycling by 2020. Lead-acid battery recycling efforts are also ramping up in the United States. California lead battery manufacturers and consumers have to pay a $1 fee for each battery they make or buy following the implementation of the Lead-Acid Battery Recycling Act (AB2513). Among other recommendations, several California government officials requested adding an additional $15-$20 to each lead battery sold to help process it after its usable life.

Li-ion batteries are a bit trickier to recycle. Available in items ranging from consumer electronics to EVs, extracting the most valuable materials inside—namely, lithium and cobalt—are important to consider when reprocessing these batteries. Compounded with forward-looking lithium availability and supply chain issues, securing lithium access will be important for the industry in the future. Li-ion battery recycling is in its early stages, and there are only a handful of these plants in existence today. With few Li-ion battery chemistries available, the lack of standardization plays a role in limiting the emergence of more recycling facilities and best recycling practices for these batteries. Today, recycled lithium can be up to 5 times the cost of newly mined resources; the cost differences have limited demand for lithium recycling to date, but future price increases and new regulations can change this.

Raw material prices for advanced batteries have sporadically changed this past decade and lithium prices alone have nearly tripled. Other factors like demand in competing sectors (e.g., pharmaceuticals, construction, etc.), geopolitical relationships, and environmental concerns will also play a role in the future of battery material supply chains. Recycling advanced batteries is likely to be one of the principal methods to combat against volatile raw material prices and resource availability.

New Revenue Streams

Battery OEMs should look to partner with raw material suppliers, users, and governments to gain a strong position in their respective supply chains and increase collaboration across different sectors. Considering alternatives (e.g., second life usage), the battery recycling industry has the potential to generate significant returns. Companies that position themselves to take advantage of retiring assets will be able to access new revenue streams on top of existing businesses.

 

Overcoming Hurdles to Monetizing Value Streams from Energy Storage Systems

— August 19, 2016

GeneratorFederal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 755 requiring regional transmission organizations (RTOs) and independent system operators (ISOs) to implement a pay-for-performance structure for frequency regulation service has been instrumental in demonstrating the benefits that fast-responding resources like battery energy storage systems (BESSs) can provide to the grid. For example, since Order 755’s implementation, PJM experienced a 30% reduction in overall regulation reserve requirements as more fast-responding resources have cleared the market. However, despite the early regulation successes in PJM, storage directly connected to a distribution system (known as front-of-meter, or FTM) continues to faces uncertainty and barriers in the United States associated with rate treatment.

On another front, energy storage stakeholders now recognize that BESSs connected to the distribution system from behind the meter at a residential and/or commercial & industrial customer’s property can deliver benefits to the host, RTOs/ISOs, and utility distribution system operators. This evolution is driving the development of software and hardware platforms that can analyze, control, and optimize not only a single BESS, but also aggregated BESSs. These advances are now giving rise to energy storage assets that can recognize multiple value streams by stacking grid benefits in virtual power plants (VPPs).

Regulations and Requirements

However, regulatory eligibility and performance requirements for aggregated behind-the-meter battery energy storage assets have not caught up with these technological advances. To date, there has been limited participation by energy storage in demand response markets, and several instances demonstrate how wholesale market rules are missing opportunities for these assets to provide multiple grid benefits. For example, the CAISO Proxy Demand Resource (PDR) prohibits a VPP from providing frequency regulation, even though the systems would be technically capable of doing so. And in ISO-NE and NYISO, Northeast Power Coordinating Council rules prohibit behind-the-meter energy storage from providing spinning/synchronized reserves.

At the Energy Storage North America (ESNA) expo in October, a panel discussion will feature case studies from across the country on the challenges, feasibility, and economics of how single BESSs and VPPs can stack energy storage value streams. Don’t miss out on the conversation—register for ESNA today.

 

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