Navigant Research Blog

New Zealand Street Lighting Updates Could Make for an Attractive Market

— May 5, 2015

New Zealand lighting designer Bryan King estimates that his country is roughly 5 years behind the United States in terms of upgrading street light infrastructure from high-pressure sodium (HPS) to light-emitting diode (LED). Recent developments and a successful Road Lighting conference, however, may help close that gap quickly or even put the small country in the lead. This makes for an interesting case study in how a smaller market can rapidly shift from one technology to another, undergoing the process at a much faster rate than larger markets are capable of doing.

Favorable Factors

According to Navigant Research’s Smart Street Lighting report, there are an estimated 370,000 street lights installed in New Zealand. This represents a small fraction of the installed base of the United States and other large countries, making the challenge of upgrading far less daunting. Another significant factor that this country has in its favor is that municipal lighting is generally owned by the municipality, rather than by a utility that may not have a financial incentive to reduce electricity consumption, especially during nighttime hours. In addition, 50% of funding for street lighting comes from the NZ Transport Agency. This government agency has recently stipulated that its funding must be spent on LED lights and not on older lamp technologies. That alone will spur retrofit projects and likely means that no new HPS luminaires will be purchased.

The recently held Road Lighting 2015 conference is also expected to drive adoption of both LED street lighting and networked street lighting control. The conference organizers were able to gather representatives from a significant portion of the country’s municipalities, who then learned from city managers and other experts from around the world who have already implemented LED and controls projects. While decision makers in the United States often seem reluctant to draw on international experiences, decision makers in New Zealand were quite eager to benefit from the lessons learned by their peers around the globe.

Road Lighting

A significant focus of the Road Lighting conference was on the use of networked controls to deliver advanced control features to street lighting systems. As discussed in Smart Street Lighting, networked systems are being adopted in ever growing numbers around the world, but many municipalities have upgraded to LEDs without also adding controls. A new and widely adopted American National Standards Institute (ANSI) standard (136.41) means that adding controls after a luminaire has been installed is relatively simple, but it still involves physically accessing every single street light. Thus, it entails a cost and effort that deters many municipalities. New Zealand is in an excellent position to take advantage of the benefits of both LEDs and controls, installing both of these now maturing technologies at the same time to reduce costs.

It is yet to be seen just how quickly New Zealand will adopt LED street lighting and networked lighting control. The City of Auckland has announced plans to switch all of its lights to LEDs in the next 5 years, and the timeline is expected to be similar for other cities and only slightly slower for smaller municipalities. So, while the total market size is modest, the rapid changeover when conditions are ripe can still make a small market attractive to international manufacturers.


Indoor Farms Glow With LEDs

— March 4, 2015

Have you noticed that old factory on the edge of town glowing with new life? Perhaps there isn’t one near you yet, but early results from the new science of light-emitting diode (LED) farming are so promising that you may see one soon. Unlike traditional lights used for indoor agriculture (usually high-pressure sodium), LEDs emit very little heat. This allows the lights to be placed much closer to the plants, multiplying the capacity of an indoor facility. The lights also use less energy, and perhaps more importantly, they can be tuned to provide just the right wavelengths of light to maximize growth for individual plant species and further reduce electrical waste. The overall increase in efficiency and production is helping fuel what some believe will be a new boom in indoor agriculture.

The whole concept is quite appealing. In a world with rising water shortages, indoor agriculture can be much more water efficient. In a polluted world, this type of farming creates no runoff of fertilizers and pesticides into our rivers and oceans. And in a world with an ever-thickening greenhouse blanket, indoor farming (although it uses artificial light, rather than the free light provided by the sun) also eliminates thousands of miles of refrigerated transportation.

Pot to Plate

Thanks to the efficiency of the LEDs providing that artificial light, the overall energy consumption from pot to plate can be reduced. Navigant Research will be researching and publishing a report on the growing use of LEDs for this type of farming in second quarter of this year.

It is, at this point, commonly known that LEDs are a more efficient light source. Examples like this, however, show that efficiency isn’t the only difference. Low heat emission and the ability to tune wavelengths are enabling this boom in indoor agriculture. That same color tuning ability is also starting to be used for the light we shine on ourselves in offices and other buildings, providing the right qualities for the right times of day and improving productivity and health. The long lifespan of LEDs is doing away with the concept of separate lamps and luminaires. The ability to arrange LEDs into thin and flexible panels is allowing for fixture designs that were never before possible, and just might revolutionize the way we supply light to our built environment. All this from a still newly affordable light source. What other changes might LEDs bring as bright minds take advantage of all the unique properties of a light source that requires neither a filament nor a tube of gas?


Solar Market for Base of Pyramid Not So Pico

— April 14, 2014

In an upcoming report on pico solar lighting products (<10W) and solar home systems (<200W) sold primarily to rural communities in Africa and Asia, I cover the unit sales, revenue, and capacity of these small solar photovoltaic systems globally.  One of the most important trends covered in the report is that pico solar has transitioned from a humanitarian aspiration to big business – more than $100 million in 2014.  Corporate involvement in rural electrification has traditionally come in the form of corporate social responsibility initiatives, but real money is now flowing to solar companies serving the base of the pyramid market.  The success of a number of off-grid solar lighting companies and social enterprises has attracted interest from major corporations such as Panasonic, Schneider Electric, and Philips, as well as funding from investors.  Some of the more notable investments include:

  • In early 2014, d.light raised $11 million in Series C funding from DFJ, Omidyar Network, Nexus India Capital, Gray Ghost Ventures, Acumen Fund, and Garage Technology Ventures.  The company is one of the leading pico solar manufacturers, and has now raised $40 million and sold an estimated 6 million pico solar systems reaching 30 million people.
  • In early 2014, Persistent Energy Partners acquired Impact Energies, a pay-as-you-go, off-grid solar service provider working in West Africa that has reached 30,000 customers since 2011.  The renamed company, Persistent Energy Ghana, installs village solar microgrids and solar home systems.
  • In late 2013, Khosla Impact invested $1.8 million in a Series A round with BBOXX, a U.K.-based company that sells portable solar kits ranging from 7W to 185W and plug-and-play solar systems that range between 2 kW and 4 kW.  The company also provides a mobile pay-as-you-go service enabled by remote battery monitoring, which was the primary interest of Khosla.
  • In 2012, Greenlight Planet, one of the leading designers and distributors of solar light-emitting diode home lights, raised $4 million from Bamboo Finance and Dr. P.K. Sinha, co-founder of ZS Associates.  The investment followed previous financing by Dr. Sinha.  Greenlight Planet has sold more than 1.8 million solar lamps since the company was founded in 2008.
  • In 2012, Barefoot Power, one of the largest pico solar manufacturers, raised $5.3 million from three social investment funds (d.o.b. Foundation, ennovent, and Insitor Fund), existing shareholders (The Grace Foundation and Oikocredit Ecumenical Development Cooperative), and a number of private angel investors.

The full report will be released in the next few weeks.  It will discuss industry market drivers and challenges, and includes more than 20 company profiles and country-specific forecasts from 2014 to 2024.


LED Revolution Rises in the West

— March 17, 2013

The market for light-emitting diodes (LEDs) has reached the turning point from “promising technology” to “practical mainstream solution.”  The replacement of 125-plus years of vacuum tube lighting by LEDs seems as inevitable as the transition from TV tubes to flat screen LED monitors, though it won’t happen nearly as quickly.  But even as we witness this shift, I wonder if we really perceive the revolution taking place.

That revolution was evident at last month’s Strategies in Light conference, in Santa Clara, which focused on LED  technologies and, more specifically, LEDs applied to lighting applications.  Since this year marks the 50th anniversary of the invention of the visible LED, the program included an awards ceremony honoring industry pioneers Nick Holonyak Jr., M. George Craford, Roland Haitz, and Shuji Nakamura.  It was a rare window into history.

The conference also demonstrated that LED lighting R&D activity is overwhelmingly focused on achieving some degree of parity with conventional lighting in terms of light quality and cost, while still delivering on the energy efficiency and long life-cycle potential of LEDs.  Just as anyone seeking “plain white paint” is confronted by thousands of options at their neighborhood paint shop, “white light” is far from a neutral, standard attribute for lighting.  How a given light source’s color temperature maps against the standard Planck curve is just the beginning of a light quality assessment.  The facts are that LED lighting can be made very efficient, have good light quality, last a very long time, and be cost-effective.  But it’s exceedingly rare that all four of these goals are met simultaneously in a given application. Hence there’s much work to be done, justifying the focus on achieving parity and conventional lamp replacement.

Beyond Tubes

Beyond the focus on parity and replacement, however, are opportunities that are potentially much more transformative. Although the transistor radios of my youth seemed a major innovation compared with the vacuum-tube radios of a decade earlier, the real power of transistors came in the form of integrated circuits that unleashed a much larger information and communications revolution.  In a presentation titled “The Next Evolution of Lighting,” Brad Koerner, director of experience design at Philips Lighting, showed how LEDs are ushering in a new paradigm for lighting design, controllability, and occupant experience.  LED lighting form factors that mimic fluorescent tubes might make sense for today’s lamp replacement market, but they’ll probably look silly in retrospect when lighting is integrated into the very surfaces of next-generation buildings.  Today’s lighting programmability essentially means on, off, or dim – but what happens when lighting color temperature is also programmable, allowing sunlight’s subtle differences by time of day, season, or geographic location to be carried indoors to our work and living spaces?

We are only at the cusp of these revolutions today.  In the meantime, all those concerned with smart buildings, from architects to facility managers, should balance their healthy skepticism with a dreamer’s wonder at what may soon be.


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