Navigant Research Blog

Negawatt Leadership in the Pacific Northwest

— November 24, 2015

In the Northwest, one of the most important and influential energy stakeholders is the Northwest Power Conservation Council (NWPCC). The 1980 Northwest Power Act authorized Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington to develop a regional power plan and fish and wildlife program to balance the Northwest’s environment and energy needs. The heart of the NWPCC’s mission is to preserve the benefits of the Columbia River—which is home to more than 40% of total U.S. hydroelectricity—for future generations. The NWPCC develops a plan, updated every 5 years, to ensure the region’s power supply and to acquire cost-effective energy efficiency. The process relies on broad public participation to inform the plan and build consensus on its recommendations. While not statutorily obligated to comply directly with the plan, utilities generally follow its spirit, which is often in the public’s interest financially and is also a key enabler for utilities to meet their renewable portfolio targets.

Excerpts from the Plan

It is frequently pointed out that energy efficiency is almost always the lowest cost option for procuring new power, and the NWPCC upholds this with the release of each power plan. Take, for example, the following two excerpts from the most recently released Draft Seventh Power Plan. The first highlights exactly how cost-effective energy efficiency is in the Northwest and emphasizes why the region has flourishing energy efficiency solutions providers:

 “In more than 90 percent of future conditions, cost-effective efficiency met all electricity load growth through 2035. It’s not only the single largest contributor to meeting the region’s future electricity needs, it’s also the single largest source of new winter peaking capacity.”

The second excerpt illustrates the powerful combination of natural gas displacing coal and energy efficiency:

“A key question for the plan was how the region could lower power system carbon dioxide emissions and at what costs. The Council’s modeling found that without additional carbon control policies, carbon dioxide emissions from the Northwest power system are forecast to decrease from about 55 million metric tons in 2015 to around 34 million metric tons in 2035, the result of retiring the Centralia, Boardman, and North Valmy coal plants by 2026; using existing natural gas-fired generation to replace them; and developing about 4,500 average megawatts of energy efficiency by 2035, which should meet all forecast load growth over that time frame.”

The following chart is from the Draft Seventh Power Plan showing new resource development for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Montana.

Seventh Power Plan Resource Portfolio

Dexter Blog(Source: Northwest Power & Conservation Council)

The 5-year plan is not a cure-all, and is not even technically enforceable, but it does highlight the unique attributes of the Pacific Northwest, not only from a natural resource perspective, but also from a cultural perspective. Though maybe not as flashy as its regional counterparts in California, the network of negawatt providers in the region (ranging from the NWPCC down to the actual implementers) have done a remarkable job at realizing the potential of energy efficiency today and at embedding these solutions into the future.


Hawaii Axes Net Metering as PV Surges

— November 11, 2015

While most utilities are just beginning to adapt to the challenges presented by large-scale solar integration, the state of Hawaii has been at the forefront of this issue for some time. Hawaii is in the midst of a residential solar revolution, and with PV now sitting atop 12% of rooftops in the state, it has the highest PV penetration rate in the nation. While this presents an array of benefits, utilities are also being confronted with increased costs and decreased revenue streams. As these challenges and opportunities continue to grow, Hawaii may present itself as a case study in adaptive solar policy.

Earlier this month, the Hawaii Public Utilities Commission (HPUC) issued a ruling that closed Hawaii Electric Companies’ (HECO) net metering program to new applicants. Current customers and those awaiting approval are still eligible for the program, while new customers will be offered alternatives in the form of a grid-supply or self-supply system. A grid-supply system operates essentially as a discounted net metering rate, while the self-supply system is intended for residences that will consume all of their solar electricity and thus will receive an expedited interconnection review. The HPUC also ruled that HECO companies must pursue a time-of-use (TOU) tariff that would allow for variable electricity pricing. TOU pricing offers advantages to both utilities and consumers alike as it provides a financial incentive for customers to shift their energy consumption patterns, and in turn alleviates pressure on the grid.

Hawaii as a Template

This ruling has received mixed reviews across the industry. While some solar proponents have criticized the decision—including the Hawaii Solar Energy Association—others, such as the Solar Energy Industry Association, have highlighted the uniquely high penetration rate in Hawaii as warranting rate changes. As more homes install PV, utilities are left with a dwindling customer base to support their operations costs. According to HECO, $53 million in operations and maintenance costs were shifted to non-solar consumers in 2014. More of these policy changes should be expected as solar and other renewables move from small-scale toward large-scale integration. Policy incentives that were aimed at kick-starting these industries will likely receive pushback as renewables become more competitive in the marketplace. In the future, Hawaii may become the template for other states as they adapt to a more renewable energy based infrastructure.


A New Era of Demand Response

— November 9, 2015

Tightrope_webWhat does the future of demand response (DR) look like? Hawaii is now a test bed, guinea pig, and innovator, as you can hear during a free 30-minute discussion this Thursday.

The amount of DR capability in North America has grown considerably in the past 5 years, both at utilities and within competitive markets such as PJM. However, DR technologies and policies have generally relegated DR to a minor role as a last-called resource. DR has typically been slower to respond than combustion turbines, and the load relief it provides has been difficult to assess precisely (if at all) in the real-time operating environment in which control center staff operate. Furthermore, regulatory policies in support of DR have generally focused on the magnitude of megawatts achieved at the expense of the quality and usefulness of those megawatts. However, slowly but surely, this trend is changing.

The use of DR in grid planning and operations has solidified as utilities increasingly rely on DR to meet installed capacity requirements and sometimes even operating reserve requirements. Furthermore, independent system operators led by PJM have incorporated DR into procurement mechanisms for capacity, energy, and ancillary services. Industry acceptance of DR as an integral part of the future grid continues to grow, with states like California and New York rolling out major regulatory initiatives and utility Hawaiian Electric issuing a request for proposals to DR aggregators for the provision of grid services, including ancillary services, from demand-side resources. So which technologies and policies will drive DR into the future as a more integrated and valued resource?

The Peak Load Management Alliance (PLMA) is hosting a free webinar on November 12 at 12:30 EST to highlight the significant regulatory and utility strategy initiatives taking place in Hawaii, where massive customer investment in behind-the-meter PV is encouraging Hawaiian Electric to develop innovative uses for DR to help manage the grid in real time. This could be the future for many utilities that are only now seeing the first effects of customer investment in renewables, storage, and other distributed energy resources.

This is a follow-on discussion from a Power Engineering article by Navigant regarding how a new era of DR is blurring the lines between generation and demand-side resources in Hawaii and elsewhere. The article covered some of the emerging DR technologies that are allowing DR to be viewed more on par with generators and reviewed new applications that are raising DR’s prominence as a valued resource alternative for utilities and system operators. Looking ahead, emerging state policies and utility initiatives are driving DR to a heightened prominence that would have been difficult to envision just 5 years ago.


Buildings and Climate Change

— November 6, 2015

Telescopers_webAccording to the United Nations (UN) Environment Programme, the buildings sector is estimated to be worth 10% of global gross domestic product (GDP), or roughly $7.5 trillion. Currently, buildings consume about 40% of global energy, 25% of global water, and 60% of global electricity. Buildings also emit more than 30% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Under the business-as-usual projection accompanied by rapid urbanization, emissions caused by the buildings sector may more than double by 2050.

However, the buildings sector has among some of the most cost-effective and proven solutions for reducing energy consumption and GHG emissions. There are commercially available technologies that can reduce energy demand in buildings by 30% to 80%. Investment in building energy efficiency will lead to significant savings that will help offset incremental costs, providing a quick return on investment. Also, because existing buildings perform far below efficiency potentials in general, there are enormous opportunities for reducing energy consumption. Meanwhile, due to population growth and increasing urbanization, a new construction market is growing in developing countries, where construction activities account for up to 40% of GDP and provide opportunities for adopting energy efficient technologies.

UN Buildings Day

The buildings sector can play a critical role in mitigating climate change by reducing energy consumption and GHG emissions. Consequently, for the first time in the history of climate negotiations, a Buildings Day will be held on December 3, 2015 at the COP21 UN conference on climate change in Paris. This meeting is a mandate from the Lima-Paris Action Agenda of 2014, and it aims to discuss ways to limit global warming to a maximum of 1.5°C to 2°C. The Buildings Day at COP21 will showcase actions already taken by the buildings industry and will serve as an opportunity to encourage communications, collaboration, and implementation among various stakeholders.

In addition, a Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction consisting of governments, companies, financial institutions, organizations, academia, associations, professionals, and user networks will officially launch on that day. By putting the buildings and construction sector on the below 2°C path, the alliance commits to helping countries realize their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, which are essential drivers for achieving the ambitious global climate goal.


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