Navigant Research Blog

Take Control of Your Future, Part I: Megatrends in the Utilities Industry

— April 29, 2016

Energy CloudThe pace and impact of change in the utilities industry is unrelenting. Each of the following megatrends is changing the way we produce and use power globally. Together, these megatrends are revolutionizing the industry.

  1. Increasing customer demands: More customers want to control their electricity usage and spend, as well as when and what type of power they buy. Customers want the ability to self-generate and sell that power back to the grid. Amazon, Apple, Cisco, Google, Honda, Walmart, and many other large energy buyers have increased their focus on sustainable energy solutions. This trend, in turn, is forcing new power purchase agreements with the incumbent utilities in order to minimize their risk of losing significant load. For example, a second (Google was the first) major technology company, Cisco, has confirmed that it is using Duke Energy’s Green Source Rider to provide clean energy for its North Carolina operations.
  2. Rising number of carbon emissions reduction policies and regulations: The impact of COP21 will be significant. Navigant believes that the “hold” on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is temporary, and state governments and utilities are not waiting. They are taking actions now to be compliant. In fact, sustainability objectives between government, policymakers, utilities, and their customers are much more closely aligned than ever before.
  3. Shifting power-generating sources: U.S. electric-generating facilities expect to add more than 26 GW of utility-scale generating capacity to the power grid during 2016. Most of these additions will come from three resources: solar (9.5 GW), natural gas (8.0 GW), and wind (6.8 GW), which together make up 93% of the expected total additions. Existing assets (coal, but also nuclear) are devaluing and are at risk of becoming stranded as source shifting continues and newer natural gas and renewable generation sources come online.
  4. Delivering shareholder value through mergers and acquisitions (M&A): New industry ventures and M&A are happening at a rapid pace. Exelon’s acquisition of Pepco, Southern Company acquiring SoCoGas, Duke acquiring Piedmont Gas, Emera acquiring TECO, etc. In search for shareholder value through scale and increased synergies, this is a path that utilities will continue to explore.
  5. Regionalizing of energy resources (interstate, north-south, global): In order to provide reliable and affordable power, more energy resources are being regionalized. For example, PacifiCorp and Puget Sound Energy (PSE) and, later this year, NV Energy is joining California ISO. One of the main drivers is to achieve the benefits to manage local differences with regard to renewables, wind, and solar. Another example is Florida Power & Light’s (FPL’s) investment in natural gas exploration and production companies in Oklahoma and gas transmission pipelines to secure fuels for its natural gas combined cycle plants in Florida. Meanwhile, the global availability and movement of natural gas has created an abundance of natural gas. Some of the world’s biggest entrants into the growing global gas market have considered investing in power plants and other big projects now that their multibillion-dollar exporter terminals are about to open, executives said at the Columbia Global Energy Summit on April 27.
  6. Merging industries and new entrants: Several industries, including utilities, oil and gas (O&G), technology, manufacturers, OEMs, etc., are merging around areas like renewables, distributed energy resources (DER), energy management, smarter cities, and transportation. Navigant sees many cross-industry movements, and one of them is increased crossover investments between the electric utility and O&G industries. We see utilities investing in natural gas assets. And we see oil companies making investments in utilities. We also see both making investments in new areas of opportunity, like renewables, DER (distributed generation, energy efficiency, demand response, energy efficiency, etc.), transportation, smart infrastructure and cities, and energy management. That’s why the announcement in April by French supermajor Total is not a surprise to me. Total announced the creation of a Gas, Renewables and Power division, which it said will help drive its ambition to become a top renewables and electricity trading player within 20 years. According to a statement by the supermajor, “Gas, Renewables and Power will spearhead Total’s ambitions in the electricity value chain by expanding in gas midstream and downstream, renewable energies and energy efficiency.”
  7. The emerging Energy Cloud: Old infrastructure is being replaced and geared toward an increasingly decentralized and smarter power grid architecture known as the Energy Cloud. The Energy Cloud is an emerging platform of two-way power flows and intelligent grid architecture expected to ultimately deliver higher quality power. While this shift poses significant risks to incumbent power utilities, it also offers major opportunities in a market that is becoming more open, competitive, and innovative. Fueled by steady increases in DER, this shift will affect policy and regulation, business models, and the way the grid is operated in every single region of the world.

These megatrends cannot be underestimated. They are accelerating transformation in the energy industry, enabling the entry of new players, putting pressure on incumbent players, and altering traditional strategies and business models. Organizations will need to adapt, and there will be winners and losers as this transformation takes shape. My advice to senior leadership of energy companies is to take an integrated, holistic view of the opportunities and challenges that are flowing from these megatrends. Only then will you be able understand the full impacts and path forward. And that is the only way you can really take control of your future.

This post is the first in a series in which I will discuss each of the megatrends and the impacts (“so what?”) in more detail. Stay tuned.

Learn more about our clients, projects, solution offerings, and team at Navigant Energy Practice Overview.

 

Smog Settles on Beijing as World Leaders Gather for Paris Summit

— December 8, 2015

As we enter the second week of the 2015 United Nations (UN) Climate Change Conference in Paris, nearly 150 world leaders representing 195 countries have called for action on the issue of climate change. French president Francois Hollande told the delegates of the conference that “the stakes of an international meeting [have never] been higher” and the fate of the world depends on the Paris climate deal; Prince Charles of Britain told fellow delegates that climate change is the world’s greatest threat and leaders must act now; and the UN climate chief, Christiana Figueres, said “never before has a responsibility so great been in the hands of so few.” While this responsibility technically lies in the hands of 150 world leaders, many experts and think tanks have argued that China and the United States play a leading role and will be the keys to success for the summit and in mitigating climate change.

The two countries bring to the Paris summit a joint presidential statement, which was made in Beijing in November 2014. The statement emphasizes the presidents’ commitment to targets reducing their respective nations’ carbon emissions. Essentially, the United States brings to the table the Clean Power Plan, which is currently taking heat on the domestic front, and China brings the world’s soon-to-be largest cap and trade program, a pledge to have carbon emissions peak around 2030, and a $3.1 billion contribution to help developing countries fight climate change. Chinese President Xi Jinping stated at the summit that the Paris agreement should chart a course for green development, put effective control on greenhouse gases, and excite global efforts to cut emissions. He also stated that addressing climate change should not impair countries’ ability to develop.

However, these statements come at a time when President Xi’s domestic environment is in dire circumstances. On December 8, Beijing issued the city’s first ever red alert pertaining to smog levels. The red alert is the highest possible alert and results in the city effectively shutting down, meaning closed schools, halted outdoor construction, and cars with odd and even numbered license plates banned from driving on alternate days. The order will last from 7:00 a.m. local time Tuesday to 12:00 p.m. local time Thursday, when a cold front is expected to push the smog away from the city. The poisonous smog over Beijing covers an area of North China the size of Spain; it’s caused by burning coal for industry and heating and dust from construction and exacerbated by low wind and high humidity. Air pollution monitors in the capital showed that areas of Beijing had more than 256 micrograms per cubic meter of poisonous particles, a number much higher than the World Health Organization’s unsafe level of 25 or more.

Smog in Beijing, December 1st and December 2nd

Paige Smog Blog(Source: British Broadcasting Corporation)

Perhaps President Xi’s attendance at the Paris Climate Change summit comes at a time when the country needs it most. Though a strong global agreement on climate change from the Paris summit, as well as President Xi’s efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases and develop more sustainability, will not immediately solve China’s air pollution issues, these efforts are a step in the right direction. China’s goals and participation in the Paris summit could play a major role in not only solving the country’s air pollution issues in the long term, but also in helping to mitigate global climate change.

 

Buildings and Climate Change

— November 6, 2015

Telescopers_webAccording to the United Nations (UN) Environment Programme, the buildings sector is estimated to be worth 10% of global gross domestic product (GDP), or roughly $7.5 trillion. Currently, buildings consume about 40% of global energy, 25% of global water, and 60% of global electricity. Buildings also emit more than 30% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Under the business-as-usual projection accompanied by rapid urbanization, emissions caused by the buildings sector may more than double by 2050.

However, the buildings sector has among some of the most cost-effective and proven solutions for reducing energy consumption and GHG emissions. There are commercially available technologies that can reduce energy demand in buildings by 30% to 80%. Investment in building energy efficiency will lead to significant savings that will help offset incremental costs, providing a quick return on investment. Also, because existing buildings perform far below efficiency potentials in general, there are enormous opportunities for reducing energy consumption. Meanwhile, due to population growth and increasing urbanization, a new construction market is growing in developing countries, where construction activities account for up to 40% of GDP and provide opportunities for adopting energy efficient technologies.

UN Buildings Day

The buildings sector can play a critical role in mitigating climate change by reducing energy consumption and GHG emissions. Consequently, for the first time in the history of climate negotiations, a Buildings Day will be held on December 3, 2015 at the COP21 UN conference on climate change in Paris. This meeting is a mandate from the Lima-Paris Action Agenda of 2014, and it aims to discuss ways to limit global warming to a maximum of 1.5°C to 2°C. The Buildings Day at COP21 will showcase actions already taken by the buildings industry and will serve as an opportunity to encourage communications, collaboration, and implementation among various stakeholders.

In addition, a Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction consisting of governments, companies, financial institutions, organizations, academia, associations, professionals, and user networks will officially launch on that day. By putting the buildings and construction sector on the below 2°C path, the alliance commits to helping countries realize their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, which are essential drivers for achieving the ambitious global climate goal.

 

Australia Picks Up the Smart City Challenge

— October 26, 2015

Recent U.S. government support for smart cities research and the announcement of the selected cities for the Indian smart city program are just two signs of the continuing momentum behind urban innovation across the globe. Such developments only increase the pressure on other national governments and city leaders to clarify their own programs and ambitions around urban development. Australia is a good example of how that pressure is hard to avoid.

Despite being one of the most urbanized countries in the world, with around 90% of the population living in urban areas, Australian cities have played a relatively subdued role in the development of smart city ideas. However, there have been a few high spots. The Smart Grid, Smart City project in Newcastle is one notable smart grid pilot attracting global attention, but despite positive results, the follow-up has been limited. Sydney and Melbourne have also been leaders in promoting building energy reporting and energy efficiency, and a number of cities also have sustainability goals, such as the Sustainable Sydney 2030 program. However, there has been little in the way of a significant focus on the issues of urban innovation and sustainability. A recent report from the Australian Council of Learned Academies, for example, highlights the need for Australian cities to put much greater emphasis on clean and efficient mobility solutions if they are to sustain their growth and citizen expectations.

Waking Up to the Challenges

That report is among a number of signs that Australian cities and the Australian federal government are waking up to the challenges presented by globalization and climate change, as well as the opportunities offered by new forms of urban innovation. Adelaide, for example, has launched a number of initiatives including the creation of an Internet of Things (IoT) hub in association with Cisco. Melbourne has recently created a new post of Chief Digital Officer to lead its Smart City Office and has also presented its plans to become a smart city to a committee of the Australian parliament. The federal government is also taking cities more seriously. The new prime minister appointed the first Minister for Cities and the Built Environment in September, reversing the lack of focus on urban development issues shown by the current government so far.

Despite the environmental goals set by some Australian cities, the country’s record on emissions reductions remains poor compared to other developed economies.  Australia has one of the worst records for per capita climate emissions, on a par with the United States. However, whereas the United States has been making reductions in recent years, Australia has done little to mitigate its emissions. The rejection of a number of clean and efficient energy programs by the previous prime minister has not improved the situation. Australian cities have the opportunity to pick up the baton and show there is a better way forward.

 

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