Navigant Research Blog

Where Are All the Meter Manufacturers in Transactive Energy Projects?

— December 7, 2017

That’s a question I’ve been asking myself recently. The answer seems to be “nowhere.” In the 110 or so trials of utility industry-related blockchain and transactive energy (TE) Navigant Research has identified, meter vendors are at best the silent, invisible partners of other companies. When asking leading blockchain and TE startups about the meter hardware in their trials, the stock response has been “nothing is available that supports our requirements, so we built our own.” So, why aren’t meter vendors making more noise about a potentially significant growth opportunity?

Blockchain is the hottest, most hyped technology in the energy industry, and TE is its hottest use case. If current TE trials prove successful, I expect rapid adoption, particularly in countries with high penetration of solar, supported by ratepayer-funded incentive mechanisms. TE’s market-based incentives could replace subsidies. Large-scale, fully automated TE platforms have a number of requirements, as discussed in Navigant Research’s Blockchain for Transactive Energy Platforms report:

  • TE pricing requires visibility into local network conditions, including network assets and distributed energy resources.
  • Smart contracts—which determine when transactions are opened and closed—must be hosted locally and fed with market data.
  • Meters measure and record all TE power supplied and consumed.
  • Communication networks will transport data to interested parties.
  • Transactions must be recorded to the blockchain.
  • Significant distributed compute power will support automation of the TE platform.

Meter Vendors Can Support Many TE Functional Requirements

TE markets will have to be settled in much the same way as wholesale power markets are today, in accordance with strict market regulations and technology standards. This is a complex system, where a lot of trust will be placed on the technology platform. Meter vendors have many capabilities that could put them in a commanding position to lead the TE space:

  • Smart meters already provide visibility at the point of consumption.
  • Advanced metering infrastructure communications could provide the data networks on which TE runs.
  • Smart meter data concentrators could be used as nodes for the blockchain, store smart contracts, provide compute power for localized pricing calculations, and so on.

There is another feature that meter vendors have so far overlooked: it is difficult to amend records already committed to the blockchain. Consequently, it is vital to ensure that transaction data is correct before it is recorded. This will be a difficult task in a largely automated TE platform. While smart meter accuracy is generally high—between 99.5% and 99.9%—a validation algorithm is run regularly to estimate missing or erroneous meter readings. In TE, a similar algorithm must run on transaction data. However, it is likely that validation will be distributed alongside the ledger, rather than a centralized batch process. Most meter vendors also offer a meter data management system with an associated validation algorithm.

Despite meter vendors’ requisite hardware and software, they are nowhere to be seen in the TE world. There are many reasons: ongoing major smart meter rollouts command a lot of attention, and there is little money to be made in TE right now. However, I would have expected at least one vendor to have taken the leap into the world of TE. The biggest risk is that meter vendors are trapped in the old utility world, where metering innovation was driven by utilities—with whom meter vendors have decades-old relationships—and adoption of new metering technologies was slow and incremental.

TE adoption will be different. It is driven by startups that have no previous relationship with meter vendors. These startups could develop their own validation algorithms; they could choose to use public 5G networks for data communications; or they may decide to deploy their own distributed compute. If this happens, meter vendors will miss out on potentially billions of dollars of value created by TE. Meter vendors must wake up to the reality of TE and the opportunities and threats the market presents.

 

Utility Cloud Use Soars in 2017

— December 5, 2017

I’ve been analyzing technology markets long enough to have observed the entire cloud computing hype cycle; it’s now a well-understood, mature technology. Which also means that there’s little to write about for an analyst more used to covering emerging technologies. However, from 2008 to 2011, I never got the chance to write a detailed report about cloud computing in the utility industry. While the cloud hype volume was cranked up to maximum, the utilities industry was doggedly refusing to move any IT infrastructure into the cloud. Which was a personal disappointment: for a fan of puns, it was difficult to resist the temptation to write a report titled Utility Computing in the Utility Industry.

I even advised a couple of cloud vendors that wanted me to tell them how to break through the conservatism of the utilities industry. My only advice? “Lobby the regulators, because utilities just aren’t going to budge on this one.” And why? Three primary reasons:

  • Conservatism: No utility ever liked going first with something new. In any monopoly market, moving first was only ever a disadvantage. Rather, utilities would wait for someone else to stump up investment capital and let vendors learn from the mistakes of others before bringing a more reliable product to market.
  • Security: I have been told more than once of security officers halting vendors’ cloud pitches midway because of security concerns.
  • Regulatory: Some regulators would not let data be transported outside of certain geographic areas, killing off any idea for clouds based in other jurisdictions.
  • Finance: The key selling point of cloud is its OPEX-based pricing scheme. While music to the ears of CFOs in other industries, it killed cloud’s chances in utilities rewarded for making capital investments.

Until a year ago, cloud’s adoption by utilities was slow and steady. However, 2017 has marked a dramatic change in the industry’s attitude toward the technology. There is no better way than using cold facts to describe the rapid acceleration of its adoption. In a recent call with SAP, I was astounded at the company’s growth in cloud-based revenue in the first three quarters of 2017: a 90% year-over-year increase on 2016. SAP’s utilities business unit recorded the second-highest growth in cloud revenue across the business, just behind retail.

Market Requirements Have Eroded Resistance to Cloud Adoption

This growth isn’t completely unexpected. European utilities are under significant pressure to reduce costs and are no longer concerned about the OPEX versus CAPEX argument. The cloud is helping them achieve this. Cloud vendors have also made great strides to improve security issues. So much so that investment in security is typically higher than a utility can manage for its onsite data centers. And with the growth in demand for cloud, vendors can build infrastructure in more locations, negating the need to move data across international borders.

What’s next? The industry is becoming more comfortable with cloud, and more IT infrastructure will be moved to it. However, this will be done in a controlled manner. Despite some (frankly laughable) claims to the contrary, private clouds will account for the vast majority of utilities’ use. Core IT infrastructure likely will never be moved to public clouds, due to the inherent increased risk.

Finally, a word of caution. I predict that some utility’s adoption of cloud services will be piecemeal, unstructured, lack a coherent strategy, and uncoordinated. Different departments will procure cloud services for their own departmental means. In effect, reversing the recent trend to consolidate data in a data lake or data warehouse. Instead, new cloud-based operational data siloes will be created, where access to data is restricted. To counter this threat, individual departments must be reined in just enough to ensure enterprisewide data management without choking innovation.

 

If You Build It, They May Come: Solving for Customer Experience in TE Platforms

— November 16, 2017

The utility customer of the future lives at the center of an ecosystem of networked and largely automated smart devices. Their household is within their preferred temperature range whenever they are at home; their EV charges when electricity prices are cheapest and is always ready for the morning commute; and they store any surplus electricity generated by their rooftop PV or, if the price is right, sell it in a digital market. Every decision made by each of these devices is a data point used by different service providers to refine and optimize customers’ distributed energy resources (DER) and integrate them with wider grid processes.

Transactive energy (TE) platforms will underpin tomorrow’s consumer energy market. The interface between energy producers and consumers, TE platforms allow parties to interact with one another in an open market while ensuring the needs of end users and the grid are met. These platforms will incorporate multiple technologies—including blockchain and machine learning—which have attracted a great deal of interest from the energy industry. But what should the consumer experience with TE platforms look like in practice?

TE Platforms Must Balance Grid Needs, User Preferences, and Ease-of-Use

TE service providers must supply an appealing product that creates value out of the box while providing options for users who are more hands-on. Optimizing household energy consumption to minimize costs requires a multitude of forecasts, calculations, and decisions. Since electricity bills in the US average around $115 per month, or 0.2% of the median household income ($55,000), the typical consumer has little incentive to manage these processes themselves.

Grid+, a technology startup and TE platform provider, solves this problem by supplying users with intelligent agents—hubs that integrate price signals, user preferences, and grid needs to coordinate a household’s smart device (TransActive Grid and Grid Singularity have a similar approach). While some user preferences may be set manually (e.g., preferred temperature range), most will be automated based on analyses of user behavior (e.g., heating the house prior to the customer’s return from work). The user decides their preferred balance of comfort and profits and they need only supply the agent with enough currency to pay bills and execute the necessary transactions on their behalf. All transactions are recorded rapidly and securely on a blockchain.

Thinking with Portals

Aspiring platform providers must devote as much attention to the end-user experience as they do to their platforms’ underlying technology. Customers balance their own comfort levels, convenience, financial costs and profits, and societal or ethical goals when making decisions about electricity consumption. Automation and machine learning solutions have the technological capability to deliver on that balance, but optimizing behind the scenes won’t be enough to inspire consumer trust or purchasing power.

The reality is that the Energy Cloud customer won’t care whether their platform rests on blockchain or a centralized database or a traditional billing system. They’ll care about outcomes and will need on-demand access to a portal that elegantly consolidates and visualizes their Internet of Things (IoT) ecosystem’s performance: What are their profits from selling power to the neighbors? How well is their PV system performing and have they paid off the install costs? How efficient is their home? Positive, confident results will drive further investment into the platforms themselves (so might friendly rivalries between local users).

For TE platform providers, competition for users will be fierce, and consumers will have their pick of platforms vying for their attention. The TE leaders in the Energy Cloud future may not have the most advanced technology, but they will have a blend of technology, functionality, user interface design, and perhaps gamification that creates an attractive and compelling user experience.

 

Dell, Others Make Bold Moves in IoT Market

— November 10, 2017

Dell made a splash in the Internet of Things (IoT) market recently, announcing a $1 billion investment over 3 years to set up a new IoT division of the company and to fund new IoT-specific products, labs, and a partner program. The goal is to prod customers into speeding up the deployment of its IoT projects. This move follows a quiet 2-year period during which Dell honed its strategy. Dell’s new IoT division will be helmed by Ray O’Farrell, executive vice president and CTO at VMware.

Dell Is Not Alone

Others are also pushing hard to drive IoT adoption across multiple sectors, including energy, mining, manufacturing, and smart cities, to name but a few. Some of the other recent IoT-related moves include:

  • Apple and General Electric (GE) announced a partnership in mid-October to produce “powerful industrial apps designed to bring predictive data and analytics from Predix, GE’s industrial IoT platform, to iPhone and iPad.” The companies also released a new Predix software development kit for iOS, which developers can use to make their own industrial IoT apps.
  • Germany’s Dialog Semiconductor announced its plans to acquire California-based Silego Technology for as much as $306 million in a move to help Dialog fortify its position in the IoT market.
  • Also in Germany, business software provider Software AG recently said it would form a new IoT cloud unit in January 2018. It also set up a new strategic alliance with a group of manufacturers that will focus on new industrial applications for IoT and Germany’s Industrie 4.0 digitization initiative.
  • In Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, the vice president of the United Arab Emirates and ruler of Dubai, launched an IoT strategy aimed at preserving the emirate’s digital wealth and setting the foundation for a smart lifestyle transformation process for its people.

More of these of investments and strategic moves related to IoT are expected as competition heats up among vendors trying to seize early market momentum and as the trend moves well beyond the hype phase. This should be good news for those companies seeking to leverage IoT technologies for their business processes. Customers should derive benefits as IoT solutions vendors invest more in their products, channeling engineering horsepower into solving complex industrial problems. For a window into what the industrial IoT market could look like over the next decade, see Navigant Research’s report, Industrial Internet of Things.

 

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