Navigant Research Blog

In the Islands, Renewable Energy Scales Up Rapidly

— July 22, 2014

Renewable energy project developers are touring islands these days, salivating at the opportunity to displace diesel-powered electricity systems that can cost as much as $1/kWh with significantly lower-cost clean power.  Prominent examples include Iceland, where, according to the country’s National Energy Authority, roughly 84% of primary energy use comes from indigenous renewable energy sources (the majority from geothermal); Hawaii, where energy costs are 10% of the state’s GDP and where the state government has set a goal of reaching 70% clean energy by 2030; and Scotland (part of a larger island), with a goal of 100% renewable energy by 2020.  Several smaller, equally interesting island electrification initiatives present great opportunities for companies looking for renewable energy deployment opportunities that are truly cost-effective for customers and developers.

These opportunities include:

  • In Equatorial Guinea, a 5 MW solar microgrid planned for Annobon, an island with 5,000 inhabitants off the west coast of Africa, is intended to supply 100% of the power for residential needs.  The project is funded by the national government with power produced at a rate 30% cheaper than diesel, the current primary fuel source.  It is scheduled for completion in 2015 and is being installed through a partnership between Princeton Power Systems, GE Power & Water, and MAECI Solar.
  • The Danish island of Samsø is the first net zero carbon island, where 34 MW of wind power generate more electricity than is consumed on the island.  Fossil fuels are still utilized, so  Samsø is not truly a 100% renewable energy island as often reported.  The project was conceived and designed as part of a 10-year process begun in 1997, following the Kyoto climate meeting in Japan.
  • The island of Tokelau, an atoll in the South Pacific, is home to 1,500 inhabitants and produces up to 150% of its electrical needs with solar PV, coconut biofuels-powered generators, and battery storage – displacing 2,000 barrels of diesel per year and $1 million in fuel costs.
  • El Hierro, the westernmost of Spain’s Canary Islands, is home to 10,000 residents.  With an innovative combination of wind power and pumped hydro acting in tandem, the island is projected to generate up to 3 times its basic energy needs.  Excess power will be used to desalinate water at the island’s three desalination plants, delivering 3 million gallons of fresh water per day.
  • The Clinton Global Initiative has a specific Diesel Replacement Program for islands, focused on deploying renewable energy projects and strategies tailored to the unique needs of its 20 island government partners.  The objective is not only to create cost-effective solutions to reduce carbon, but also to help many of these island nations reduce the often enormous debt that results from relying on imported diesel fuel for electricity.

There are many more opportunities, including Crete, Madeira, Bonaire, La Reunion, the U.S Virgin Islands, and the Philippines (7,127 islands) – which last summer set a 100% renewable energy target within 10 years.

Not all of these projects, particularly the more sophisticated ones, have gone smoothly.  The logistical challenges of island construction add to the overall cost of the projects.  The risk of extreme tropical weather events is always present, including the risk of actually being underwater if sea levels rise as anticipated.  Thus far, financing for many of these projects has come from public-private partnerships, and as I’ve written previously, the coming avalanche of adaptation funding means those avenues are expected to be around for the foreseeable future.  But given the strong economic arguments for residential systems, resorts, agriculture, and other energy-intensive applications that often rely on diesel power for electricity, onsite distributed projects often pencil out without public assistance.

 

Gasification Projects Drive Smart Waste Evolution

— June 27, 2014

As the waste industry slowly evolves toward more integrated solutions for municipal solid waste (MSW) management, increasing volumes of trash are now being handled by so-called smart technologies.  Waste-to-fuels (W2F) – a subsegment within the energy recovery market that converts MSW into finished fuels, like ethanol and jet fuel – has become especially active, with advanced gasification technologies reaching important commercial milestones.

Enerkem, a Canadian company that recently gained first-mover status with the opening of a 10 million gallon per year (MGY) waste-to-methanol plant in Edmonton last month, is the first pure-play W2F project in development to reach the commissioning stage.  The company plans to add an advanced ethanol module later this year.  In April, British Airways and U.S.-based Solena Fuels (which are jointly developing GreenSky London, a 19 MGY facility converting landfill waste into jet fuel, bionaptha, and renewable energy) announced the selection of a site to commence commercial development and commissioning by 2017.

Faced with high capital costs, both projects depend on the low cost and widespread availability of waste as a feedstock to drive initial viability and future expansion.

Landfilling

According to World Bank estimates, nearly 1.5 billion tons of MSW is generated globally each year.  This total is expanding rapidly due to urbanization and rising levels of affluence in developing economies across Asia Pacific and Africa.

While 16% of MSW generated globally is never collected in the first place, and 27% is diverted for either material or energy recovery, more than 50% is still dumped in landfills, according to Navigant Research estimates.  Although there is plenty of trash to go around for higher value applications like W2F, market development depends on tightening regulations driving landfill diversion, since landfilling is typically the lowest-cost solution in areas where waste is actively managed.

In Western Europe, and to a lesser extent, North America, where waste diversion is gaining the most traction, momentum appears to be increasingly on the side of emerging companies like Enerkem and Solena Fuels commercializing breakthrough energy recovery conversion technologies.

Smart Waste

As forecast in Navigant Research’s report, Smart Waste, annual revenue in the smart MSW technology market – of which, energy recovery is a key subsegment – is expected to more than double from $2.3 billion in 2014 to $6.4 billion in 2023.  Annual revenue from smart MSW technologies is expected to surpass conventional technologies by 2019.

Annual MSW Management Revenue by Technology Type, World Markets: 2014-2023

 

(Source: Navigant Research)

While Waste Management in North America remains an active investor in Enerkem and other early-stage companies commercializing smart MSW technologies and solutions, traditional waste haulers face a revenue decline similar to that faced by traditional electric utilities.  As more MSW is targeted as a strategic feedstock, there is less trash for waste haulers to manage, resulting in less and less revenue.

Despite this evolution, companies like Enerkem and Solena Fuels still have a long road ahead.  These companies must compete for municipal contracts – in most cases, with traditional waste haulers – often pitting the high capital cost of an advanced energy conversion facility against landfilling on one hand and relatively inexpensive fossil fuel refineries on the other.

Enerkem’s Edmonton facility is estimated to cost $7.50 per gallon of production capacity to build.  GreenSky London, which incorporates the Fischer-Tropsch gasification process to convert MSW to synthetic gas (syngas), is expected to cost more than $14.00 per gallon of production capacity.  While the initial capital cost of such facilities is expected to decline over time, both platforms will depend on multiple revenue streams to be commercially viable.

 

Lufthansa Leads Biofuels Hunt

— May 6, 2014

Lufthansa announced last month that it has teamed up with U.S.-based Gevo to research the blending of alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) fuel with conventional kerosene for use in commercial flights.  While it’s not surprising that ATJ will be on the fast track for testing and ASTM approval for use in commercial operations, Lufthansa’s support of the ATJ biojet pathway demonstrates that it’s conducting an intensive search for a viable advanced biofuels conversion pathway.

Lufthansa is among the leading airlines that have sought partnerships with emerging companies at the vanguard of biofuels innovation.  On paper, the German carrier accounts for more than 40% of the biofuels purchased by commercial airlines since 2008.  It was the first commercial carrier to operate biofuels-powered flights, launching an initiative to fly more than 1,000 commercial flights between Hamburg and Frankfurt in 2011 powered by biofuels derived from jatropha, camelina, and animal fats.

Succumbed

In some respects, Lufthansa has become the canary in the aviation biofuels coal mine.  It abandoned the Hamburg-Frankfurt route in 2011, citing difficulty finding a sufficient volume of biofuels.  The move presaged a dramatic decline from 31,000 biofuels miles flown in 2012 by commercial carriers to just 3,000 in 2013.

Commercial Airline Biofuels Miles Flown by Flight Type, World Markets: 2008-2013

 

(Source: Navigant Research)

Among the industries actively seeking alternative liquid biofuels, the aviation sector has been one of the most aggressive in pursuing its sustainability goals.  While laudable, this significantly narrows the potential feedstock pool for an industry anxious to lower operating costs, hedge against future oil price spikes, and improve its carbon footprint.  The drop-off in biofuels miles flown reflects the challenge of pairing a low-cost conversion technology with an abundant and sustainable feedstock.

At least 75% of global biofuels production today is derived from just two feedstocks: cornstarch in the United States and sugarcane in Brazil.  The remaining share is produced from other food-based feedstocks like soy, canola, palm, and coarse grains converted to first-generation ethanol and biodiesel.  Despite a relative abundance, both ethanol and biodiesel lack key performance attributes of kerosene-based jet fuel, making them nonstarters for use in jet engines.

Just two fuel pathways are approved for commercial use in the aviation industry today.  The first, FT-SPK, is a gasification and catalytic process (Fischer-Tropsch) that was put into use by the Nazis during World War II and in South Africa under apartheid.  The second, HEFA (or Bio-SPK), involves hydrotreating oils derived from oil-bearing plants, animal fats, and used cooking grease.  This latter pathway has supplied nearly 100% of the fuel burned in the nearly 600,000 miles of biofuels-fueled flights that have occurred since 2008.

A disproportionate share of the biofuels consumed by airlines during this period has been produced from used cooking grease, a feedstock typically discarded as waste.  While produced in abundance in urban areas, the relative volume of used cooking grease represents just a drop in the bucket compared to the nearly 90 billion gallons of kerosene-based jet fuel consumed annually by commercial airlines and militaries around the world.  It was never the silver bullet envisioned by the aviation industry for offsetting petroleum use.

The Search Continues

While many commercial carriers remained focused on participating in demonstration flights and establishing commercial routes, Lufthansa refocused its efforts on scouring the globe for technologies with the potential to operate at an industrial scale.

In 2012, the airline inked a deal with Australia-based Algae.Tec to build a large facility in Europe based on a modular design that uses shipping containers.  Although the algae industry remains an outlier in the crowded advanced biofuels technology landscape, along the algae frontier, Algae.Tec is an even greater outlier with a potentially game-changing platform.

Lufthansa’s recent deal with Gevo to pursue ATJ offers the airline another potential pathway to industrial-scale biojet production based on fermentation.  With the lion’s share of global biorefinery infrastructure based on fermentation platforms, Gevo is pursuing a capital-light approach based on the retrofitting of existing conventional ethanol refineries.  Assuming ASTM approval of ATJ, Navigant Research’s recent Aviation and Marine Biofuels report projects that 180 million gallons of ATJ will be produced globally by 2024.

 

Cellulosic Biofuels Not Dead

— April 4, 2014

Risk_webCellulosic biofuels have multiple advantages over conventional biofuels like ethanol and biodiesel.  Primary among the advantages is that the fuel’s feedstock is agriculture waste, which means it avoids controversial topics like the food versus fuel debate and direct or indirect land use change concerns.  Despite these advantages, hope for cellulosic biofuels has eroded because multiple companies have failed to produce the fuel at scale and a competitive price point.

The many failures forced the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to cut the annual volumetric blending requirement for cellulosic biofuels mandated by the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) to levels ranging from 6 million gallons to 9 million gallons between 2010 and 2013.  For 2014, the EPA has proposed cutting the original volume requirement for cellulosic from 1.75 billion gallons to 17 million gallons.  Additionally, KiOR, the company closest to producing cellulosic biofuels at scale, has run into financial stumbling blocks.  This situation is leading some to question whether cellulosic biofuels will ever take off.  But while the industry has certainly appeared to be on the brink, investors do still have hope, as demonstrated by Cool Planet’s successful closing of $100 million Series D financing at the end of last month.

Saving Cellulosic Biofuels One Plant at a Time

Cool Planet has often been described as similar to KiOR, as the two companies take cellulosic biomass and convert it to hydrocarbons chemically identical to petroleum-based fuels.  The two companies are, however, also “dramatically different,” as described in interview with Cool Planet’s CFO Barry Rowan.  The most significant differences are related to Cool Planet’s novel approach to production plant development, the production process, and the development of the company’s propriety biochar, CoolTerra.

Rather than focusing on one or more major production facilities, Cool Planet will develop numerous small-scale (10 million gallons per year) plants.  This approach has multiple advantages.  First, it reduces risk to investors, as each small capacity plant is significantly less costly than one giant facility.  Second, the development costs of each new plant are reduced and production margins improved since Cool Planet is able to innovate on lessons learned from past plant developments.  Third, it allows Cool Planet to bring the plant to the biomass rather than the biomass to the plant.  This reduces the transport costs for the cellulosic biomass and insulates Cool Planet against feedstock shortages.  Rowan notes that the capacity of each plant is limited to a fraction of a region’s cellulosic resources.

Cool Planet can use a variety of cellulosic feedstocks, which the company exposes to high temperature and pressure to create a biovapor.  The biovapor is then converted to a high octane gasoline blend stock.  In contrast, KiOR’s process produces a biocrude oil, which is then refined into gasoline and diesel products.  When put through a proprietary catalytic column, the biovapor created by Cool Planet’s process produces the biofuels and a residual biochar – both of which have markets.

The biochar produced from the biofuels development is then treated by Cool Planet to create the company’s proprietary product, CoolTerra.  According to the company, which has five PhDs working on this product, trial results show improved crop yields and growth rates, as well as reduced water and fertilizer input requirements.  The resulting impact is a fuel that is carbon-negative; any carbon produced is sequestered in the CoolTerra, which will be used to produce carbon-absorbing plants and thus reduce atmospheric carbon concentrations.

Development of Cool Planet’s first 10 million gallon facility located in the Port of Alexandria, Louisiana is underway; the plant should be operating by 2015.  The development of two other plants in Louisiana is scheduled to follow in 2015 and 2016.  Rowan estimates Cool Planet can be profitable at oil prices of $50 per barrel, well below today’s rate.  Real world tests of Cool Planet’s business model will demonstrate its viability.  If anything can be gleaned from the recent struggles and successes of KiOR and Cool Planet, it’s that the industry is not dead; rather, it is simply taking longer to adapt to technological and logistical problems than expected.  And it’s clear investors believe Cool Planet may have a winning approach.

 

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