Navigant Research Blog

A Bird’s Eye View of the Construction Sector

— March 13, 2015

From mysteriously hovering over the Paris skyline to enabling extrajudicial executions to repairing and maintaining power grids, unmanned flying drones are finding more and more uses. Recent rules from the FAA establishing a regulatory framework for the fledgling technology has limited many commercial uses. Amazon’s plan to deliver packages by drone may be grounded for now, but applications of drones in the construction industry hold promise.

The current capabilities of drones, namely the ability to fly and take pictures, make them well-suited to create as-built drawings of buildings. Often, as buildings are constructed, the original design has to be modified based on conditions in the field. In order to be useful for operations and maintenance, these drawings need to be accurate and up-to-date. Unfortunately, the accuracy and completeness of as-built drawings are often lacking. Drones could provide a way to document what gets installed behind the walls of a building as those walls go up. Artificial intelligence and image processing could nearly eliminate the role of people in the process.

The Sky Is the Limit

As drone capabilities expand, so too will their role in construction. The Swiss architecture firm Gramazio Kohler Architects has used quadcopters to build a structurally stable tower out of blocks. The drones are able to collaborate and communicate through an algorithm that directs the drones to avoid collisions and optimizes the path for fast payload pickup and release.

A day where drones are used to replace manual labor in the construction of buildings may not be far behind. Construction equipment maker Komatsu has already unveiled plans for unmanned bulldozers and excavators to dig holes and move earth autonomously using data from drones. Currently, the unmanned equipment will mainly operate along preprogrammed routes and have human operators able to take control if necessary. But automating more of the unskilled construction tasks is one step closer to reality.

Do Robots Dream of Electric Masonry Saws?

Though drones are a visible step toward construction automation, they will not be the only robots on the job site. Both R-O-B Technologies and Construction Robotics have developed prototypes of robotic bricklayers. Using robotic arms, rather than drones, the demonstrations have yielded faster production than human workers with high levels of accuracy and precision. Moreover, robots can make construction sites safer. With 796 fatal work injuries in the United States during 2013, construction is one of the deadliest professions. Replacing human labor with robot labor holds promise for a safer future.

 

China’s Coming Property Crash

— June 6, 2014

The sheer magnitude of building growth in China has been remarkable.  According to the Financial Times, China produced more cement in just 2 years, 2011 and 2012, than the United States produced in the entire 20th century.  China’s unprecedented urbanization has resulted in hundreds of millions of migrants flocking to China’s cities to manufacture the country’s exports and build its infrastructure.  This, in turn, has driven an unsustainable combination of a gravity-defying growth in construction coupled with rapidly rising housing prices.   If China is indeed in a property bubble, the correction could be painful.

Concerns about a Chinese property bubble were raised as early as 2010.  Ordos, a city in Inner Mongolia, undertook an ambitious project to develop a 12-square-mile area of empty land outside of the city into a thriving metropolis.  Rather than a thriving metropolis, the $1 billion project resulted in a ghost town when the project failed to attract residents.  In early 2011, when banks tightened credit, coal companies, upon which the resource-rich city depended, consolidated.  As a result, property sales stalled, precipitating a collapse in prices.  Ordos wasn’t the only casualty.  Several other major cities throughout China experienced price declines, leading many, including The Wall Street Journal, to declare the end of the property bubble in China to be imminent.

Impact on Smart Buildings

Indeed, prices did retreat in 2011.  But rather than burst, they rebounded, buoyed by sustained demand in China’s top cities.  But recent weakness in Chinese economic indicators has again raised concerns of a burst.  Economists at the Japanese bank Nomura have declared, “it is no longer a question of ‘if’ but rather ‘how severe’ the property market correction will be.”  Newly started construction for the first 4 months of 2014 is down 22.1% compared to a year earlier.  Even Pan Shiyi, a real estate tycoon and chief of Soho China, thinks China’s property market is headed for catastrophe.

The exceptional growth of construction in China has been a strong driver of building controls and automation in recent years.  A property bubble burst could, therefore, have disastrous consequences on the market for smart building technologies.  However, if there is softness in the Chinese market, no one seems to have informed the leading global manufacturers of building controls.  Honeywell, Johnson Controls, Schneider Electric, and Siemens have all reported a continued strong market in China for the first quarter of this year.

A Series of Collapses

Part of the story is momentum.  A collapse in construction activity will lag a collapse in land and property prices.  Controls equipment manufacturers may even lag behind construction activity.  Also, although indications of a plunge in construction prices are strong, it hasn’t occurred yet.  China has been in the position of having economic data pointing to it being on the cusp of a property bubble burst before.  Its chronic oversupply and perpetually buoyant prices may be unsustainable, but the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

When the burst does come, advanced controls may prove to be more resilient than the overall market.  China has a significant proportion of aging buildings.  If the country is to reach the energy efficiency goals laid out in the 12th Five-Year Plan, advanced controls will need to be part of the equation.  Those aging buildings will be prime candidates (and great revenue sources) for energy efficient retrofits.

 

Blog Articles

Most Recent

By Date

Tags

Clean Transportation, Electric Vehicles, Policy & Regulation, Renewable Energy, Smart Energy Practice, Smart Energy Program, Smart Grid Practice, Smart Transportation Practice, Smart Transportation Program, Utility Innovations

By Author


{"userID":"","pageName":"Construction & Property","path":"\/tag\/construction-property","date":"8\/30\/2015"}