3Q 2019

Electric Buses

Electrified Transit, School, Shuttle, and Coach Buses: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts

The global medium and heavy duty bus market has been dominated by internal combustion engine vehicles. However, electric drive technologies are becoming more competitive. In addition to falling costs, electric drive buses (e-buses) have the potential to be the leading vehicle segment of commercial vehicle electrification thanks to growing support from local, regional, and central governments. The adoption of e-buses will continue to rise as battery prices decline and a greater importance is placed on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants that are contributing to poorer air quality.

Fleets can take advantage of increasing government support to help surmount the high upfront costs associated with e-buses and the accompanying charging infrastructure. Fleets across the transit, coach, shuttle, and school segments can use e-buses to achieve their emissions and air quality targets, while improving their bottom line. These market conditions can enable e-buses to lead the way on the electrification of other commercial vehicle segments.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global bus market across electric powertrains (plug-in hybrids and battery electric), as well as vehicle weight (medium duty and heavy duty), vehicle type (transit, coach, school, and shuttle), and region. The study provides an analysis of the market issues, including opportunities, implementation challenges, and prominent market factors associated with e-buses. Global market forecasts for vehicle populations and sales are broken out by segment and region and extend though 2030. The report also examines the key technologies surrounding charging infrastructure, competitive alternative fuels, as well as key market participants.

Pages 50
Tables | Charts | Figures 35
  • What is the state of the market for electric drive buses (e-buses)?
  • How will factors such as energy prices, battery trends, emissions, and air quality standards affect the global bus market?
  • What are key drivers and barriers to electrification?
  • What are often-overlooked considerations when fleets electrify?
  • How can fleets overcome capital constraints?
  • How will vehicle to grid technologies affect the business case of e-buses?
  • Which segments are growing quickest—and why?
  • Which alternative fuels have the most potential to disrupt the market?
  • Vehicle OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers
  • Fleet managers
  • Public transit agencies
  • Private transportation companies
  • Electric vehicle charging companies
  • Local, regional, and central government agencies
  • Utilities
  • Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Introduction

1.2   Forecast Highlights

2. Market Issues

2.1   Introduction

2.2   Technologies

2.2.1   Powertrains

2.2.1.1   Plug-in Hybrid

2.2.1.2   Battery Electric

2.2.2   Vehicle Types

2.2.2.1   Transit Buses

2.2.2.2   Coach Buses

2.2.2.3   School Buses

2.2.2.4   Shuttle Buses

2.3   Market Drivers

2.3.1   Emissions

2.3.2   Battery Trends

2.3.3   Maintenance

2.3.4   Cost of Energy

2.3.4.1   V2G Revenue Potential

2.3.5   Government Incentives

2.3.5.1   North America

2.3.5.2   Europe

2.3.5.3   China

2.4   Market Challenges

2.4.1   Infrastructure

2.4.1.1   Infrastructure Costs

2.4.1.2   Spatial Constraints

2.4.2   Capital Constraints

2.4.3   Alternative Fuel Competition

2.4.3.1   Hydrogen Fuel Cell

2.4.3.2   Natural Gas

2.4.3.3    Renewable Diesel

2.4.3.4    Propane Autogas

3. Key Industry Players

3.1   E-Bus Manufacturers

3.1.1   BYD Motors

3.1.2   Proterra

3.1.3   Blue Bird

3.1.4   Yutong

3.2   Infrastructure Developers

3.2.1   ABB

3.2.2   Heliox

3.2.3   Siemens

3.2.4   SUN Mobility

3.2.5   WAVE IPT

4. Market Forecasts

4.1   Introduction

4.2   Forecast Methodology

4.2.1   Scenarios

4.2.2   Limitations

4.3   Market Forecasts

4.3.1   MHD Bus Sales by Type

4.3.2   E-Bus Sales by Powertrain

4.3.3   E-Bus Sales by Type

4.3.4   E-Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2019-2030

4.3.5   E-Bus Revenue

4.4   Conclusions and Recommendations

4.4.1   Recommendations for Industry

4.4.2   Recommendations for Fleets

5. Acronym and Abbreviation List

6. Table of Contents

7. Table of Charts and Figures

8. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • E-Bus Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2019-2030
  • MHD Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • MHD Bus Sales by Type, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • E-Bus Sales by Powertrain, World Markets: 2018-2029
  • E-Bus Sales by Type, World Markets: 2018-2029
  • E-Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2018-2029
  • E-Bus Revenue, World Markets: 2019-2030
  • E-Bus Data Analysis Geographic Detail
  • Annual Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2019-2030
  • Annual Bus Sales by Weight Class, World Markets: 2019-2030
  • Annual Bus Sales by Powertrain, World Markets: 2019-2030
  • Annual Bus Sales by Type, World Markets: 2019-2030
  • Annual Bus Population by Region, World Markets: 2019-2030
  • Annual Bus Population by Weight Class, World Markets: 2019-2030
  • Annual Bus Population by Powertrain, World Markets: 2019-2030
  • Annual Bus Population by Type, World Markets: 2019-2030
  • Annual E-Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2019-2030
  • Annual E-Bus Sales by Weight Class, World Markets: 2019-2030
  • Annual E-Bus Sales by Powertrain, World Markets: 2019-2030
  • Annual E-Bus Sales by Type, World Markets: 2019-2030
  • Annual MD E-Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2019-2030
  • Annual MD PHEV Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2019-2030
  • Annual MD BEV Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2019-2030
  • Annual HD PEV Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2019-2030
  • Annual HD PHEV Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2019-2030
  • Annual HD BEV Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2019-2030
  • Dimensions of Analysis
  • Bus Weight (or Length) by Category in Key Countries/Regions
  • Common Bus Type by Class
  • Electric School Bus V2G Studies
  • North American Incentive Programs
  • European Incentive Programs
  • Charging Infrastructure Cost by Type
  • E-Bus Companies by Bus Segment
  • E-Bus Charging Infrastructure Companies by Charging Type
Choose a License Type

(1-5 users)

(Unlimited users)

$3,950 USD
$5,925 USD