4Q 2019

Market Data: EV Geographic Forecast - North America

US and Canadian Light-Duty Plug-in EV Forecasts by Province, State, and Major Metropolitan Area

Despite slowed market growth, plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales are on track for another record year in North America and worldwide. PEVs are increasingly being considered by more consumers as a top choice for their next vehicle purchase, more states are implementing purchase incentives and are in talks to adopt zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) policies, and the price of PEV technologies continues to decline.

PEV populations have typically clustered around urban areas in states with incentives, with buyers being male, highly educated, and in upper income brackets. However, a shift in demographics and vehicle population is beginning to occur. Emissions, fuel efficiency, and ZEV policies are key in increasing adoption and awareness of PEVs.  

This Navigant Research report analyzes the impact that purchase incentives, battery pack prices, vehicle availability, and ZEV policies have on PEV population diffusion by state/province and metropolitan areas. Using the Vehicle Adoption Simulation Tool (VAST), Navigant Research believes battery pack prices, vehicle availability, purchase incentives, and ZEV policies are crucial to understanding PEV adoption, and can offer recommendations to stakeholders based on changes to these four forecast levels. New additions to the 2019 version of the Market Data: EV Geographic Forecasts report include charging port forecasts on a national and state/province level as a function of vehicle adoption in the area, as well as EV sales and population broken out by vehicle class (passenger cars and light trucks).

Pages 28
Tables | Charts | Figures 52
  • Which areas in North America are most likely to have the strongest penetration of plug-in EVs (PEVs)?
  • What is the projected size of the North American PEV market through 2030?
  • What are the impacts of state and regional market regulations and interventions on the market?
  • What are the emerging implications of increased PEV diffusion?
  • How will markets respond to increased PEV capability?
  • How will additional ZEV policies affect PEV sales and population?
  • How will vehicle adoption affect the amount of charging infrastructure?
  • Automobile OEM marketing managers
  • Vehicle aftermarket and service management
  • Tier One supplier marketing managers
  • EV charging equipment marketing managers
  • Electric utility management
  • State, province, and city urban planners
  • EV advocacy groups
  • Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Introduction

1.2   Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues

2.1   Introduction

2.1.1   Scenarios and Scope

2.1.2   Core Assumptions

2.1.2.1   Battery Innovations

2.1.2.2   Vehicle Charging Infrastructure

2.1.2.3   Policy Environment

2.1.2.3.1   PEV Purchase Incentives

2.1.2.4   Upcoming PEVs

3. Methodology

3.1   Vehicle Adoption Simulation Tool Model Overview

3.2   VAST Charging Siting Module Overview

4. Market Forecasts

4.1   Introduction

4.2   US

4.2.1   State Forecasts

4.2.2   Sub-State Forecasts

4.2.3   EV Charging Ports Forecast

4.3   Canada

4.3.1   Province Forecasts

4.3.2   EV Charging Ports Forecast

5. Acronym and Abbreviation List

6. Table of Contents

7. Table of Charts and Figures

8. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • LD PEV Population by Major Market, Base Scenario, North America: 2019-2030
  • LD PEV Population by Scenario, US: 2019-2030
  • LD PEV Population by Class and Scenario, US: 2030
  • LD PEV Sales by Top 10 States, Base Scenario, US: 2030
  • LD PEV Sales by Top 15 Metropolitan Areas, Base Scenario, US: 2030
  • EV Charging Ports by Charger Type, Base Scenario, US: 2019-2030
  • LD PEV Population by Scenario, Canada: 2019-2030
  • LD PEV Population by Class and Scenario, Canada: 2030
  • LD PEV Sales by Top 5 Provinces, Base Scenario, Canada: 2030
  • EV Charging Ports by Charger Type, Base Scenario, Canada: 2019-2030
  • LD Vehicle Sales by State or Province, North America: 2019-2030
  • LD Vehicle Population by State or Province, North America: 2019-2030
  • LD PEV Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, US: 2019-2030
  • LD PEV Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, Canada: 2019-2030
  • LD BEV Sales by State or Province, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2019-2030
  • LD BEV Sales by State or Province, Base Scenario, North America: 2019-2030
  • LD BEV Sales by State or Province, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2019-2030
  • LD PHEV Sales by State or Province, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2019-2030
  • LD PHEV Sales by State or Province, Base Scenario, North America: 2019-2030
  • LD PHEV Sales by State or Province, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2019-2030
  • LD PEV Sales by Class and Scenario, US: 2019-2030
  • LD PEV Sales by Class and Scenario, Canada: 2019-2030
  • LD PEV Population by Powertrain and Scenario, US: 2019-2030
  • LD PEV Population by Powertrain and Scenario, Canada: 2019-2030
  • LD BEV Population by State or Province, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2019-2030
  • LD BEV Population by State or Province, Base Scenario, North America: 2019-2030
  • LD BEV Population by State or Province, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2019-2030
  • LD PHEV Population by State or Province, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2019-2030
  • LD PHEV Population by State or Province, Base Scenario, North America: 2019-2030
  • LD PHEV Population by State or Province, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2019-2030
  • LD PEV Population by Class and Scenario, US: 2019-2030
  • LD PEV Population by Class and Scenario, Canada: 2019-2030
  • Top 50 Largest LD BEV Sales by Metro Area, Conservative Scenario, US: 2019-2030
  • Top 50 Largest LD BEV Sales by Metro Area, Base Scenario, US: 2019-2030
  • Top 50 Largest LD BEV Sales by Metro Area, Aggressive Scenario, US: 2019-2030
  • Top 50 Largest LD PHEV Sales by Metro Area, Conservative Scenario, US: 2019-2030
  • Top 50 Largest LD PHEV Sales by Metro Area, Base Scenario, US: 2019-2030
  • Top 50 Largest LD PHEV Sales by Metro Area, Aggressive Scenario, US: 2019-2030
  • Top 50 Largest LD BEV Population by Metro Area, Conservative Scenario, US: 2019-2030
  • Top 50 Largest LD BEV Population by Metro Area, Base Scenario, US: 2019-2030
  • Top 50 Largest LD BEV Population by Metro Area, Aggressive Scenario, US: 2019-2030
  • Top 50 Largest LD PHEV Population by Metro Area, Conservative Scenario, US: 2019-2030
  • Top 50 Largest LD PHEV Population by Metro Area, Base Scenario, US: 2019-2030
  • Top 50 Largest LD PHEV Population by Metro Area, Aggressive Scenario, US: 2019-2030
  • EV Charger Port Counts by Use Case and Scenario, US: 2019-2030
  • EV Charger Port Counts by Use Case and Scenario, Canada: 2019-2030
  • Residential EV Charger Port Counts by State or Province, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2019-2030
  • Residential EV Charger Port Counts by State or Province, Base Scenario, North America: 2019-2030
  • Residential EV Charger Port Counts by State or Province, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2019-2030
  • Non-residential EV Charger Port Counts by State or Province, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2019-2030
  • Non-residential EV Charger Port Counts by State or Province, Base Scenario, North America: 2019-2030
  • Non-residential EV Charger Port Counts by State or Province, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2019-2030

 

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