Navigant Research Blog

Detroit Auto Show Stars Fund Future Promised at CES

— January 18, 2018

For many of us that keep tabs on the automotive industry for a living, the first 2 weeks of January are among the most grueling of the year. The North American International Auto Show in Detroit has kicked off the year for several decades. And in the past 10 years, International CES in Las Vegas has become an increasingly important addition to our schedule as the two events run back to back. The announcements at 2018’s shows illustrated some of the crucial interconnections between the growth of technology and the transportation business.

For automakers, CES has largely been a place where they talk about future technologies and try to shift the media’s perception of them from being old-fashioned metal benders to forward-thinking visionaries. They rarely show actual new products, instead focusing on automated and connected concept vehicles. The Detroit show, like most other auto shows, targets consumers that are buying vehicles in the coming year.

For an industry that is facing the biggest transformation in more than 100 years, this is a crucial time. While many recent auto shows have highlighted new plug-in and hybrid vehicles, there were almost none in Detroit this year. Instead, the biggest announcements came from the Detroit-area manufacturers, and they were all pickup trucks—mostly full-size. Fiat Chrysler unveiled the redesigned 2019 Ram 1500. Chevrolet brought out a new from the ground up Silverado, and Ford launched a diesel version of the F-150 and a midsize Ranger pickup.

Profit in Pickups

Pickups are a segment that is likely to be among the last to gain highly automated driving capabilities, as discussed in Navigant Research’s Market Data: Automated Driving Vehicles forecast and its Leaderboard reports. However, those automation technologies were a major topic of conversation in Las Vegas, particularly in the context of whether manufacturers will build new business models around these costly, complicated, support-intensive vehicles.

That’s why pickups are so important to Detroit. They are the profit engines that keep this industry humming along while indirectly funding R&D efforts that will create the next big things. Part of why Ford is bringing the Ranger back to North America is that the average selling price of an F-150 is now more than $58,000. Pickups and large SUVs generate far more profit per vehicle than any small car and they sell in far larger volumes than any other segment in the American market. Ford is projected to make a full-year 2017 profit of more than $9 billion, largely thanks to sales of nearly 900,000 F-series trucks. Even the third place Fiat Chrysler sold more than 500,000 Ram pickups in 2017.

All three manufacturers are adopting fuel efficiency technologies such as 48 V mild-hybrids, dynamic cylinder deactivation, diesel and active aerodynamics in order to meet fuel economy requirements, as discussed in Navigant Research’s Automotive Fuel Efficiency Strategies report. However, until they all figure out how to make sustainable profits in the new age of mobility, we can rest assured that they will continue pressing ahead with enhancing the customer appeal of these trucks in order to keep the cash flowing to develop the promises made at CES.

 

Monetizing Energy Efficiency: Creating Additional Value Streams for Your Customers

— December 8, 2017

Much is transforming the global energy landscape these days. Building technologies are progressing from single point solutions to system and platform-based solutions utilizing the latest in smart digital technologies and the Internet of Things. Utilities are reshaping entire business models and strategies to integrate and enable a swiftly growing and diverse stock of distributed energy resources. These are just two of the more visible market evolutions. But as with most industry transformations, change does not happen all at once.

Large groups of buildings (of all sizes) lie along the continuum of advancement with regard to building technologies. Most organizations realize the potential benefits of energy efficiency; however, there are still hurdles that could prevent these types of projects from moving forward. According to a recent Navigant Research report, Energy Efficient Buildings Global Outlook, these hurdles include confusion about which technologies to adopt, what internal resources would be required to manage an advanced building, and how to best understand and calculate payback and ROI to get a project approved.

On the supply side, utilities are also realizing the benefits of making the buildings in their service territories more efficient. Utilities must be concerned with their conglomeration of generation assets to ensure a reliable future energy supply. Energy efficiency and demand-side management (DSM) are two ways that utilities manage this critical task. In fact, at less than 3 cents/kWh, energy efficiency is the most cost-effective source of energy compared to all other sources of generation.

For decades, utilities have had success reaching large commercial and industrial and even residential customers with incentive-based DSM programs like energy efficiency and demand response. PJM is an example of a regional transmission organization (RTO) that understands and actively pursues energy efficiency initiatives to include in its regional capacity planning. Over time, PJM has encouraged over a gigawatt of annual energy efficiency projects in its current and future capacity markets.

The one hurdle faced by utilities and RTOs is awareness of these programs. Small- to medium-sized businesses, energy service companies (ESCOs), and even larger commercial customers may not be fully aware of the availability of these programs. Incentives can go a long way toward clearing energy efficiency project hurdles. For example, utility and RTO incentives may be the final project piece that enables payback and ROI calculations to meet internal financial requirements. Organizations can benefit from working with outside specialists in this area to help understand what is available and how best to assess and include incentives in efficiency and sustainability initiatives.

Join the Conversation

Navigant Research is hosting a free webinar, Monetizing Energy Efficiency: Creating Additional Value Streams for Your Customers, on December 12 at 2 p.m. EST. I will be joined by Meg Kelly, Senior Director of Energy Efficiency, and Russ Newbold, Director of Sales Operations at CPower. Learn the benefits of utilizing PJM capacity credits as a value to you and your customers.

The webinar will help end-use customers—and ESCOs that serve customers—learn what capacity credits are, how to attain them, and how to make them a part of the value chain to earn more energy efficiency project business. This webinar will outline how to benefit from these credits and, for ESCOs, how to add value to proposals all the way through receiving the payments.

 

Is Finland Europe’s Best Hope for Microgrids?

— December 7, 2017

While Europe is considered a global leader in moving toward a low carbon energy future, the tightly regulated EU markets have several features that severely limit the development of microgrids:

  • The focus has been on large-scale renewable energy development such as offshore wind, which requires massive investment in transmission infrastructure.
  • Deployment of distributed energy resources such as rooftop solar PV has primarily been based on feed-in tariffs, a business model precluding the key defining feature of a microgrid—the ability to seal off resources from the larger grid via islanding.
  • EU markets are tightly interwoven and methods to address the variability of renewables such as wind and solar lean toward cross-border trading, not localized microgrids.

As the forthcoming update to Navigant Research’s Microgrid Deployment Tracker demonstrates, Europe represents approximately 9% of the global microgrid market. The vast majority of microgrids deployed in Europe are actually on islands in the Mediterranean, the Canary Islands off the coast of Spain, or projects such as Bornholm or the Faroe Islands of Denmark.

I recently attended the International Symposium on Microgrids in Newcastle, Australia at the CSIRO Energy Centre. One could argue that Australia is the current global hotspot for commercialization of the Energy Cloud ecosystem. I have certainly made that argument in the past.

Fortune in Finland?

Perhaps the most surprising revelation at the conference was this: a unique confluence of factors make Finland the best opportunity for microgrids in Europe. Finland is not only the global leader on smart meter deployments, with 99% of its 3.5 million customers having access to this technology, but it also has a deregulated wholesale and retail market that features 83 distribution system operators (DSOs), with the largest distribution networks composed of 200,000 customers.

Unlike its neighbors Sweden and Norway, Finland lacks massive hydroelectric resources. What hydro it has tends to be run-of-the-river systems, and some of the smaller scale systems are microgrid-friendly. Most importantly, Finland is a country that does not fully share the stellar reliability associated with the EU grid. During blackouts in 2011 and 2012, as many as 570,000 customers lost power for an extended period of time. This outage raised the issue of the vulnerability of the Finland grid to winter storms due to overhead lines running through the country’s deeply forested regions that can sag from snow.

Pro-Consumer Policy Changes

In a quick response to these power outages, new regulations have been put in place that limit power outages to 6 hours annually for urban residents and 36 hours for rural customers by 2028. In a policy that would likely scare utilities in the US, DSOs are required to compensate customers for power outages. If a power outage lasts longer than 12 hours, the DSO must pay the customer 10% of its annual distribution fee, and compensation goes up gradually to a maximum of 200% with interruptions longer than 288 hours.

The first option of most DSOs to respond to these new reliability regulations is to place distribution lines underground. However, that can be expensive, especially given the low density of some DSO customer bases. According to research performed by Lappeeranta University of Technology (LUT), the lowest cost option for 10%‒40% of the medium voltage branch lines would be low voltage direct current microgrids. One such LVDC microgrid project, developed by LUT in collaboration with DSO Suur-Savon Sähkö, was developed in 2012, incorporating solar PV and batteries. Though only one other microgrid currently is operating, Finland represents an ideal market for utility distribution microgrids.

 

Cities Like Madison Lead the Way to Local Clean Energy

— December 5, 2017

As the Inaugural North American Climate Summit convenes in Chicago, Illinois, cities from across North America are leading the way toward ambitious climate action. The shift to local clean energy, known as the Energy Cloud transition, is creating new space for cities to influence the energy ecosystem. This transition will accelerate even more quickly as the adoption of Energy Cloud platforms supporting smart cities, building-to-grid, electrification of transportation, and more increases.

Imagining the Energy Cloud at Madison

Cities such as Madison, Wisconsin are influencing the Energy Cloud transition through their push for renewable energy and the reduction of carbon emissions. In March 2017, the City of Madison became the 25th city in North America to set the ambitious goal of powering city operations with 100% renewable energy and zero net carbon emissions. Navigant Consulting, Inc. (Navigant) is working with the City of Madison to envision what the future Energy Cloud looks like in this community. At a public forum earlier this year, we created a depiction of an Energy Cloud based on public input about how the City of Madison could achieve zero net carbon emissions by working together with the community to implement energy efficiency, renewable energy, and efficient transportation.

Imagining the Energy Cloud at the City of Madison, Wisconsin

Source:  Navigant (artist credit to Truscribe)

Madison’s “Energy Cloud” strategy includes making its facilities and operations more efficient, adding renewable energy generation, and identifying opportunities to incorporate renewable fuels and electrify its transportation fleet. People play an important role too. Influencing behavior by encouraging active transport, such as biking and walking, can help people reduce reliance on fossil transportation fuels and achieve health benefits through reduced air particulate matter and more active lifestyles. Additional ideas include training vehicle operators and building operators to operate vehicles and buildings as efficiently as possible.

Cities can’t accomplish their goals for renewable energy without working with utilities. The Energy Cloud includes opportunities for cities and utilities to work together. In Madison, the city is talking to two local utilities, Madison Gas and Electric (MGE) and Alliant Energy’s Wisconsin Power and Light (WPL), to identify areas of mutual interest. Topic areas include promoting energy efficiency, expanding solar and wind energy generation, expanding the use of EVs and developing charging infrastructure, and identifying opportunities to build social equity and economic development into these initiatives. The City of Madison and MGE have already made progress toward mutually identified goals: a recent grant will yield the first three all-electric Proterra Catalyst buses in Madison. Discussions with WPL are gaining momentum. The parties are looking at creative strategies such as building solar arrays on sloped industrial sites not well suited for buildings, possibly modeled after WPL’s successful West Dubuque Solar Garden project—the largest single solar array in the state of Iowa.

Leading the Way via People Power and Collaboration

Each city must envision its own Energy Cloud to account for the needs of its own stakeholders, including individual taxpayers, utilities, the business sector, environmental groups, and others. For Madison, people power and collaboration is key to moving closer to realizing 100% renewable energy. Cities like Madison are leading the way to implement an Energy Cloud transformation.

What does the Energy Cloud look like for your city? Navigant has identified five factors for success for cities that are looking to create their own Energy Cloud.

 

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