Navigant Research Blog

Time for Automakers to Get Real on Vehicle Security

— August 21, 2014

Recently, the annual Black Hat and DefCon computer security conferences took place in Las Vegas, and this week the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) announced a notice of proposed rulemaking regarding vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications.  Hacking cars was once again one of the hot topics at the two security conferences this year, in part because automakers don’t appear to have done much to improve the security of the vehicles we drive.  Each year researchers announce some newly discovered vulnerability that gets blown out of proportion by the mainstream media.

Fortunately for drivers everywhere, none of the issues discovered so far have actually amounted to anything worthy of concern.  However, as vehicles continue to get increasingly advanced in the coming years, the potential for attackable flaws will only increase.  Automakers are notoriously quiet when it comes to publicly discussing anything that might potentially be deemed a flaw in any of their products, but it’s time to change that attitude when it comes to electronic security.

Calling All Cars

Over the past half-decade, advanced driver assist systems such as adaptive cruise control, automatic parking systems, and lane departure warning and prevention have rapidly migrated down-market from expensive European luxury models to mainstream, high-volume family cars, such as the Toyota Camry and Ford Fusion.  With the addition of just a few extra sensors and a lot more software, these are the building blocks for tomorrow’s fully autonomous vehicles.

One other piece of that puzzle is the V2V communications that the NHTSA would like to mandate.  Along with vehicle-to-infrastructure  communications, cars will be able to send and receive messages that can influence the behavior of the vehicle.  Initially, the plan is to send these alerts only to drivers.  However, it’s only a matter of time before that expands to include autonomous vehicle capabilities like automatic braking or steering to avoid a collision.

Anyone who’s ever worked on software will acknowledge that it’s virtually impossible to write absolutely perfect and bug-free code, and the task gets exponentially more difficult as systems get more complex.  Automakers often like to brag about how many millions of lines of code are in the latest and greatest new vehicle and how many gigabytes of data are processed every second.  They neglect to mention how every additional byte of code means more potential for mistakes or security flaws.

No Such Thing as Bug-Free

Companies with vast software engineering expertise including Google, Facebook, and Microsoft have acknowledged that they cannot possibly find every potential issue in their products.  The impact of a Facebook or Google breach can be annoying, and potentially expensive, but not life threatening.

It’s time for automakers to follow suit and acknowledge that despite their best efforts to secure vehicles, the potential does indeed exist for security vulnerabilities.  Tesla Motors started on the right track this year with the hiring of security expert Kristin Paget away from Apple.  The company also sent a team of recruiters to the Black Hat and DefCon conferences to find more talent.

Each automaker should also set up a bounty program similar to those established by the big tech firms, which pay researchers cash rewards for disclosing security vulnerabilities to the companies.  The corporate lawyers might not be crazy about the idea, but with the recent flood of vehicle recalls from General Motors and other manufacturers, the increased focus on safety and quality might actually make this an ideal time to do this.

 

E-Bikes Gear Up in North America

— August 20, 2014

While Tesla, Nissan, and BMW get most of the headlines around electric transportation, the electric bicycle (e-bike) market is quietly gaining momentum in North America.  E-bikes are simply traditional pedal bikes with a battery pack and electric motor for propulsion.  Usually a throttle or user control module is attached to the handlebars to allow the user to adjust the power levels of electric assistance.  E-bikes offer a unique market solution for the transportation problems many cities in North America currently face: traffic congestion, fatalities from road accidents, local air quality, climate change, and the economic burdens associated with car ownership.

While the e-bike market has historically been strongest in China and Western Europe, emerging trends have helped position the industry for increased growth in North America.  Combined throttle-control and pedal-assist models, electric cargo bikes, all-in-one retrofit kits and wheels, an aging baby boomer population, and the use of e-bikes in police patrol and various security industries have all contributed to a growing market with strong potential.

Battery Prices Fall

As is the case with the broader electric vehicle market, the increasing quality and affordability of lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries is attracting new customers.  Most Li-ion e-bikes in North America range from $1,500 to $3,000.  While not as cheap as traditional bicycles, this is a relatively small upfront cost to adopt electric transportation.  If the plan is to reduce car trips or ditch your car altogether, your investment will be recouped within a few years of reduced trips to the pump and avoided insurance, parking, and vehicle maintenance costs.  Not to mention the health benefits that come with increased exercise and the avoidance of traffic jams.

Automakers Climb On

Several automotive manufacturers are joining the e-bike party.  In the United States, Ford recently partnered with Pedego Electric Bikes to design a throttle-controlled e-bike, the Ford Super Cruiser.  Daimler AG’s smart unit is one of the most aggressive automotive brands in e-bikes, partnering with GRACE GmbH to deliver an e-bike sold through dealers in Europe.  BMW recently released its pedal-assist Cruise e-bike 2014, which features a Bosch 250 W motor and 400 Wh battery.  Audi, Opel, and Volkswagen have also shown e-bike concepts, though these vehicles have not yet been announced for production.

Navigant Research’s upcoming report on e-bikes, scheduled for publication in the third quarter of 2014, will contain a detailed analysis of global market opportunities, barriers, and technology issues, along with market forecasts for e-bikes, e-bike batteries, and overall sales revenue by region.

 

Helsinki’s Plan to Make Private Cars Obsolete

— August 12, 2014

Helsinki, Finland, has proposed a strikingly ambitious mobility on demand system that presents the logical extension of current innovations in passenger travel.  The city plans to create a subscriber service that would let users choose from, and pay for, a range of transportation options through their smartphones.  The options will include conventional public transit, carsharing, bikesharing, ferries, and an on-demand minibus service that the city’s transit authority launched in 2013.

The major innovation that makes this work will be an integrated payment system.  This part of the scheme may prove the most complicated to implement, but it is the final piece of the puzzle that makes this scheme truly transformative.  No longer forced to choose between the on-demand capability of private car ownership versus the eco-friendliness of shared transit, Helsinki residents will be able to easily get where they want to go, when they want to get there, without needing a car.

I’ve been using the phrase mobility as a service for this phenomenon, but it looks like the mobile phone companies may have claimed that moniker already.  Whatever the name, the concept is the transportation version of other businesses that are moving from selling a product to selling the service or utility the consumer wants from that product.  Planned obsolescence no longer makes good business sense, and consumers can benefit from constant improvements in technology.  This is most common in information technology (in cloud computing and storage, for instance), but it’s also happening in the energy sector – especially for clean technologies like solar, where leasing programs offer a way to overcome the upfront price premium barrier.

Share, Don’t Buy

Globally, carsharing membership has grown around 28% since 2010, with Europe as the leader in this sector.  Navigant Research’s report, Carsharing Programs, forecasts that global carsharing members will surpass 12 million in 2020.  The rise of on-demand ride services, such as Uber, Lyft, and Sidecar, are also transforming the way city dwellers use taxi services.  Taking on the highly regulated taxi business, these companies face considerable opposition, but at this point, it will be hard to put the genie back into the bottle. Bikesharing and even scooter share services are also spreading.  Today’s young urban dwellers expect to be able to use an array of transportation options to suit an array of needs, at the touch of an app.

Helsinki’s program has the potential to tie into other transportation innovations, such as the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) – more carsharing programs are deploying EVs as a selling point for their service – and autonomous vehicle technology.  Wireless charging would also support schemes like Helsinki’s by ensuring that shared EVs are recharging when parked, rather than relying on the driver to remember to plug in.

Faced with dwindling demand in mature markets like North America and Western Europe, automakers are exploring a range of new services to offset lower demand and to gain a competitive edge.  Farsighted companies will look to begin selling mobility as well as vehicles, changing transportation as much as the IT and energy sectors have changed.

 

EV Makers and Utilities Unite to Realize V2G Potential

— August 7, 2014

The first major trial using electric vehicles (EVs) across the United States to strengthen the grid is about to begin.  For the first time, multiple utilities and car companies are cooperating in a deployment of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technologies coordinated by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI).

Announced at the Plug-In 2014 conference in San Jose, California, on July 29, the Open Grid Integration Platform will use grid standards for utilities to communicate with a newly created central server that will relay the information to vehicles in many states.  Sumitomo Electric developed the platform, which enables automakers to relay information to vehicles using telematics systems or any communications pathway of their choosing, according to Sunil Chhaya, the innovator and technology leader for energy and transportation at EPRI.  The pilot project relies on smart grid standards (OpenADR and SEP2) to push V2G to become viable nationally; previously, trials required custom hardware and software that was specific to a utility and EV charging station.

Smartphones + Cars + the Grid

V2G applications, including demand response, frequency regulation, and voltage regulation, modulate the power flowing to (and, in some cases, from) EVs to enable grid operators to match power supply and demand.  Phase 1 of the project will test demand response; future phases will trial regulation services.  According to Navigant Research’s report, Vehicle to Grid Technologies, by 2022, demand response programs will be able to control nearly 640 MW of load from EVs.

The project will include cars from eight automakers (Honda, BMW Group, Chrysler, Ford, GM, Mercedes-Benz, Mitsubishi Motors, and Toyota) and involves 15 utilities and grid operators, including major utilities like Duke Energy, Southern Company, Southern California Edison, and Pacific Gas and Electric.

If this technology is commercialized, automakers are expected to integrate grid communications into mobile phone applications so that EV drivers will know when their vehicles are participating in a grid service event.

No Fees, Yet

While there are many ways that information can be shared between the grid and EVs, Watson Collins, the manager of business development at Northeast Utilities, said in an interview at Plug-In that the extensive project will determine whether this method is “the best, lowest-cost way.”

Collins said the trial will not include payments to the participants who will primarily be utility employees, but a commercial program would provide incentives for participation.  Each utility’s public utilities commission (PUC) would have to approve any V2G compensation system.

Automakers could charge fees for the use of their communications platforms in V2G services.  This test platform does not require the participation of EV supply equipment or EV service companies, which, if implemented nationally, could cut them out from future V2G revenue streams.

Chhaya added that utilities will benefit, as they will be able to target potential stress on feeders or transformers caused by EV power consumption.  Utilities will be able to see which houses the EVs are drawing power from to determine how much load is coming from the car versus the residence.  This will enable utilities to “use a scalpel instead of a butcher knife” to detect and manage EV load in specific geographic locations.

 

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