Navigant Research Blog

Solar PV Helps Eliminate Kerosene Lamps

— August 20, 2014

About 250 million households, representing 1.3 billion people, lacked reliable access to electricity to meet basic lighting needs in 2010, according to the International Energy Agency.  Until recently, kerosene lamps were one of the few options for illumination in communities with household income as low as $2 per day.  Kerosene is highly detrimental to health and the environment, subjecting people to multiple pollutants, including fine particulate matter, formaldehyde, carbon monoxide, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides.  Exposure to these pollutants can result in an increased risk of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and death.  Despite these hazards, kerosene is the leading source of illumination for most people in developing countries.

There’s now growing momentum to displace the estimated 4 billion to 25 billion liters of kerosene used each year, driven by a combination of government policy, clean energy businesses, and investment.  Kenya, Ghana, India, and Nigeria are a few of the countries that have announced initiatives to phase out kerosene and replace it with solar and other clean energy options, as covered in Navigant Research’s report, Solar Photovoltaic Consumer Products.

  • Kenya’s kerosene phase-out program, announced in 2012, aims to eliminate the use of kerosene for lighting and cooking, replacing the fuel with clean energy products.  Norway has pledged $44.5 million toward the initiative.
  • India’s National Solar Mission seeks to achieve 20 GW of solar power by 2022, in part through the installation of rooftop PV systems.  It has also set the specific goal of providing 20 million solar lighting systems in place of kerosene lamps to rural communities, with the goal of reaching an estimated 100 million people.
  • The Ghana Solar Lantern Distribution project provides subsidies to support sales of 200,000 solar lanterns between 2014 and 2016, using money formerly allocated for fuel subsidies.

Kerosene remains the most important lighting fuel for off-grid and under-electrified households and small businesses in Africa, and accounts for approximately 55% of total lighting expenditure for those living on less than $2 per day, according to Lighting Africa.  Kerosene has been increasing as a percentage of household expenditure.  Ted Hesser developed the following chart with data from the United Nations, Saviva Research, World Bank, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration, highlighting the growth in kerosene prices.  Between 2000 and 2012, kerosene prices increased 240% in the developing world, from an average price of roughly $0.50 per liter in 2000 to about $1.20 per liter in 2012.  In high-cost markets – including Burundi, Guatemala, and Panama –  kerosene costs can be as high as $1.80 to $2.10 per liter.

Price of Kerosene by Country, Selected World Markets: 2000-2012

 

(Source: Ted Hesser)

Beyond CO2

The climate impact of kerosene lamps has been dramatically underestimated by considering only CO2.  Recent studies estimate that 270,000 tons of black carbon (i.e., fine particulate matter that results from the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuel, and biomass) are emitted from kerosene lamps annually – leading to a warming equivalent of about 4.5% of U.S. CO2 emissions and 12% of India’s, according to a Brookings Institute study.

The Brookings study points out that kerosene lamps are not the largest emitters of black carbon.  The leading source is residential burning of solid fuel, such as wood and coal for cooking – which emits six times more black carbon than lamps.  Similarly, diesel engine black carbon emissions are five times that of lamps.

Solar PV and other lower-emission consumer products, such as improved cookstoves, are making their way to the market through a variety of private, non-profit, and public initiatives.  Education and awareness of the options available to consumers are the biggest challenges to changing the behavior of customers in remote communities.  But the combination of new business models, government leadership, and technical innovation are leading to a growing number of success stories that could lead to significant reductions in black carbon emissions.

 

With Developer Program, Nest Raises Questions

— June 30, 2014

This week Nest Labs introduced its Nest Developer Program, which integrates smart devices for both home and lifestyle uses.  The results suggest that energy efficiency is going mainstream without most people even knowing it.  This program, which has already enrolled partners such as Mercedes-Benz, Whirlpool, Jawbone (UP24 maker), LIFX, and Logitech, allows communications between smart devices in order to influence and optimize their overall functionality.  For example, the Nest thermostat could receive better information on a homeowner’s sleep/wake cycle, whereabouts, and habits from data transmitted through the UP24 bracelet.  It can then incorporate this information into its intelligent algorithm for determining household heating and cooling patterns.

But that’s only a small part of it.  Nest has already taken a stab at utility-scale demand response (DR) through its Rush Hour Rewards program for climate control, but the program can now enroll other energy-heavy appliances, such as washers and dryers, in the same DR events.  Following device trends in electric vehicle charging, where smart communications are increasingly integrated and relied upon, it’s fair to speculate that this type of developer program has the potential to solve a lot of the problems utilities are currently facing as growing renewables penetration causes instability along the distribution grid.

Privacy Pushback

The potential to optimize energy usage will grow significantly as cloud-based home energy management advances technologically and adds functionality.  But the market is likely to experience setbacks as privacy issues are raised.  Nest and Apple have both created privacy guidelines for data as it is communicated between devices, but protection and control over this information will still be an issue for customers.  As public utilities incorporate software platforms for managing connected devices, it’s unlikely they will be able to avoid the type of pushback (seen here, here, and here) that has hindered the deployment of smart meters.

Another question inherent in this move to a connected life is how the interaction between devices and software will take shape.  Nest and its associated partners have built value propositions off the premium quality of their networked thermostats and the software that controls them.  But competitors like EcoFactor and EnergyHub build value off the ability be flexible in the devices they connect to – asking if premium devices are really all that necessary to realize the same gains.  When you involve multiple customer demographics (with different levels of income and values) and budget-conscious public organizations, different needs and limitations will require different solutions.  There’s no denying that people become emotionally connected to well-made, well-designed hardware – and they will pay a premium for it.  But, as the cellphone industry has shown, there are limitations in terms of hardware development.  So how long will the novelty last for thermostats?

 

Honeywell’s Lyric Intensifies Smart Thermostat Competition

— June 11, 2014

Honeywell has introduced a new Wi-Fi-connected smart thermostat called Lyric, a device squarely aimed at taking on Google’s popular Nest thermostat in the home automation arms race.

The new device looks similar to Nest’s: round, glossy, and with a modern digital interface – though Honeywell would say it hasn’t copied Nest (something the two have argued about in court) – the Lyric updates its iconic Round thermostat, first introduced in 1953.

The new Lyric thermostat is smartphone-centric and will work with iOS or Android devices.  It uses a homeowner’s smartphone location as the cue for adjusting the temperature set point.  For example, when a homeowner leaves the house with smartphone in hand, the Lyric device can automatically enter an energy-saving mode.  Similarly, as the homeowner and smartphone return, the Lyric thermostat senses the proximity and can either heat or cool the house to the preferred temperature.  This technology is called geofencing – using a device’s location to trigger events.

Under the hood, the Lyric thermostat software makes automatic adjustments using an algorithm based on indoor temperature, local outdoor weather conditions, and humidity.  This functionality, dubbed Fine Tune, endeavors to provide the most comfortable temperatures in an automated fashion.  In a dig at Nest, which emphasizes its learning capabilities, Honeywell notes the Lyric thermostat does not have to learn any patterns; it merely adjusts to homeowner activity.

Game On

Honeywell has provided energy-savings guidelines for Lyric owners in the United States.  Estimated annual savings by region are: $26 to $150 in the West; $133 to $173 in the Midwest; $31 to $143 in the South, and $130 to $221 in the Northeast.

The retail price for Lyric is $279, meaning it will compete at the high end of the market, like Nest.  The Lyric thermostat is available now through Honeywell’s network of heating and cooling contractors, and is expected to be in retail stores starting in August.  The new thermostat is the first in a family of connected home products Honeywell plans to launch under the Lyric name.

With this device, Honeywell has upped its game against Google/Nest.  Given its strong brand and equally strong distribution channel, Honeywell should be able to at least dent some of the momentum Nest has generated in the past few years since its launch.  And, more than likely, Google will counter with product upgrades of its own.  The competition should be good for consumers, giving them choices for a smart thermostat that meets their needs.  Moreover, competition won’t be limited to these two U.S. players.  Germany-based startup tado° has been active in Europe with its hardware-software temperature control system.  The company recently reached its $200,000 target through a Kickstarter campaign to launch its new air conditioning control product.  It also plans to adapt both its heating and cooling products to be compatible with Apple’s forthcoming HomeKit platform.

The smart thermostat arms race is on.

 

Internet of Things Reaches the Smart Home

— June 9, 2014

In the last several years, a lot of online buzz has promoted the Internet of Things (IoT), much of it centered on connecting more devices in the home, with a particular emphasis on enhancing energy efficiency.

And nothing gets the blogosphere more amped up than an announcement from Apple, which unveiled its HomeKit home automation software framework during its latest annual Apple Worldwide Developers Conference.   HomeKit is the underlying technology that will enable users to connect in-home devices like light bulbs, appliances, and thermostats with iPhones and iPads.

Energy Aware

Apple aside, there are other significant developments surrounding the IoT and smarter homes.  For instance, the Consumer Electronics Association recently approved a new standard (CEA-2047/CE-Energy Usage Information) that would give users a more detailed picture of device-specific energy consumption.  Though not mandatory for CE device makers, the new standard sets up a framework for manufacturers to provide energy consumption data that could be fed to an energy management system or to an application and present it to consumers on TVs, PCs, or mobile devices.  In essence, the standard enables devices to be energy self-aware and share that energy data with other devices.  The new standard is also compatible with the Green Button initiative, an industry-led move to provide utility customers easier access to their energy consumption data.

Not all of the action in this field is in the United States.  In Europe, energy provider Vattenfall has partnered with Deutsche Telekom (DT) to offer a new smart home software platform to its customers for controlling their lighting, heating, and appliances from PCs, smartphones, or tablet devices.  The platform, developed by German startup GreenPocket, is already used as the basis for a home automation and security system called Qivicon that DT sells to its customers.  DT, which controls mobile carrier T-Mobile USA, has plans to bring the Qivicon product to the United States and the United Kingdom.

Still a Few Glitches in the System

Clearly, the IoT has begun to move beyond early concept to actual in-home devices and systems that provide automation and energy efficiency.  Machine-to-machine activity working in the background is a reality.  My own experience with connected devices, though, has been somewhat underwhelming.  I have a Nest thermostat, and I’ve installed a few Philips Hue LED light bulbs that can be controlled from my smartphone.  While the Hue bulbs are cool and all, they aren’t all that great.  The original software was awful, and the third-party app I bought isn’t much better.  The thermostat works fine, but the energy savings have been elusive, as I’ve previously mentioned.   Plus there are downsides to a more connected home, as The New York Times’ Nick Bilton pointed out in his piece on the dark side of IoT.  And even simple problems expose the weaknesses in the system; my wireless router was replaced recently, and for a time the thermostat was offline until I set up the new WPA2 passcode.  Not a big problem in the warmer days of spring, but what if there is an outage during a cold snap or while we’re away on vacation?

So, while the geek inside me longs to embrace this move to the IoT and the greater efficiency, the reality is we are only at the quarter-mile mark into a marathon, and there will be more bumps along this road.

 

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