Set to pass 1 million sales in 2017, the global plug-in EV (PEV) market will notch 6 years of annual growth of 40% or more since PEVs were introduced in 2011. The rollout of long-range battery EVs (BEVs) at sub-$40,000 price points is boosting market adoption, and the global market should see continued growth at around 38% through 2020. While most of the global market can expect robust growth in the near term, the outlook in the US is less reliable since policies that have been vital to market growth are now in question.
If light duty vehicle (LDV) fuel efficiency policies and government subsidies are relaxed or removed in the US, domestic OEMs will find it difficult to keep pace with foreign automakers whose domestic governments are more ambitious in terms of PEV industry development. For example, Europe and China are increasingly strengthening market electrification policies. A handful of European countries are considering or designing policies to ban conventional vehicle sales before 2050, and China is introducing a zero emissions vehicle mandate. OEMs located in these markets typically have competitive advantages based on brand recognition or trade protections, among other reasons. Strong support in the domestic market can enable these OEMs to more speedily achieve gains in PEV technologies that would place US OEMs at a disadvantage.
This Navigant Research report analyzes the global market conditions and regulatory policies for PEVs. The study examines the next decade of the PEV market with a specific focus on how government interventions, vehicle economics, infrastructure, and automation will affect new markets and subsequent growth of the PEV population. The study provides 10-year sales and population forecasts of major regions by PEV powertrain type: battery EV (BEV) and plug-in hybrid EV (PHEV). Forecasts are provided by segment under conservative, base, and aggressive scenarios alongside historical data on BEV, PHEV, and overall LDV sales.