Navigant Research Blog

Paving the Road for Progress on Climate Change?

Casey Talon — September 25, 2015

The Obama era has been blackened by Congressional dissent and contention on issues across the board—ranging from raising the minimum wage to climate change. As a result of the stalemates in progress for energy policy development through legislation, the president has released a steady stream of Presidential Actions that outline—and in some cases mandate—federal leadership on climate change while circumventing the protest lines of the legislators. What lies ahead for U.S. energy policy is up for debate, what with the upcoming 2016 election, and the Obama administration has been busy in its attempts to set that stage:

  • International collaboration—United States-China Climate Leaders’ Declaration (9/14/15): 18 United States and 11 Chinese cities, states, and provinces have agreed to demonstrate leadership in the climate change battle with specific targets, commitments to report greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, climate action plans, and coordination in efforts to make progress on combating climate change.
  • Federal mandate—Executive Order on a Decade of Federal Sustainability (3/19/15): Includes targets of 40% GHG emissions reductions by 2025 relative to a 2008 baseline.
  • Rulemaking: Most notable of all was the August 3 announcement of the Clean Power Plan by the president and the Environmental Protection Agency. This landmark ruling leveraged the authority of the Clean Air Act to establish GHG emissions reductions mandates for power plants across the country.

So, Where Do the Candidates for 2016 Stand?

While it may be hard to believe the presidential election is still over a year away with all of the media hype and constant advertising, an early review of the contenders illustrates a very uncertain future for U.S. climate change policy. A quick scan from the official campaign pages of a few of the candidates shows a rough road ahead:

  • Hilary Clinton’s campaign slogan on climate change is “Making America the clean energy superpower of the 21st century.” All focus is on renewables, and there is no stated stance on regulation.
  • Bernie Sanders aims for international leadership and proposes to tax carbon and methane. His campaign further opposes the Keystone XL pipeline.
  • Donald Trump has not directly addressed climate change policy in his campaign events or via his website. According to The Washington Post, he did speak on the topic on the Palin radio show in late July, stating: “You look back and they were calling it global cooling and global warming and global everything, but if you look back and the biggest tornadoes were in the 1890s, the biggest hurricanes were in the 1860s and 1870s.”
  • Jeb Bush’s campaign page also omits climate change as an issue. His perspective on the issue is foggy at best. A series of stories in the spring highlighted his uncertainty on any official stance. According to The Nation, he was quoted early on in his governorship as stating, “At this point, global warming is not the top priority.” Recently he has been even more vague: “I don’t think it’s the highest priority,” he said in May, adding, “I don’t think we should ignore it, either.”

The year ahead holds many questions on climate and energy policy, but federal leadership will likely continue through the non-legislative channels of the president as the candidates set their eyes on the office.

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