Navigant Research Blog

Smart Cities NYC ‘17 Themes Reveal an Evolving Market

— May 25, 2017

The revitalized Brooklyn Navy Yard brought together academia, non-profits, private industry, and government leaders from around the world for the Smart Cities NYC ’17 conference and expo. Deliberating the future intersection of technology and urban life, key themes over the 3-day conference included digital inclusion, citizen empowerment, and the potential for technology to increase resident access to essential city services. It was encouraging to see the emphasis on digital inclusion and accessibility displayed by leading suppliers and city officials.

Digital Inclusion and Accessibility

A good example of how digital inclusion is being approached was provided by Microsoft, along with its partners G3ict and World Enabled, with the launch of the Smart Cities for All Toolkit. The toolkit is designed to help city officials and urban planners make more inclusive and accessible smart cities, particularly for the more than 1 billion people with a disability around the world. Tools developed for cities include a guide for adopting information and communications technology (ICT) accessibility standards and a guide for ICT accessible procurement policies, among others. The Smart Cities for All initiative is also in the process of developing a Smart Cities Digital Inclusion Maturity Model that will help cities evaluate their progress toward their ICT accessibility and digital inclusion targets.

A desire for greater inclusivity could also be seen on the transportation side, with many cities discussing the possibilities offered by mobility as a service (MaaS) solutions. MaaS has the potential to broaden transport options and lowers costs for consumers, enabling residents to have better access to potential areas of employment or leisure. One of the common initiatives is the deployment of multimodal transportation planning apps. These solutions, as shown in Conduent’s MaaS apps in Denver, Los Angeles, and most recently Bengaluru, allow residents to choose between an array of public and private options (such as bus, train, rideshare, carshare, and bikeshare) and help inform users of the cheapest or fastest ways to travel. Eventually, cities will be able to offer incentives and discounts to riders for taking certain transport options, for example, to mitigate congestion.

Bridging the Digital Divide

The primary goal of the global smart cities movement is to utilize technology to improve the quality of life in cities. While concerns about security and privacy have been well-documented, less focus is given to the potential for smart cities to increase the divide between small and large cities, the wealthy and the poor, and the healthy and the sick. To ensure these divisions are reduced rather than worsened, smart city programs need to ensure all segments of the population reap the benefits digital technology can provide.

These themes from the conference, along with recent major projects announced in cities such as San Diego and Columbus, provide further evidence that the smart cities market is evolving from one-off pilot projects toward more holistic outcome-focused approaches that consider the needs of all city residents and communities.

 

Ford’s Big Management Shuffle Is About Changing Perceptions

— May 23, 2017

It is often harder to be a century-old company with a record of profitability than it is to be a young one with potential. This sums up the difference between legacy automakers like Ford and Tesla. With only two profitable quarters in its 14-year history, Tesla’s most recent resulted from strategic timing of paying bills and delivering cars. Meanwhile, Ford—despite periods of losses over its 114-year history—has generated immense profits, including records in the past 2 years. Nonetheless, Tesla is the darling of Wall St., while now former Ford CEO Mark Fields and communications VP Ray Day lost their jobs over the weekend.

In the 3 years since Fields succeeded Alan Mulally, the company’s stock price has dropped more than 35% despite record profits. Pre-tax 2017 profits are projected at $9 billion, which is more than Tesla’s total 2016 revenue of $7 billion. Yet, Tesla’s market cap recently topped that of both Ford and General Motors (GM). Clearly, the markets are placing their bets on the perception of where these companies are going in the coming years rather than on the fundamentals of each business.

Fields has been on point in Ford’s effort to be perceived as a forward-thinking technology company since his 2007 CES debut with Microsoft founder Bill Gates to announce SYNC. Even with repeated Las Vegas keynotes by Fields and Mulally and countless investments in developing automated driving and mobility services, investors perceive Ford and other companies that manufacture and sell physical objects as laggards compared to software startups.

Ford isn’t alone in this perception battle. Most automakers are making the pilgrimage to CES to woo the tech community. While few have been hit as hard as Ford, none of the incumbents are getting the love shown to Tesla.

In our Navigant Research Leaderboard Report: Automated Driving, Ford, GM, Renault-Nissan, and Daimler scored highest and ahead of several technology companies. Waymo is arguably somewhat ahead on the pure technology front, but automakers have necessary pieces such as manufacturing, service, distribution, and support infrastructure to make viable mobility businesses. Additionally, automakers have a proven ability to deliver physical products—not just the components and software that control them.

Ford’s leadership team, including Executive Chairman Bill Ford, EVP Joe Hinrichs, CTO Raj Nair, and many others, all supported the direction the company was heading under Fields. However, investors didn’t seem to believe in it.

During a press conference with new CEO Jim Hackett, Ford and Hackett both emphasized that the overall strategy of transformation into a mobility services company is moving full steam ahead. Hackett, who comes to the role from being chairman of Ford Smart Mobility LLC, aims to reinforce the strategy and focus on executing the plans. The elevation of Marcy Klevorn from CIO to EVP and the newly created role of President, Mobility highlights this ongoing commitment.

While Hackett’s success or failure won’t be evident for several years, Ford still needs to change investor and public perceptions to boost its stock price and the sales of vehicles it has today. That challenging near-term task falls to Mark Truby, who moves over from Ford of Europe to replace longtime PR chief Ray Day. Day and his team have had successes on the product communications front, but changing the overall perception of the company among investors who have favored high flying tech stocks has been elusive. Whether Truby or anyone else can succeed will be crucial.

 

Setting a Circular Blueprint for Business through Science

— May 23, 2017

The circular economy is a simple idea, but not a small one. It’s key for achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs) and addressing climate change, as it has the potential to close the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions gap by half.

More than 400 participants at the WBCSD Liaison Delegate Meeting in Montreux, Switzerland on March 27-30 focused on the topic, “Roadmaps for Impact in Today’s Reality.” The discussions around circular economy were lively, enthusiastic, and most importantly, ambitious. In partnership with the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), Ecofys is working on a detailed assessment and analysis that identifies the points in the economy where circular economy measures can reduce environmental impact substantially, taking the value chain into account. This report aims to set the direction for circular economy efforts by businesses, and the analysis is one of the key elements of the circular economy approach of the WBCSD.

Preeti Srivastav at WBCSD Liaison Delegates Meeting 2017

(Source: World Business Council for Sustainable Development)

For the circular economy, the dam has burst. Now is the time to start implementing.

Ecofys’ analysis highlights the scientific perspective on the circular economy and how businesses can navigate and position themselves on related efforts. The implementation of circular economy measures can help companies and even countries reduce their GHG emissions and improve economic growth.

GHG Emissions Reduction

Let’s look at the GHG emissions reduction potential. A study done by Ecofys and Circle Economy in 2016 highlights the GHG impact of the circular economy. The emissions reduction commitments made by 195 countries at the Climate Change Conference in Paris are a leap forward, but are not yet sufficient to stay on a 2°C trajectory, let alone a 1.5°C pathway. Current commitments address only half the gap between business as usual and the 1.5°C pathway. There is still a reduction of about 15 billion tonnes CO2e needed to reach the 1.5°C target. Analysis by Ecofys and Circle Economy estimates that circular economy strategies can reduce the gap between current commitments and business as usual by about half.

Economic Growth

Moving on to the economic growth potential, there are various credible analysis and studies by organizations like the Ellen MacArthur Foundation that highlight the economic potential of the circular economy in terms of GDP growth, job creation for countries and cost benefits, competitive advantage, and the security of supply, etc. for companies.

Implementation

In terms of the implementation of circular economy strategies, most companies are starting with end-of-life management, recycling initiatives, etc. These are great initiatives, but unless the end of life is managed in combination with upstream material flows, the impact will be limited.

Why? Because materials-related emissions account for more than half of total GHG emissions. Unless we focus on the upstream material flows, companies will end up spinning their wheels without actual impact.

Ecofys is currently leading a study that looks at eight key materials that are the most intensive in water, land use, and GHG emissions. The goal is to understand which companies and sectors can do the most. Food and shelter (cement, steel, forestry, agriculture, etc.) are the biggest material users, which means circular solutions in these fields bring huge opportunities and huge risks. There is a lot of potential for the food and shelter consumption categories to tap into the potential of circular economy, but we cannot take shortcuts, as both are basic human needs and we need to tread carefully.

Circular economy solutions are central. Let’s work together to do more with less.

 

Diversity of EVs to Power Sales Growth

— May 23, 2017

Plug-in EV (PEV) sales have climbed by more than one-third thus far in 2017, and the plethora of new models coming out will continue to drive sales even higher during the next decade. Despite gasoline selling for less than $2.50 per gallon in much of the United States, PEV sales increased by 39% during the first 4 months of the year, according to data from HybridCars.com.

PEVs have been available in only a limited number of segments and have appealed primarily to middle- to upper-income buyers, which has constrained sales volumes. However, by 2020, the number and variety of PEV models for sale will grow dramatically. As seen in the table below, more than 30 new or updated PEV models will be on offer within the next 4 years from both established and aspiring auto companies.

More battery EV (BEV) than plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) models are expected, as improvements in battery technology are prompting automakers to push all-electric driving. PEV sales in the United States are expected to surpass 2.1 million annually by 2030, according to Navigant Research’s Transportation Forecast: Light Duty Vehicles report.

Announced PEV Models

(Source: Navigant Research)

A Range of Options: Hyundai, Kia, and Honda

While most auto manufacturers are focusing on increasing the driving range of their BEVs, Hyundai, Kia, and Honda this year instead announced cars that focus on value and efficiency.

Hyundai and Kia each announced a trio of models based on the new IONIQ platform: a hybrid, PHEV, and BEV. The Hyundai IONIQ BEV is estimated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to go 124 miles on a charge, which is superior to many of today’s BEVs—except for the Tesla Model S and X and Chevrolet Bolt. Comparable to the Ford Focus Electric and Nissan LEAF, Hyundai’s BEV is priced competitively (under $30,000) while offering greater range, but well below the Bolt and other upcoming 200-mile BEVs. Kia is using the same platform and propulsion systems with a taller crossover body style called the Niro, which will be slightly less efficient but may be better suited to the current market trends.

Hyundai challenged its engineers 11 years ago to produce the most fuel efficient hybrid vehicle available, and the design was used for the six new variants from the two brands. According to fueleconomy.gov, the IONIQ BEV is the most efficient of all vehicles, earning a 136 combined mpg equivalent rating. The car also won the greenest vehicle award from the ACEEE.

During an extended test drive earlier this year, the IONIQ was a pleasure to steer through turns and had quick acceleration and a comfortable interior. It is a very competitive offering. The company is developing a longer range BEV, but the added battery mass means it won’t be as energy efficient, according to Hyundai.

Honda’s upcoming Clarity EV is expected to travel around 80 miles on a single charge, which is well below the standard of 110 miles or more for current BEVs. The company has taken some heat for announcing a car that is “uncompetitive” from the start in both range and price, as it is expected to list for more than the LEAF or Fusion and near the price of the longer range Bolt.

EVS Conference

The international EV community will be gathering in October at the 30th EVS Conference in Stuttgart, Germany. Billed as the largest trade fair and conference event for electric mobility, EVS features manufacturers of EVs, charging infrastructure, and mobility software and solutions, as well as researchers presenting papers on the latest innovations. Navigant Research will be discussing the latest EV innovations during a presentation at the conference.

 

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