The electricity industry is waking up to the prospect of large-scale deployments of electric vehicles (EVs). And well it might, as all signs point to a future where EVs are increasingly common. Annual demand from EVs for electricity could exceed 400 TWh by 2035, creating the largest opportunity for new load growth in a generation. However, the vehicles will also pose significant problems to network utilities, particularly in areas where grids are already constrained.
EV integration is a complex and unique issue. When EVs charge, they are loads; when idle, they are storage; and when dispatching back into a network, they are sources of supply. They also move around, so utilities will never have full visibility of their location. EV fleets and buses present different opportunities than individually owned cars. There is a complex and competitive ecosystem of stakeholders, some of which will be in direct competition with incumbent energy suppliers—there is little room for monopoly market thinking, even for vertically integrated utilities. The customer base is also diverse, with different needs and requirements. But complexity is only one issue. Utilities must prepare themselves for a dynamic and open future where change and uncertainty are the only constants. It is vital the industry acknowledges that the electrification of transport is a digitization project because EV business models rely heavily on Internet of Things (IoT) devices and an associated analytics platform. A handful of utilities are doing this right now; many more recognize the EV opportunity but have not yet built solid strategies.
This Navigant Research white paper, commissioned by SAS and Intel, analyzes the future EV market and details the many opportunities and sizeable threats the vehicles create. It focuses on the data and analytics requirements of EV infrastructure and provides recommendations to utilities that are developing EV strategies. The white paper also details numerous future EV-related business models, the adoption of which will vary depending on market and regulatory requirements.
Executive Summary
Context
Recommendations
EV Growth Creates Opportunities and Threats
EVs Present the Biggest Load Growth in a Generation
New Loads Can Cause Problems for Network Management
The Unique and Rapidly Evolving Demands of E-Mobility
The E-Mobility Ecosystem Is Complex
The E-Mobility Customer Base Is Diverse
Competition in E-Mobility Will Be Fierce
EV Business Models Will Evolve Rapidly
Infrastructure Business Models
Grid Services Business Models
Fleet Conversion and Management Business Models
Mobility Services Business Models
EV Business Model Development Is a Four-Step Process
Plan EV Analytics Infrastructure Today
A Minority of Utilities Have Substantive EV Strategies
Create a Strategy Before EV Growth Accelerates
Analytics Are Essential to Business Model Development
Redefining EVs as IoT Highlights the Value of Data Integration
Embed Analytics throughout the EV Ecosystem
Involve IT in EV Planning at an Early Stage
Adopt a Flexible Approach to EV Technology Infrastructure
Match Business Model Inflection Points with Technology Developments
Incorporate Analytics into the Project Lifecycle
Strategy and Planning
Program Design
Program Buildout
Program Operations
EV Data and Analytics Requirements Highlight the Need for a CDO Role
Collaborate to Maximize Access to EV Data
Manage Visibility Gaps