The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released figures for scheduled additions and retirements of generation resources in the United States during 2015. According to the EIA, the United States is expected to add 9.8 GW of wind, 6.3 GW of natural gas power plants, and 2.2 GW of solar—all of which make up 91% of the total 20 GW that is expected to come online this year. No coal plants are scheduled to come online this year, and 12.9 GW of coal and 1.98 GW of natural gas will be retired. Not only does this signal a shift in the U.S. energy mix, but it also indicates that there is a great deal of investment in wind, gas, solar, and even nuclear in the U.S. market. That said, 12 GW of this capacity is variable and will require some type of firming or integration. Often, this balancing is executed by gas power plants, which are more flexible than nuclear plants, for example.
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly
Note: Other renewables include hydroelectric, biomass/wood, and geothermal.
Overall, a healthy amount of capacity is slated to come online in the United States, thanks to market signals such as the Production and Investment Tax Credits. That said, what can we expect to happen in response to the difference between generation and load if the market is not encouraging investment in generation assets?
Shrinking in Texas
I learned at the ERCOT Market Summit that Texas is in a tenuous position with a current reserve margin of 15.7% in 2015 that is expected to shrink to 7.3% by 2024. The reserve margin is a reflection of a grid’s ability to cope with unpredictable but foreseeable events—such as a generator tripping offline or a sudden spike in load. These are not uncommon occurrences, but forecasting them is impossible; hence, the margin.
In Texas, the shrinking reserve margin is a function of power plant retirements and an increase in overall load. In addition, Texas is one of the most deregulated energy markets in the world. This means that it is very unlikely that the state would employ any type of market intervention, such as a mandate or a subsidy, to encourage investment. Instead, it is up the market to adapt in order to embolden the right participant behavior. So far, as evidenced by the shrinking margin, the market is not sending the right signals to encourage investment in power plants.
Markets designers in deregulated markets already looking ahead. Texas has decided against a capacity market and is instead developing reserve products for short-, medium-, and long-term reserves. These products are unlikely to offer the lucrative and consistent returns natural gas power plant developers are looking for, but they should open the door for alternative technologies, including storage.