Navigant Research Blog

EV Telematics Market Begins to Take Shape

— May 18, 2012

While the market for electric vehicles (EVs) is still very small, it’s important to recognize that EV telematics are at the cutting edge of the telematics industry.  As I point out in my report on EV Telematics, 73% of EVs in 2012 have “connected vehicle telematics” – packages that include streaming content and cloud applications.  This mix is expected to grow to almost 80% by 2017.

In June, I am moderating a panel at the Telematics Detroit 2012 conference on telematics for EVs.  The event, which will feature panelists from Continental, Nissan, Agero and SAP, will not include individual presentations.  That’s a good thing because it means more time dedicated to the panel discussion.

It’s also clear that this conference will cover the telematics industry overall.  Many of the sessions are focused on digital content for vehicles, pay-as-you-drive (PAYD) issues, and the interaction of automotive OEMs with other service providers.  The telematics for EV session will be part of the Auxiliary & Vertical Markets track, which is interesting because this panel will cap off a day of fleet, aftermarket, and mobile health telematics panels.

We’ll be discussing many of the key issues facing the telematics industry as a whole, but from the perspective of EVs.  This will include differentiation between traditional vehicle and EV telematics, smart grid integration, privacy issues, and how important telematics are given the rise of smartphones.  Aside from the differentiation question, the telematics industry is going to be facing a variation of all these issues in the broader automotive market.

Obviously, in a 35 minute panel we can’t cover all the issues facing EV manufacturers and telematics suppliers.  EVs are likely to be among the first to get a PAYD tax system applied to the vehicle owners, and the small size of the EV market raises questions of how OEMs can use telematics as a tool to promote the value of the vehicles.  With such a high concentration of connected vehicle telematics in the EV market, there may also be faster influence on the market by social media companies.

 

Beyond the Fuel Cell Bubble

— May 17, 2012

Living in the United States, it can be easy to think that there is little happening with fuel cells.  For the transportation sector, all of the momentum in the U.S. is on the battery electric vehicle side – with billions in private and public money being invested in the cars, the batteries, and the charging systems.  Fuel cell cars have to a large degree dropped off the public radar in the States.  And for some reason this sense that fuel cell cars are over has bled over into other fuel cell markets that are unrelated to passenger cars.

There is in fact a lot happening with fuel cells, especially in the European Union, Japan, and South Korea.  So it is useful to get outside the bubble one lives in and find out what else is happening.  That’s one of the benefits of the annual World Hydrogen Energy Conference (WHEC), one of the few annual hydrogen industry events specifically designed to offer a global perspective.

This year’s WHEC is being held in Toronto, Canada from June 3rd through the 7th.  Because the event is in Canada, Canadian firms are naturally being highlighted, with fuel cell companies Ballard and Hydrogenics especially prominent.  But this event is about exploring the range of work on fuel cells and hydrogen around the world.  The speaker line-up includes representatives from well over 30 countries.

There is a particularly strong German presence, reflecting the leadership role that Germany has taken in promoting fuel cell cars, buses, and stationary power.  The German National Organization for Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology (NOW) has a featured spot and hopefully will give an update on its efforts to support the commercialization of fuel cell technologies.  This program has been allotted $680 million in public funding, matched by a minimum of 50% industry cost share.  The program is explicitly focused on market preparation.  Daimler and Linde are also prominently featured, and will probably talk about their partnership to build 20 public hydrogen filling stations in Germany.

Indeed, the automotive outlook panels overall should prove interesting.  Automakers are about two years out from their target date for commercial vehicles, which means they are focused on bringing down costs for that target.  I am hoping to get some more public signals from them on what to expect.

Another interesting aspect of this show will be the reports from representatives of emerging economies.  South Africa has several speakers on the agenda, which is unsurprising considering that South Africa is the largest producer of platinum.  Nevertheless, fuel cell activity there has been slow to develop.  India and Brazil are also to be highlighted.  The R&D Centre for the Indian Oil Corporation will talk about the potential for fuel cells to provide backup power for the booming telecom market.  Brazil is exploring fuel cell buses, an obvious fit given the size of its bus manufacturing industry. The WHEC agenda highlights the range of activities around the world on fuel cells and hydrogen – providing a useful corrective to our sometimes insular view from the U.S.

 

U.S. Military Not Retreating on Clean Energy

— May 9, 2012

While many government officials nervously await the outcome of the November elections and speculate as to its implications for the cleantech sector, one federal department is likely to be relatively unaffected regardless of the outcome: Defense.

According to panelists at the recent “Mission Critical: Clean Energy and the U.S. Military“ event in Denver, the military’s growing commitment to reducing its use of fossil fuel, for both national security and economic reasons, will not waver regardless of who’s in charge in the White House or the Congress.

Senator Mark Udall of Colorado rattled off a series of statistics that underline the reasons for the military’s emphasis on becoming as green as the army’s uniforms:

  • The military is 25 percent of government’s energy burden
  • The Pentagon is biggest consumer of fossil fuels in the world, burning 300,000 barrels of oil per day at a cost of more than $30 million in fuel per day
  • A $1 increase in the price of oil increases DoD’s energy cost by $100 million per year
  • 1 out of every 50 convoys in a combat zone results in a casualty, and the Army has accrued more than 3300 fatalities in convoys since 2001
  • Convoy and security costs $100 per gallon for combat zones

Udall emphasized that the military is implementing many fuel-reducing technologies because of the high human price paid in getting fuel to the front lines. “Saving energy saves lives,” he said, adding that adopting clean energy technologies is “one of the most patriotic things we can do.”

Despite any changes that might occur in the leadership in the executive or legislative branches, the military will continue to be an early adopter of clean technologies that enable it to become more energy independent. These includes making military bases self-sufficient (and less vulnerable to attack) by creating microgrids, and purchasing a large number of hybrid and electric vehicles for its non-combat fleet.

While investors may be endangering the cleantech industry by exiting or staying out of the market, the military remains committed to deploying solar and wind. The military will generate 25 percent of its energy from renewables by 2025, according to Mark Mahoney, director of the Army Regional Environmental and Energy Office.  Mahoney said one benefit to renewable adoption is that a platoon can reduce the load it carries by 700 pounds simply by replacing portable generators with solar chargers.

Fort Carson, Colorado, recently achieved the challenging trifecta of becoming a “net zero” facility for energy, water and waste. Fort Carson became the second such army facility, joining Fort Bliss in El Paso, Texas.  The military’s unrelenting commitment to clean energy is consistent with its overarching mantra of preparedness.  According to Mahoney, we can’t “afford to wait until the next international energy crisis … or national tragedy forces us to act.”

 

A Road Warrior’s Guide to Smart Grid Security Conferences

— March 27, 2012

This time of year I often wake up thinking, “What city is this and where am I sleeping tonight?”  Last year I attended 15 smart grid conferences – probably five more than I needed to.  The trick is to find the ones with useful and unique content, and with a wide range of attendees.  Unless I pay attention to what I’m doing, I’ll see the same speakers giving the same presentations several times in quick succession.  That’s a depressing use of time away from home.

Here are some of my strategies for selecting conferences to attend.  They may work for you as well:

  • First, obviously, understand why you attend conferences at all.  For me as a research analyst, good networking is paramount.  Your needs may be different.
  • Have one or two Old Faithful conferences – events where you trust that the host will attract useful speakers, topics, and attendees.
  • Government-sponsored events can offer interesting speakers who may only be approved to speak at their events.
  • Attend some vendor-sponsored events.  The typical attendee at a vendor conference has little use for abstract discussions.
  • Do not attend too many conferences with similar speaker lists.

Some of the conferences I’m looking forward to in the next couple of months:

  • GridSec, March 27-29 in Irving, Texas (Dallas area).  Somewhat of an ‘old home week’ for me – a good place to catch up with many industry colleagues.  I will moderate two panel sessions.  Also this is the one conference during 2012 that I can attend without boarding an airplane.
  • ABB Automation and Power World, April 23-26, Houston, where I will lead two cyber security sessions.  This will be my first time attending an ABB conference.  I plan to spend a lot of time with my mouth shut, learning.
  • Industrial Control Systems Joint Working Group (ICS JWG), May 8-9, Savannah, Georgia.  Hosted by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and perhaps the only cyber security conference where you’ll see the FBI speak.  Registration is free, so if you live in the U.S. it’s a chance to see your tax dollars at work.

If you attend any of these events please find me and let’s have a chat.  You can always see which conferences I or the other Pike Research analysts will be attending on our Industry Events page.  If you haven’t already checked out that page, I will warn you – there is a lot of information.  Primary research is our currency, and, like any currency, we want as much as we can get our hands on.

 

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