Navigant Research Blog

Monetizing Energy Efficiency: Creating Additional Value Streams for Your Customers

— December 8, 2017

Much is transforming the global energy landscape these days. Building technologies are progressing from single point solutions to system and platform-based solutions utilizing the latest in smart digital technologies and the Internet of Things. Utilities are reshaping entire business models and strategies to integrate and enable a swiftly growing and diverse stock of distributed energy resources. These are just two of the more visible market evolutions. But as with most industry transformations, change does not happen all at once.

Large groups of buildings (of all sizes) lie along the continuum of advancement with regard to building technologies. Most organizations realize the potential benefits of energy efficiency; however, there are still hurdles that could prevent these types of projects from moving forward. According to a recent Navigant Research report, Energy Efficient Buildings Global Outlook, these hurdles include confusion about which technologies to adopt, what internal resources would be required to manage an advanced building, and how to best understand and calculate payback and ROI to get a project approved.

On the supply side, utilities are also realizing the benefits of making the buildings in their service territories more efficient. Utilities must be concerned with their conglomeration of generation assets to ensure a reliable future energy supply. Energy efficiency and demand-side management (DSM) are two ways that utilities manage this critical task. In fact, at less than 3 cents/kWh, energy efficiency is the most cost-effective source of energy compared to all other sources of generation.

For decades, utilities have had success reaching large commercial and industrial and even residential customers with incentive-based DSM programs like energy efficiency and demand response. PJM is an example of a regional transmission organization (RTO) that understands and actively pursues energy efficiency initiatives to include in its regional capacity planning. Over time, PJM has encouraged over a gigawatt of annual energy efficiency projects in its current and future capacity markets.

The one hurdle faced by utilities and RTOs is awareness of these programs. Small- to medium-sized businesses, energy service companies (ESCOs), and even larger commercial customers may not be fully aware of the availability of these programs. Incentives can go a long way toward clearing energy efficiency project hurdles. For example, utility and RTO incentives may be the final project piece that enables payback and ROI calculations to meet internal financial requirements. Organizations can benefit from working with outside specialists in this area to help understand what is available and how best to assess and include incentives in efficiency and sustainability initiatives.

Join the Conversation

Navigant Research is hosting a free webinar, Monetizing Energy Efficiency: Creating Additional Value Streams for Your Customers, on December 12 at 2 p.m. EST. I will be joined by Meg Kelly, Senior Director of Energy Efficiency, and Russ Newbold, Director of Sales Operations at CPower. Learn the benefits of utilizing PJM capacity credits as a value to you and your customers.

The webinar will help end-use customers—and ESCOs that serve customers—learn what capacity credits are, how to attain them, and how to make them a part of the value chain to earn more energy efficiency project business. This webinar will outline how to benefit from these credits and, for ESCOs, how to add value to proposals all the way through receiving the payments.

 

Where Are All the Meter Manufacturers in Transactive Energy Projects?

— December 7, 2017

That’s a question I’ve been asking myself recently. The answer seems to be “nowhere.” In the 110 or so trials of utility industry-related blockchain and transactive energy (TE) Navigant Research has identified, meter vendors are at best the silent, invisible partners of other companies. When asking leading blockchain and TE startups about the meter hardware in their trials, the stock response has been “nothing is available that supports our requirements, so we built our own.” So, why aren’t meter vendors making more noise about a potentially significant growth opportunity?

Blockchain is the hottest, most hyped technology in the energy industry, and TE is its hottest use case. If current TE trials prove successful, I expect rapid adoption, particularly in countries with high penetration of solar, supported by ratepayer-funded incentive mechanisms. TE’s market-based incentives could replace subsidies. Large-scale, fully automated TE platforms have a number of requirements:

  • TE pricing requires visibility into local network conditions, including network assets and distributed energy resources.
  • Smart contracts—which determine when transactions are opened and closed—must be hosted locally and fed with market data.
  • Meters measure and record all TE power supplied and consumed.
  • Communication networks will transport data to interested parties.
  • Transactions must be recorded to the blockchain.
  • Significant distributed compute power will support automation of the TE platform.

Meter Vendors Can Support Many TE Functional Requirements

TE markets will have to be settled in much the same way as wholesale power markets are today, in accordance with strict market regulations and technology standards. This is a complex system, where a lot of trust will be placed on the technology platform. Meter vendors have many capabilities that could put them in a commanding position to lead the TE space:

  • Smart meters already provide visibility at the point of consumption.
  • Advanced metering infrastructure communications could provide the data networks on which TE runs.
  • Smart meter data concentrators could be used as nodes for the blockchain, store smart contracts, provide compute power for localized pricing calculations, and so on.

There is another feature that meter vendors have so far overlooked: it is difficult to amend records already committed to the blockchain. Consequently, it is vital to ensure that transaction data is correct before it is recorded. This will be a difficult task in a largely automated TE platform. While smart meter accuracy is generally high—between 99.5% and 99.9%—a validation algorithm is run regularly to estimate missing or erroneous meter readings. In TE, a similar algorithm must run on transaction data. However, it is likely that validation will be distributed alongside the ledger, rather than a centralized batch process. Most meter vendors also offer a meter data management system with an associated validation algorithm.

Despite meter vendors’ requisite hardware and software, they are nowhere to be seen in the TE world. There are many reasons: ongoing major smart meter rollouts command a lot of attention, and there is little money to be made in TE right now. However, I would have expected at least one vendor to have taken the leap into the world of TE. The biggest risk is that meter vendors are trapped in the old utility world, where metering innovation was driven by utilities—with whom meter vendors have decades-old relationships—and adoption of new metering technologies was slow and incremental.

TE adoption will be different. It is driven by startups that have no previous relationship with meter vendors. These startups could develop their own validation algorithms; they could choose to use public 5G networks for data communications; or they may decide to deploy their own distributed compute. If this happens, meter vendors will miss out on potentially billions of dollars of value created by TE. Meter vendors must wake up to the reality of TE and the opportunities and threats the market presents.

 

Is Finland Europe’s Best Hope for Microgrids?

— December 7, 2017

While Europe is considered a global leader in moving toward a low carbon energy future, the tightly regulated EU markets have several features that severely limit the development of microgrids:

  • The focus has been on large-scale renewable energy development such as offshore wind, which requires massive investment in transmission infrastructure.
  • Deployment of distributed energy resources such as rooftop solar PV has primarily been based on feed-in tariffs, a business model precluding the key defining feature of a microgrid—the ability to seal off resources from the larger grid via islanding.
  • EU markets are tightly interwoven and methods to address the variability of renewables such as wind and solar lean toward cross-border trading, not localized microgrids.

As the forthcoming update to Navigant Research’s Microgrid Deployment Tracker demonstrates, Europe represents approximately 9% of the global microgrid market. The vast majority of microgrids deployed in Europe are actually on islands in the Mediterranean, the Canary Islands off the coast of Spain, or projects such as Bornholm or the Faroe Islands of Denmark.

I recently attended the International Symposium on Microgrids in Newcastle, Australia at the CSIRO Energy Centre. One could argue that Australia is the current global hotspot for commercialization of the Energy Cloud ecosystem. I have certainly made that argument in the past.

Fortune in Finland?

Perhaps the most surprising revelation at the conference was this: a unique confluence of factors make Finland the best opportunity for microgrids in Europe. Finland is not only the global leader on smart meter deployments, with 99% of its 3.5 million customers having access to this technology, but it also has a deregulated wholesale and retail market that features 83 distribution system operators (DSOs), with the largest distribution networks composed of 200,000 customers.

Unlike its neighbors Sweden and Norway, Finland lacks massive hydroelectric resources. What hydro it has tends to be run-of-the-river systems, and some of the smaller scale systems are microgrid-friendly. Most importantly, Finland is a country that does not fully share the stellar reliability associated with the EU grid. During blackouts in 2011 and 2012, as many as 570,000 customers lost power for an extended period of time. This outage raised the issue of the vulnerability of the Finland grid to winter storms due to overhead lines running through the country’s deeply forested regions that can sag from snow.

Pro-Consumer Policy Changes

In a quick response to these power outages, new regulations have been put in place that limit power outages to 6 hours annually for urban residents and 36 hours for rural customers by 2028. In a policy that would likely scare utilities in the US, DSOs are required to compensate customers for power outages. If a power outage lasts longer than 12 hours, the DSO must pay the customer 10% of its annual distribution fee, and compensation goes up gradually to a maximum of 200% with interruptions longer than 288 hours.

The first option of most DSOs to respond to these new reliability regulations is to place distribution lines underground. However, that can be expensive, especially given the low density of some DSO customer bases. According to research performed by Lappeeranta University of Technology (LUT), the lowest cost option for 10%‒40% of the medium voltage branch lines would be low voltage direct current microgrids. One such LVDC microgrid project, developed by LUT in collaboration with DSO Suur-Savon Sähkö, was developed in 2012, incorporating solar PV and batteries. Though only one other microgrid currently is operating, Finland represents an ideal market for utility distribution microgrids.

 

Telcos Aggressively Expanding Smart City Services

— December 7, 2017

Among the essential building blocks for the smart cities market are communication networks that connect the sensors, controllers, cameras, and other hardware infrastructure capturing valuable data from the city environment. The need for urban connectivity is creating new opportunities for the telcos responsible for providing public wired or wireless communication services to government, consumers, and businesses. Telcos are increasingly making strategic acquisitions and extending their footprint into solutions and services for smart cities and Internet of Thing (IoT) application areas. Whether through established technology such as 3G/4G or potential disruptors like 5G and narrowband-IoT (NB-IoT), cellular providers are aiming to become the leading suppliers of connectivity for smart cities.

Significant Acquisitions and Service Offerings in North America

In recent years, a number of telcos have made bold expansions into the smart cities market. Verizon, for example, has been working to expand its presence in that industry. It made a major move to extend its footprint with the acquisition of smart street lighting and sensor network provider Sensity Systems in late 2016. Verizon is supporting a wide range of smart city applications, including transportation, public safety, city management, and smart buildings.

AT&T has also significantly increased its visibility in the market since its initial smart cities launch in 2015—notably through its role in the Atlanta and San Diego IoT platform deployment projects. It is supplying Bluetooth and Wi-Fi for short-range connectivity, plus fiber and LTE for backhaul to the cloud.

In early 2017, AT&T obtained exclusive rights to distribute the sensor nodes from Current powered by GE through a reseller agreement in the US and Mexico. AT&T will be the commercial lead on future smart cities projects, with Current as its technology provider.

Significant Global Acquisitions and Offerings

Telefónica, the Spanish-based global telecom provider, has also been targeting smart city opportunities. It was lead commercial partner in the SmartSantander project, which involved deployment of over 20,000 devices in Santander and the surrounding area (including sensors, repeaters, gateways, etc.).

French carrier and service provider Orange is leveraging its expertise in 4G, fiber, LoRa, Wi-Fi, and Bluetooth to install a network of connected sensors for Romania’s Alba Lulia Smart City 2018 project. Telefónica and Orange Group are key players in the development of FIWARE standards—an open source initiative that aims to establish a standard for smart cities based on the FIWARE platform.

Most recently, Telestra, an Australian telecom company, acquired fleet management systems provider MTData and created a partnership with Melbourne-based Smart Parking. The company has already won contracts to install Smart Parking’s sensors in five Australian council regions.

Telco Expansion Challenges Non-Cellular Connectivity Providers

The aggressive telco expansion into the smart cities market should serve as a warning shot to other providers of urban connectivity such as RF mesh and Wi-Fi players. These providers should quickly move to protect market share by emphasizing their relative advantages over cellular (e.g., private networks, lower operating costs) and developing more vertical solution partnerships and connectivity capabilities.

While most cities are likely to have multiple providers and types of connectivity for different use cases, cellular providers are making a clear push to capture the high bandwidth segment of the smart city communication networks value chain. There is evidence that resistance to public cellular is declining in the utility sector. With the deployment of new cellular technologies such as NB-IoT and 5G on the horizon, the same is likely true for cities.

 

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