Navigant Research Blog

Diversity of EVs to Power Sales Growth

— May 23, 2017

Plug-in EV (PEV) sales have climbed by more than one-third thus far in 2017, and the plethora of new models coming out will continue to drive sales even higher during the next decade. Despite gasoline selling for less than $2.50 per gallon in much of the United States, PEV sales increased by 39% during the first 4 months of the year, according to data from HybridCars.com.

PEVs have been available in only a limited number of segments and have appealed primarily to middle- to upper-income buyers, which has constrained sales volumes. However, by 2020, the number and variety of PEV models for sale will grow dramatically. As seen in the table below, more than 30 new or updated PEV models will be on offer within the next 4 years from both established and aspiring auto companies.

More battery EV (BEV) than plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) models are expected, as improvements in battery technology are prompting automakers to push all-electric driving. PEV sales in the United States are expected to surpass 2.1 million annually by 2030, according to Navigant Research’s Transportation Forecast: Light Duty Vehicles report.

Announced PEV Models

(Source: Navigant Research)

A Range of Options: Hyundai, Kia, and Honda

While most auto manufacturers are focusing on increasing the driving range of their BEVs, Hyundai, Kia, and Honda this year instead announced cars that focus on value and efficiency.

Hyundai and Kia each announced a trio of models based on the new IONIQ platform: a hybrid, PHEV, and BEV. The Hyundai IONIQ BEV is estimated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to go 124 miles on a charge, which is superior to many of today’s BEVs—except for the Tesla Model S and X and Chevrolet Bolt. Comparable to the Ford Focus Electric and Nissan LEAF, Hyundai’s BEV is priced competitively (under $30,000) while offering greater range, but well below the Bolt and other upcoming 200-mile BEVs. Kia is using the same platform and propulsion systems with a taller crossover body style called the Niro, which will be slightly less efficient but may be better suited to the current market trends.

Hyundai challenged its engineers 11 years ago to produce the most fuel efficient hybrid vehicle available, and the design was used for the six new variants from the two brands. According to fueleconomy.gov, the IONIQ BEV is the most efficient of all vehicles, earning a 136 combined mpg equivalent rating. The car also won the greenest vehicle award from the ACEEE.

During an extended test drive earlier this year, the IONIQ was a pleasure to steer through turns and had quick acceleration and a comfortable interior. It is a very competitive offering. The company is developing a longer range BEV, but the added battery mass means it won’t be as energy efficient, according to Hyundai.

Honda’s upcoming Clarity EV is expected to travel around 80 miles on a single charge, which is well below the standard of 110 miles or more for current BEVs. The company has taken some heat for announcing a car that is “uncompetitive” from the start in both range and price, as it is expected to list for more than the LEAF or Fusion and near the price of the longer range Bolt.

EVS Conference

The international EV community will be gathering in October at the 30th EVS Conference in Stuttgart, Germany. Billed as the largest trade fair and conference event for electric mobility, EVS features manufacturers of EVs, charging infrastructure, and mobility software and solutions, as well as researchers presenting papers on the latest innovations. Navigant Research will be discussing the latest EV innovations during a presentation at the conference.

 

Carshare Services Gear Up for Gig Economy

— May 5, 2017

Younger urban dwellers are increasingly joining the ranks of carsharing, ride-hailing, and delivery service workers, as more and more companies are customizing their offerings for participants in the new gig economy. Driving jobs that offer flexible hours and attract predominantly younger drivers are known as “gigs.” Carshare companies see renting out their vehicles to these independent drivers as an opportunity to grow revenue and increase their brand awareness. Since Navigant Research expects revenue from carsharing programs in North America to surpass $1.1 billion annually by 2021, the combination of gigs and carsharing services represents a significant opportunity.

Maven Gig

Maven, a mobility company launched by General Motors (GM), announced partnerships on May 3 for its Gig program, which includes several services that simplify the process of renting vehicles for multiple services. With Maven’s mobile app, a rented vehicle can be used by drivers for Instacart, a grocery delivery service; GrubHub, a take-out food delivery service; and Roadie, which uses passenger vehicles to deliver packages. The rented vehicles can also be used by drivers for the ride-hailing companies that Maven has had relationships with, Uber and Lyft. Drivers can access their revenue, vehicle, and driving data for all services through one web portal and mobile application.

Maven will broaden exposure for GM’s Bolt battery EV by exclusively offering the car in its Gig program for rent for $229 per week. The program initially launched in San Diego and will include free charging at EVgo charging stations in the area. Drivers can save up to $100 per month in fuel when compared to driving a gasoline-powered vehicle, according to Rachel Bhattacharya, director of Commercial Mobility and AV Fleet Operations at GM.

Bhattacharya said having the vehicles available to drivers full-time enables them to work for multiple companies and switch tasks to match peaks in demand. For example, they can drive passengers during the morning rush hour and then deliver food at lunch and packages in the afternoon. After San Diego, Gig will be available in San Francisco later this year, and then in cities in other states, said Bhattacharya.

Promoting the Bolt is likely to boost EV awareness in areas where Maven Gig is available, as both drivers and passengers new to EVs will gain exposure to the capabilities of the vehicles. Bhattacharya said drivers receive in-person training on the differences in operating and charging vehicles, as well as information from both Chevrolet and Maven.

Maven City Carsharing

Maven City carsharing is available in 13 markets across the United States. In Denver, 200 Maven vehicles are available for rent, including the Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid. Lindsey Whiddon, general manager at Maven General Motors, said she is working with property managers to locate Maven rentals and charging infrastructure for the Volts close to the many new high rise apartments and condos in Denver. “Millennials have been quicker to adopt [carsharing],” said Whiddon, so she is prioritizing putting Maven vehicles close to highly dense areas where younger people may not have cars.

Carsharing and Gigs Not Just for Maven

Peer-to-peer carsharing company Getaround also recognizes this opportunity and is targeting freelance drivers via a partnership with Uber that allows vehicles to be rented for $5 per hour, including insurance, gas, and unlimited miles. The vehicles, which initially are available in San Francisco, are being provided by Xchange Leasing, Uber’s leasing program. Getaround also recently raised an additional $45 million in capital investment to continue expanding its carsharing service, which recently moved into the Tri-State New Jersey area. Maven has a similar deal with Lyft to provide GM vehicles to drivers through the Express Drive program.

 

Road Tests to Provide Critical Vehicle Communications Data

— February 2, 2017

There are several projects launching in 2017 expected to generate data that will lead to a future where vehicles talk both to each other and to infrastructure. This shift would not only increase safety, but also ease traffic congestion within range. Leading chipmakers, automakers, and communications companies are teaming up in field trials and in co-development of vehicle-to-everything (V2X) technologies.

The US Department of Transportation paved the way for vehicle communications standards by developing the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard, No. 150, on vehicle-to-vehicle communications. Published in the Federal Register in January 2017, the proposed standard would require manufacturers to install dedicated short-range communication (DSRC) radios into new vehicles within the next 4-5 years.

January’s Consumer Electronics Show (CES) was the launchpad for several announcements on V2X communications. AT&T, Delphi, and Ford are co-developing a platform to enable vehicles to communicate with each other as well as infrastructure to enhance vehicle safety and security and reduce traffic congestion. The platform will use AT&T’s LTE cellular network to expand communications beyond the shorter range DSRC communications, which are based on a variant of Wi-Fi.

Also at CES, Audi, Ericsson, Qualcomm, SWARCO Traffic Systems, and the University of Kaiserslautern announced they were collaborating on the Connected Vehicle to Everything of Tomorrow project. The project is also a V2X trial, this time using the 3rd Generation Partnership Project’s Release 14 standard. It will include 4G and 5G LTE communications between vehicles and with infrastructure and pedestrians.

Sales of light duty vehicles with built-in DSRC in North America are expected to surpass 20 million annually by 2023, while sales of vehicles with 5G communications are expected to top 1 million annually by 2025, according to Navigant Research’s recently published Connected Vehicles report.

Connected Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Communications Type, North America: 2020-2025

(Source: Navigant Research)

Communications Innovations

Chipmaker Intel is expanding its automotive profile with products for both in-vehicle and external communications. Also at CES, Intel announced the Intel GO automotive and 5G platforms. The 5G platform “allows automakers to develop and test a broad range of 5G use cases and applications.” Intel’s solution will enable environmental and traffic data to be brought into the vehicle to be processed by the company’s internal chips to enhance the safety and efficiency of automated vehicle driving functions.

In January, the Volkswagen Group announced that it would be adding 5G capability to future I.D. electric vehicles to assist the company’s automated driving features. According to HybridCars.com, the faster communications will be used in vehicles beginning in 2020.

Collecting field data on how communications from infrastructure can enhance vehicle safety and performance is also the aim of a consortium in Singapore. The NTU-NXP Smart Mobility Consortium is developing a test bed using 50 vehicles and 35 data collection units along roadways that will capture video of vehicle activities on the campus of Nanyang Technological University. The project will relay information to the vehicles about driving conditions, traffic signals, and parking availability to enable drivers to make effective navigation decisions.

The Road Ahead

To approach full self-driving capability, automated vehicles will increasingly rely on data broadcast via DSRC and 5G from other vehicles and infrastructure to monitor traffic flow and alert the vehicles of potentially dangerous situations. The next few years will be spent analyzing the data from collaborations and road tests formed in 2017 to understand the efficiency and responsiveness of automated vehicles in a variety of real-world situations.

 

Companies Aim to Fast Track Ultrafast EV Charging

— January 31, 2017

The fast charging of EVs at power levels surpassing 350 kW is quickly moving from concept to reality. In 2016, momentum accelerated for developing solutions that can charge a battery electric vehicle (BEV) to 80% capacity in 5 to 10 minutes, and 2017 will see the first solutions available. Many automakers are excited about the potential for closing the gap between electric and gasoline refueling, though there is currently no definitive standard or available light duty vehicle charging at 350 kW or higher.

At January’s Consumer Electronics Show, EV charging company ChargePoint unveiled the ChargePoint Express Plus, a modular charging system that can be upgraded to higher power levels over time, up to a maximum of 400 kW. Power to multiple charging stations are provided by ChargePoint-designed Power Cubes, which offer up to 500 kW of direct current (DC) output and can be coupled with other Cubes to accommodate more charging stations at a single location. According to the company, power can be distributed to up to four charging stations from a single Power Cube, and power output is dynamically distributed to the vehicles being charged.

ChargePoint Express charging stations will be constructed of multiple Power Modules that deliver up to 31.25 kW of power each, a unique approach for future-proofing charging stations. ChargePoint says the systems will be available in July 2017.

ChargePoint Express Plus

(Source: ChargePoint)

Last November, several automakers announced plans to co-develop a fast charging network in Europe that will provide 350 kW charging. Just a few weeks later, Energy company Enel joined with Verbund, Renault, Volkswagen, Nissan, and BMW in announcing EVA+, a fast charging network connecting Italy and Austria that will enable BEVs to be charged in 20 minutes. Never one to be upstaged, Elon Musk tweeted in December that Tesla Motors would be adding capabilities to the SuperCharger network to surpass 350 kW of power delivery for its proprietary network.

With the knowledge that BEVs are being developed with much faster charging capabilities, companies considering adding DC fast charging stations are now challenged on how to future-proof their investments. The tradeoff is between keeping the not inconsequential cost of offering DC fast charging under control today while preventing the sites from having to undergo costly increases in power delivery from the utility and having to replace the existing equipment in future years.

Companies investing in 350 kW fast charging stations today are hard pressed to get payback in electricity sales within 3-5 years, so to ask them to make ready a location with distribution equipment and capacity for up to 1 GW of EV charging is a tall order. Site hosts anticipating the ultrafast future of charging will also need to work with utilities to identify locations where they will not be disrupting the distribution grid.

 

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