1Q 2019

Market Data: Automated Driving Vehicles

Global Consumer and Commercial Market Forecasts: 2018-2035

Throughout 2018, automated driving technology continued to inch toward a commercial launch at scale. However, scale remains a relative term in the overall context of the automotive industry. As the companies developing this technology continue to grapple with the realities of reliable functionality in a broad range of real world conditions, new questions continue to be raised about the robustness of the technology and the viability of different business models. Early 2018 saw the first fatality attributed directly to a failure of automated driving technology among other automated vehicle (AV)-related accidents.

Despite those incidents, leading companies have continued to prepare for the commercial launch of geofenced automated mobility services using Level 4 highly automated vehicles (HAVs). Deployments will be limited to select cities in the early 2020s before expanding more rapidly later in the decade. There is potential for significant societal benefits like improved safety, reduced congestion, greater adoption of electrification, and the ability to repurpose land currently set aside to park idle vehicles. Cities are actively investigating how to integrate automated vehicles into the mobility ecosystem to ensure equitable benefits and commercial viability for as many stakeholders as possible. Coordination will be needed to minimize downsides like increased empty vehicles miles traveled.

This Navigant Research report provides projections of the size of regional markets for consumer and commercial vehicles with highly automated driving capability. Global market sales and vehicle population projections for consumer vehicles under three different scenarios extend through 2035. The report also examines the breakdown by category for commercial vehicles with driving automation, separating medium and heavy duty trucks and medium and heavy duty buses.

Pages 42
Tables | Charts | Figures 70
  • When will the first automated driving vehicles come to market?
  • How fast will annual sales grow for automated consumer and commercial vehicles?
  • How will different levels of automated driving affect the global vehicle population?
  • When will various world regions adopt automated driving vehicles?
  • Which commercial vehicle categories will experience the strongest growth in automated driving?
  • Fleet managers
  • Automotive OEMs
  • Truck and bus manufacturers
  • Automotive industry suppliers
  • Insurance companies
  • Government agencies
  • City managers
  • Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Market Overview

1.2   Scope

1.3   Market Forecasts

2. Data Assumptions

2.1   Overall Forecast Modeling

2.2   Consumer Vehicle Market

2.3   Commercial Vehicle Market

3. Market Forecasts

3.1   Introduction

3.2   Consumer Vehicles

3.2.1   Global Forecasts

3.2.2   Regional Forecasts

3.2.2.1   North America

3.2.2.2   Western Europe

3.2.2.3   Eastern Europe

3.2.2.4   Asia Pacific

3.2.2.5   Latin America

3.2.2.6   Middle East & Africa

3.3   Commercial Vehicles

3.3.1   Forecasts by Vehicle Category

3.3.1.1   Bus Forecasts by Region

3.3.1.2   Truck Forecasts by Region

3.3.2   Global Breakdown

3.4   Conclusions and Recommendations

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List

5. Table of Contents

6. Table of Charts and Figures

7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual LD Automated Driving by Level, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual LDV Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual LDV Population by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual LDV Population by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, North America: 2018-2035
  • Annual LDV Population by Scenario, North America: 2018-2030
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Western Europe: 2018-2035
  • Annual LDV Population by Scenario, Western Europe: 2018-2030
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Eastern Europe: 2018-2035
  • Annual LDV Population by Scenario, Eastern Europe: 2018-2030
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Asia Pacific: 2018-2035
  • Annual LDV Population by Scenario, Asia Pacific: 2018-2030
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Latin America: 2018-2035
  • Annual LDV Population by Scenario, Latin America: 2018-2030
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Middle East & Africa: 2018-2035
  • Annual LDV Population by Scenario, Middle East & Africa: 2018-2030
  • Annual Commercial Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Commercial Vehicle Sales by Vehicle Type, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ MD Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ HD Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ MD Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ HD Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ Commercial Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ Commercial Vehicle Sales by Vehicle Type, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ Commercial Vehicle Sales Penetration by Vehicle Type, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual LDV Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 2 LDV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 3 LDV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 0-1 LDV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual LDV Population by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual LDV Population by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, North America: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Scenario, North America: 2018-2035
  • Annual LDV Population by Scenario, North America: 2018-2030
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Western Europe: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Scenario, Western Europe: 2018-2035
  • Annual LDV Population by Scenario, Western Europe: 2018-2030
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Eastern Europe: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Scenario, Eastern Europe: 2018-2035
  • Annual LDV Population by Scenario, Eastern Europe: 2018-2030
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Asia Pacific: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Scenario, Asia Pacific: 2018-2035
  • Annual LDV Population by Scenario, Asia Pacific: 2018-2030
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Latin America: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Scenario, Latin America: 2018-2035
  • Annual LDV Population by Scenario, Latin America: 2018-2030
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Middle East & Africa: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Scenario, Middle East & Africa: 2018-2035
  • Annual LDV Population by Scenario, Middle East & Africa: 2018-2030
  • Annual Commercial Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Commercial Vehicle Sales by Vehicle Type, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ MD Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ HD Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ MD Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ HD Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ Commercial Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ Commercial Vehicle Sales by Vehicle Type, World Markets: 2018-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ Commercial Vehicle Sales Penetration by Vehicle Type, World Markets: 2018-2035
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