Navigant Research Blog

Washington Encourages Utilities to Deploy EV Chargers

— May 13, 2015

On May 11, Washington Governor Jay Inslee signed into law a bill titled “Encouraging utility leadership in electric vehicle charging infrastructure build-out.” The law encourages public utilities commissions (PUCs) in the state to set rules for passing along the cost of electric vehicle (EV) charging to all ratepayers if they are requested to do so by investor-owned utilities.

The legislation enables utilities to pass on the cost of EV charging infrastructure as long as the rate increase does not exceed one-quarter of 1 percent. PUCs in other states have varied in their willingness to allow the cost of EV chargers to affect the rate base. For example, in Indianapolis, EV car share service Blue Indy is months behind the original launch date because the PUC there denied a similar request for EV infrastructure investments by the utility.

Washington State Representative Chad Magendanz (R-Issaquah), who sponsored the legislation, said in an email to Navigant that the law was created so that the upfront cost of charging equipment could move from the consumer to the utility. “My vision is for utility customers to be able to simply request an EV Level 2 charging station for their garage, just like they’d request a cable modem installation from the cable company … many of the current obstacles to charging at home or work will disappear.”

Restored Incentive

Washington is expected to have the fourth-most EVs on the road in 2015, according to Navigant Research’s recently published report, Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts.

Utilities are well-positioned to own and operate EV charging infrastructure since it increases the market for their product (electricity), and they also need to manage the impact of EV charging on grid stability. However, in many states, laws have prevented them from owning EV chargers, and some states, such as California, have had to revise laws to allow utility involvement.

“HB 1853 essentially restores the incentive a power company would normally have to invest in equipment that would increase its sales, but that we’ve eliminated through conservation programs,” said Magendanz. “Utilities have the expertise and purchasing power to dramatically reduce costs of this essential infrastructure build-out, and can break down barriers to EV ownership in high-density regions.”

The challenge has been for states that are pushing utilities to reduce energy consumption to recognize that transferring oil consumption from transportation into electricity delivered by utilities is economically and environmentally sound policy. States such as Washington that have low carbon intensity for producing energy (only Vermont has a lower carbon intensity, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration) can see the greatest greenhouse gas savings by encouraging EV adoption.

 

Solving the EV Charging Puzzle

— May 11, 2015

When Tesla, Nissan, and General Motors (GM) introduced plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) to the mass market, arguments against PEVs mainly cited weaknesses with vehicle cost, range, and limited publicly available electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE). The first two weaknesses are difficult to solve, but their solutions are fairly straightforward: battery cost cuts through economies of scale and range increases through the development of better batteries. However, solving the third weakness is more nuanced. For instance, it’s been assumed that simply increasing public charging infrastructure will increase the adoption of PEVs, which has led to multiple government- and utility-funded initiatives on public infrastructure build-outs.

A Contradiction

Though it’s arguable that the public charge point build-out on behalf of the EV Project has been integral to PEV sales growth (most likely as passive marketing), data from these and other early infrastructure projects has suggested that PEV owners overwhelmingly charge at home rather than at the public points. This fact questions the practicality of these initial public infrastructure investments. Yet, data analyzed from a survey discussed in Navigant Research’s Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts report suggests that a lack of charging infrastructure still seems to be the biggest drawback to PEV ownership, as illustrated in the chart below.

Primary Drawback to PEV Ownership, United States: 2015              

(Source: Navigant Research)

What this contradiction appears to indicate is that yes, there is a need and likely a business case for public EVSE, but it needs to be in the right place. The trouble is that building owners are unlikely to invest in EVSE unless they see a need from residents, employees, or customers. And these groups are unlikely to ask for these services unless they have a PEV, which is unlikely if they don’t have places to plug in the PEV. What this all means is that the EVSE industry has to continue to find the right places for both the PEV owner and the building owner—or run the risk of placing infrastructure where it’s unnecessary.

Innovation

An innovative approach to solving this problem is underway thanks to the efforts of a San Francisco-based non-profit organization, Charge Across Town. In mid-April, the organization launched the Driving on Sunshine campaign, which showcases EVSE company Envision Solar’s integration of solar power and energy storage into a mobile EVSE unit named the EV ARC. The campaign places three EV ARCs at predetermined locations throughout San Francisco for 3-month periods and collects data on site usage. Findings on the data will be used to inform on public EVSE use and determine where units may be most effectively placed for consistent use; units will be donated to sites with the most use.

The charging stations are likely not inexpensive; however, it’s feasible to consider that a utility with big plans for infrastructure development (Pacific Gas & Electric, perhaps) would benefit greatly from a similar approach to siting public EVSE installations. Further, it would provide incredible value to potential host sites in actually determining the efficacy of EVSE placement without the added costs and embarrassment of a never-used public EVSE station.

 

California Utilities Look to Manage EV Charging

— March 27, 2015

Through multiple programs aimed at both supply and demand, California has developed the most vibrant market for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) in the world. According to the forthcoming update of Navigant Research’s report, Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts, the total number of light duty PEVs in California is expected to surpass 140,000 by the end of this year and 1.5 million by 2023. The state’s electric power sector is taking note because the speedy PEV market growth may pose problems if PEV charging isn’t managed well.

The most likely problems will occur at the residential transformer, where a cluster of PEVs may outstrip a transformer’s capacity, requiring costly upgrades and/or repairs. To date, this issue has been fairly minor, with California’s three major utilities (Pacific Gas and Electric [PG&E], Southern California Edison [SCE], and San Diego Gas & Electric [SDG&E]) reporting that, of the 97,350 PEV customers in their combined service territories from July 2011 to October 2014, there have only been 126 PEV-related infrastructure upgrades.

Getting Worse

These problems are likely to worsen with the aforementioned 10-fold increase in PEVs in under 10 years. Looking ahead, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) launched a PEV submetering pilot in September 2014 through the big utilities. The pilot is designed to lower energy costs for PEV owners through time-of-use (TOU) rates that incentivize off-peak charging and measure their energy consumption for vehicle charging apart from their overall energy consumption. By separating PEV charging, utilities could assess how best to influence PEV charging beyond TOU rates to avoid infrastructure upgrades.

Although TOU rates are effective at managing demand for a more efficient grid at the generation and transmission level, their effect on localized demand issues like transformer capacity is limited. Automated charging of PEVs based on TOU rates essentially creates a new spike in demand at the beginning of the off-peak period. This spike looks marginal at the grid level, but can be fairly drastic at the transformer feeding a cluster of PEVs.

Leading Edge

Thus, utilities, electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) manufacturers, and EVSE service providers are looking to create more dynamic and advanced PEV charging schemes to manage charging at all levels of the grid. Greenlots, for example, recently announced its partnership with EVSE LLC to demonstrate the company’s SKY Smart Charging system in 80 Level 2 workplace chargers at SCE facilities. The SCE project will examine how PEV owners respond to demand response events and dynamic pricing schemes for a number of purposes, including mitigating local transformer issues.

Outside of California, other PEV markets are expanding, too; utilities in these areas will need to begin testing and implementing similar technologies and programs soon. Companies competing for utility services in California now will be well served by expansion elsewhere and likely represent the leading edge of charging services development for years to come.

 

Finding a Pathway to Profit for EV Charging

— February 24, 2015

The question of whether it’s possible to make a profit from a public charging station continues to hang over the electric vehicle (EV) charging industry. The challenges are threefold:

  • The costs of the EV charger and installation, which remain fairly high.
  • The utilization rate; i.e., how many plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are actually using the chargers each day.
  • The question of what PEV drivers are willing to pay for the charging.

Level 2 charging is still the most widespread type of installation deployed in public charging, and a back-of-the-envelope payback model shows that it is possible to receive a reasonable return on investment (ROI) for a Level 2 charger with high utilization and the right price point. A networked Level 2 charger with two plugs typically costs around $5,000–$6,500. Installation costs vary significantly, but can easily double the upfront investment by the site host. Operating costs are actually quite low. The electricity used is not a major cost factor, even at a relatively high cost of $0.13 per kWh (as in California, for instance). Typically, the site host will pay monthly services fees to a network operator. In some cases, it will share revenue with the operator, as well.

Just in Case

It’s important to note that there are only so many hours in the day that a public charger is going to be both accessible and likely to be used. If a dual public charger can reach utilization of around 10 charging sessions per day, and charge $2 per session, the host could make back the initial investment in 5 to 6 years.

This picture is a little rosier than the reality today, simply because the current rate of usage of public chargers is nowhere near 10 charging sessions daily. Nevertheless, this simple ROI model demonstrates that there is a pathway to profit for offering public charging services. However, there is a real question as to how many drivers will be willing to pay $2 for around 20 miles of charge, which is what a typical battery electric vehicle (BEV) driver may get from a single charging session. Given that this should cost them less than a dollar when they charge at home, it’s not clear that Level 2 public charging will ever be much more than a just-in-case opportunity for drivers. This will be even more accurate as we see affordable, longer range BEVs come on the market, since the need to top up during the day will be lessened.

Keeping It Free

These economics are one reason why many businesses will continue to offer public charging as a free service, figuring that there’s more benefit from using the chargers to attract customers, and keep them shopping longer, than to collect charging fees. It’s also why public charging manufacturers are offering leasing or no money down, no interest financing to keep the upfront cost from being so daunting.

According to Navigant Research’s new report, Electric Vehicle Charging Services, global revenue from EV charging services is expected to grow from $81.1 million annually in 2014 to $2.9 billion by 2023.

Annual Revenue from EVSE Charging Services by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023

 EV Charging Services chart

(Source: Navigant Research)

EV charging is a promising new, multibillion-dollar business sector. These forecasts include revenue from DC charging, which is likely to be a more lucrative segment than Level 2. But our scenario also assumes that some public charging will remain as a free perk, rather than as a direct revenue generator, given the questions that linger about drivers’ willingness to pay for top-up Level 2 charging.

 

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