Navigant Research Blog

Making the Case for Short-Term Solar Forecasting in Plug-and-Play Remote Microgrids

— August 25, 2017

The microgrid market is tilting toward solar PV generation as a preferred resource. This is especially the case within the context of remote microgrids due to the economic advantages these systems present from an ongoing operations and maintenance perspective. A concentrated effort to move closer to plug-and-play microgrids is also underway, with a variety of vendors touting this approach.

One can make the case that displacing high cost diesel fuel with fuel-free solar is a valid value proposition on paper. However, a variety of ancillary technologies can also be integrated into a remote microgrid setup to transfer this concept into economic savings in the field. Such integration could displace as much diesel as possible while also limiting wear and tear on fossil fuel generators and batteries. Yet, the hype surrounding the dynamic duo of solar plus storage is obscuring the fact that different tools can help build a market for microgrids, including short-term solar forecasting.

A Game Changer in Australia

The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) of Australia has helped develop a plug-and-play microgrid offering that marries low cost short-term solar forecasting with load optimization and diesel scheduling innovations. The game changer is the ability to integrate low cost short-term solar forecasting into remote microgrids featuring ever increasing solar PV penetration over time, with early tests showing a 97% reduction in high ramp rate events and fuel savings of almost 8%.

Solar forecasting falls into two categories: long term and short term. Long-term forecasts look out over a period of time (such as a week) to optimize resource scheduling. This forecast is more relevant to grid-connected solar PV resources. Since these forecasts look out over a longer-term time horizon, error rates tend to be lower because the forecasts are far less granular than short-term solar forecasts.

Remote microgrids cannot sell any services back to a grid operator; thus, the prime focus for remote microgrids featuring high penetrations of solar PV is short-term solar forecasts. Fluctuations at this scale can lead to blackouts or inefficient use of scarce and expensive diesel fuel.

According to the analysis Navigant Research performed for CSIRO, it appears the key to commercial success of short-term solar forecasting is minimizing capital cost and error rates. One could argue that short-term solar forecasting should be the first response to managing the variability of solar energy, since it is far less costly than major hardware investments like advanced batteries.

Short-Term Forecasting Adds Value

The short-term solar forecasting technology embedded in the plug-and-play microgrid solution from CSIRO is well-suited to Australia. It also offers other forms of value. For one, it can be used in the planning process to shape the initial design. First Solar claims it can get within 1% accuracy of annual energy estimates from available solar resources, but the company has difficulty sizing batteries properly since short-term solar power production is too variable. The technology being developed by CSIRO can address this gap, developing better estimates of required capital costs during the design phase for better battery sizing.

Finally, short-term solar forecasting technology can also be an important tool utilized outside of a remote microgrid application such as in the case of virtual power plants (VPPs). Australia is emerging as a hotspot for VPPs, too. In fact, CSIRO is sponsoring a free event focused on VPPs on December 1. Australia just may be the center of digital grid innovations.

 

Exploring Potential for Integrating Transactive Energy into Virtual Power Plants

— August 4, 2017

The concepts of virtual power plants (VPPs) and transactive energy (TE) are similar in that they place prosumers—formerly passive consumers that now also produce energy—front and center in an emerging market for grid services delivered by distributed energy resources (DER). Both trends are indicative of an electric grid ecosystem that is decarbonizing, decentralizing, and digitizing.

Navigant Research believes that the future of energy rests on the foundation of cleaner, distributed, and intelligent networks of power, what we call the Energy Cloud. The VPP model presents a compelling vision of this future, as does TE. When combined, new revenue streams for diverse energy market stakeholders are inevitable. What portion of the VPP/TE plethora of possibilities will find its way into prosumer pockets?

In a new Navigant Research report entitled VPP Transactive Revenue Streams, I identify six grid services that could be enhanced by integrating TE within the VPP framework. Much more work needs to be done to put money into stakeholder pockets, so I’ve also briefly identified the regulatory challenges that need to be addressed to make these revenue streams real:

  • Localized clean energy: How can previous policy vehicles such as net metering and feed-in tariffs be accommodated or revised (or eliminated altogether) to shift from subsidy schemes to a more transparent market locally, regionally, nationally, and internationally? TE platforms operating within VPPs may be a good starting point.
  • Virtual capacity: Just as consumer supports need to be revisited for solar PV and other distributed generation, so do assumptions governing determinations of resource adequacy for wholesale system planning. Perhaps exit fees and demand charges are obsolete in a DER-rich future. What are new ways to monetize the actual non-generation-related services a power grid provides?
  • Real-time demand response: More sophisticated load-based demand response will be part of the toolkit to displace ramping fossil fuel generators up and down in response to variations in solar and wind. Harvesting load will be one of the key innovations to benefit from TE-based blockchain ledger systems.
  • Fast frequency regulation: While the VPP seeks to provide creative fast frequency response, the sources of such services are still often spread far apart. In an ideal world, localized generation, energy storage, and load could be marshaled to address frequency challenges to the grid. How can we integrate locational benefits in the pricing of such grid services?
  • Smart voltage control: The proliferation of smart inverters onto the grid represent a rich resource portfolio that can be monetized in multiple ways. TE trades would enable a similar value proposition as fast frequency response. The same challenges to pricing locational benefits apply.
  • Big data from small sources: A VPP supported by TE must rely on accurate and timely data, analytics, and insights. While prosumers may not reap large profits from the data they provide via TE, energy service providers and distribution system operators may view this as the largest revenue stream flowing from the digital grid utility transformation.

Do VPPs create opportunities for TE revenue streams or vice versa? Most likely, these two DER platforms will evolve in parallel. DER management systems that can harmonize VPP and TE platforms must incorporate market pricing mechanisms to reflect the changing value of millions of connected endpoints throughout the day. That’s quite the challenge, which also translates into a major revenue stream opportunity for the Energy Cloud ecosystem.

To learn more from two major players active in the Energy Cloud ecosystem—Enbala Power Networks and ABB—tune into the Navigant Research-hosted webinar on Tuesday, August 15 at 2 p.m. EST.

 

Utility Customer Choice Coming to the UK Residential Solar PV Plus Energy Storage Market

— July 5, 2017

Two recent announcements foreshadow the emergence of the residential solar PV plus energy storage markets in the United Kingdom. Both E.ON and EDF Energy announced plans to launch solar plus storage programs. My colleague’s recent blog highlights the costs and self-consumption values of these offerings. I focus on how these announcements also exemplify three key drivers for the deployment of distributed solar PV plus energy storage:

  • Energy storage makes solar PV dispatchable. Energy storage addresses the greatest issue associated with solar PV: standalone solar PV systems only generate electricity when the sun is shining. Both E.ON and EDF Energy recognize that energy storage is a unique resource that can function as both generation (when discharging) and load (when charging).
  • Business and finance models are accelerating market adoption. Utility service vendors are now taking lessons from solar PV developers and finding simple, money-saving distributed energy supply and financing models that appeal to customers.
  •  The long-term value proposition for energy storage is strongest behind the customer meter. These offerings portend the possibility that E.ON and EDF Energy could add these solar PV plus energy storage installation to virtual power plant (VPP) software technology in the future to participate in ancillary services markets.

These new announcements, indicative of the drivers outlined above, create value for the utility customers and service vendors in three ways:

  • Residential retail electric choice customers can now access onsite backup power by means of a no-money-down option that can ramp to full capacity much faster than conventional resources for customer backup power.
  • By offering financing for these solar PV plus energy storage systems within the United Kingdom’s residential retail choice market, EDF Energy can now retain customers for a longer term than with traditional short-term, retail choice electricity supply contracts.
  • These types of battery energy storage-enabled distributed energy resources systems can create the potential for a future dispatchable VPPs. VPPs can maximize the grid value of self-generated solar electricity by customers to allow grid operators to minimize carbon-intensive peak energy generation and manage potential grid edge distribution system challenges.

Navigant Research recently highlighted global residential solar PV plus energy storage drivers in detail in our report titled Distributed Solar PV Plus Energy Storage Systems. Given these recent UK market developments, Navigant Research anticipates that more of these types of innovative, customer-focused utility services offerings will come to the marketplace.

 

The Energy Cloud: Is Australia Supplanting New York as Global Leader?

— March 13, 2017

The fact that Audrey Zibelman is leaving her top position at the New York Public Service Commission to become CEO at the Australian National Energy Market (AEMO) is just one sign that the world’s eyes are increasingly turning to the land down under for inspiration and innovation when it comes to an emerging Energy Cloud future.

The slow pace of New York’s Reforming the Energy Vision (REV) process should really come as no surprise. Trying to create new business models for an electric utility industry that existed as a monopoly for over a century is not easily done within just a few years. Zibelman was the perfect person to jump-start this effort, given her previous posts at Viridity Energy and PJM. Now someone else will need to finish the job.

A New Playground

In what can be seen as symbolic shift, Zibelman’s new job in Australia reflects something keen observers have noted for quite some time. Australia—once seen as a backwater that only provided fertile ground for off-grid microgrid innovation—is now also emerging as a playground for new business models spanning the entire nanogrids-microgrid-virtual power plant (VPP) spectrum.

This continent continues to lead with major innovations in remote microgrid management, as evidenced by the forward-looking work of utilities such as Horizon Power. Yet, what is just as fascinating—if not more so—are multiple projects pushing the envelope in new business models that epitomize the type of innovation occurring within the VPP space. Consider these two examples:

  • AGL Energy Limited, partnering with Sunverge of San Francisco—a leading energy storage and VPP firm—announced a 5 MW VPP last year that will aggregate 1,000 homes equipped with solar PV panels and batteries. The $20 million project will allow homeowners to save on their electricity bills while also contributing valuable peaking capacity to the grid in South Australia.
  • A new Distributed Energy Exchange is being created that will help facilitate similar programs on an ongoing basis, allowing for widespread adoption of VPPs. The new exchange is designed to tap spare capacity, especially from hybrid solar PV/energy storage nanogrids, that can then contribute to the creation of VPPs. Among the leading innovators behind what has been described as a new digital marketplace is Greensync.

At present, roughly 16% of Australian power supply comes from solar PV, a much higher percentage than New York or even California. The distributed battery storage market also grew 1,000% between 2015 and 2016, according to a recent report, with total capacity representing 50 GWh.

Microgrid Capacity

According to project data collected in Navigant Research’s Microgrid Deployment Tracker, Australia ranks third in terms of total project capacity (operating, under development, and proposed projects). Within the United States, New York ranks fourth in terms of identified capacity, but first in terms of total number of projects. Of course, this is partially a result of the over 80 projects proposed under the New York Prize program, of which only a portion will actually come online.

Top 10 Countries by Total Microgrid Power Capacity, World Markets: 4Q 2016

(Source: Navigant Research)

Curious about the details of microgrids in Australia or New York? Navigant Research now offers a data services platform where a client can custom sort data for the projects in any other part of the world. Data can also be sorted by technology—such as microgrid with lithium ion batteries—or by vendor, segment, or country.

 

Blog Articles

Most Recent

By Date

Tags

Clean Transportation, Digital Utility Strategies, Electric Vehicles, Energy Technologies, Policy & Regulation, Renewable Energy, Smart Energy Practice, Smart Energy Program, Transportation Efficiencies, Utility Transformations

By Author


{"userID":"","pageName":"Virtual Power Plants","path":"\/tag\/virtual-power-plants","date":"9\/21\/2017"}