3Q 2019

Distributed Renewables Overview

Market Drivers and Barriers, Technology Trends, Competitive Landscape, and Global Market Forecasts

Declining technology costs and innovative long-term price-based instruments support the ongoing development and grid parity of distributed renewable (DRen) energy sources. Many DRen generation assets are placed in some of the world’s remotest environments to support electrification needs for behind-the-meter (BTM) and onsite generation. Benefits of deploying DRen assets include greater energy security and resiliency along with emission reductions. Regional and local governments have supported policies to encourage greater deployment of renewable technologies. Innovative and emerging trends in the energy sector will shape the trajectory and uptake of the DRen market over the forecast.

Technology has played a crucial role in defining the future of disruption in this sector. Although renewable investments have achieved grid parity, the vibrant BTM distributed market has quickly taken shape, flooded with small and large solutions providers. DRen generation has matured around the world’s fasted growing economies. Diesel generators have long been the equipment of choice for BTM and onsite power generation. However, falling solar and storage costs have made it possible to provide a levelized cost of electricity lower than that of diesel and conventional fuel generators. DRen energy sources include generation technologies such as solar PV, wind, biogas, and biofuels.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global market for DRen technologies. The study provides an analysis of the market issues, including drivers and challenges, related to BTM solar PV, small-scale wind, and other renewables. Global market forecasts, broken out by region and application, extend through 2028. The report also examines the key technological enablers related to DRen deployments.

Pages 67
Tables | Charts | Figures 55
  • What are the key drivers of distributed renewable (DRen) deployments?
  • What are the primary applications of DRen globally as well as regionally?
  • Which markets will offer the most growth between 2019 and 2028?
  • How quickly will global DRen energy revenue grow through 2028?
  • Which DRen market segments are growing fastest and in which regions?
  • How do market opportunities compare between C&I versus residential customers?
  • Which DRen business model will be key for future renewables-driven energy services?
  • Distributed renewable technology vendors
  • Microgrid project developers, systems integrators, and financiers
  • Distributed energy resources (DER) vendors and solutions providers
  • Demand response (DR) technology manufacturers
  • Energy service companies (ESCOs)
  • Energy and sustainability managers

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Introduction

1.1.1   DRen Benefits

1.1.2   DRen Market Drivers

1.1.3   DRen Market Barriers

1.2   Global Forecast

2. Market Issues

2.1   Defining Distributed Renewables

2.1.1   Distributed Solar PV

2.1.2   Distributed Wind

2.1.3   Other Renewables

2.2   Market Drivers

2.2.1   Declining CAPEX

2.2.2   Innovative and Integrated Business Models

2.2.3   High Local Electricity Prices

2.2.4   Proliferation of Microgrids

2.2.5   Solar Plus Technologies

2.2.6   Regional Incentives

2.3   Market Barriers

2.3.1   Renewable Energy Variability

2.3.2   Disintegrated Solutions

2.3.3   Customer Awareness

2.3.4   Ancillary Market Design Barriers

2.3.5   Digitization of DRen

2.3.6   Potential Risks Across Financial Models

2.4   Business Model Innovations

2.4.1   The Shift from Prosumer to Distributed Gentailer

2.4.2    The Shift from Technology Innovator to Retail Bundler

2.4.3   The Shift from Pure Service Provider to Integrated Value Provider

3. Technology Issues

3.1   Digitization of DRen Support Asset Performance

3.2   Solar Oversupply and Price Reductions

3.3   Hybridization of DRen Plus Storage

3.4   DER Management Systems Still Maturing

3.5   DR Expands Beyond Traditional Energy Segments

4. Key Industry Players

4.1   SunPower

4.2   SMA

4.3   Sunrun

4.4   Tesla

4.5   Vivint Solar

4.6   Bergey Windpower Co.

4.7   United Wind

4.8   Enphase Energy

4.9   Huawei

4.10   Solare Datensysteme GmbH (Solar-Log)

4.11   SolarEdge Technologies

4.12   Schneider Electric

5. Market Forecasts

5.1   Introduction

5.1.1   Segmentation

5.2   Global Forecast

5.2.1   North America

5.2.1.1   Arizona

5.2.1.2   California

5.2.1.3   New York

5.2.2    Europe

5.2.2.1   France

5.2.2.2   Germany

5.2.2.3   Italy

5.2.2.4   Spain

5.2.2.5   UK

5.2.3   Asia Pacific

5.2.3.1   Australia

5.2.3.2   China

5.2.3.3   Japan

5.2.3.4   India

5.2.4   Latin America

5.2.5   Middle East & Africa

5.3   Conclusions and Recommendations

5.3.1   OEMs and Solutions Providers

5.3.2   Government and Regulators

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study and Methodology

  • Annual Installed Total DRen Capacity and Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Total DRen Capacity by Application, World Markets: 2019-2028
  • Annual Small and Medium Wind Turbine Installed Capacity by Power Class, US: 2005-2016
  • Comparison of Residential Solar PV Installation Costs, US, Japan, Australia, and Germany: 2014, 2017
  • Estimated Levelized Cost of Energy of a Solar Installation at Different System Costs and Irradiance Levels (Pre-Tax)
  • Distributed Solar Installed System Prices (Non-Weighted Average) by Component, World Markets: 2011-2027
  • Annual Installed DRen Capacity by Technology, World Markets: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Total DRen Power Capacity by Application, World Markets: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Total DRen Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Total DRen Power Capacity and Revenue by Application, North America: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Total DRen Power Capacity and Revenue by Application, Europe: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Total DRen Power Capacity and Revenue by Application, Asia Pacific: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Total DRen Power Capacity and Revenue by Application, Latin America: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Total DRen Power Capacity and Revenue by Application, Middle East & Africa: 2019-2028
  • DRen as Represented on the DER Value Chain
  • Distributed Solar in the US
  • Standalone Solar Versus Solar Plus Approach
  • Emerging Innovative Business Models across the Value Chain
  • Electricity Cost, Selected Markets: 2018
  • Annual Installed Total DRen Revenue by Application, World Markets: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed DRen Revenue by Technology, World Markets: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Total DRen Capacity by Application, World Markets: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed DRen Capacity by Technology, World Markets: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Total DRen Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Total DRen Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Total DRen Revenue by Application, North America: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Total DRen Revenue by Technology, North America: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Total DRen Capacity by Application, North America: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed DRen Capacity by Technology, North America: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Centralized Renewable Capacity by Technology, North America: 2019-2028
  • DRen as Percentage of Centralized Renewable Capacity, North America: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Total DRen Revenue by Application, Europe: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed DRen Revenue by Technology, Europe: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Total DRen Capacity by Application, Europe: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed DRen Capacity by Technology, Europe: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Centralized Renewable Capacity by Technology, Europe: 2019-2028
  • DRen as Percentage of Centralized Renewable Capacity, Europe: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Total DRen Revenue by Application, Asia Pacific: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed DRen Revenue by Technology, Asia Pacific: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Total DRen Capacity by Application, Asia Pacific: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed DRen Capacity by Technology, Asia Pacific: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Centralized Renewable Capacity by Technology, Asia Pacific: 2019-2028
  • DRen as Percentage of Centralized Renewable Capacity, Asia Pacific: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Total DRen Revenue by Application, Latin America: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed DRen Revenue by Technology, Latin America: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Total DRen Capacity by Application, Latin America: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed DRen Capacity by Technology, Latin America: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Centralized Renewable Capacity by Technology, Latin America: 2019-2028
  • DRen as Percentage of Centralized Renewable Capacity, Latin America: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Total DRen Revenue by Application, Middle East & Africa: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed DRen Revenue by Technology, Middle East & Africa: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Total DRen Capacity by Application, Middle East & Africa: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed DRen Capacity by Technology, Middle East & Africa: 2019-2028
  • Annual Installed Centralized Renewable Capacity by Technology, Middle East & Africa: 2019-2028
  • DRen as Percentage of Centralized Renewable Capacity, Middle East & Africa: 2019-2028
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