4Q 2018

Market Data: Electric Trucks and Buses

Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks and Buses with Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid, Battery Electric, and Fuel Cell Powertrains: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts

The market for electric trucks and buses is still young, but rapid developments in the industry and increasing market interest are setting a strong foundation for electrification to become the new norm. Navigant Research anticipates that global sales of electric drive medium and heavy duty vehicles (eMHDVs) will increase at a 9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2018 to 2030. However, if the forecasts exclude the results of China’s already aggressive push to electrify its bus market, which is the largest in the world, the growth rate is higher. Sales of eMHDVs in the rest of the world (excluding China) are expected to increase by nearly 17%.

There are challenges to the electrification of this market, particularly the heavy duty (HD) truck market. The current battery capacity for HD trucks falls short of the requirements for long-haul trucking applications, which prevents the use of electric trucks outside of fixed regional routes. Liquid natural gas (LNG) is the only other alternative fuel option for HD trucks as OEMs try to meet higher carbon emissions standards. Other technologies are poised to disrupt the eMHDV market by improving vehicle efficiency without changing the powertrain or fuel. Freight matching services could improve efficiency by reducing the occurrence of less than full loads. Incorporating platooning technologies could also increase a fleet’s fuel efficiency.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global market for electric drive trucks and buses, with a focus on four powertrains: hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell. The study provides an analysis of the market issues, including opportunities, implementation challenges, and prominent market factors, associated with eMHDVs. Global market forecasts for vehicle populations and sales, segmented by powertrain, powertrain-fuel configuration, vehicle type, region, and scenario, extend through 2030. The report also examines the major technologies surrounding the vehicle electrification landscape, including alternative fuels, as well as the key market participants.

Pages 39
Tables | Charts | Figures 50
  • What is the state of the market for electric drive medium and heavy duty vehicles (eMHDVs)?
  • How will changing oil prices, battery prices, and fuel efficiency standards affect the MHDV market?
  • Why will a growing number of vehicles be electrified?
  • How and why do fuel retail costs vary by region?
  • Which electric drive vehicles are experiencing the highest growth in sales—and why?
  • What barriers are preventing eMHDVs from making inroads in the market?
  • Which alternative fuels have the most potential to disrupt the market?
  • Vehicle OEMs
  • Fleet managers
  • Oil & gas companies
  • Infrastructure developers
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Introduction

1.2   Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues

2.1   Introduction

2.2   Scope

2.2.1   Hybrid

2.2.2   Plug-In Hybrid

2.2.3   Battery Electric

2.2.4   Fuel Cell

2.3   Market Drivers

2.3.1   Battery Cost Projections

2.3.2   Energy

2.3.3   Efficiency Standards

2.4   Market Challenges

2.4.1   Infrastructure

2.4.2   Other Competing Alternative Fuels

3. Key Industry Players

4. Market Forecasts

4.1   Introduction

4.1.1   Scenarios

4.1.2   Limitations

4.2   Forecast Methodology

4.2.1   Vehicle Fleet

4.2.2   Vehicle Sales

4.2.3   PFC Distribution

4.2.3.1   Total Cost of Ownership

4.2.3.2   Constraints

4.2.3.2.1   Refueling Network

4.3   Vehicle Market

4.3.1   Trucks

4.3.2   Buses

4.4   Conservative Scenario

4.5   Aggressive Scenario

4.6   AFVs

4.7   Conclusions and Recommendations

4.7.1   Recommendations for Governments and Policymakers

4.7.2   Recommendations for OEMs

5. Acronym and Abbreviation List

6. Table of Contents

7. Table of Charts and Figures

8. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • Annual eMHDV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual AFV Sales by Powertrain, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • MHD Truck Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • MHD Bus Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual MHDV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Powertrain, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Gap between Base and Conservative Forecasts, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Gap between Base and Aggressive Forecasts, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual Vehicle Sales Market Share by PFC, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Geographic Detail
  • MHDV Fuel Efficiency Standards, World Markets: 2000-2035
  • Annual eMHDV Sales by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual eMHDV Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual eMHDV Sales by Vehicle Type and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • eMHDV Population by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • eMHDV Population by Powertrain and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • eMHDV Population by Vehicle Type and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Electric Drive Truck Population by Powertrain and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales Market Share by Powertrain and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales Market Share by Powertrain and Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, North America: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, Europe: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, China: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, India: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, OECD Asia Pacific: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, Rest of Asia Pacific: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, Latin America: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Truck Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, Middle East & Africa: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, North America: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, Europe: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, China: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, India: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, OECD Asia: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, Rest of Asia: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, Latin America: 2018-2030
  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, Middle East & Africa: 2018-2030
  • Annual Alternative Fuel Vehicle Sales by PFC, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual Alternative Fuel Vehicle Population by PFC, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual Alternative Fuel Vehicle Sales Market Share by PFC, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Annual Vehicle Sales Market Share by PFC, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2018-2030
  • Dimensions of Analysis
  • Truck Weight by Category in Key Countries/Regions
  • Common Truck Types by Class
  • Bus Weight (or Length) by Category in Key Countries/Regions
  • Common Bus Type by Class
  • Electric Drive Truck and Bus Companies
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