Navigant Research Blog

The Door to Sharing EV Charging Data Is Now Open

— January 30, 2018

Industry players agree that understanding the interaction between plug-in EVs (PEVs) and the grid is critical to growing the PEV market. Utilities are interested in the analysis of charging behaviors and their impact on the daily load cycles so that they can plan for the additional load. In the US, with the exception of government-funded enterprises such as the EV Project, charging data collected by utilities, automakers, and charging service providers (CSPs) has remained proprietary to their organizations.

Electrify America Leading the Way

However, in the foreseeable future, investments by the likely largest funder of EV charging infrastructure in the US will spur greater openness by CSPs on charging data. Electrify America, the Volkswagen (VW) company that was created to comply with the terms of the diesel settlement with the Environmental Protection Agency, has been selecting CSPs that support open standards to enable the sharing of charging data.

On January 23, Electrify America, which will spend $2 billion over 10 years on charging infrastructure, awarded a contract to Greenlots to be the operating platform for an upcoming network of high power DC fast chargers. According to the press release, “Greenlots’ technology will enable Electrify America to effectively build, operate, and manage its high power charging network by providing real-time charger health status, utilization data, dynamic pricing capabilities, and predictive analytics.” In addition, Greenlots’ CEO Brett Hauser said that the company’s SKY platform will roll up data from all of the charging hardware, regardless of the vendor.

Installing Chargers

In December 2017, Electrify America announced that it would install 2,800 Level 2 chargers in workplace and residential locations in 17 of the biggest metropolitan areas across the US. For the project, which also includes multifamily and designated low income and disadvantaged community areas, Electrify America selected Greenlots, EV Connect, and SemaConnect as its CSP partners.

Both Greenlots and SemaConnect are participants in the Alliance for Transportation Electrification, a group that launched in November 2017 to promote open standards, help shape state policies and rate structures, and facilitate expansion of EV infrastructure. The open standard that the group supports is the open charge point protocol (OCPP), an international standard with origins in Europe that is gaining momentum in the US. OCPP is supported by Greenlots, EV Connect, and many of the largest global CSPs, as well as BMW.

Observing Results and Driving Adoption

By selecting vendors focused on storing and sharing data in a standard format, Electrify America will be able to see what is happening across its network, regardless of which vendor’s equipment is being used or which CSP is managing the equipment. For example, it will be able to track patterns of how electricity consumption from PEVs is influenced by weather, how the hourly load impact differs by region, or how charger utilization in different geographies can inform future investments in charging infrastructure.

While not all EV CSPs have embraced the notion of standardizing and sharing data, the size of Electrify America’s investment will likely encourage greater adoption of this notion from charging companies looking to get in on the action of VW’s substantial investments. The next formidable hurdle is for automotive manufacturers to also embrace open charging data. It is an encouraging step that Britta Gross of GM is among the participants in the Alliance for Transportation Electrification. Industry observers will be watching to see who joins this movement next.

 

Shell’s Acquisition of First Utility Augurs a New Wave of Competition

— January 16, 2018

At the start of 2018, a warning shot was fired across the utility industry’s bow: competition is showing no sign of abating. If anything, competition is actually heating up. The nature of utility industry competition has changed dramatically since the start of the decade.

If we rewind 5 years, utilities’ biggest competitors were other utilities. Telcos and high street retailers posed a moderate threat, as some showed an interest in the addition of energy supply to existing, mass-market services such as mobile and fixed-line communications, broadband, pay-TV, and financial services.

Telcos Contemplating Market Entry

Over the past decade, I have advised numerous telcos on opportunities in energy, some of which have moved into the space. Most of the market movement has taken place in collaboration with utilities, which essentially whitelabel energy supply. However, the impact of telcos on the energy industry (and vice versa) has been underwhelming. Why? Because there has never been an imperative for telcos to sell energy, or utilities to sell telco services. It’s a nice-to-have add-on that may help reduce customer churn, but little else.

EV Growth a Clear and Present Danger to Oil Majors

The present day competitive environment has shifted significantly. Utilities face new threats from new entrants with a significantly greater reason to enter the world of energy services. Nothing underlines the shift in competitive pressure more than Shell’s acquisition of the UK’s First Utility, the first major energy supply business to be acquired by an oil major.

This acquisition should come as no surprise to anyone monitoring the energy landscape. My last blog of 2017 called on utilities to improve their peripheral vision and monitor competitive threats. It seems that many oil majors have a more mature peripheral vision, and are already acting to mitigate future potential risks to their core business.

The shift to EVs causes significant concern for oil majors. By Navigant Research’s reckoning, plug-in EV sales in 2017 exceeded 1 million for the first time; the significant investments in recharging infrastructure and increasing concerns regarding the pollution of internal-combustion engines will only accelerate the shift to EVs. Any oil major extrapolating EV adoption to an extreme scenario of ubiquitous EVs will recognize the potential disaster for service station businesses.

Oil Majors’ Competitive Response Covers the Entire Value Chain

However, EVs present an opportunity to oil majors. Most oil majors have renewable energy subsidiaries, and EVs present a new customer segment; existing service stations are perfectly placed to convert to EV charging points and 30-minute recharge times are an additional opportunity to attract customers into a retail store. But EVs are just one part of a wider energy service ecosystem which oil majors are targeting. Shell’s recent investments and acquisitions include a sizeable portfolio of grid-scale renewables generation; Sense, a smart home technology vendor; EV recharging points in the UK; and an energy supply business with 850,000 customers.

Oil majors, if certain scenarios play out, could suffer significant loss of value in the energy transition. This has helped create significant momentum behind oil majors’ activity in downstream energy, eclipsing any efforts from telcos over the past decade.

Shell and most other oil majors recognize there is significant value up for grabs in downstream energy. Their challenge is how to pull together their different acquisitions into a service that offers significant differentiation from utility industry incumbents. The challenge for these incumbents is a credible competitive response: utilities in competitive markets must first recognize value-at-risk from non-traditional competition, then develop products and services for the 21st century consumer.

 

India Gears Up for EVs

— January 9, 2018

In 2017, governing officials announced that India plans to sell only electric cars by 2030. The announcement was part of larger climate goals put in place by the country under the Paris Agreement—goals which the country is currently projected to meet despite being the third-largest polluting country on the planet and home to over 1.3 billion people. Some speculation of whether this market shift is possible in the allotted time period has surrounded the announcement, but banning the sale of conventional, gas, and diesel-fueled vehicles has become more popular in recent months, especially across Europe with France and the UK announcing bans by 2040. With some of the world’s most polluted cities, meeting its all-electric sales goal will help India reduce emissions and meet climate goals.

Steps to Promoting EVs

Since India’s announcement of EV-only sales by 2030, several steps to increase adoption have occurred throughout the country:

  • Partnerships will allow for collaboration on EV and mobility technology as follow:

Toyota and Suzuki announced in November 2017 that they will co-deploy EVs for the Indian market beginning 2020.

Mahindra and Renesas have partnered to place Renesas as the technology partner of the Mahindra Racing Formula E team. The technology will be used to produce electric road cars as well.

Ola will partner with Tata Motors to add EVs to Ola’s cab fleet in Delhi.

Uber has inked a collaboration with Mahindra to pilot EVs in Delhi and Hyderabad by March 2018. The two will also collaborate with other stakeholders to set up public charging stations in major cities around India.

Tata Motors announced a partnership with Jayem Auto to launch the Nano EV under the name Jayem Neo.

  • New market entrants will allow for increased adoption rates.

Hyundai Ioniq plug-in hybrid will be released in India in 2018.

Honda’s Indian subsidiary is in the process of adopting an EV strategy that allows for affordable vehicles suitable for Indian roads.

– Suzuki, with its partnership with Toyota discussed above, will produce EVs for the Indian market with technical support from Toyota.

  • Government policy announcements promoting adoption and awareness of EVs are now occurring routinely.

– The government introduced smart chargers for EVs in December, with a plan to install 150 of the charging stations in the next 12 to 18 months.

The Maharashtra government is finalizing purchasing EV incentives for manufacturers and consumers—additionally, the national government is reportedly in talks to release purchasing incentives.

– The national government approved standards for EV charging stations via suggestions from the Committee for Standardization of the Protocol for Charging Infrastructure.

– The national government approved use of digital payments for charging of EVs.

Challenges Remain

The actions put forth to increase adoption and awareness of EVs in the Indian market are encouraging, but challenges remain for such a large market, leading to more doubts that the country will be able to reach its 2030 goal. Since charging infrastructure is crucial to adoption, the country will need to rapidly continue expansion of charging station installation, particularly in densely packed cities. Over 90% of EVs sold in India in 2016 were two-wheel vehicles, meaning OEMs will need to tailor model availability to this more popular market segment in India, in addition to four-wheel EVs. Finally, purchase incentives from differing levels of government could spur adoption by making vehicles more affordable in a country which ranked 150th globally in gross national income per capita in 2015.

 

Costa Rica Plans for Sustainable EV Future

— January 4, 2018

Up until now, plug-in EVs (PEVs) have been about as popular as snowshoes in Latin America due to the higher cost of the vehicles and lack of governmental focus on reducing transportation carbon emissions. However, in Costa Rica, government agencies are developing policies and infrastructure to lure automakers to send PEVs and to get consumers excited about the technology.

A Small but Ambitious Market

Costa Rica may not seem like the ideal location to grow a PEV market. The country has a gross national income per capita of just over $10,000 per year (as of 2015, per World Bank statistics), whereas most PEVs cost north of $40,000 and would be out of realistic reach for most consumers. The vehicle market is also small (just 154,000 vehicles sold annually), so it is not a top priority market for automakers to support PEV sales.

Nevertheless, with tourism to its sandy beaches and internationally renowned rain forest contributing 5% of Costa Rica’s gross domestic product, the government wants the country to project an eco-friendly image and participate in global efforts to combat climate change.

The country has set a goal of getting 37,000 PEVs on the road by 2022. On December 15, 2017, Costa Rica passed its first incentives for EV purchases, which include exemptions on the sales, consumption, and customs import taxes. According to a report from Nacion.com, this would reduce the final cost of a PEV by about 24%.

Growing Support for PEVs

Federal organizations in Costa Rica are also planning support for PEVs. The state-run utility led by Grupo ICE and Costa Rica’s integrated ministry of energy and environment (MINAE) both shared steps they are taking to promote EVs at the Third Annual Latin America Clean Transport Forum, which was held in San Jose, Costa Rica on September 20, 2017.

ICE said that with 76.6% of its power generation coming from renewables, the carbon savings of switching transportation from liquid fuels to electricity can be significant. Since 92% of residents live in private homes, pervasive access to home EV charging should smooth the introduction to PEVs. Also, the mild climate (an average temperature of 25°C) would enable PEV batteries to provide greater range and durability than in places with harsher weather. The utility is now investigating the barriers to PEV adoption and infrastructure requirements (such as charging levels and standards for collecting data) to prepare for their introduction.

EV Policy Development and Logistical Challenges

MINAE is developing a national policy for transportation electrification that will be released as part of the annual Oficializado Plan Nacional de Energía, which was due at the end of 2017 but does not appear to have been published yet. The national EV policy will set achievable goals for reducing emissions in transportation, including light and commercial vehicles as well as mass transit. These goals will align with the country’s overall climate change targets.

Despite these efforts, getting automakers’ attention to prioritize Costa Rica and other Latin American nations as PEV markets will be a challenge. With no local manufacturing plants, PEVs currently have to be imported into Latin America, and the higher cost of shipping the vehicles will need to be offset by local incentives. Consumer education in places where PEVs are rarely seen will require concerted effort from both the public and private sectors. Importing used PEVs, which have low resale values and could be used in fleets, is an effective method of introducing target customers to the capabilities of PEVs and building buzz around the technology.

 

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