Navigant Research Blog

Utility Customers Respond to Variable Pricing

— September 7, 2014

On July 23, Baltimore Gas and Electric (BGE) customers earned more than $2.5 million by reducing their electricity usage during peak summer heat hours.  Over 640,000 residences voluntarily participated – nearly an 80% participation rate among those who were notified – amounting to an average bill credit of $6.80, enough to buy an ice cream cone while turning down the air conditioning a few degrees.

BGE is the first utility in the country to put all of its customers with smart meters on a default Peak Time Rebate program.

It works like this: BGE customers with a smart meter can participate in the BGE Smart Energy Rewards program by voluntarily reducing their electricity usage to earn a bill credit of $1.25/kWh saved from 1 p.m. to 7 p.m. on designated energy savings days.  Eligible customers will be notified, usually the evening before, by an automated phone call, e-mail, or text message.  BGE anticipates that there will be 5 to 10 energy savings days in a summer season.

Smarter Grids, Smarter Customers

BGE has had a traditional direct load control (DLC) residential DR program for many years, and it has been successful within its own parameters.  However, the company has been installing advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), as covered in Navigant Research’s Smart Meters report, over the last few years, and with that network comes new capabilities (and regulatory requirements to meet cost-benefit thresholds).  AMI provides the utility and potentially customers with near-real-time interval meter data, so the utility can send time-based price signals and get almost immediate feedback on customer performance.  Couple these abilities with new end-user device and thermostat technologies that enable fast response and remote control by the customer, and you have more customer-centric, flexible demand response (DR) programs than were possible before; this can increase customer penetration rates dramatically.

Right on Time

Other innovative companies are trying different variations of programs and pricing offerings.  The Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) is looking to become the first utility to have a default time-of-use (TOU) rate after running a successful pilot that showed that customers preferred TOU structures to their standard flat rate.  The guiding principles of Oklahoma Gas and Electric (OG&E) for DR include voluntary participation for customers and no DLC by the utility, relying completely on customer empowerment.  OG&E believes that pairing dynamic pricing with technological devices will achieve these goals.  The province of Ontario, Canada has instituted default TOU pricing for customers with smart meters since 2005, the only area in North America to do so.  A traditional DLC program already existed in the province, and now the plan is to combine the control ability of the DLC with TOU pricing to help customers respond to price variations.  Massachusetts is set to become the first U.S. state to mandate default critical peak pricing (CPP) based on a recent order by the Department of Public Utilities.

All of these developments and other innovative programs are covered in Navigant Research’s new report, Residential Demand Response.  The report discusses industry trends around the world and provides 10-year forecasts of sites, capacity, and revenue, including breakouts between DLC and dynamic pricing.  Over time, all these different pilot projects will blossom into full-blown programs and expand into other jurisdictions, creating a truly responsive demand side of the energy equation.

 

New York Details Its Energy Vision

— August 27, 2014

The New York State Public Service Commission (PSC) has released its latest straw proposal on its Reforming the Energy Vision (REV) proceeding.  It includes recommendations that incumbent utilities take on the central Distributed System Platform (DSP) role, at least in the short term.  This was one of the most controversial issues in the REV plan, with the potential for the utilities to be stripped of many of their responsibilities by the PSC and replaced by a new independent entity.  PSC staff decided to stick with the utilities – partly for substantive reasons, partly out of expediency.

The paper includes a table comparing the roles of a utility versus a DSP, exhibiting a great deal of overlap.  So the utilities can breathe a major sigh of relief with that recommendation, knowing that they will maintain many pivotal duties.  But the paper does point out that utilities do not currently have all of the capabilities and competencies needed to successfully operate the DSP and will need to hire new staff with different skill sets, as outlined in my earlier blog on utility hiring trends.

Seeking Alignment

Also noteworthy, from the standpoint of demand response (DR) and distributed energy resources (DER), is the recommendation that all utilities be required to develop DR tariffs, including fees for storage and energy efficiency.  PSC staffers are wary about the potential effects of the pending U.S. Circuit Court case on Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order 745 on DR compensation, which could complicate DR participation in wholesale markets like the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO).  On the other hand, the report is rather light on recommendations for expanding time-of-use rate structures, which may also encourage increased DR participation.

Addressing the concern about a lack of coordination between retail and wholesale markets, the report states that market rules allowing DER participation in both markets must be aligned to ensure that DER interaction is efficient and properly valued.  The PSC argues that this goal can be accomplished with DSPs acting as aggregators in NYISO programs.  That’s a threatening statement to the third-party DR aggregators that would not want the utility/ DSP to compete with them in the wholesale markets.

Are Smart Meters Necessary?

From the consumer perspective, the report references a recent survey of residential electricity customers in New York that found that, although few customers say they are knowledgeable about their electricity usage, many place a high value on easy access to information regarding their energy use, the price of electricity, and methods for controlling their energy costs.  This indicates the potential for substantial increases in residential customer adoption of home energy management and DER products.

Notably absent from the REV plan is a recommendation regarding advanced metering infrastructure (AMI).  Electricity cost and rate increases are sticky political issues in New York currently, and PSC staff did not highlight AMI as a requirement for achieving REV goals.  The only reference to AMI actually speaks to how to avoid it: “To the extent that the cost of advanced metering equipment presents a barrier to customer adoption of DER programs or time variant pricing, utilities and market participants should consider alternatives to AMI technologies to enable program delivery.”  In other words, the report acknowledges that AMI functionality may be useful for REV purposes, but doesn’t say how that functionality can or should be achieved.

Comments on the straw proposal are sure to be plentiful from all sides.  I view this plan as less aggressive than the original REV paper, but ultimately, it is more achievable in the short term – which may help build momentum for the longer-term transformation.

 

New Approaches Boost Energy Efficiency

— August 7, 2014

National Grid’s U.S. division has rolled out a home energy management (HEM) pilot in Massachusetts that combines free hardware and special applications in a bid to get customers to cut their electricity use and help the utility manage demand more efficiently.  The pilot is targeted at customers in Worcester, which, for the past few years, has been the focal point of National Grid’s testing of smart grid technologies, including new Itron smart meters and other infrastructure upgrades.

About 15,000 customers are eligible to take part in the pilot.  They can choose from several free bundles of technology.  One of the more novel devices is a digital picture frame made by Ceiva that receives electricity consumption data from a smart meter and makes suggestions for reducing use.  Smart thermostats from Carrier and smart electrical plugs from Safeplug are also available.  Ceiva’s software, called Homeview, enables customers to view consumption data online and on mobile devices.  For the utility, Ceiva’s Entryway software suite supports the management of smart meter-connected home area networks, residential demand response (DR) capabilities, and energy efficiency programs.  The pilot is scheduled to last about 2 years at a cost of $44 million.

Cheers All Around

A number of utilities are deploying similar technology to help customers reduce energy consumption.  Glendale Water & Power and San Diego Gas & Electric support Ceiva devices as part of their efforts to encourage customers to use electricity more efficiently.  In addition, utilities like NV Energy, using EcoFactor technology, and Oklahoma Gas & Electric, which has deployed thermostats from Energate and software from Silver Spring Networks, have taken the lead on HEM programs for several years (for a deeper dive into the HEM space, see Navigant Research’s report, Home Energy Management).

Utilities like National Grid and the others mentioned here are to be commended for providing a range of technologies that help customers reduce consumption while also helping utilities meet efficiency targets.  That’s what a smarter grid is intended to do, and more utilities should do the same.

 

Utilities Warm to Cloud-Based Smart Grid Analytics

— August 5, 2014

Managed services for smart grid applications — also known as smart grid as a service (SGaaS) — haven’t exactly lit a fire under utility executives.  Despite the numerous advantages to outsourcing non-core activities like communications, software applications, monitoring, etc., many large utilities, citing security, control, and economics, prefer to keep these functions in-house.

But as smart grid deployments extend beyond the largest utilities, it seems likely that organizations constrained by finances or personnel will be obliged to consider the SGaaS model if they want to take full advantage of smart grid technology.

Vendors are repackaging their solutions in a spectrum of managed offerings, from hosted to managed to full business process outsourcing.  And cloud service providers, including Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, are actively courting utilities’ business.

On July 14, Itron announced that it has selected Microsoft’s Azure cloud platform for its managed Itron Analytics solution.  Microsoft Azure will maintain the infrastructure, allowing Itron and its customers to focus on the analytics.  Itron says its analytics solutions can be installed locally, run by the utility in the cloud, or operated and managed as part of Itron’s Total Services.

The Whole Enchilada

Itron’s Total Services boxes up the metering, communications, and meter data management, along with analytics, in a fully managed offering.  In other words, Itron will not only turn the knobs, but will also respond to the information coming in.  Texas New Mexico Power (TNMP) in Lewisville, Texas engaged Itron to provide meter data analytics for its 230,000 meters earlier this year.

TNMP told me that “a smart meter can trigger hundreds of alarms; our staff may not have the expertise to best respond, whereas Itron’s analysts do have that proficiency.”  TNMP is also working with ABB’s Ventyx unit for an outage management system (OMS) that will be hosted and administered by Ventyx.

Hefty Growth Ahead

Navigant Research’s report, Smart Grid as a Service, forecasts that the SGaaS market will grow strongly over the next decade.  Our forecast includes a host of managed services for utilities, including home energy management, advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), distribution and substation automation communications, asset management and condition monitoring, demand response, and software solutions and analytics.  We expect to see a $1.7 billion market in 2014 growing to more than $11 billion in 2023.  Software solutions and analytics sold under a software as a service (SaaS) model are the largest category of SGaaS spending today, followed by AMI managed services.

Annual SGaaS Revenue by Category, World Markets: 2014-2023

 

(Source: Navigant Research)

Challenges to the model do remain, however.  Most notably, the rate of return model that most investor-owned utilities work under encourages them to make their own capital and personnel investments.  But for smaller utilities (e.g., cooperatives and municipals here in the United States), the speed with which solutions can be deployed, and the absence of large upfront investment, will be attractive.

 

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