4Q 2018

Fleet Electrification

Light, Medium, and Heavy Duty EVs in Fleets: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts

Fleet electrification has largely focused on the light duty vehicle (LDV) segment to date. However, recent developments with electric medium and heavy duty vehicles (MHDVs) point toward encouraging signs of future growth in that segment. For example, the 2017 introduction of the Tesla Semi, BYD’s debut of its refuse truck in 2018, and the success of electric buses in China over the last 4 years all show momentum toward larger fleet electrification. Many fleets have made commitments to use electricity in all or part of their vehicles in the next decade, including large MHDV fleets such as DHL, UPS, FedEx, and several city bus fleets in China.

Fleet electrification is being driven by battery innovations, energy economics, and government regulation of transportation pollution. Cost reductions in batteries and other plug-in EV (PEV) technologies are reducing the purchase price of PEVs. Simultaneously, oil prices are projected to rise in the near term, increasing the economic benefit of PEV fleets. In addition, governments are incentivizing PEV adoption with purchase incentives and emissions reduction goals. While the transportation industry is transforming its energy system, it is also being disrupted by innovations in automated vehicle systems and advances in battery energy density. Vehicle automation will likely encourage greater use of LDVs to augment alternative or public transportation modes and transform MHDV markets and uses.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global market for LD and MHD PEV fleet vehicles. The study provides an analysis of the market issues related to fleet electrification, including drivers like government policies and battery innovations and challenges with charging infrastructure. Global market forecasts, segmented by vehicle class and region, extend through 2030. The report also examines the key industry players related to fleet electrification and provides case studies of notable projects from around the globe.

Pages 43
Tables | Charts | Figures 32
  • Which regions will be key in pushing the adoption of fleet electrification?
  • How will light duty (LD) and medium/heavy duty (MHD) plug-in EV (PEV) population rates differ in the fleet sector?
  • How will LD and MHD PEV sales rates differ in the fleet sector?
  • Which companies are the key industry players pushing this market forward?
  • What examples of fleet electrification are already present in the market?
  • What are the global market drivers and challenges behind fleet electrification?
  • Fleet operators
  • Automobile OEM marketing managers
  • Vehicle aftermarket and service managers
  • Tier One supplier marketing managers
  • EV charging equipment marketing managers
  • Electric utilities
  • State, province, and city urban planners
  • Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Introduction

1.2   Forecast Highlights

2. Market Issues

2.1   Introduction

2.2   Scope

2.3   Fleets

2.4   Vehicles

2.5   Drivers

2.5.1   Battery Innovations

2.5.2   Government Policies

2.5.3   Energy Economics

2.6   Challenges

2.6.1   Infrastructure

2.7   Vehicle Automation

3. Key Industry Players

3.1   Introduction

3.2   Electric Fleet Management Services

3.2.1   ChargePoint

3.2.2   Enel X

3.2.3   FleetCarma

3.2.4   Maplesoft

3.2.5   Nuvve

3.3   Infrastructure OEMs

3.3.1   ABB

3.3.2   Siemens

3.4   Vehicle OEMs

3.4.1   BYD

3.4.2   First Priority GreenFleet

3.4.3   Nikola Motor Company

3.4.4   Tesla

3.4.5   Wrightspeed

3.4.6   Workhorse Group

3.4.7   StreetScooter

3.4.8   Other OEMs

4. Case Studies

4.1   Introduction

4.1.1   Parcel Delivery

4.1.1.1   FedEx

4.1.1.2   UPS

4.1.2   Busing

4.1.2.1   Transit

4.1.2.2   School

4.1.3   Mobility as a Service

4.1.3.1   Ride-Hailing

4.1.3.2   Government

5. Market Forecasts

5.1   Introduction

5.2   Methodology

5.2.1   Battery Prices

5.2.2   Oil Prices

5.2.3   Constraints

5.3   Results

5.3.1   Conservative

5.3.2   Base

5.3.3   Aggressive

5.4   Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • Fleet PEV Sales by Vehicle Class, Base Scenario, China: 2018-2030
  • LD BEV Battery Pack Price Actual and Projections, World Markets: 2010-2030
  • Fleet Vehicle Population by Vehicle Class, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Fleet PEV Population by Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Fleet PEV Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Fleet PEV Population by Vehicle Class, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Fleet PEV Sales by Vehicle Class, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Fleet PEV Population by Vehicle Class, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Fleet PEV Sales by Vehicle Class, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Fleet PEV Population by Vehicle Class, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Fleet PEV Sales by Vehicle Class, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Regional Segmentation
  • Efficiency Standards, 2000-2035
  • Vehicle Definitions
  • Common Fleets and Supporting Vehicles
  • Other Medium and Heavy Duty EV OEMs
  • LD Vehicle Fleet Population by Region, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • LD Vehicle Fleet Sales by Region, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • MHD Vehicle Fleet Population by Region, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • MHD Vehicle Fleet Sales by Region, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • LD PEV Fleet Population by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • LD PEV Fleet Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • LD PEV Fleet Population by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • LD PEV Fleet Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • LD PEV Fleet Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • LD PEV Fleet Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • MHD PEV Fleet Population by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • MHD PEV Fleet Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • MHD PEV Fleet Population by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • MHD PEV Fleet Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • MHD PEV Fleet Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • MHD PEV Fleet Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
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