Navigant Research Blog

India’s Power Sector Moves into the 21st Century

— January 14, 2015

In December, ABB announced a $55 million project win in the Indian states of Behar and West Bengal.  ABB will install both transmission and distribution (T&D) substations, incorporating ABB substation technologies with fiber optic telecommunications systems and new substation automation systems.  As a part of an overall goal to meet growing demand, improve access, and reduce losses, the facilities will support generation and other transmission investments in Northern India.  And ABB isn’t alone – big wins in India have also been announced by Alstom and Tata Consulting Agency.

India has seen a lot of activity in terms of electric infrastructure investment over recent years, and the nation is on its way to becoming a global leader in the installation of smart grid technologies.  As my colleague James McCray describes, these Investments are benefiting from several large-scale efforts to expand electrification, reduce the environmental impacts of generation, and decrease power system losses.  In 2009, The World Bank and POWERGRID (India’s transmission operator) introduced the Fifth Power System Development Project, a series of transmission investment projects set up to bolster India’s then-troubled economy through providing resources for industrial and agricultural enterprises.   Now in its fifth year, the planned $16 billion program has funded regional projects in both Northern and Southern India.

Acceleration

In terms of expanding and updating its distribution grid, India’s central government has begun the second stage of its Restructured Accelerated Power Development and Reform Programme (also known as R-APDRP).   This two-phase project has supported individual state utilities in an initial stage of data gathering for information and planning, as well as the aforementioned second stage of new grid construction and upgrades, including advanced metering infrastructure and distribution automation rollouts.  Investments under this plan are expected to total around $10 billion.

If you haven’t noticed yet, the sums of money involved are tremendous.  The global smart grid market for distribution was forecast at $15 billion in 2014, indicating that if India is allocating between $10 to $20 billion (of the $26 billion total for T&D) over the course of a few years, that would make the country one of the world’s largest spenders, the United States, Western Europe, and China.  Yet, India’s Power Minister, Piyush Goyal, stated in November that India needed to put even more into its T&D infrastructure – $50 billion over the next 5 years.

The Big Shift

India has several primary drivers for investment: growing demand and a need to increase electrification; reduction of fossil fuel consumption (the majority of India’s electricity is coal-fired according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and the country wants to install more solar); and reliability (India has suffered heavily from rolling blackouts in recent years).  At the moment, India’s grid is constrained due to limited and aging infrastructure – some estimate that generation plants are utilized as little as 70% because of this.

Investing in new infrastructure and smart grid projects, India is targeting efficiency while simultaneously extending its grid.   For the time being, India will increase coal-fired capacity to meet its demand challenges, but the country is also promoting renewables both directly (through government investment) and indirectly as it improves its transmission infrastructure.  With these investments and states such as Gujarat leading the way in progressively supporting renewables, it is possible that India could soon shift from an underdeveloped energy infrastructure heavily dependent on fossil fuels to a leading example of clean and efficient energy at a national scale.

 

India’s Faulty Grid Presents A Transmission Opportunity

— January 12, 2015

Many of us here in the United States have little appreciation for the tremendous size and opportunity for electric transmission and distribution system technologies in the Asia Pacific region.  To use Geoffrey Moore’s analogies regarding how technology markets develop, there are the 500-pound gorillas, two or three followers, and a number of other wannabes.

Taking that metaphor to the regional market level, the Asia Pacific market has two significant gorilla countries, India and China, some followers like Japan, Australia, and Indonesia, and then the other wannabe countries.  Electric transmission technology vendors have an opportunity-rich environment across the region, but the sheer scale of the opportunities and the sophisticated plans in India and China present the biggest gorillas.  To illustrate this point, I’ll focus on India, where the national transmission planning process is most transparent.

The 1.2 Billion

India currently has a population of 1,264,360,000 people, representing 17.5% of the world’s population, or 386 people per km2, of which only an estimated 30% have electricity.  The country’s landmass is approximately 3,287,263.00 km2, which is about half the size of the United States.  India currently has over 220 gigawatts (GW) of generation capacity, a number that is expected to grow to 425 GW in 2022, with the addition of up to 66,000 kilometers of transmission lines and 90 new substations.  Most of the current electric transmission system in India is in the 135 kilovolt (kV) to 450 kV range, and it has significant reliability issues due to weather, introduction of intermittent renewables, and aging infrastructure.

The fascinating point here is that Power Grid India, the national transmission system operator, is now building out a high-voltage transmission superhighway that will serve as the backbone for India’s rapidly expanding transmission and distribution grid.  This plan is exceptional because of the use of extra-high-voltage 800 kV high-voltage direct current (HVDC) and 765 kV high-voltage alternating current (HVAC) systems – on a scale seen nowhere on the globe except in China.  The following graphic shows the overall configuration.

Planned HVTSs under Implementation, India

(Source: Power Grid Corp.  of India Ltd.)

The Way Forward

Adding to the tremendous scale, India is specifying and using the latest technologies, including state-of-the-art flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) devices such as static VAR compensators (SVCs) and static synchronous compensator (STATCOMs) that are still controversial in some regions in North America, such as PJM, as well as synchrophasor and wide area situational awareness (SWASA) technologies and solutions to better manage the transmission grid in real-time.  These technologies and markets are discussed in a series of Navigant Research reports from 2014, including Flexible AC Transmission Systems and High Voltage Transmission Systems.

India recently deployed over 1,300 phasor measurement units (PMUs), giving the country one of the largest current PMU deployments in the world, showing leadership in advancing these new and powerful technologies.

For the big three electric transmission technology companies, ABB, GE/Alstom, and Siemens, as well as the other technology companies like Schneider, S&C, Mitsubishi, Toshiba, and other new entrants, the rapid expansion of India’s transmission system represents a tremendous revenue opportunity.  For the population of India, it represents electrification on a large scale a much more reliable and resilient power grid – and a path to a much higher standard of living.

 

Outage Management Technology Looks to an Integrated Future

— December 30, 2014

First deployed in the 1970s, outage management systems (OMSs) were originally designed to incorporate outage notifications from external sources to create a map view of the outage and generate an optimized power restoration plan.  Today, with smart grids revolutionizing power delivery through telecommunications and automation, OMSs have evolved into something much more sophisticated.  However, it’s also become less and less clear what an OMS actually is.

Conventional OMSs understand the outage, determine the correct course of action to take, and issue switching orders for the control room operator and/or distribution management or supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system.  Though these systems can be linked, each one typically maintains a separate database, meaning that no system holds a complete understanding of the network state or restoration process.  Now, vendors are combining outage management with distribution management and SCADA, creating what is often called an advanced distribution management system (ADMS).  Incorporating a single system map and database, ADMSs can manage the engineering grid with the restoration process in real time, resulting in faster, more informed action to restore power.

Real-Time Resilience

On the communications side, new OMSs may integrate real-time, two-way information from the customer call center, the interactive voice response (IVR) system, smart meters, mobile crews, and even social media.  This enables the system to update itself immediately upon the reception of outside information and exchange pertinent notifications and updates with mobile crews and customers.  Again, OMSs have traditionally not managed these different communications media; they’ve only exchanged limited information with them.  Now, due to proliferating open standards, the pace of this exchange has increased, and new platforms, such as social media, are increasingly involved.

Analytics solutions represent another game-changer for OMSs and grid resiliency/reliability efforts.  Analytics technology combines notifications, voltage readings, and outside sources, such as weather, to inform preventive maintenance efforts, increase the accuracy of damage assessment, and improve the efficiency of the restoration plan.  Analytics systems can be integrated into a combined DMS/OMS/SCADA, ADMS, or purchased as a separate overlay to enhance systems.

All Together Now

Navigant Research expects growth for standalone OMSs to decline as more utilities adopt ADMS strategies, but market demand for improved reliability and lowering outage costs will continue to drive adoption of products and services to support advanced outage management — analytics, customer engagement tools, and distribution automation. As Navigant Research’s report, Outage Management Systems, makes clear, these systems certainly aren’t what they used to be.  Not only are they more dynamic, reliable, and flexible, but they’re also used by utilities in new ways that require traditionally siloed departments that manage engineering, operations, and communications to work closely together.

Not all utilities will adopt a full ADMS solution from a single vendor—it’s likely that many will configure systems in a more integrated fashion and will move toward a combined management philosophy, where outage management is one application within a platform that manages operations, engineering, and even customer engagement during events.

 

New Transmission Replaces Retiring Coal Plants

— December 23, 2014

In my drive across the country last summer, two unexpected features of the landscape stood out.  First, driving across Nevada and Utah, the silhouette of coal power plants frequently loomed on the horizon.  Second, the sweeping vistas almost anyplace across the western half of the United States now almost always include electric transmission towers and power lines. The recent U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Clean Power Plan (CPP) will certainly change that landscape, as aging coal generation plants are retired and dismantled. Driving between Green River and Provo, Utah, I passed through a beautiful canyon and within a few hundred yards of the Price Canyon coal-fired plant, which is scheduled for retirement due to age, EPA compliance regulations, and a constrained location.

If the EPA plan is implemented as currently written, there will be an increase in transmission planning and spending as the transmission grid is reconfigured to address coal generation plant retirements and new transmission capacity is required to deliver wind and solar resources to utilities in other parts of the country.

Out of the West

In previous Navigant Research blogs, I have discussed the development of a north-south transmission highway between the northern Midwest wind farms and the population centers in Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas.  However, coal plant retirements across the lower Midwest, East Coast, and southeastern U.S. will have a serious impact on electric reliability across those regions, according to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). Forward-thinking electric transmission companies are anticipating this and are now building new west-to-east transmission to deliver wind power from the High Plains to population centers in the Midwest and Southeast that will be hit hard by the retirements.

In November, the Rock Island Clean Line LLC filed petitions with the Iowa Utilities Board to obtain new electric transmission line franchises.  Rock Island plans to construct, maintain, and operate an electric transmission line across 16 Iowa counties.  The project is an approximately 500-mile overhead, high-voltage direct current (DC) transmission line that will deliver 3,500 MW of wind energy generation from northwest Iowa to cities in Illinois and other eastern states.

When you look at the distribution of existing coal-fired generation plans across the United States, it’s easy to imagine where additional new transmission lines will be needed. The map below shows the distribution of the coal generation fleet across the United States.

Coal Power Plant Locations and Size, United States: September 2014

(Source: Energy Velocity Maps)

Perhaps another transmission superhighway, using ultra-high-voltage alternating current and high-voltage DC transmission lines to move energy from the High Plains to the Midwest and Southeast, will take shape in the coming years.

 

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