Navigant Research Blog

Postcard from Puerto Rico

— November 1, 2017

It has been more than a month since Hurricane Maria swept through Puerto Rico. The majority of this US territory remains without reliable electricity and is facing a crisis of unprecedented proportions. The lack of power in Puerto Rico, as well as the hurricanes that struck Florida and Texas, have turned up the heat on utilities, regulators, and the federal government regarding how best to rebuild power grids for greater resilience to protect against future outages during natural disasters.

While companies such as Tesla proclaim that Puerto Rico provides the perfect opportunity to deploy solar PV plus energy storage microgrids to rebuild regional power supplies, others argue the quickest way for restoration lies with fixing the traditional hub-and-spoke centralized transmission grid. Where does the truth stand? As is often the case, somewhere between these two extremes. Though I personally would invest more heavily into microgrids, I would not restrict them to solar energy because hurricanes can both damage and limit power production. Nonetheless, wind-powered mobile microgrids were part of the immediate response, smart dual-fuel generators should also be vital parts of the microgrid solution mix.

Can Lessons from the Military Rebuild Puerto Rico?

There are some important lessons that Puerto Rico can benefit from if it listens to the US military, a key responder to the crisis in Puerto Rico.

As I noted in a recent blog, the US Department of Defense (DOD) and data centers have been wrestling with how to maintain uptime while scaling back its reliance upon diesel generation. In a new Navigant Research white paper sponsored by Schneider Electric, I argue that innovative business models, such as microgrids as a service, may be the ticket to transforming industries reluctant to embrace distributed energy resources (DER) innovations. Likewise, military bases are following similar pathways forward, eliminating capital costs and financing upgrades through energy efficiency savings. Case in point is the Marine Corps Logistics Base in Albany, Georgia, which is the DOD’s first net zero energy military base.

The military microgrid market was viewed as an early adopter before budget issues helped stall the market. While a uniquely US market in terms of adoption for stationary bases, its effect is global since the DOD has sites scattered across the globe. Forward operating bases and mobile tactical microgrids can operate as standalone systems or interconnect with traditional grids and have been featured in recent conflicts in both Afghanistan and Iraq. A new report from Navigant Research notes that momentum for DOD microgrids is picking up.

Military Technology – Civilian Implications

The DOD has played a remarkably consistent role in commercializing new technologies that provide tremendous social benefits within the larger civilian realm. The Internet, created by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) in 1969, is perhaps the most ubiquitous of the DOD’s contributions to consumer markets. Along with accelerating the commercialization of traditional manufactured products such as aircraft, the DOD has also pushed the envelope on IT. These advances have been vital to all smart grid platforms, including microgrids.

Hurricanes and related rain and wind do pose challenges to all forms of power supply, including microgrids. Yet, developing a distributed and diverse portfolio of resources is always the best bet, whether one is talking about the wholesale or retail delivery system (note that Cuba’s reliance on microgrids limits outages compared to its Caribbean neighbors). While the Trump administration favors traditional energy pathways, the DOD has forged new ground in DER. One option for Puerto Rico could be to carve out a lead role for the DOD in rebuilding its power system, showcasing lessons learned from both domestic bases and remote power bolstering national security, while at the same time delivering the humanitarian services so direly needed by the local population.

 

Data Centers and Military Microgrids: The Diesel Dilemma

— October 20, 2017

If something isn’t broken, why try to fix it? This kind of thinking sums up the perspective of many owners and operators of data centers. If they feel comfortable with the technology or solution that has been in place for quite some time, the incentive to enact something new and different is small. As a result, to maintain power for mission-critical loads, data centers have historically relied upon diesel generators linked to lead-acid batteries and (perhaps) dual feeds from two different utilities.

The Uptime Institute has created de facto data center industry standards that range from Tier I to Tier IV, with the latter representing the highest possible resilience. “Human beings have an almost emotional attachment to their diesel generators, as they give data center owners and operators both comfort and a form of insurance,” observed Chris Brown, CTO for the Uptime Institute. He does not see a decline in reliance upon diesel generators. According to Brown, “Engine generator usage will likely hang on, as the emotional tie and the form of insurance will still be present.”

Despite these insights, new data highlights how existing power infrastructure does carry risks for data centers. The average power outage cost for a data center in 2015 was $740,357—a 38% increase in the cost of downtime compared to 2010. Perhaps the most disturbing statistic found in Eaton’s Blackout Tracker Annual Report for 2016 is that the increase in maximum downtime costs rose to $2.4 million.

Military Base Parallels

One analogy to the challenge facing data centers is military bases in the United States. A typical large-scale military base may feature from 100 to 350 backup diesel generators, each hardwired to a single building. In many instances, they are sized at more than 200% of each building’s peak load as a contingency for energy security. Just a simple networking of existing diesel generators into a microgrid can offer cost savings for military microgrids and data centers alike.

A study by Pew Charitable Trusts found, for example, that creating a microgrid instead of relying upon standalone backup diesel generators reduces the cost of resilience by $1 billion or more. Note that the savings vary by region, with the greatest savings for those military microgrids deployed in the PJM Interconnection transmission control area. Yet, when displacing diesel backup generators with 50% diesel/natural gas fuel hybrid microgrid, California military bases boast the largest net savings. With a 50/50 portfolio of diesel/natural gas, microgrids in the PJM territory and the Southeast ironically show an increase in cost on a dollar-per-kilowatt basis if compared to the current reliance upon diesel backup generators. This is largely a result of low diesel fuel prices in those parts of the country, and it arguably points to the need to diversify power generation sources with a microgrid beyond fossil fuels.

Annual Net Cost of Protection ($/kW of Critical Load)

(Sources: Noblis, The Pew Charitable Trusts)

A new report by Navigant Research, Military Microgrids, notes that a key to innovation lies in new business models. The same could also be said for data centers. Data centers like to control their own destiny, which often means they want to own infrastructure. Yet, just like solar leases and third-party power purchase agreements accelerated the solar PV industry at a critical point in time in its development path, similar models could also bring microgrids into the mainstream.

Does such an approach hold promise for state-of-the-art data center microgrids? Schneider Electric would like to find out. Learn more at the upcoming webinar on October 24.

 

Innovative Business Models Required to Drive Microgrids for Resilience

— October 17, 2017

The devastation caused by recent hurricanes in the Caribbean and southern United States has focused attention on the potential benefits of microgrids and local power generation. With widespread power outages and major damage to grid infrastructure, the opportunity to rebuild electrical systems with a more distributed and resilient architecture has never been clearer. Navigant Research’s new report Energy Storage for Microgrids highlights some the developments taking place in this emerging market along with the challenges that must be overcome to capitalize on the full potential of these technologies. The report explores innovations in business models that will be key to the growth of microgrids and distributed energy over the coming years, particularly in markets with significant financial constraints.

Protecting and Improving

Microgrids equipped with distributed energy storage, solar PV, and other forms of distributed generation can greatly enhance the resilience of the electrical system by preventing damage to a single portion of the grid from causing massive outages. This capability would be especially beneficial for islands such as Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, which face frequent hurricanes capable of destroying transmission and distribution lines. In a centralized grid system, although power plants may still be operational after a storm, the energy they generate will be unable to reach customers. Microgrids with localized energy storage and generation are less susceptible to storm damage and can be brought back online more quickly, without damage in one area preventing service from being restored elsewhere. Furthermore, under normal conditions, microgrids provide numerous benefits to the grid by operating both independently and in a coordinated fashion to maximize the use of renewable energy without affecting grid stability.

Leveraging Financial Innovation to Drive Growth

Since microgrids are a relatively new technology platform, two major challenges that hold back new projects are the limited number of standardized solutions (despite some early plug-and-play offerings) and the limited financing options that reduce upfront investments and risks for customers. In the case of Puerto Rico and other islands with significant financial constraints, innovative business models will be critical for microgrids to spread.

Business model and financing innovations have been key drivers of growth in the solar PV industry over the past decade. Many of these same concepts are being applied to microgrid and distributed energy storage projects with the goal of negating the perceived risk of investing in new technologies. Some of the new models shifting risk and upfront investment away from customers include: power purchase agreements and leases with owner financing, software, energy as a service, and design, build, operate, and own models. New business models are being driven by the growing number of companies that leverage their backgrounds to provide microgrid solutions, including utility subsidiaries, energy service and technology providers, solar PV developers, and building energy management and controls providers.

Creating Opportunities

While the distributed energy industry races to help communities recover from recent disasters, it is critical that new technologies capable of reducing the effect of future storms be implemented. However, overcoming the lack of familiarity with these new systems and relatively high upfront costs will be a major challenge. The most successful companies in this industry will be those that can unlock the potential of new business and financing models to reduce the risk and upfront costs to customers. This ability to leverage private investment in infrastructure will be particularly important as countries with limited resources look to recover from massive damage while preventing similar issues in the future. In a webinar later this month, Navigant Research will explore the role of microgrids for improving resilience in another high profile area: data centers.

 

Energy Storage to Optimize and Advance CHP Generators

— August 31, 2017

Energy storage is often associated only with the integration of renewable energy. However, recent market developments have highlighted the potential for storage to optimize both existing and new fossil fueled generators. While large-scale pumped hydro energy storage has been used on the grid for decades, those systems were rarely tied directly to any generation plants. A recent storage project built by General Electric in California is evidence that the falling costs for battery storage are opening opportunities to improve the efficiency and flexibility of existing generators.

There are attractive advantages for energy storage to optimize generators at a smaller scale. Gas-powered combined heat and power (CHP) systems are becoming increasingly popular due to the improved efficiency these systems offer customers that need a reliable supply of both heat and electricity. Because of the varying energy needs of these customers and the dynamics of CHP systems operation, there is frequently an overgeneration of either electricity or heat. This energy is often wasted, as establishing contracts that export excess energy is costly and challenging. Both thermal and electrical energy storage systems can greatly reduce wasted energy when tied to CHP systems and can provide attractive ROI for customers.

Industry Actions

Several recent acquisitions in the industry have emphasized this dynamic. In a recent blog, my colleague Adam Forni discusses these developments and the efforts of generator manufacturers to expand their offerings and participate in the emerging Energy Cloud. Notable recent investments in storage providers include Wärtsilä’s purchase of Greensmith and Aggreko’s acquisition of Younicos.

In both cases, incumbent generator providers moved to acquire storage companies focused on the software and controls required to optimize storage systems and integrate them into electricity markets. These tie-ups are mutually beneficial, as the storage providers gain access to new sales channels and potential new customers. The generator providers are likely focusing on developing the capabilities to integrate storage into their offerings and utilize new combined solutions to provide energy and capacity services in competitive electricity markets. The additional revenue generated by these grid services can greatly improve the overall economics of new storage and microgrid projects, including those that expand the capabilities of existing generators.

Into the Future  

The move toward microgrids and local power systems to improve the resilience of energy supply is an important driver for the integration of energy storage with conventional generators. Navigant Research’s recent Market Data: Combined Heat and Power in Microgrids report anticipates that 11.3 GW of new CHP capacity will be added in microgrids around the world over the next decade. The addition of these systems presents a major opportunity for both thermal and electrical energy storage to improve overall efficiency. Through the integration of energy storage and the sophisticated software platforms used to connect to energy markets, large amounts of new distributed energy capacity will become available on the grid.

 

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