Navigant Research Blog

How Building Innovations Can Help the United States and China Tackle Climate Change

— November 17, 2014

Under the terms of the U.S.-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change, China has agreed for the first time to set a limit on the rise of its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.  As the two biggest economies in the world, the United States and China have the ultimate responsibility for leadership in tackling climate change.  The next big hurdle is driving emissions downward.  Federal regulation on climate change in the United States has been at a standstill, but elements of this agreement shed light on opportunities to reduce emissions while stimulating the economy.

We know buildings demand about 40% of all energy used in the United States, and there is a lot of room for improvement in how we live and work in buildings.  In China, the opportunities to tackle inefficient building operations are just beginning to unfold.  In fact, China’s State Council Development Research Center projects that energy efficiency in buildings could provide 25% of China’s new power needs by 2020.  The central government projects that, by 2020, 60% of the population will be urbanized and more than 1 trillion square feet of new commercial and public buildings will be added to the country’s building stock (learn more from Navigant Research’s reports, Energy Efficient Buildings Asia Pacific and Smart Cities).

Measure, Monitor, Manage, and Mitigate

As the saying goes: you can’t manage what you don’t measure.  The first big benefit of smart building technologies is insight into how your facility is operating.  In order to make improvements, you must have a baseline.  Recognizing this challenge, cities across the United States (including New York City, Seattle, and Chicago) have passed building benchmarking laws to start a new wave of energy awareness.  A wide array of smart building solutions is available to help building owners track their energy use to meet these new demands.

Smart buildings are defined by integrated and dynamic systems.  From the innovators in building energy management systems (as detailed in Navigant Research’s Leaderboard Report: Building Energy Management Systems) to advanced wireless controls for smart buildings, technology is helping building operators and decision makers shift their operations to new schemes for continuous improvement.  Smart building solutions redesign the processes for monitoring and managing systems from heating, ventilation, and air conditioning to plug loads, and in doing so, provide new ways to mitigate GHG emissions from building operations.

The development of smart buildings should be a keystone in the collaboration and innovation targets of the U.S.-China Climate Agreement, because the enabling technologies not only dramatically reduce energy consumption and GHG emissions, but make real economic sense.

 

The Dutch Blaze an EV Trail

— November 12, 2014

With the most recent alarming report on climate change from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), governments are once again faced with the question of how to develop policies to address the climate crisis.  The IPCC says that the unrestricted use of fossil fuels must be phased out by 2100.  For some governments, like in the United States, the challenge lies in even getting the public to agree there is a problem.  But even in the European Union (EU), where there is broad consensus on the need for action, it can be challenging to convert this into policies that will successfully drive down greenhouse gas emissions.

One challenge is setting appropriate and achievable targets based on clear-headed analysis, not wishful thinking.  Another challenge is then devising the right mix of carrots and sticks to allow the goal to be met.

The Right Place

The Netherlands’ electromobility initiative is one example of how to develop and implement an environmental policy effectively.  I recently had the chance to talk with a delegation from the Netherlands about the country’s push to promote plug in vehicle (PEV) adoption and its successes to date.  The first and most critical step was recognizing that the country had the right conditions for PEV adoption.  The Netherlands is a small country, densely populated and highly urbanized.   The Dutch tend to be environmentally conscious already, and the country has an extensive and stable grid network (fueled mostly by fossil fuels but with around 15% renewables).  The country also has some of the highest gas prices in Western Europe, thanks in part to the highest fuel tax in the EU.

Given these conditions, the government’s belief that PEVs could find success was well-founded.  The government has set a goal of having 200,000 PEVs in the Netherlands by 2020.  According to Navigant Research’s report, Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts, total light duty vehicle (LDV) parc (i.e., vehicles in use) in the country will be 8.6 million in 2020.  Two hundred thousand PEVs would be 2.3% of the total vehicles on the road.  That may seem small, but it’s actually an aggressive target, requiring PEVs to average more than 5% of annual LDV sales over the next 6 years.   According to Navigant Research’s PEV forecasts, only Norway, Estonia, and the Netherlands have broken 1% annual PEV sales as of 2014.

Tax Relief

The Dutch government offers significant tax incentives for PEV purchases, PEV leasing, and EV charging equipment installation.  The PEV purchase tax rebate amounts to around €7,000 to €10,000 ($8,700-$12,500).  Perhaps more important, however, is the income tax relief on private use of a company car.  A significant number of cars in use in the Netherlands are company cars or cars leased for company use.  PEVs were exempt from the income tax, saving drivers as much as $5,000 annually.

At the same time, the Dutch government provides incentives for EV charging station deployment, for public and workplace use especially.  As of October 2014, there were more than 9.5 million public charging points in the Netherlands.  The effort to roll out infrastructure is supported by Dutch energy and grid companies.

The policies have worked: as of 2014, annual PEV sales in the Netherlands amount to 4% of total LDV sales, and there are a total of more than 32,000 PEVs on Dutch roads.  Moreover, Navigant Research forecasts that the country will actually reach the 200,000 PEV goal by 2019, a year early.

The next phase for the electromobility initiative will see it moving beyond the early PEV adopter phase and promoting further EV charging station workplace and public deployments.  The country’s next target – 1 million PEVs by 2025 – will be a challenge to reach.  But the Dutch have proven that progressive policies can truly shift the vehicle market.

 

South Korea Draws an Ambitious Roadmap for Smart Grids and Smart Cities

— November 12, 2014

South Korea has ambitions to be a world leader in smart grid technology.  The smart grid test bed on Jeju Island has been the proving ground for the technologies, partnerships, and business models required to achieve this goal.  Led by Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO), South Korea’s national power company, the Jeju Island demonstration project involved a wide range of South Korean and international partners.  The project ran from December 2009 until May 2013, had a total budget of around $240 million, and included two substations, four distribution lines, and 6,000 households.  The sub-projects included power grid upgrades, demand response, electric vehicles (EVs), renewable power integration, and new energy market models.

In this regard, Jeju Island mirrors many other smart grid pilots around the world looking at the integration of multiple technologies and new business models, particularly island community smart grid projects such those in Hawaii and Bornholm.

From Islands to Cities

South Korea is different in that the government has now laid out plans to move beyond its initial demonstration project into a wider series of trials and eventually a national rollout of smart grid technologies.  The next phase will involve a series of eight smart grid/smart community projects, to be run between 2015 and 2017.  More impressively, KEPCO has laid out plans to extend these projects into a series of municipal-scale smart grids by 2020.  The final stage of this grand scheme will see smart grid technologies deployed across the whole country by 2030.

The total budget for the pilot projects is $876 million, around $400 million of which will come from central and local governments and the rest from the private sector.  KEPCO alone is investing $155 million.  The government expects the private sector to take the lead in further development from 2018 onward.  As well as smart meters, an EV charging infrastructure, and energy storage, KEPCO is piloting a smart grid station that will provide sophisticated energy management and grid integration for commercial buildings, beginning with up to 220 KEPCO buildings.  It sees these smart grid stations as building blocks for community energy management systems and city-scale energy management.

Big City Vision

These are ambitious plans, and some of the Korean experts I spoke at Korea Smart Grid Week were skeptical about the ability of the government, KEPCO, and other stakeholders to meet the proposed timescales.  However, even if those timescales prove challenging, the vision and the roadmap are impressive.  I don’t know of any other country that has laid out a plan of this magnitude that would see smart grid technologies deployed across all of its major cities by 2020.  Such an achievement really would mark South Korea out as a world leader in both smart grid and smart city infrastructure.

 

Massive Outage Highlights Bangladesh Grid’s Fragility

— November 11, 2014

On November 1, the Bangladesh power grid suffered a massive, country-wide blackout, which took well over a day to restore.  Only the most critical or prepared institutions and government agencies that had adequate diesel generation backup power had electricity, while the rest of the 160 million people in the country were totally in the dark.  The power outage brought much of normal life to a standstill, forced hospitals to rely on back-up generators, and even plunged the prime minister’s official residence into darkness.  Meanwhile, the garment industry and other manufacturers that represent 80% of Bangladesh’s exports were idled.

Initial reports suggested that the outage occurred when protective relays tripped at the interconnect substations between the India transmission grid and the Bangladesh transmission grid, where much of Bangladesh’s power is supplied.  While Power Grid of India, the India transmission grid operator, reported that its high-voltage transmission grid was operating normally, the Bangladesh Power Grid on the other side of the substation was down.  This sounds remarkably like the 2003 situation in United States, where much of the Eastern grid suffered an outage.

In the Dark

In my recent research, I have been looking into next-generation technologies and wide-area situational and visualization tools that transmission grid network operators are beginning to deploy to better anticipate and detect critical disturbances of the sort that likely led to this massive outage.  The Bangladesh outage was likely the largest on the Subcontinent since the Indian blackout in 2012, where two severe power outages affected most of northern and eastern India.  The July 31, 2012, India blackout was the largest power outage in world history, reportedly affecting over 620 million people — about 9% of the world’s population.  More than 32 GWof generating capacity went offline during this outage.

In the wake of that failure, the latest 10-year transmission plans in India call for the installation of over 1,300 synchrophasor phasor measurement units (PMUs) and associated analytics installed on India’s high-voltage transmission grid to manage sub-second disturbances.

The scope of the Bangladesh outage is yet to be determined, and it will require extensive transmission grid and generation forensic analysis, using available monitored information from the hours and minutes prior to the outage.  One can only wonder whether these next generation of PMU and synchrophasor analytics technologies, implemented on the Bangladesh side of the interconnected transmission network, could have prevented this crisis.

 

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