3Q 2018

Market Data: Solar PV Global Forecasts

Business Models, Regulations, Installed Capacity, System Prices, and Revenue for Distributed and Non-Distributed Solar PV

The global electric power industry is evolving from a model that relies on large centralized power plants owned by utilities to one that is more diverse in sources of generation and ownership of generation assets. The energy transformation continues to shape the global market for solar PV (SPV). Regulatory and legislative structures are evolving away from structures that incentivize widespread solar deployment to more nuanced mechanisms that enable solar growth to be controlled and directed. New markets are opening to SPV around the world as installation prices fall and best practices are developed for project financing.

Asia Pacific and—to a lesser extent—North America continue to shape the global SPV markets. China installed a world-leading 53.1 GW of SPV in 2017—more than half of global capacity additions—including 23.8 GW of distributed solar. Though growth is expected to slow in 2018, national support for solar remains strong in China. North America had a slower year, with the US installing only 11.8 GW (including 5.6 GW of distributed capacity). During the next 10 years, the solar market will continue to experience strong growth, led by China and North America. Yet, emerging markets—including India and Latin America—are already diversifying the playing field.

This Navigant Research report provides a forecast of installed capacity, system prices, and revenue for the global SPV market. The study covers both the distributed SPV (DSPV) and non-DSPV markets and highlights emerging business models that will shape future market developments. Global market forecasts, broken out by country, region, and segment, extend through 2027. The report also examines key legislative and regulatory trends that affect the SPV industry and influence its future growth.
Pages 32
Tables | Charts | Figures 29
  • How much solar PV (SPV) capacity will be installed worldwide from 2018 to 2027?
  • What percentage of installed PV will be distributed versus non-distributed (utility-scale)?
  • What are the leading and emerging markets for SPV deployments in 2018?
  • What regulatory and structural changes will shape the development of the global PV market over the next 10 years?
  • How are SPV procurement mechanisms evolving as global markets mature?
  • What business models will create opportunities for distributed PV over the next 10 years?
  • Solar developers and installers
  • Solar loan providers
  • Commercial power users
  • Government agencies
  • Nongovernmental organizations
  • Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Introduction

1.2   Key Trends in the SPV Market

1.3   SPV Market Forecast

2. Market Issues

2.1   Introduction

2.2   Grid Parity

2.3   Legislative/Regulatory Mandates

2.3.1   Solar Tenders and Competitive Auctions

2.3.2   FITs

2.3.2.1   North America

2.3.2.2   Europe

2.3.2.3   Asia Pacific

2.3.3   Net Metering Policies

2.3.4   Renewable Energy Certificates

2.3.5   US Section 201 Tariffs

3. Market Forecasts

3.1   Introduction

3.1.1   Segmentation

3.2   Global SPV Forecasts

3.2.1   North America

3.2.2   Europe

3.2.3   Asia Pacific

3.2.4   Rest of World

3.2.4.1   Latin America

3.2.4.2   Middle East

3.2.4.3   Africa

3.3   Conclusions and Recommendations

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List

5. Table of Contents

6. Table of Charts and Figures

7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • Annual SPV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2018-2027
  • DSPV Installed System Prices (Non-Weighted Average) by Component, World Markets: 2011-2027
  • Comparison of Residential SPV Installation Costs, US, Japan, Australia, and Germany: 2014, 2017
  • Residential vs. Commercial SPV Installation Costs, US: 2017
  • Estimated Levelized Cost of Energy at Different System Costs and Irradiance Levels (Pre-Tax)
  • Annual SPV Installed Capacity by Type of Installation, World Markets: 2018-2027
  • Annual SPV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, North America: 2018-2027
  • Annual SPV Installed Capacity by Segment, US: 2018-2027
  • Annual SPV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Select Country, Europe: 2018-2027
  • Annual SPV Installed Capacity by Segment, China: 2018-2027
  • Annual SPV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Select Country, Asia Pacific: 2018-2027
  • Annual SPV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Region, Latin America, Middle East, and Africa: 2018-2027
  • IRS Modifications to ITC Extension for Solar Projects
  • DSPV System Prices (Non-Weighted Average) by Component, World Markets: 2011-2027
  • Average SPV Installed Price (Non-Weighted) by System Size and Region, World Markets: 2011-2027
  • Estimated Levelized Cost of Energy at Different System Costs and Irradiance Levels (Pre-Tax)
  • Countries at Grid Parity, World Markets: 2016
  • Comparison of Residential SPV Installation Costs, US, Japan, Australia, and Germany: 2014, 2017
  • Residential vs. Commercial SPV Installation Costs, US: 2017
  • Annual SPV Installed Capacity by Country and Segment, World Markets: 2011-2027
  • Annual SPV Revenue by Country, World Markets: 2011-2027
  • Annual DSPV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2011-2027
  • Annual DSPV Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2011-2027
  • Annual Utility-Scale SPV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2011-2027
  • Annual Utility-Scale SPV Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2011-2027
  • Percentage of Annual DSPV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2011-2027
  • Percentage of Annual Utility Scale SPV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2011-2027
  • Annual Distributed and Utility-Scale SPV Installed Capacity, World Markets: 2011-2027
  • Annual Distributed and Utility-Scale SPV Installed Capacity, Percentage of Global Installations, and Revenue, Rest of World: 2011-2027
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