Navigant Research Blog

Blackout-Plagued India Moves toward a Smarter Grid

— July 10, 2014

Utilities in India continue to take concrete steps toward upgrading to a smarter power grid that in the last few years has suffered massive blackouts.  Though the steps are not yet widespread, they show progress toward a more modern and stable grid.

Within a 2-week span, two utilities announced contract awards for new meters.  The largest announcement came when Bangalore Electricity Supply Company ordered 1.7 million digital smart meters from Landis+Gyr.  The meters are to be delivered over the next 12 months to Bangalore Electric, which provides power to the city of Bangalore and eight districts in the state of Karnataka, population 64 million.  The second recent announcement came when West Bengal State Electricity Distribution Company Limited ordered more than 1 million digital smart meters from Landis+Gyr.  Headquartered in Kolkata, the utility manages electricity distribution for 96% of the state of West Bengal, population 90.3 million.  West Bengal has been at the forefront of smart metering in India, having begun upgrading devices in 2009.  This deal follows an order for 1.5 million meters from Landis+Gyr, which were deployed last year.

Progress, Perhaps

In a separate deal, Essel Utilities will deploy an unusual retrofit meter solution.  The utility will install a module, made by local metering company Aquameas, that contains a radio unit from Cyan Holdings called the CyLec 865 MHz RF device.  A total of 5,000 of these units will be attached to existing meters.  The retrofit installations are to take place in the city of Muzaffarpur, in the state of Bihar, starting late in the fourth quarter of 2014.

Earlier moves made by Indian utilities and smart grid vendors indicate that the market is progressing.  Tata Power Delhi was the first utility in India to launch an automated demand response project with smart meters.  The project in the nation’s capital is for commercial and industrial customers that can take advantage of the latest technology.  Approximately 250 customers are involved, with the potential of helping shed loads totaling 20 MW.  Project partners include IBM, Honeywell, and Landis+Gyr.  Washington state-based meter provider Itron has made India a priority for its smart metering efforts, opening a lab last year to highlight its solutions for the Indian market, where it has also been active in supplying advanced water meters.

India still has a long way to go to reach its goals of a more modern electric grid that could eventually involve some 130 million meters.  But utilities are moving ahead with projects and pilots that could bring the country’s power grid closer to the 21st century.

 

Facing Power Shortage, United Kingdom Looks to Demand Response

— July 10, 2014

Outside the United States, the United Kingdom represents the largest (and arguably most dynamic) market for demand response, as described in Navigant Research’s Demand Response report.  In some ways, though, the United Kingdom has surpassed the United States on the demand response front.  One of these is a proposed mechanism known as the Electricity Demand Reduction (EDR) program that would create financial incentives for customers to pledge permanent electricity reductions.

In contrast with traditional demand response programs, which pay customers to reduce power demand during peak periods and shift it to other times, EDR creates incentives for customers to invest in energy efficiency measures that result in lower overall peak demand.  The U.K. government launched a 2-year pilot in June and will continue to examine the viability and impact such a program would have on the country’s electricity system.

Crisis Ahead

Much of the impetus for demand response programs in the United Kingdom is due to the rise of intermittent renewable energy sources such as offshore wind energy.  However, with the country aiming for broader decarbonization of its energy system, demand response is being considered alternatively as a platform for deeper investment in energy efficiency measures that reduce energy consumption in terms of not only kilowatt-hours, but also kilowatts of power demand.

The United Kingdom is headed toward a potential crisis in its energy supply, with a severe shortage of new plants slated for construction to replace those being decommissioned.  The country is expecting to shut down more than a dozen baseload power plants by 2025 with a combined capacity of over 20 GW.  To put that into perspective, the United Kingdom’s peak demand usually hits 55 GW to 60 GW in the winter, so more than one-third of the country’s current baseload power generation is going offline in the next 11 years.  As a result, the government is looking into a wide range of options such as EDR that would make permanent reductions in peak demand to help close the gap with the decline in supply.

In its 2012 Energy Efficiency Strategy, the U.K. government concluded that, “through socially cost-effective investment in energy efficiency we could be saving 196 terawatt-hours in 2020, equivalent to 22 power stations.”  The EDR pilot will address the lingering questions about the program’s practicality and cost effectiveness.  If it succeeds, it will represent an attractive approach for meeting the country’s long-term decarbonization targets.

 

EV Emissions Reconsidered

— July 2, 2014

Quantifying the degree to which plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) improve ambient air quality conditions over conventional gas or diesel-powered vehicles is an important, but difficult, question to answer.  An interview with Electric Power Research Institute’s (EPRI’s) Marcus Alexander, who will discuss the preliminary findings of a study seeking to clarify how PEVs affect environmental conditions at EPRI’s Plug-In 2014 Conference in San Jose, demonstrates the complexity of this subject.

Much of the calculation has to do with where the PEV is driven, as this dictates the carbon intensity of the electric grid used to power the vehicle.  However, in most locations throughout the United States and the globe, the operating emissions of a PEV versus a conventional vehicle on a per-mile basis lean either substantially or marginally toward conventional vehicles.

However, there are nuances to this equation beyond simple pounds of pollutant emitted per unit of energy consumed.  For instance, when a conventional vehicle consumes a gallon of gasoline or diesel, the pollutant emissions calculation is fairly straightforward.

Net Zero

Additionally, the pound of pollutant emitted varies considerably from the mobile source (vehicle) to the stationary source (power plant).  For example, Alexander states that carbon monoxide and volatile organic compounds are more tightly linked to vehicles than power plants, while sulfur dioxide emissions are associated with fossil fuel combustion at power plants.  Supplanting gas or diesel miles driven with electric miles driven can therefore reduce emissions of particular pollutants while increasing others.

However, when a PEV consumes a kilowatt-hour (kWh) of electricity, it may have a net zero impact on pollutant emissions, depending on a complex interaction of emissions regulations and available generation capacity.  Growth of wind generation over the last decade has created excess capacity, often at night when the wind blows strongest and demand is lowest.  Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that in 2012, net generation exceeded net load by around 2.3%.  Navigant Research estimates in the report Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts that nearly 300,000 PEVs will be in use in the United States in 2014.  Assuming an average annual PEV mileage of 12,000 and the EIA’s projections on electricity energy demand in the United States, PEVs would represent less than 0.03% of total U.S. electricity demand.

New Sources

Further, while the emissions profile of burning 1 gallon of gasoline will stay relatively consistent over time, the emissions profile of consuming 1 kWh of electricity from the grid will change as new generation assets are added to the grid and old assets retired.  In the last 2 years, nearly 15,000 MW of coal generation has been retired, with a little over 5,000 MW added.  Over the same period, 22,000 MW of renewables generation were added.  If U.S. electricity demand stays on the plateau of the last decade, the replacement of aging high-emissions assets in favor of renewables will be much easier, and the grid’s emissions profile is likely to change quickly.

EPRI’s study seeks to quantify these factors and others (such as energy consumption from lithium ion battery development) to provide the most accurate analysis of how existing PEV technologies will influence environmental conditions.  Alexander clarifies that this study, while quite comprehensive, does not investigate potential opportunities presented by PEVs, such as utilizing them for grid energy storage or ancillary services, that have yet to become market realities.  Findings from the study will be fundamental to defining the efficacy of PEVs in attaining a number of U.S. goals for air quality standards and carbon emissions reductions.

 

Emissions Reduction Efforts Gather Steam

— July 2, 2014

Over the past month, worldwide efforts to reduce global carbon emissions have intensified.  On June 2, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released a proposal to cut emissions using state-by-state targets (read more on the proposed rule and its implications in previous blogs by my colleagues Brett Feldman and Ryan Citron).  As states begin to explore different compliance options, regional cap-and-trade programs, such as the Northeast’s Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), have gained traction.  Outside of the United States, The World Bank recently reported that more than 60 carbon pricing systems are either operational or in development worldwide.

Cap-and-Trade Considerations

Despite opposition to the EPA’s proposed rule, some states have already begun to embrace the change by exploring a variety of compliance options.   Washington state and Pennsylvania, among others, see cap-and-trade as a possibility to achieve their state’s target for emissions cuts.  John Podesta, a senior adviser to President Obama, told the Financial Times that a market-based solution to achieve emissions cuts would be “the most cost-effective way that states might come together to get the reductions that will be required.”  Many Democratic governors have already indicated that they will draw on the success of the RGGI and California’s statewide market to achieve compliance with the new targets.

Not to be outdone, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of China laid out plans to establish a national carbon market starting in 2018.  If it comes to fruition, the national model will take into account outcomes from seven regional pilot programs that launched in 2014 (the last of which was scheduled to launch in June).  The pilot schemes, scheduled for evaluation in 2016, cover around one-third of China’s gross domestic product and one-fifth of its energy use.  If successful, these programs will not only shape the development of a national carbon market, but also help meet the national goal to reduce carbon intensity by 40% to 45% by 2020 from 2005 levels.

Is a U.S. Carbon Market Realistic?

Realistically, such legislation would be extremely unlikely in the immediate future.  National cap-and-trade legislation has failed on several occasions since President Obama took office, with opponents citing economic harm as the primary concern.  However, if China implements a national carbon market that achieves economical emissions cuts, it could provide the impetus to spur federal legislation in the United States.  Additionally, with the United Nations Climate Summit approaching in September, progress from United States and China may help further global efforts to curb emissions.

 

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