Navigant Research Blog

Transmission Superhighway Takes Shape

— October 20, 2014

In a previous blog I focused on the expansion of high-voltage transmission systems driven by utility-scale wind generation in the multistate arc that stretches across the central United States, from the Texas Panhandle to North Dakota.  Many of us have underestimated the impact and potential of this resource as a contributor to many states’ renewable portfolio standard targets (RPS).  Headlines about new utility-scale solar projects obscure the fact that installed utility-scale wind capacity is at least 5 times that of solar.

Recently, I looked into the long term electric transmission plans for every region in the United States, and found interesting developments in the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) region.  SPP covers much of the Great Plains and the Southwest, including all or part of an eight-state area that includes Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas.  The geographical footprint of SPP overlaps slightly with other independent system operators (ISOs) and regional transmission operators (RTOs) such as Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO).  SPP’s footprint can be seen in the map below.

SPP Regional Footprint

 (Source: Southwest Power Pool)

In 2008, SPP announced that it plans to build the electric equivalent of the United States interstate highway system – an interstate transmission superhighway that would serve as the backbone of a higher capacity, more resilient transmission grid, while providing increased access to low-cost generation, improving electric reliability, and meeting future regional electricity needs.

The SPP transmission plans I saw show that this conceptual idea is beginning to come to fruition, as new 345 kV transmissions systems are being built and older systems are upgraded.  Many of these projects have been completed by the transmission owner/entities in the region to address congestion issues in corridors like the Omaha/Kansas City to the Texas Panhandle route.  The figure below shows recent transmission system builds and upgrades.

SPP Regional Transmission System

(Source: Southwest Power Pool)

On the Horizon  

Meanwhile, ABB has debuted new, 1,110 kV high-voltage direct current systems.  A recent announcement by ABB on new products with 1,110 kV high-voltage direct current capabilities raises the bar again.  Until this announcement, 765 kV lines were the largest capacity lines available, and most transmission lines are currently in the 230 kV to 350 kV sizes.  ABB and other vendors (such as Alstom Grid, General Electric, and Siemens) are focusing on the Asia Pacific markets in China and India, as well Northern Europe, where major utility-scale wind projects now under construction will need to be connected with urban areas.  ABB’s announcement is exciting because it raises the high-voltage capability to a new level, well above what we currently see here in the United States.  I can only imagine that ABB will be talking to SPP about how to take the transmission superhighway to the next level.

 

Epic Electric Transmission Crosses the Rockies

— October 14, 2014

One of the most ambitious high-voltage transmission system and utility-scale energy storage projects in history is happening in the American West.  Designed by Duke American Transmission in a partnership with Pathfinder Renewable Wind Energy, Magnum Energy, and Dresser-Rand, the massive plan was recently announced.  As I have discussed in a previous blog, the utility-scale wind generation projects in progress across the High Plains and the Midwest are epic, to say the least.  Transporting this energy to major population centers such as Los Angeles represents major challenges and huge transmission system investments.  The intermittency of the wind resource needs to be managed, as well.  That is why this proposal represents some very creative thinking and engineering.

Driving cross-country from San Francisco to Northern Wisconsin on I-80, I began to better understand the massive geographical challenges that transmission utility planners and operators face.  The idea of moving twice the power that the Hoover Dam in Nevada produces from Chugwater, outside of Cheyenne, Wyoming, to Southern California includes building high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission lines across mountain passes up to 11,000 feet in Wyoming, and slightly lower passes in Nevada and California.  These lines will take years to fund and build, creating significant opportunities for major suppliers like ABB, which recently announced new 1,100 kV HVDC transmission system capabilities.

Salt Storage

The other really striking part of this announcement is the grid-scale storage project, which proposes to excavate salt caverns in central Utah and use them to store the wind energy as huge volumes of compressed air, serving as a massive battery, larger than any storage system ever built.  Compressed air would be pumped into these caverns at night, when wind power generation is peaking, and discharged during the day during periods of higher demand. 

The proposal is currently going through what may be endless approval processes at the state and federal levels, but a decision could come as soon as 2015.  In many ways, this new and novel proposal reminds me of the Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) Helms pumped storage solution that has been operating since 1984, storing Diablo Canyon’s nuclear output at night by pumping water up into a lake and then discharging it through turbines for peak generation.  The Duke project could be an epic feat of American power engineering to rival Hoover Dam itself.

 

What Robots Can Teach Us about Energy Management

— October 14, 2014

The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) has learned some valuable lessons from a study involving the use of robotics to simulate human behavior.  The results show that dramatic improvements in efficiency can be obtained with a combination of new technology and a focus on energy efficient construction techniques.

The 5-year Campbell Creek project involved three similar Knoxville, Tennessee-area homes.  Each has the same floor plan, with two stories, and measures between 2,400 and 2,500 square feet.  Here is how they differ:

  • Builder House: This was the control home, or benchmark, built to represent a typical residence constructed for the Tennessee Valley and built to local building codes.
  • Retrofit House: This house was essentially the Builder House, but retrofitted with energy efficiency technologies, such as more energy efficient windows, ENERGY STAR appliances, compact fluorescent lights, sealed attic with foam insulation, and high efficiency heat pumps.
  • High Performance House: This house was built using the latest available construction technologies aimed at energy efficiency, as well as PV panels and solar water heating to help make it a near zero energy house.

The TVA then outfitted each home with robotic devices to mimic human behavior.  For example, a robotic arm on the refrigerator in each home would open the door simultaneously at 3:00 in the afternoon, when kids typically arrive home from school.  Each home had the same automated systems to turn on lights, televisions, appliances, and showers.  The homes also had a device that replicates how a person’s body heat affects the temperature and humidity of a room.  In addition, each home had hundreds of sensors installed to monitor energy consumption of all the subsystems.

Results and Lessons

The Builder House had a utility bill of about $1,600 a year, the Retrofit about $1,000, and the High Performance was slightly more than $400, according to project managers.  Based on the Home Energy Rating System (HERS) Index, the homes scored as follows: Builder House, 101; Retrofit House, 68; and High Performance House, 34 (a lower score is better).

The TVA project was conducted with partners Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI).  Near real-time data from the project as well as archived results are available at the EPRI web site.

These are not exactly startling results, but this intriguing study has valuable lessons for all stakeholders – utilities, homebuilders, and homeowners.  One main lesson is that doing basic things like tightening a home’s envelope with enhanced insulation and energy efficient windows will have lasting benefits.  Also, investing in the most efficient HVAC and water heating systems one can afford will pay off in energy savings.  The manager of the project, David Dinse, who has just retired, told me the project has generated quite useful data – so why aren’t more builders and utilities taking these lessons and running with them?

 

C3 Wins Big with Italy’s Enel

— October 14, 2014

While the details are slim, C3 Energy has revealed that it has been selected for a $64.4 million deal to provide professional support services and software as a service (SaaS) solutions to Italy’s largest electric utility, Enel.  Of that sum, $18.3 million will be subcontracted, leaving about $46 million in deal value for C3.  The news was published in the EU’s Tenders Electronic Daily (TED).

C3 is a Redwood City, California-based utility analytics solutions provider started by Tom Siebel, founder of Siebel Systems.  Enel has some 32 million meters, implying a deal value of around $2 per endpoint, assuming the company’s entire grid is included.

The news follows on C3’s May win with Baltimore Gas and Electric, which is deploying the company’s revenue protection and advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) operations analytics solutions across its 2 million meters.  In June, Northeast Utilities contracted with C3 to deploy its Energy Customer Analytics platform.  The customer engagement platform will inform customers about the specifics of their energy use and provide custom recommendations for energy conservation.  Northeast Utilities has 3.6 million customers across Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire.

Second Act

The Enel deal, however, dwarfs these stateside contracts, and should go a long way toward establishing C3 in the European utility market.  Enel’s was the first major nationwide AMI program worldwide; the rollout began in 2001 and deployment was completed in 2011.  This new contract provides further validation of the C3 solution, which was only launched in 2009.

C3’s solution is notable for its SaaS model, which hasn’t been fully embraced by utilities.  Over the past year or so, however, the model has been adopted by a number of big utility vendors, such as Itron, with its Itron TOTAL solution.  AT&T is also promoting a managed service offering for AMI.  C3 says that utility silos are breaking down and that its solution’s machine-to-machine learning capabilities are ideal for applications like predictive maintenance.  The company also offers analytics solutions for asset management, cyber security, and demand response, among others.

Perhaps the larger lesson from the Enel news is that Tom Siebel – who became a billionaire after selling his Siebel Systems to Oracle – is no one-hit wonder.  Anyone who can survive being stomped and gored by an elephant is not to be taken lightly.

 

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