3Q 2016

Emerging Mobility Services

The personal transportation market is evolving, with more options available for an increasing share of consumers. Examples include new ways of planning trips, automated systems, and shared vehicle services. A nexus of trends related to emerging mobility services is converging to influence the future transportation market: autonomous vehicles, the consumer shift, multimodal integration solutions, and urban versus rural/suburban population distribution. From parking habits to the number of vehicles in operation, these trends and related factors will have far ranging effects on the transportation landscape.

Each of these factors will affect how consumers choose to travel in the future. Current transportation services will evolve—especially shared services—and innovative ones will arise to take the place of personal vehicle ownership. Emerging mobility services could lead to a reduction in the overall number of vehicles needed as well as changes in the number of vehicle miles and personal miles traveled. The key questions in trying to determine the impacts of emerging mobility services are: How will the growth and intersection of these new technologies affect the transportation space? What are the signposts to look for as the market evolves to include these emerging mobility services in terms of impacts on personal travel and the global vehicle fleet?

This Navigant Research report examines the trends associated with emerging mobility services most likely to influence the future transportation market. Insight is provided into how the four major trends could transform the global transportation market. The report also introduces a potential way to measure and model the vehicle and travel impacts as emerging transportation options lead to shifts in transportation types chosen by consumers.

Pages 14
Tables | Charts | Figures 6

  • What are some of the key impacts of fully automated driving on the transportation market?
  • How will mobility services and self-driving vehicles affect each other?
  • What are the potential spillover effects from emerging mobility services on vehicles and travel patterns?
  • What are the key considerations for modeling emerging mobility future scenarios?
  • What challenges will emerging mobility services face as they enter the market?
  • What vehicle and infrastructure technologies should be monitored that might support the future transportation market?

  • Automotive suppliers
  • Automotive OEMs
  • Fuel industry modelers
  • Automotive industry modelers
  • Transportation analysts
  • Investor community

1. Executive Summary

2. Market Trends

2.1  Autonomous Vehicles

2.2  The Consumer Shift

2.3  Multimodal Integration Solutions

2.4  Urban versus Suburban Population Growth

2.5  A Potential Framework for Travel Impacts

2.6  Longer-Term/Other Impacts of Emerging Mobility Services

3. Conclusions and Recommendations

  • Autonomous-Capable Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Example of Multimodal Application on Smartphone (Moovel)
  • VMT and PMT Illustrated
  • Passenger Miles Traveled for Passenger Car/Light Duty Vehicle, United States: 1980-2014
  • Potential Parking Scenario for Automated Vehicles

  • Summary of Modeling Factors and Likely Impacts

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