Navigant Research Blog

Crunching the Data for Urban Mobility

— March 3, 2015

One of the hottest areas of urban innovation is mobility. Cities are grappling with ways to reduce congestion and vehicle emissions while enhancing the transport options for citizens. Infrastructure improvements are, of course, critical to this strategy in the form of new mass transit systems, the deployment of EV charging networks, or the creation of bicycle sharing schemes, for example.

However, a less expensive but critical piece of the puzzle is the delivery of better information so residents and visitors can make the right choices about their journey options and to enable the better management of the existing road and transport systems. As a consequence, a host of new players are entering the market to deliver services to both travelers and cities.

X-Ray Specs

Urban Engines is one of the most notable new players. Formed by a group of former Google employees, it developed its first advanced analytics solutions were aimed at city operators for improved management of transit systems. The company has now launched its first app for travelers, which provides transit options and map data across seven U.S. cities. In addition, an augmented reality overlay called X-ray mode maps transit information against a real-time image of current surroundings provided on a phone camera. Urban Engines not only uses spatial analytics to provide journey planning, but also wants to use behavioral economics to help cities incentivize citizens on the most efficient forms of travel.

Urban Engines does not have this market to itself, of course. CityMapper, for example, has been building its portfolio of city travel apps for a number of years and currently covers 12 cities in North America and Europe, plus Mexico City and Tokyo. It provides analysis of alternative options for user spanning walk routes, cycle routes, public transit, and taxis.

The Next Wave

Journey-planning applications are just one aspect of the changing landscape for transportation and travel data in cities. A new wave of start-ups is trying to expand the range of data that can be captured on city activities in order to provide new services and insights into movement across urban spaces. Some notable examples:

  • Veniam, founded in Porto, Portugal, provides networking technology that turns vehicles and infrastructure into Wi-Fi hotspots. By adding its networking technology to vehicles, it hopes to create a massive network that will generate a vast new range of data on the city as well as enhancing the communication capabilities for people and things.
  • Placemeter, a New York-based start-up, is paying people to use their old smartphones to monitor their neighborhood for people and traffic. This anonymized data can then be used to inform people or businesses about current conditions (for example, traffic levels or queues for restaurants), as well as for analysis about general trends in activity in the area.
  • TravelAI, a U.K. startup, has developed software to exploit crowd-sourced smartphone data to develop new levels of insight into travel patterns and mobility options for cities and citizens.

Of course, cities also have data from their existing traffic management systems, transit information systems, and bike-sharing schemes. And to this picture, we can add the recent announcement that Uber has agreed to share its journey data with cities, starting with Boston. These rich seams of data are increasingly available for cities and entrepreneurs to develop new services and new tools for urban mobility management. The data gold rush for urban mobility has just begun.

 

Chevy Bolt Could Break Open the EV Market

— February 27, 2015

With GM’s announcement at the Chicago Auto Show that the Chevrolet Bolt battery electric vehicle (BEV) design concept would go into production, one of the biggest surprises of January’s North American International Auto Show became a reality just 1 month later. Although GM officials declined to comment on specific production timing, it’s now certain that the Bolt will be the automaker’s next BEV.

What makes the Bolt so important to GM and the auto industry as a whole is the targeted specification and price point. GM CEO Mary Barra quoted an electric driving range of at least 200 miles for the Bolt and a price of $30,000 after federal tax incentives. According to Navigant Research’s report, Automotive Fuel Efficiency Technologies, non-gasoline and diesel vehicles (including BEVs) are expected to account for less than 4% of light duty vehicle sales in 2024. If GM can execute on its goals, this car could break the market open and become a truly mainstream-acceptable BEV, with a price tag right in the heart of the market and battery capacity that should alleviate virtually all range anxiety.

Room for Five

According to KBB.com, at the end of 2014, the average transaction price of new vehicles in the United States reached $34,367. Recent media reports have indicated that production of the Bolt could start at GM’s Orion assembly plant north of Detroit by the end of 2016 or early 2017. By that time, the Bolt’s projected $38,000 sticker price won’t be much more than the average. Combined with the low operating costs of a BEV, that makes the Bolt a very attractive consumer financial package.

Another potentially critical argument in favor of the Bolt is its form factor. In recent years, American consumers have increasingly been migrating away from cars to crossover utility vehicles (CUV), particularly compact and midsize models such as the Chevrolet Equinox, Honda CR-V, and Ford Escape. With its taller CUV-style body and underfloor battery pack, the Bolt concept appears to offer ample room for five people—something that cannot be legitimately claimed for the Volt.

Rival Rides

The second-generation Nissan LEAF and the Tesla Model 3 are likely to be the primary competitors to the Bolt. With more than 150,000 sales to date, the LEAF is the best-selling plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) of all time. A new model is expected in 2016 with a projected range of about 150 miles. Meanwhile, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has promised the Model 3 by 2017 with a price of $35,000 before incentives and a 200-mile range. But the company’s new $5 billion Gigafactory battery plant, which will supply the Model 3, is not scheduled for completion until the end of 2017. It seems unlikely that the new car will arrive much before then. Tesla also has a history of mixing and matching numbers, claiming range specifications for high-end models along with entry-level prices. The $35,000 Model 3 is likely to deliver significantly less than the 200-mile range claimed by Musk.

GM has a major opportunity with the Bolt to make an impact in the EV market that the Volt has so far failed to achieve. Navigant Research will be watching the development of this car very closely over the next several years.

 

Oil Price Retreat Could Spur Government Action

— February 24, 2015

Although the oil market has been historically volatile, the circumstances of the latest price dive suggest that low oil prices may be the new norm. If that’s the case, it could negatively affect both oil companies and the markets for clean transportation technologies like alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs).

Because of U.S. and some state government policies that mandate automakers produce more fuel-efficient vehicles and/or AFVs, low oil prices mean that it’s more expensive for automakers to improve fuel efficiency and produce AFVs to make these vehicles competitive with less fuel-efficient, and less costly, conventional vehicles. If they don’t absorb these costs, they’ll likely wind up paying penalties for being out of compliance with fuel efficiency standards and AFV mandates.

Raise the Tax

Federal and state government subsidies and incentives for AFVs provide some insulation from these costs. Yet, these policies were designed in an environment where oil prices were 30%–50% higher than they currently are. More recently, two policies have been proposed that would be beneficial to automakers seeking to comply with stringent fuel efficiency standards and AFV mandates. The first is an increase in the gas tax; the second, an increase to the U.S. federal incentive for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) and the inclusion of natural gas-powered vehicles in that incentive.

The federal gas tax is currently 18.4 cents per gallon of gasoline and 24.4 cents per gallon of diesel. The tax, which has not been increased since 1993, is used to fund the repair and update of U.S. roads through the federal Highway Trust Fund. In recent years, the fund has been on the brink of insolvency but kept afloat by stopgap measures that provide money from the U.S. general fund. The current proposal, which would increase the tax by 5 cents per gallon over the next 3 years, would provide $210 billion over the next 10 years. The following chart shows the effect the proposal would have on the average U.S. price of gasoline over the next 10 years if oil prices rise to $90/barrel by 2025.

Gas Prices Under Increased Tax Proposal, United States: 2002-2025

(Sources: Navigant Research, U.S. Energy Information Administration)

Getting Flexible

The federal incentive for PEVs currently maxes out at $7,500 per vehicle and is accessed by the PEV owner when they file taxes for the year they bought their PEV. Of note, a PEV owner has to accrue at least $7,500 of taxable income to receive the max incentive. The White House has proposed to increase the incentive to $10,000 per vehicle, provide it as a point-of-sale rebate, and include natural gas-powered vehicles as eligible. The point-of-sale rebate would enable AFV buyers to incorporate the incentive into monthly payments upon purchase and receive the full incentive irrespective of their income.

The effect of both policies would make AFVs more competitive with conventional vehicles on an energy cost basis and open AFVs up to a larger, lower-income market, making it much easier for automakers to comply with federal and state fuel efficiency programs. This is not the first time these policies have been proposed, and it’s likely they’ll meet similar fates as their predecessors. However, low oil prices do introduce a new dynamic that may provide some flexibility in Congress, as well as increased pressure from interest groups that may create the necessary support.

 

Finding a Pathway to Profit for EV Charging

— February 24, 2015

The question of whether it’s possible to make a profit from a public charging station continues to hang over the electric vehicle (EV) charging industry. The challenges are threefold:

  • The costs of the EV charger and installation, which remain fairly high.
  • The utilization rate; i.e., how many plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are actually using the chargers each day.
  • The question of what PEV drivers are willing to pay for the charging.

Level 2 charging is still the most widespread type of installation deployed in public charging, and a back-of-the-envelope payback model shows that it is possible to receive a reasonable return on investment (ROI) for a Level 2 charger with high utilization and the right price point. A networked Level 2 charger with two plugs typically costs around $5,000–$6,500. Installation costs vary significantly, but can easily double the upfront investment by the site host. Operating costs are actually quite low. The electricity used is not a major cost factor, even at a relatively high cost of $0.13 per kWh (as in California, for instance). Typically, the site host will pay monthly services fees to a network operator. In some cases, it will share revenue with the operator, as well.

Just in Case

It’s important to note that there are only so many hours in the day that a public charger is going to be both accessible and likely to be used. If a dual public charger can reach utilization of around 10 charging sessions per day, and charge $2 per session, the host could make back the initial investment in 5 to 6 years.

This picture is a little rosier than the reality today, simply because the current rate of usage of public chargers is nowhere near 10 charging sessions daily. Nevertheless, this simple ROI model demonstrates that there is a pathway to profit for offering public charging services. However, there is a real question as to how many drivers will be willing to pay $2 for around 20 miles of charge, which is what a typical battery electric vehicle (BEV) driver may get from a single charging session. Given that this should cost them less than a dollar when they charge at home, it’s not clear that Level 2 public charging will ever be much more than a just-in-case opportunity for drivers. This will be even more accurate as we see affordable, longer range BEVs come on the market, since the need to top up during the day will be lessened.

Keeping It Free

These economics are one reason why many businesses will continue to offer public charging as a free service, figuring that there’s more benefit from using the chargers to attract customers, and keep them shopping longer, than to collect charging fees. It’s also why public charging manufacturers are offering leasing or no money down, no interest financing to keep the upfront cost from being so daunting.

According to Navigant Research’s new report, Electric Vehicle Charging Services, global revenue from EV charging services is expected to grow from $81.1 million annually in 2014 to $2.9 billion by 2023.

Annual Revenue from EVSE Charging Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023

 EV Charging Services chart

(Source: Navigant Research)

EV charging is a promising new, multibillion-dollar business sector. These forecasts include revenue from DC charging, which is likely to be a more lucrative segment than Level 2. But our scenario also assumes that some public charging will remain as a free perk, rather than as a direct revenue generator, given the questions that linger about drivers’ willingness to pay for top-up Level 2 charging.

 

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