Navigant Research Blog

New Approaches Boost Energy Efficiency

— August 7, 2014

National Grid’s U.S. division has rolled out a home energy management (HEM) pilot in Massachusetts that combines free hardware and special applications in a bid to get customers to cut their electricity use and help the utility manage demand more efficiently.  The pilot is targeted at customers in Worcester, which, for the past few years, has been the focal point of National Grid’s testing of smart grid technologies, including new Itron smart meters and other infrastructure upgrades.

About 15,000 customers are eligible to take part in the pilot.  They can choose from several free bundles of technology.  One of the more novel devices is a digital picture frame made by Ceiva that receives electricity consumption data from a smart meter and makes suggestions for reducing use.  Smart thermostats from Carrier and smart electrical plugs from Safeplug are also available.  Ceiva’s software, called Homeview, enables customers to view consumption data online and on mobile devices.  For the utility, Ceiva’s Entryway software suite supports the management of smart meter-connected home area networks, residential demand response (DR) capabilities, and energy efficiency programs.  The pilot is scheduled to last about 2 years at a cost of $44 million.

Cheers All Around

A number of utilities are deploying similar technology to help customers reduce energy consumption.  Glendale Water & Power and San Diego Gas & Electric support Ceiva devices as part of their efforts to encourage customers to use electricity more efficiently.  In addition, utilities like NV Energy, using EcoFactor technology, and Oklahoma Gas & Electric, which has deployed thermostats from Energate and software from Silver Spring Networks, have taken the lead on HEM programs for several years (for a deeper dive into the HEM space, see Navigant Research’s report, Home Energy Management).

Utilities like National Grid and the others mentioned here are to be commended for providing a range of technologies that help customers reduce consumption while also helping utilities meet efficiency targets.  That’s what a smarter grid is intended to do, and more utilities should do the same.

 

Utilities Warm to Cloud-Based Smart Grid Analytics

— August 5, 2014

Managed services for smart grid applications — also known as smart grid as a service (SGaaS) — haven’t exactly lit a fire under utility executives.  Despite the numerous advantages to outsourcing non-core activities like communications, software applications, monitoring, etc., many large utilities, citing security, control, and economics, prefer to keep these functions in-house.

But as smart grid deployments extend beyond the largest utilities, it seems likely that organizations constrained by finances or personnel will be obliged to consider the SGaaS model if they want to take full advantage of smart grid technology.

Vendors are repackaging their solutions in a spectrum of managed offerings, from hosted to managed to full business process outsourcing.  And cloud service providers, including Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, are actively courting utilities’ business.

On July 14, Itron announced that it has selected Microsoft’s Azure cloud platform for its managed Itron Analytics solution.  Microsoft Azure will maintain the infrastructure, allowing Itron and its customers to focus on the analytics.  Itron says its analytics solutions can be installed locally, run by the utility in the cloud, or operated and managed as part of Itron’s Total Services.

The Whole Enchilada

Itron’s Total Services boxes up the metering, communications, and meter data management, along with analytics, in a fully managed offering.  In other words, Itron will not only turn the knobs, but will also respond to the information coming in.  Texas New Mexico Power (TNMP) in Lewisville, Texas engaged Itron to provide meter data analytics for its 230,000 meters earlier this year.

TNMP told me that “a smart meter can trigger hundreds of alarms; our staff may not have the expertise to best respond, whereas Itron’s analysts do have that proficiency.”  TNMP is also working with ABB’s Ventyx unit for an outage management system (OMS) that will be hosted and administered by Ventyx.

Hefty Growth Ahead

Navigant Research’s report, Smart Grid as a Service, forecasts that the SGaaS market will grow strongly over the next decade.  Our forecast includes a host of managed services for utilities, including home energy management, advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), distribution and substation automation communications, asset management and condition monitoring, demand response, and software solutions and analytics.  We expect to see a $1.7 billion market in 2014 growing to more than $11 billion in 2023.  Software solutions and analytics sold under a software as a service (SaaS) model are the largest category of SGaaS spending today, followed by AMI managed services.

Annual SGaaS Revenue by Category, World Markets: 2014-2023

 

(Source: Navigant Research)

Challenges to the model do remain, however.  Most notably, the rate of return model that most investor-owned utilities work under encourages them to make their own capital and personnel investments.  But for smaller utilities (e.g., cooperatives and municipals here in the United States), the speed with which solutions can be deployed, and the absence of large upfront investment, will be attractive.

 

Behavioral Programs Yield Savings for Customers

— August 5, 2014

A new study of four rural cooperative utilities in Minnesota demonstrates that behavioral programs based on smart meter data can help customers become more efficient electricity users.  And while the results were encouraging, the savings were not overly dramatic, falling within the range of expected outcomes based on other similar programs.

Among the four Minnesota utilities, the average annual residential electricity savings ranged from 1.8% to 2.8% for customers who opted in to the MyMeter program, a web-based system that users can access to manage consumption.  The four cooperatives involved in the programs were Beltrami Electric Cooperative, Lake Region Electric Cooperative, Stearns Electric Association, and Wright-Hennepin Cooperative Electric Association.  The total number of households was more than 14,000.

MyMeter is a software solution provided by startup Accelerated Innovations that features four key offerings for customers who opt in: help with load management and efficiency, visualization of energy use, improved billing options, and a communications platform.

Consistent Findings

The study compared the four Minnesota cooperatives’ results with two utilities in Massachusetts that had gone through an evaluation of similar efficiency programs.  Results from Western Massachusetts Electric’s program showed average savings of 1.9%, while savings among customers taking part in Cape Light Compact’s program averaged 1.5%.  Though these results were somewhat lower than the Minnesota figures, the study authors viewed them as within the range of expected savings.

Although they weren’t part of this study, it is useful to note results from Opower, another behavioral-based vendor that helps utilities’ customers lower their energy consumption.  Opower says its behavioral programs can reduce energy consumption by 1.5% to 2.5%, on average – close to what the cooperatives achieved.

One benefit of the program for the four Minnesota cooperatives is that the state’s department of commerce has accepted the results and will allow the four to count the savings toward a state-mandated goal, which calls for energy savings of 1.5% of annual retail energy sales for each utility.

The programs used by the four Minnesota cooperatives are a clear example of what can be done when utilities leverage smart meter data by giving customers access to the information and the tools they need to reduce consumption.  Other utilities that have deployed smart meters should take note.  Behavioral programs can help achieve two goals: meeting regulatory mandates for overall energy reduction and satisfying customers who want new ways to manage their energy budgets.

 

European Grids Look to RF Mesh Networks

— July 23, 2014

Communications networks for smart grids have evolved very differently in Europe than they have in North America, with power line communications (PLC) and cellular technology the leading forms of communications thus far for smart meter connectivity across the pond.  Here in the United States, the availability of unlicensed (free) spectrum in the 900 MHz band has led to the leadership of proprietary radio frequency (RF) mesh solutions, such as those provided by Itron, Silver Spring Networks, Elster, Tantalus, Landis+Gyr, and others.

The European Commission, however, has taken steps in recent months to bring 48 European nations into alignment on spectrum policy across the continent.  Specifically for smart meters and smart grid applications (and other machine-to-machine [M2M] applications), the European Conference of Postal and Telecommunications Administrations (CEPT) announced in February a framework whereby 5.6 MHz of spectrum, from 870 MHz to 875.6 MHz, will be set aside for unlicensed M2M uses, including smart meters and grids.  Details can be found in CEPT’s Electronic Communications Committee (ECC) Report 189.

Indoor Reading

CEPT cited several reasons for supporting interoperability, including the creation of economies of scale and cost reduction, reduction in the risk of cross-border interference, and greater flexibility.  The choice of sub-1 GHz spectrum, where propagation characteristics are stronger than at higher bands, makes the spectrum suitable for reading meters that may be placed indoors, even in basements — a common practice in European nations.

Ofcom, the United Kingdom’s telecommunications regulatory body, this year made amendments to its Wireless Telegraphy Act that allow for commercial operations on a license-exempt basis at 870 MHz to 876 MHz as of June 27, 2014; similar action is likely across the 48 nations that participate in CEPT.

This is good news for vendors, like those named above, but also for utilities across Europe seeking more flexibility in their smart meter and grid deployments.  RF mesh solutions are often less expensive than PLC for near area networks, though that varies widely depending upon the structure of the grid in the region as well as the topography.  Nonetheless, some smart meter/communications solutions providers have struggled financially over the past couple of years after ramp-up for American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) funding created a spike in demand that has since fallen rather sharply.

Room to Grow

Europe is poised to be the next big growth area for smart metering, thanks to the European Union’s (EU’s) 20-20-20 initiative, which a majority of European nations support.  Navigant Research estimates that current penetration of smart meters across Europe is just 15%, compared with more than 40% in North America.  While several nations have made significant progress in deployment (Italy, Scandinavia), Germany isn’t yet on board with the 20-20-20 initiative, and the United Kingdom and France are just getting rolling.  In Eastern Europe, there has been minimal activity to date, particularly in Russia, home to nearly 100 million meters.  For details on Navigant Research’s global smart meter forecast, look for our report Smart Meters, slated for publication later this year.

The Market for Smart Meters, Europe: 2013-2023

(Source: Navigant Research)

Smart meter shipments in North America are expected to total 121 million between 2014 and 2023; that total is forecast to be 221 million in Europe.  That’s more than $18 billion in anticipated revenue for smart meters — a market that surely every smart meter vendor will watch.

 

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