2Q 2018

Charging Ahead with EV Analytics

The electricity industry is waking up to the prospect of large-scale deployments of electric vehicles (EVs). And well it might, as all signs point to a future where EVs are increasingly common. Annual demand from EVs for electricity could exceed 400 TWh by 2035, creating the largest opportunity for new load growth in a generation. However, the vehicles will also pose significant problems to network utilities, particularly in areas where grids are already constrained.

EV integration is a complex and unique issue. When EVs charge, they are loads; when idle, they are storage; and when dispatching back into a network, they are sources of supply. They also move around, so utilities will never have full visibility of their location. EV fleets and buses present different opportunities than individually owned cars. There is a complex and competitive ecosystem of stakeholders, some of which will be in direct competition with incumbent energy suppliers—there is little room for monopoly market thinking, even for vertically integrated utilities. The customer base is also diverse, with different needs and requirements. But complexity is only one issue. Utilities must prepare themselves for a dynamic and open future where change and uncertainty are the only constants. It is vital the industry acknowledges that the electrification of transport is a digitization project because EV business models rely heavily on Internet of Things (IoT) devices and an associated analytics platform. A handful of utilities are doing this right now; many more recognize the EV opportunity but have not yet built solid strategies.

This Navigant Research white paper, commissioned by SAS and Intel, analyzes the future EV market and details the many opportunities and sizeable threats the vehicles create. It focuses on the data and analytics requirements of EV infrastructure and provides recommendations to utilities that are developing EV strategies. The white paper also details numerous future EV-related business models, the adoption of which will vary depending on market and regulatory requirements.

Pages 23
Tables | Charts | Figures 8

  • What opportunities do EVs offer utilities?
  • What risks do EVs pose to existing utility business models?
  • Why are EVs a type of Internet of Things (IoT) deployment?
  • What are the potential business models utilities could adopt to profit from EV growth?
  • What are the data and analytics requirements of these business models?
  • How should utilities prepare an IT infrastructure for EV growth?

  • Utility strategy, innovation, and digital directors
  • Utility regulators
  • IT directors
  • EV manufacturers
  • Charging point manufacturers
  • Investor community

Executive Summary

Context

Recommendations

EV Growth Creates Opportunities and Threats

EVs Present the Biggest Load Growth in a Generation

New Loads Can Cause Problems for Network Management

The Unique and Rapidly Evolving Demands of E-Mobility

The E-Mobility Ecosystem Is Complex

The E-Mobility Customer Base Is Diverse

Competition in E-Mobility Will Be Fierce

EV Business Models Will Evolve Rapidly

Infrastructure Business Models

Grid Services Business Models

Fleet Conversion and Management Business Models

Mobility Services Business Models

EV Business Model Development Is a Four-Step Process

Plan EV Analytics Infrastructure Today

A Minority of Utilities Have Substantive EV Strategies

Create a Strategy Before EV Growth Accelerates

Analytics Are Essential to Business Model Development

Redefining EVs as IoT Highlights the Value of Data Integration

Embed Analytics throughout the EV Ecosystem

Involve IT in EV Planning at an Early Stage

Adopt a Flexible Approach to EV Technology Infrastructure

Match Business Model Inflection Points with Technology Developments

Incorporate Analytics into the Project Lifecycle

Strategy and Planning

Program Design

Program Buildout

Program Operations

EV Data and Analytics Requirements Highlight the Need for a CDO Role

Collaborate to Maximize Access to EV Data

Manage Visibility Gaps

  • Plug-In EV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2012-2026
  • Road Transportation Electricity Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Share of Oil Consumption, World Markets: 2015
  • EV Business Model Lanes
  • Transport-to-Grid Lifecycle Steps
  • EV Technology Infrastructure Is an IoT Ecosystem with Pervasive Analytics
  • EV Business Model Maturity Curve
  • Analytics Requirements for Network Planning