Navigant Research Blog

Road Tests to Provide Critical Vehicle Communications Data

— February 2, 2017

There are several projects launching in 2017 expected to generate data that will lead to a future where vehicles talk both to each other and to infrastructure. This shift would not only increase safety, but also ease traffic congestion within range. Leading chipmakers, automakers, and communications companies are teaming up in field trials and in co-development of vehicle-to-everything (V2X) technologies.

The US Department of Transportation paved the way for vehicle communications standards by developing the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard, No. 150, on vehicle-to-vehicle communications. Published in the Federal Register in January 2017, the proposed standard would require manufacturers to install dedicated short-range communication (DSRC) radios into new vehicles within the next 4-5 years.

January’s Consumer Electronics Show (CES) was the launchpad for several announcements on V2X communications. AT&T, Delphi, and Ford are co-developing a platform to enable vehicles to communicate with each other as well as infrastructure to enhance vehicle safety and security and reduce traffic congestion. The platform will use AT&T’s LTE cellular network to expand communications beyond the shorter range DSRC communications, which are based on a variant of Wi-Fi.

Also at CES, Audi, Ericsson, Qualcomm, SWARCO Traffic Systems, and the University of Kaiserslautern announced they were collaborating on the Connected Vehicle to Everything of Tomorrow project. The project is also a V2X trial, this time using the 3rd Generation Partnership Project’s Release 14 standard. It will include 4G and 5G LTE communications between vehicles and with infrastructure and pedestrians.

Sales of light duty vehicles with built-in DSRC in North America are expected to surpass 20 million annually by 2023, while sales of vehicles with 5G communications are expected to top 1 million annually by 2025, according to Navigant Research’s recently published Connected Vehicles report.

Connected Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Communications Type, North America: 2020-2025

(Source: Navigant Research)

Communications Innovations

Chipmaker Intel is expanding its automotive profile with products for both in-vehicle and external communications. Also at CES, Intel announced the Intel GO automotive and 5G platforms. The 5G platform “allows automakers to develop and test a broad range of 5G use cases and applications.” Intel’s solution will enable environmental and traffic data to be brought into the vehicle to be processed by the company’s internal chips to enhance the safety and efficiency of automated vehicle driving functions.

In January, the Volkswagen Group announced that it would be adding 5G capability to future I.D. electric vehicles to assist the company’s automated driving features. According to HybridCars.com, the faster communications will be used in vehicles beginning in 2020.

Collecting field data on how communications from infrastructure can enhance vehicle safety and performance is also the aim of a consortium in Singapore. The NTU-NXP Smart Mobility Consortium is developing a test bed using 50 vehicles and 35 data collection units along roadways that will capture video of vehicle activities on the campus of Nanyang Technological University. The project will relay information to the vehicles about driving conditions, traffic signals, and parking availability to enable drivers to make effective navigation decisions.

The Road Ahead

To approach full self-driving capability, automated vehicles will increasingly rely on data broadcast via DSRC and 5G from other vehicles and infrastructure to monitor traffic flow and alert the vehicles of potentially dangerous situations. The next few years will be spent analyzing the data from collaborations and road tests formed in 2017 to understand the efficiency and responsiveness of automated vehicles in a variety of real-world situations.

 

V2V Mandate Now Unlikely, Impact on Industry Unclear

— February 2, 2017

CodeThe latest in a rapid fire sequence of executive orders signed by the new president this week appears likely to kill the proposed mandate for vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications in the United States. How this will affect the actual market for the technology remains unclear as of this writing, although it will almost certainly slow adoption.

Issued on January 30, 2017, the new order requires that before any federal agency may enact any new regulation, two existing regulations must be rescinded. In addition to the general ban on new rules, the order also requires that the net incremental cost of any regulations enacted and rescinded must be no greater than zero.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) officially published the notice of proposed rulemaking to mandate V2V to the federal register on January 12, 2012. While the proposed regulation is broadly (if not universally) supported in the automotive industry, it nonetheless appears to fall within the scope of the executive order. At this time, there are no clear candidates for regulations to be rescinded if NHTSA wants to proceed with the V2V rule, and it would take time to evaluate which rules to eliminate. That makes it unlikely that the mandate will be enacted under the current administration.

Not Dead Yet

However, even in the absence of a regulation, the industry is still likely to move forward with deployment of V2V and vehicle-to-external (V2X) technologies. General Motors is planning to launch V2V in the next few months on the Cadillac CTS, and supplier Delphi has already begun production of the hardware for this application. Many other automakers and suppliers also support the deployment of V2X communications to enhance drivers’ situational awareness for improved safety.

V2X also provides an important additional layer of real-time information to supplement the line-of-sight data provided by the sensors for automated driving. Most of the automakers and suppliers working on automated driving see the addition of V2X as critical to ensuring the robustness of these systems by providing a means for vehicles, pedestrians, and other participants in the transportation ecosystem to signal intent to each other.

Navigant Research’s Connected Vehicles report projects annual global sales of nearly 70 million light duty vehicles by 2025 with factory installed V2X capability based on dedicated short range communications (DSRC) technology. DSRC was projected to be the primary technology used for V2X in most markets, but in the absence of a US mandate, the adoption rate is now expected to be slower.

Cellular Technologies

There will be significant pressure from communications carriers to utilize cellular technologies in place of Wi-Fi-based DSRC. Currently, 4G LTE technologies are inadequate for the low latency required for V2V applications. New 5G systems are targeted to achieve the same sub-10 ms latency of DSRC but these are still in development with no finalized standards. Broad deployment is not expected until the early 2020s.

Achieving the maximum benefit of V2X communications requires a critical mass of vehicles in use to be equipped. Given the long development lead times in the auto industry and slow turnover of the fleet, these requirements will likely push out the benefits of V2X for several more years into the later 2020s.

If industry leaders in the use and development of DSRC technology (including but not limited to GM, Toyota, Honda, and Delphi) proceed with their deployment plans and see it as a competitive advantage for improving safety, projections of universal adoption on new vehicles may still be met by 2025. However, the only thing certain right now is that we are likely facing a period of much greater uncertainty over the next several years.

 

Startups Mine Traffic Data to Drive City Efficiency

— November 2, 2016

Connected VehiclesThe traffic jam. It frustrates commuters, causes huge losses in productivity, and negatively affects air quality. This aggravating problem (and the often futile attempts to prevent it) dates back to the horse and buggy, and startups are now creating innovative analytics to better understand the causes of jams and developing services to increase the flow of vehicles.

Examining Intersections

RSM Traffic, based in Dublin, Ireland, focuses on collecting data from intersections within a city to enhance the effectiveness of traffic light timing. The company’s Simon platform analyzes the sensor data located at multiple intersections to create a network to better understand the interaction of traffic flows across locations.

Kathryn Mullins, Head of Strategic Partnerships at RSM, said the company uses radar to study the flow of vehicles, and its open software application programming interface (API) is data agnostic, enabling data collection from other sources such as city data repositories. Mullins said RSM’s target audience includes cities, commercial property owners, and media companies looking to get better data on the traffic flow around outdoor advertisements. RSM said Simon is not currently using data received from vehicle telematics systems, but the platform has the capability to accept data via dedicated short-range communications (DSRC), which would provide additional granularity in understanding driving routes.

Navigation Analysis

San Francisco, home to some of the worst traffic conditions in the United States, is also home to StreetLight Data. Founder and CEO Laura Schewel said the company uses data from relationships with in-car navigation system providers and mobile phone applications to understand the location and length of driving trips. Schewel said the company has anonymized data from millions of vehicles, which has been used to support nearly 200 transportation projects.

StreetLight Data aggregates location data on the origin and destination of trips, enabling retailers or city managers to understand where vehicles come from and where they go next. The mobile phone data is analyzed for the time and distance traveled in order to differentiate between driving and other trips such as biking or walking, according to Schewel. In October, the company announced a deal to integrate its Travel Metrics service into products from transportation modeling and forecasting software provider PTV Group.

StreetLight Data’s services are delivered via a web portal and has particular applications for the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market. Commercial property owners, charging networks, or utilities looking to find locations where PEV traffic is sufficiently dense can use StreetLight Data’s information to optimize the siting of charging infrastructure. The company can analyze trip data to find locations where PEV drivers are likely to need a charge based on where they live and common distances driven.

While the term big data may seem Orwellian to some, services like RSM Traffic and StreetLight Data will play a significant role in enabling smart cities to be safer and more livable by increasing the traffic flow and enabling the growth of emissions-free PEVs.

 

Progress on Automotive Cyber Security, but Still Much to Do

— August 8, 2016

CarsharingWhen I joined Navigant Research two years ago, I sat down on my first day and wrote a post on this blog about automotive cyber security. At that point, most of the industry was still largely refusing to acknowledge that cyber security was even something to be concerned about. Things have changed quite dramatically since then, but there is still a long way to go, as recent news shows.

All of the major automakers except for Tesla have come together to establish the Automotive Information Sharing and Analysis Center (Auto-ISAC). Like ISACs in other industries, the Auto-ISAC provides a mechanism for manufacturers to share non-competitive information about security threats and collaborate on understanding and correcting these vulnerabilities. Since the Auto-ISAC started operations at the end of 2015, it has also begun to add suppliers to its member ranks.

Developing Best Practices

At the recent Billington Automotive Cybersecurity summit in Detroit, the Auto-ISAC announced the development of a set of cyber security best practices for the industry. Industry executives and regulators—including General Motors CEO Mary Barra, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration director Mark Rosekind, and Secretary of Transportation Anthony Foxx—discussed the importance of designing for cyber security and what is being done to address threats.

In August of 2014, Tesla was taking the lead on hiring white hat hackers to work on security from inside, and other companies are now doing the same. Tesla, GM, and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles have all established responsible disclosure programs that provide a means for researchers to submit information about vulnerabilities they have discovered.

A pair of Silicon Valley startups, HackerOne and Bugcrowd, have developed platforms for submission and vetting of vulnerability disclosures that are used by these automakers as well as dozens of other technology companies. Bugcrowd has also developed a reputation system for researchers that submit vulnerability information and works with client companies to select groups of white hat hackers to conduct pre-release testing on new products.

Numerous startups including Karamba Security, Argus Cyber Security, and TowerSec have popped up in recent years to develop both hardware and software solutions to help detect and stop intrusions from malicious attackers. Since everyone familiar with cyber security acknowledges that no complex system can ever be guaranteed as secure, manufacturers are also working on resilience to keep vehicles safe in the event of an attack and be able to update them quickly after vulnerabilities are found.

Navigant Research’s Automotive Cyber Security report projects that by 2025, more than 45 million vehicles annually will have telematics capabilities that enable over-the-air software updates, just as Tesla does today on its vehicles.

Vulnerabilities Continue

Despite the progress, recent news shows that there is still much work to be done on existing vehicles. In Houston, Texas, a pair of car thieves have been arrested after stealing 30 Jeeps in 6 months by hacking the vehicles’ ignition systems with a computer. Charlie Miller and Chris Valasek have again hacked a vehicle, taking control of the steering and brakes. After FCA corrected the vulnerability that enabled last year’s remote hack, they connected a computer through the onboard diagnostic port this time.

Yet another group of researchers have even demonstrated how a signal generator could be used to provide false reflections and fool the radar sensor of a Tesla with its AutoPilot driver assist active.

There will be undoubtedly be many more such demonstrations in the coming years as vehicles get more sensors, more connectivity, and more automation. From here on out, the industry can no longer afford to relax and will have to remain vigilant and ready to respond quickly to threats. Fortunately, they seem to be doing just that.

 

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