Navigant Research Blog

In South Korea, an Energy Storage Bonanza

— October 14, 2014

South Korea has gone from having little to no energy storage to procuring about 50 MW in the span of a few months.  This procurement makes the early projects in deregulated markets in the United States, such as PJM Interconnection, seem small in comparison.

Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) is procuring 52 MW of advanced batteries for frequency regulation in 2014 through two installations totaling 28 MW and 24 MW.  Proposals will be evaluated in the coming weeks, and four consortia, including major South Korean lithium ion (Li-ion) vendors and systems integrators, are bidding in the procurement.  Located at the West Anseong Substation and the New Yongin Substation, these installations will handle power supply to Seoul and the surrounding area.  KEPCO estimates the cost for these two projects will be ₩60 billion ($58.3 million).  The total market size for frequency regulation in South Korea is estimated by to be 1.1 GW, and in order to meet this requirement, KEPCO typically requires thermal generators hold back 5% of capacity, for which it pays them ₩600 billion ($583 million) per year.

Less Regulation = Lower Costs

Instead of using thermal generators for all its frequency regulation requirements, KEPCO estimates it can procure 500 MW of energy storage for frequency regulation for ₩625 billion ($607.8 million) between now and 2017.  By investing in these resources, KEPCO would be able to avoid a portion of the yearly payments to thermal generators.

Lessons from existing projects and market reforms in Chile and the United States suggest that these changes will have major effects on the South Korean grid.  First, wholesale energy prices should decrease once thermal generators are not obligated to hold back 5% capacity for frequency regulation.  Although KEPCO is not planning to displace its entire frequency regulation requirement with Li-ion batteries, releasing half the power plants from this obligation (or halving the obligation to 2.5%) would make a difference in energy prices.

Ratepayer Returns

Second, the overall amount of frequency regulation that KEPCO must procure should decrease with the addition of fast, accurate resources such as Li-ion batteries.  Fast and accurate resources correct the deviation in frequency more quickly, meaning that less frequency regulation is required overall.  Therefore, 5% (52 MW) of fast-response resources could deliver more than 5% of the regulation required on the South Korean grid.

Ultimately, the South Korean ratepayer will benefit because these savings should be passed on to the customer.  Keeping energy prices low is an economic and political issue in South Korea, where many key industries rely on energy-intensive exports.  Manufacturers are keen to keep their products priced competitively, and the government is under pressure to keep improving economic growth.

 

California Reaffirms EV Leadership

— October 13, 2014

California Governor Jerry Brown has doubled down on the Golden State’s commitment to electric vehicles (EVs) by enacting six laws aimed at promoting EVs.  The package of legislation includes two laws aimed at making EVs available to a broader audience of individuals – one for people who live in multi-unit dwellings and another with incentives for getting EVs into carshare programs.

Landlords in California now cannot block the installation of EV charging equipment through restrictive leases if renters agree to pay the costs.  This law will help California’s large renter population join the EV crowd and could help the state reach its goal of 1 million EVs on the road by 2023.  Most purchasers of EVs to date live in single-family homes, and this law removes one potential obstacle for broader adoption.

According to Navigant Research’s report, EV Geographic Forecasts, which was produced before these new laws were passed, California was likely to have approximately 820,000 light duty EVs on the road by 2023.

PEVs on the Road, California and the United States: 2014-2023

(Source: Navigant Research)

Smoggy and Dry

California is home to 7 of the 10 cities in the United States with the worst air quality, including smoggy Bakersfield, and has endured 3 consecutive years of drought, which is motivating Governor Brown to continue efforts to promote emissions-free driving in the state.  Some of those afflicted communities might breathe a little easier in future years, as another of the new laws targets incentives for placing EVs in carsharing programs in lower income areas with air quality problems.  EVs make sense in carshare and rental programs, as users don’t have to refuel the vehicles, and motorists who have a good experience could later become EV purchasers.  However, even after federal and state incentives, higher priced EVs are still out of reach of many consumers.

Incentives for plug-in vehicle drivers, such as HOV access, have proven critical in increasing EV adoption.  States such as California, Georgia, Oregon, and Washington that offer financial and other incentives are also the top sellers in EVs per capita.  According to HybridCars.com, sales of plug-in hybrids are up 44% over last year, while sales of battery electric vehicles are up 20%.

 

Bioenergy Transition: The Challenge Ahead

— October 13, 2014

Despite the relative abundance of biomass as a fuel source in many places, the bioenergy industry has failed to gain the traction as a cornerstone renewable resource that many envisioned just 5 to 10 years ago.  Facing stagnant industry growth, the industry is in desperate need of a shot in the arm from policymakers.

Baseload biomass plants, for example, were especially hard hit by the restricted lending and general economic malaise of recent years.  Commercial installed capacity was historically much higher than wind and solar power combined, but it has been eclipsed by wind generation sources in recent years.  Global installed capacity currently stands at an estimated 3% of global generating capacity.

The European Union (EU), which envisioned a broad surge in bioenergy power and heat production to deliver its 20-20-20 goals, expects to achieve just 83% of its target by 2020.  A combination of market forces, weakened policy support, contentious debate over the sustainability of bioenergy, and the relative success of wind and solar has stifled investment across the industry.  Contending with similar but more severe headwinds, growth for the bioenergy industry in the United States has been mostly nonexistent.

New Openings

With the regulatory vice tightening on carbon-emitting power producers in the past year, however, the opportunities to co-fire diverse biomass feedstocks in coal-burning plants or switch these plants over to dedicated biopower production looks to be shaping up as an attractive proposition again.  As a feedstock, biomass remains a compelling option for reducing carbon emissions from centralized power plants because it eliminates the need for a significant overhaul of existing hardware.

Unfortunately, while recent policy and regulatory developments in the EU and United States look promising on paper, they are unlikely to give the industry the boost it needs in the near term.

Under its framework for climate and energy policies presented in January 2014, the European Commission called for 27% renewables by 2030.  Meanwhile, the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) proposed Clean Power Rule in the United States is a potentially positive development for the bioenergy industry.  Yet, biomass will need to be recognized under the Clean Air Act as a renewable source of energy, with a favorable carbon profile when compared to fossil fuels, for the industry to gain significant traction.

Cost Gains

Longer-term developments look more positive.  According to a recent McKinsey Insights article, bioenergy in Europe has the potential to lower the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) by up to 48% by 2025 through gains like boiler efficiencies and greater plant standardization.  Although the relative abundance of cheap coal and softer emissions regulations in the United States (relative to Europe) require greater LCOE gains to reach price parity with coal-based generation, these developments would be positive for bioenergy development in both regions.

For bioenergy to capitalize on these positive trends, logistical challenges related to the collection, aggregation, transportation, and handling of biomass will need to be overcome.  Higher growth will depend on breakthroughs in carbon densification processes for biomass resources, for example, and the increasing commoditization of biomass feedstocks (including the expansion of the international trade in pellets) for power production.

 

Cities Are Making the Energy Cloud a Reality

— October 12, 2014

The possibilities for procuring and distributing clean, low-cost electricity offer challenges to cities and utilities – but also opportunities to forge new relationships and lay the foundations for cities that are clean and efficient in their energy use.

I’ve written previously about the close relationship between smart cities and smart grids.  Early projects have largely been driven by utility programs for the piloting and demonstration of smart grid technologies and to gather intelligence on consumer and business responses to energy management programs.

The challenge is to integrate the lessons learned from these projects into broader smart city programs.  Cities have played a role in these pilots but have largely been supporters of utility-driven technology programs.  This is changing as cities develop more extensive energy management strategies of their own.  Boston, for example, is working closely with its local utilities (National Grid and NSTAR) to reduce its $50 million-plus energy costs and meet the goal set in 2007 to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 25% by 2020 and 80% by 2050.   The city is targeting energy consumption across residential and commercial properties.  Other initiatives include the introduction of an energy management system for Boston’s public buildings and the deployment of LED street lighting.

New Collaborations

Minneapolis is going further.  The city is using the renegotiation of its franchise relationship with its utilities (which governs their access and use of city resources such as roadways and buildings) to establish a new form of collaboration that it believes can be a model for the rest of the United States.  The proposed Clean Energy Partnership between Minneapolis and its electricity and gas suppliers, Xcel Energy and CenterPoint Energy, will create a new body focused on helping the city meets its climate action goals of reducing GHG emissions 15% by 2015 and 30% by 2025 based on a 2006 baseline.

The increasing focus of city leaders on energy efficiency, reduced GHG emissions, and the development of a more resilient infrastructure requires close partnership with utilities.   Cities like Boston and Minneapolis are pushing their utilities to help them meet their commitments, but the cities themselves are also taking a more active role.  The Greater London Authority (GLA), for example, has become the first local government authority in the United Kingdom to be licensed as a “junior” energy supplier.  This enables London to buy power from small generators and sell it to other public bodies at an attractive rate.   The city expects to be buying and selling power by early 2015, and it hopes to reduce energy costs for London while also boosting the local renewable energy industry.

A Vision Emerges

The emerging energy vision for smart cities integrates large- and small-scale energy initiatives: from improvements in national infrastructure through citywide increases in efficiency to expanded local energy generation.  Cities will thus become clusters of smart energy communities that can exploit the benefits of the new energy systems, such as distributed generation, dynamic load management, and active market participation.

This synergy presents an excellent example of the opportunities and challenges presented to utilities by the emergence of the energy cloud.  Utilities need to see cities as more than demonstration sites for technology.  Cities are ideal partners for developing the new relationships and the new services core to that energy cloud vision.

These issues are explored further in a new Navigant Research white paper, Smart Cities and the Energy Cloud.  I will also be discussing these developments in my presentation on Smart Cities at Korea Smart Grid Week in October and at European Utility Week in November.

 

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