4Q 2018

Market Data: EV Geographic Forecasts – North America

US and Canadian Plug-In EV Forecasts by Province, State, and Major Metropolitan Area

Light duty plug-in EV (LD PEV) sales are on track for another record year in North America and worldwide. PEVs are increasingly being considered by consumers as a top choice for their next vehicle purchase. Additionally, more and more states and provinces in North America are implementing purchase incentives and are in talks to adopt zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) policies. Meanwhile, the price of PEV technologies continues to decline. With the advent of new business model opportunities such as automated vehicles and carsharing programs, the market share of PEVs will continue to rise.

A shift in demographics and vehicle population is occurring in North America. Many US states with ZEV policies continue to boast the largest PEV populations and highest sales numbers, such as California and New York, but states like Florida and Colorado are coming to the forefront of the PEV game. In Canada, Quebec adopted ZEV policies in late 2017, and Navigant Research anticipates the province will lead the country in LD PEV sales and population over the next decade. To meet emissions targets and climate-related goals, many groups across North America are pushing state legislators to pass ZEV policies to increase model availability and incentivize higher LD PEV adoption rates. Emissions, fuel efficiency, and ZEV policies are key drivers increasing the adoption and awareness of PEVs.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the impact of fuel efficiency and ZEV policies on LD PEV population diffusion in North America. The study leverages the Navigant Vehicle Adoption Simulation Tool (VAST) to create three forecast scenarios based on potential changes to the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) and ZEV regulations announced by the current US administration. Detailed geographic breakdowns of LD PEV sales and populations (in conservative, base, and aggressive scenarios) for the US and Canada are provided by geographic region, including state, province, US core-based statistical area, and Canadian census agglomeration area.

Pages 36
Tables | Charts | Figures 49
  • How will changes in policy affect light duty plug-in EV (LD PEV) adoption in North America?
  • Which areas in North America are most likely to have the strongest penetration of LD PEVs?
  • What is the projected size of the North American LD PEV market over the next 10 years?
  • What are the impacts of state and regional market regulations and interventions on the market?
  • What are the emerging implications of increased PEV diffusion?
  • How will markets respond to increased PEV capabilities?
  • Automobile OEMs
  • Vehicle aftermarket service providers
  • Tier One suppliers
  • EV charging equipment manufacturers
  • Electric utilities
  • State, province, and city urban planners
  • EV advocacy groups
  • Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Introduction

1.2   Market Forecast

2. Market Issues

2.1   Introduction

2.1.1   Geographic Scope

2.2   North American LD Vehicle Market Characteristics

2.2.1   Technology Availability and Innovation

2.2.2   Upcoming Vehicles

2.2.3   Charging Developments: Ultrafast Charging and VGI

2.2.4   Policy Environment

2.2.4.1   Prominent National/Local Incentives

2.2.4.2   US: CAFE/GHG Standards

2.2.4.3   Canada: CAFC/GHG Standards

2.2.4.4   ZEV Standards

3. Market Methodology

3.1   Overview

3.1.1   Limitations

3.2   Module 1

3.2.1   Purchase Cost

3.2.2   Operating Cost

3.2.3   TCO Summary

3.2.4   Infrastructure

3.2.5   Availability

3.2.6   Awareness

3.2.7   Vehicle Sales Summary

3.2.8   Vehicle Population

3.3   Module 2

3.3.1   Educational and Income

3.3.2   Housing

4. Market Forecasts

4.1   Introduction

4.2   US

4.2.1   States

4.2.2   PEV Population

4.2.3   Metropolitan Areas

4.3   Canada

4.3.1   Provinces

4.3.2   Metropolitan Areas

4.4   Conclusions and Recommendations

5. Acronym and Abbreviation List

6. Table of Contents

7. Table of Charts and Figures

8. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • LD PEV Sales by Major Market, Base Scenario, North America: 2018-2027
  • LD PEV Sales by Scenario, US: 2018-2027
  • LD PEV Sales by State and Powertrain, Base Scenario, Top 10 States, US: 2027
  • LD PEV Population by State and Powertrain, Base Scenario, Top 10 States, US: 2027
  • Top 15 LD PEV Populations by Metropolitan Area and Powertrain, Base Scenario, US: 2027
  • LD PEV Sales by Scenario, Canada: 2018-2027
  • LD PEV Sales by Province and Powertrain, Base Scenario, Top Four Provinces, Canada: 2027
  • LD PEV Population by Province and Powertrain, Base Scenario, Top Four Provinces, Canada: 2027
  • Top Five LD PEV Populations by Metropolitan Area, Base Scenario, Canada: 2027
  • VAST Analysis Relationships
  • Geographic Areas for Forecasts
  • Li-Ion Battery Pack Prices by Powertrain and Scenario, North America: 2018-2027
  • Passenger Car Average Fuel Efficiency by Fuel Type and Scenario, North America: 2018-2027
  • Retail Fuel Prices per Mile by State or Province, North America: 2018
  • Passenger Car Total Cost of Ownership per Mile by State or Province, Base Scenario, North America: 2018
  • Passenger Car Operating Expense per Mile by State or Province, Base Scenario, North America: 2018
  • LD Vehicle Sales by State or Province, North America: 2018-2027
  • LD Vehicle Population by State or Province, North America: 2018-2027
  • LD PEV Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, US: 2018-2027
  • LD PEV Sales by Powertrain and Scenario, Canada: 2018-2027
  • LD BEV Sales by State or Province, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2018-2027
  • LD BEV Sales by State or Province, Base Scenario, North America: 2018-2027
  • LD BEV Sales by State or Province, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2018-2027
  • LD PHEV Sales by State or Province, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2018-2027
  • LD PHEV Sales by State or Province, Base Scenario, North America: 2018-2027
  • LD PHEV Sales by State or Province, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2018-2027
  • LD PEV Population by Powertrain and Scenario, US: 2018-2027
  • LD PEV Population by Powertrain and Scenario, Canada: 2018-2027
  • LD BEV Population by State or Province, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2018-2027
  • LD BEV Population by State or Province, Base Scenario, North America: 2018-2027
  • LD BEV Population by State or Province, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2018-2027
  • LD PHEV Population by State or Province, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2018-2027
  • LD PHEV Population by State or Province, Base Scenario, North America: 2018-2027
  • LD PHEV Population by State or Province, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2018-2027
  • Top 100 Largest LD BEV Sales by Metro Area, Conservative Scenario, US: 2018-2027
  • Top 100 Largest LD BEV Sales by Metro Area, Base Scenario, US: 2018-2027
  • Top 100 Largest LD BEV Sales by Metro Area, Aggressive Scenario, US: 2018-2027
  • Top 100 Largest LD PHEV Sales by Metro Area, Conservative Scenario, US: 2018-2027
  • Top 100 Largest LD PHEV Sales by Metro Area, Base Scenario, US: 2018-2027
  • Top 100 Largest LD PHEV Sales by Metro Area, Aggressive Scenario, US: 2018-2027
  • 100 Largest LD BEV Populations Ranked by Metro Area, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2018-2027
  • 100 Largest LD BEV Populations Ranked by Metro Area, Base Scenario, North America: 2018-2027
  • 100 Largest LD BEV Populations Ranked by Metro Area, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2018-2027
  • 100 Largest LD PHEV Populations Ranked by Metro Area, Conservative Scenario, North America: 2018-2027
  • 100 Largest LD PHEV Populations Ranked by Metro Area, Base Scenario, North America: 2018-2027
  • 100 Largest LD PHEV Populations Ranked by Metro Area, Aggressive Scenario, North America: 2018-2027
  • Geographic Forecasting Areas
  • Li-Ion Battery Pack Prices by Powertrain, All Scenarios, North America: 2018 and 2027
  • Sample of PEV Purchase Rebates and Tax Credit Programs by State/Province
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