Navigant Research Blog

Wind Turbine Manufacturers Shuffle Market Share in a Record 2014

— May 20, 2015

Each spring, Navigant’s annual tally of previous-year wind turbine installation market shares are a closely watched barometer of how all the major wind turbine vendors are progressing in the global marketplace. This analysis is a key part of the 20th annual World Wind Energy Market Update 2015, produced by BTM Consult, a part of Navigant.

Last year was a high water mark for the industry overall, with 25,474 wind turbines installed, representing a record of 51,230 MW. Cumulative installed capacity climbed to 372 GW by the end of the year. China again held the title of the world’s largest annual market with 23.3 GW of new wind power installed in 2014, and Germany remained a distant second with 5.1 GW, followed by the United States with 4.9 GW.

The revival of the U.S. and German markets caused a significant shake-up in the rankings of the world’s top 10 wind turbine suppliers in 2014:

  • Vestas remained the No. 1 supplier after strong sales both onshore and offshore.
  • Siemens jumped two positions to second in 2014 due to strong sales in the offshore sector and the good shape of the German market. Interestingly, had more planned 2014 offshore wind been fully commissioned and grid-connected, Siemens would have challenged Vestas’ position for the first time in wind power history.
  • GE Energy recovered after a renewal of wind tax credit support in its home market in the United States and rose from a ranking of fifth to third in a technical draw with Goldwind. Only 31 MW separate the companies in 2014.
  • Goldwind dropped from No. 2 to No. 4 despite its strong performance at home. Its small footprint outside China means it did not benefit from the good year in Germany, Brazil, and the United States.
  • Enercon moved down two places to No. 5, as it relies largely on the growth of its home market Germany, in which it supplied nearly 40% of the turbines installed in 2014.
  • Suzlon Group rose one position to No. 6, supported by its then subsidiary Senvion (its divestment has just been finalized) and its operations in India. Navigant Research expects that with the division of the group, both Senvion and the remaining part of Suzlon will drop from the top 10 rankings in 2015.
  • United Power moved up one position as the world’s No. 7 supplier on the rush to install capacity in China in 2014.
  • Gamesa had a strong performance in the Americas and India, which allowed it to remain as one of the top 10 suppliers globally, coming in eighth place for 2014 installations, down from sixth in 2013.
  • Ming Yang remained in ninth position in 2014, pulled by the growth of its home market, China.
  • Envision crept into last place in the top 10 supplier list in 2014 thanks to the spectacular growth in its home market, becoming the fourth Chinese manufacturer in the top 10 chart. In 2013, Envision was No. 11.
  • Nordex had a record year, installing nearly 1.5 GW, up from over 1.2 GW in 2013, when it made it into the last spot in the top 10 group. However, it slipped out of the top 10 ranking based on the huge volume of wind plants installed by the other major vendors, particularly those in China. The next five in line after the top 10, in addition to Nordex, are all Chinese: XEMC, Sewind (Shanghai Electric), Dongfang, and CSIC. Acciona and Alstom are ranked a distant 23rd and 24th.

For more information, see World Wind Energy Market Update 2015.

 

Greek Construction Booming … In the United States

— May 19, 2015

Today’s outlook for construction in Greece is bleak. A standoff between the country’s Syriza government and its European creditors could spark a default of government debt and potentially lead to an exit from the European Union, and the Greek economy is in shambles after 6 years of recession. Furthermore, the head of one of Greece’s largest construction companies was arrested on charges of tax evasion.

Greek construction activity has fallen more than 95% from its pre-crisis peak and, in all likelihood, has little chance of rebounding any time soon. Across the Atlantic, though, Congress is considering a bill that could have a profound effect on a different type of Greek construction—the Greek-letter fraternity and sorority houses across the country.

Currently, a donation to a college or university Greek organization for housing provides a tax deduction of 30% of the donation amount (and, perhaps, a feeling of giving back). However, the Collegiate Housing and Infrastructure Act would allow donations to Greek groups to be fully tax deductible. The Fraternal Government Relations Coalition, a group representing 100 fraternities and sororities, is urging Congress to pass the bill. The group says that $1 billion in construction and renovation projects could begin if the bill is passed. Some of the buildings date to the 1930s, and some have seen few if any upgrades in the past several decades. The impact of $1 billion toward renovations on aging housing could have huge ramifications on energy consumption.

From Frat House to Green House

Improvements to the building envelope, more efficient HVAC equipment, better lighting, and, importantly, smarter controls could not only reduce operating costs but also improve the comfort of building occupants. Navigant Research’s Energy Efficiency Retrofits for Commercial and Public Buildings provides insight into the major technical and market trends related to these types of projects. Indeed at some universities, fraternities and sororities are already leading on energy improvements. The Kappa Alpha Order chapter house at the University of Maryland installed ceramic film on their windows as part of a sustainability initiative. Also, the Beta Theta Pi fraternity of University of Florida installed solar panels on the roof of its campus fraternity house. Broader Greek construction may have an impact positive enough to counteract all of that other stuff fraternities do.

 

The Overlooked Renewable

— May 19, 2015

Hydropower may account for just 7% of U.S. electricity generating capacity, but this sometimes overlooked renewable energy source could play a more significant role. That’s one of the conclusions from a first of its kind study on hydropower that quantifies the size, scope, and variability of hydropower in the United States.

The new U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) study (2014 Hydropower Market Report) describes a diverse fleet of hydropower plants that collectively produce enough electricity to power more than 20 million homes. The report also notes that the size of the hydropower fleet has grown in the last decade, mainly as owners have upgraded existing hydro assets, with a net increase of nearly 1.5 GW from 2005 to 2013. Total investment in hydropower amounted to more than $6 billion for refurbishments, replacements, and upgrades during that timeframe.

 One Major Hurdle

On the plus side, the report indicates that the United States has more than 77 GW of potential hydropower capacity, and that the current development pipeline encompasses a mix of proposed projects at non-powered dams, conduits, and undeveloped rivers or streams. These projects, as well as large-scale pumped storage hydropower (PSH) projects, account for the bulk of current development plans. However, there is a major hurdle that clouds this picture. The widely available bond, grant, and tax-credit programs that helped drive development of hydropower projects in recent years have gone away, and new projects are likely to depend on alternative funding sources, which more than likely means a slower pace for upcoming projects.

Without a doubt, hydropower has it limits and cannot be thought of as a viable alternative in certain regions – drought areas of the Southwest come to mind. But given its potential for adding tens of gigawatts of untapped power, it should be part of the overall energy conversation because of its proven track record as a source of clean, reliable power, despite the potential funding hurdles.

 

Google’s Autonomous Vehicle Crashes Are Misunderstood

— May 18, 2015

There’s been a fair amount of coverage in the media around the 11 reported accidents with Google’s autonomous vehicles. While some headlines about self-driving cars crashing may confuse the public about the merits of autonomous vehicle safety, the facts on the 11 accidents should ease any cause for worry: all of the 11 minor accidents were a result of driver error (from drivers of other vehicles) and had nothing to do with the autonomous vehicle functionality.

Seven of the accidents reportedly involved another vehicle rear-ending Google’s car, two were sideswipes from other vehicles, and a car running a red light was the cause of another. This information helps confirm what we already know: 94% of accidents are attributed to human error, and autonomous vehicles offer drastically improved safety capabilities that are expected to reduce the number of accidents on the road by enormous proportions. With 360-degree visibility; 100% attention in all directions at all times; and sensors keeping track of other vehicles, cyclists, and pedestrians out to a distance of nearly two football fields, autonomous vehicles use much safer and more advanced driving techniques than humans—and they won’t ever be caught texting at the wheel.

Accident Rates

Google released figures on the accident rates for their autonomous vehicles to clear up any confusion that may have been going on in the media: there have been 11 accidents in over 1.7 million miles of driving over the course of 6 years. While this is actually higher than the national average of 0.3 damaging incidents per 100,000 miles, Google has noted that the higher rates are largely due to the company’s full reporting of accidents, a practice most drivers ignore. Most importantly, director of Google’s self-driving program Chris Urmson has said that not once was the self-driving vehicle the actual cause of the accident. Thus, the at-fault accident rate for Google’s autonomous vehicles’ through nearly 2 million miles of driving is 0%.

Benefits of Automation

Autonomous vehicles have benefits that extend far beyond fewer traffic accidents. In early 2015, the International Transport Forum at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) published a report titled Urban Mobility System Upgrade: How shared self-driving cars could change city traffic. This report found that autonomous vehicles could provide the same mobility we have now (using a mid-sized European city as an example) with just 10% of the cars. Additionally, a network of autonomous vehicles could completely remove the need for on-street parking spaces while also removing 80% of off-street parking, opening vast new public and private opportunities for alternative uses of valuable city space. Considering that driver error accounts for the vast majority of vehicle accidents and Google’s autonomous cars have racked up a total of zero at-fault accidents over the course of 6 years of driving, it’s clear that the potential long-term benefits of autonomous vehicles are well worth the associated risks—even if there were one or two accidents in the process.

 

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